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Disturbing Trend that Coach has to correct immediately

goru7

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Dec 12, 2005
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Having watched every game in person or on TV except for Fordham, a really unusual situation has occurred in our last 4 games. First the good news before the bad. In the first half of Miami, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Fordham, this young and mostly inexperienced team with talent has gotten out to 10 point first half leads and even more impressively 3 of those games have been on the road . For those who have followed us forever on the road, first half leads are very rare so this team has the talent to get ahead of ranked teams and unranked teams. That bodes well for this season and next.

Now the bad disturbing trend. Leaving Michigan State aside because that 10 point lead was right out of the gate, the other 3 games at Miami, at Wisconsin and at Fordham we were up 10 more than halfway through the half or at late as the under 8 timeout. Actually just checked Miami we were only up 6 with 2 plus and turned the ball over up to the half. But Wisconsin and Fordham and the end of the half against Michigan State we did not put our throat on them and were only up 4 at Miami, down 1 against Michigan State and clearly outplayed them and should have been up 6-8, up 5 against Wisconsin and Fordham with identical 31-26 scores.
Now even worse, we gave up the lead in all 4 games either by the first timeout or the under 12. We were careless, stopped attacking down low with our bigs, stopped guarding and even did not crash the boards like usual.
Now most people have heard that the last 4 minutes of the first half and first 4 minutes of the second half sets the tone and will tell you how tough a team we have . I hope Coach is seeing the same trend and if he has to change defenses, pound the ball down low to both Shaquille’s, and Myles by set plays , or switch his offensive sets because adjustments have been made at halftime , play Geo off the ball as the 2 guard or anything else to stop the funky 8-10 minutes that are critical to our success.
Interested in hearing what the board thinks are the problems and proposed solutions.
 
I do see that the team does well in the 1st half and fades in the 2nd half. It concerns be too.

IMO Pike is searching for the right combination to finish out.

In the Fordham game I keep waiting to Kiss or Baker to step up....get some attitude and tough it out.....kinda like Corey often "refused to lose" at the end of games.

Some one has to step up and be "that guy"......(I am hoping its KISS!)
 
Are we being more conservative in the second half, counting too much for scoring out of our sets rather than pushing the ball? That’s my impression.
 
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I do see that the team does well in the 1st half and fades in the 2nd half. It concerns be too.

IMO Pike is searching for the right combination to finish out.

In the Fordham game I keep waiting to Kiss or Baker to step up....get some attitude and tough it out.....kinda like Corey often "refused to lose" at the end of games.

Some one has to step up and be "that guy"......(I am hoping its KISS!)
The “attitude” thing is worth the comment. MM is the one who seems to have it, but it’ll probably take him to the middle of next year to own it. Maybe Ron, too.
 
Are we being more conservative in the second half, counting too much for scoring out of our sets rather than pushing the ball? That’s my impression.
I definitively see this as a game long problem as well. We should be pushing the ball as this is the best offensive transition team we have had in 10 years.
 
I wish they could figure out how to defend the top of the key pick and roll.
 
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We need to get out and run more. Pike said we would and we haven’t. The half court offense is a joke so scoring in transition is a necessity.
 
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I definitively see this as a game long problem as well. We should be pushing the ball as this is the best offensive transition team we have had in 10 years.

Last year we had Corey. I don't see us better this year in transition.
 
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Good post and I'm sure that it's a concern for Coach. I would guess that he's most concerned about the defense in the second halves. In the last three games, we've give up 39, 43, and 52. Good defense is supposed to be a benchmark for this team so, although we need more guys to step up on offense, I'd bet defense is the main focus in practice this week. And that'll lead to turnovers, stronger rebounding, and, consequently, better offense due to run-outs and more opportunities.
 
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The biggest trend that was clear going into the season would be an issue is the ability to stop ball and defend at the PG position. It’s going to be a disaster all year long. HOWEVER, the fix is already on the roster with Young. So while it’s inexcusable to not have a PG on the roster in year 3 at least it’s already been addressed.
 
Having watched every game in person or on TV except for Fordham, a really unusual situation has occurred in our last 4 games. First the good news before the bad. In the first half of Miami, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Fordham, this young and mostly inexperienced team with talent has gotten out to 10 point first half leads and even more impressively 3 of those games have been on the road . For those who have followed us forever on the road, first half leads are very rare so this team has the talent to get ahead of ranked teams and unranked teams. That bodes well for this season and next.

Now the bad disturbing trend. Leaving Michigan State aside because that 10 point lead was right out of the gate, the other 3 games at Miami, at Wisconsin and at Fordham we were up 10 more than halfway through the half or at late as the under 8 timeout. Actually just checked Miami we were only up 6 with 2 plus and turned the ball over up to the half. But Wisconsin and Fordham and the end of the half against Michigan State we did not put our throat on them and were only up 4 at Miami, down 1 against Michigan State and clearly outplayed them and should have been up 6-8, up 5 against Wisconsin and Fordham with identical 31-26 scores.
Now even worse, we gave up the lead in all 4 games either by the first timeout or the under 12. We were careless, stopped attacking down low with our bigs, stopped guarding and even did not crash the boards like usual.
Now most people have heard that the last 4 minutes of the first half and first 4 minutes of the second half sets the tone and will tell you how tough a team we have . I hope Coach is seeing the same trend and if he has to change defenses, pound the ball down low to both Shaquille’s, and Myles by set plays , or switch his offensive sets because adjustments have been made at halftime , play Geo off the ball as the 2 guard or anything else to stop the funky 8-10 minutes that are critical to our success.
Interested in hearing what the board thinks are the problems and proposed solutions.

I am with you 100% on the first half v. second half Jekyll and Hyde performance of this team. But, I disagree that we "stopped attacking down low with our bigs" in the second half. I have seen precious little attacking down low with our bigs in any half this year, so it's hard to stop doing something you're not doing. ;)
 
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Oh I have an entire theory based somewhat around this thread that I’m gonnna write about in the next day or two. Gonna be a doozy!!
 
Oh I have an entire theory based somewhat around this thread that I’m gonnna write about in the next day or two. Gonna be a doozy!!

Oh no. Is it theory? Backed by evidence?

Need to go back to Rice days where he would hit players with blocking pads in layup line.
 
wow......No doubt last year's team needed to score in transition over this year's team.

It's a bit of a chicken-or-egg thing though. Last year's team needed transition buckets because they were SO BAD in the halfcourt. This year's team is better in the halfcourt but IMO would still be better served to try and get more in transition.
 
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Last year we had Corey. I don't see us better this year in transition.
Corey is a one man fast break, but this team overall is better in transition.

The scoring droughts are rough still this year. The classic Rutgers stretch each game of struggling for buckets has continued
 
It's a bit of a chicken-or-egg thing though. Last year's team needed transition buckets because they were SO BAD in the halfcourt. This year's team is better in the halfcourt but IMO would still be better served to try and get more in transition.

Probably this goes for most teams. I agree, especially at home.

Do we have stats on Issa 3's in transition in his career?
 
The scoring droughts are rough still this year. The classic Rutgers stretch each game of struggling for buckets has continued

My eyes agree with you, but then I double back after the game and match our scoring vs. tempo (possessions) and there has been significant improvement over last year
 
It's a bit of a chicken-or-egg thing though. Last year's team needed transition buckets because they were SO BAD in the halfcourt. This year's team is better in the halfcourt but IMO would still be better served to try and get more in transition.

We’re better in the half court this year?
 
I think this is part of the deal with Pike. Saw some of it at SB with the conf title game losses. Team is going to play tough and get better but will poop the bed every so often.

Maybe some day a game like this against a stronger mid-major will be the bad loss that keeps RU out of the Dance. But I'm inclined to ride it out, will take the deal for now.
 
Oh no. Is it theory? Backed by evidence?

Need to go back to Rice days where he would hit players with blocking pads in layup line.

No Rice stuff (Most of that shit really didn’t bother me anyway..) but a theory with decades worth of evidence Ha ha ha!
 
Probably this goes for most teams. I agree, especially at home.

Do we have stats on Issa 3's in transition in his career?

Yes but they're flawed.

JR: 6-13 in transition, 9-21 not in transition
SO: 12-30 in transition, 32-91 not in transition (these stats are wrong somehow... this has a total of 121 attempts but his actual number is 116)
FR: 4-19 in transition, 26-80 not in transition (wrong again... he only had 93 attempts, this is crediting him with 99)
 
My eyes agree with you, but then I double back after the game and match our scoring vs. tempo (possessions) and there has been significant improvement over last year
Oh I do think we are better for sure than last year but we still have those droughts where we go for a long stretch without a bucket which is killer if we don't also balance that out with a run of some 3's which haven't been falling after a hot start to the season
 
absolutely...no doubt


Hmmm idk about that. I’ll look into it a bit further but so far in a 9 game schedule that is on average weaker than last year’s schedule (when you look at point in time vs last year’s full schedule) we have a lower offensive efficiency rating than last year.

I’ll look into transition offense a bit more but although we haven’t pushed it a ton I think this year’s team has been more efficient in transition than last year’s team which would support this year’s half court offense is not as good.

Either way we need to score in transition more problem is we don’t have anyone who can go coast to coast aside from Geo.
 
Just avoiding the stats and not knowing when the games occurred or not, I'm looking at 3 things that show we are improved on offense.

Overall 3 point attempts are up (not necessarily the overall shooting percentages of the shooters just yet)

I think we are getting better shots overall.....

Eugene's overall offensive game has expanded to the 3 point line, which is a key component going forward.

I am fairly confident that if Shaq Carter plays 20 minutes a game for all 9 games, our offensive output would be better number wise.

I'm also pretty certain that these numbers should evolve and change quickly up and down as the players get more minutes, more comfortable and how RU reacts to having teams take our 1st an 2nd options away more possessions as we get into conference play.

The ball is going to find it's way to the 4th or 5th options much more with this roster and that player is more than capable of scoring with this current roster VS limited offensive options in the halfcourt, to avoid turnovers and watching Sanders go to work....which made more sense than making an attempt to pass the ball to players that were not shooters or capable of scoring.
 
Thru 9 games this year
625 pts 617 possessions

Thru 9 games last year
635pts 628 possessions

Huge difference is strength of scedule, this year tougher
 
Just avoiding the stats and not knowing when the games occurred or not, I'm looking at 3 things that show we are improved on offense.

Overall 3 point attempts are up (not necessarily the overall shooting percentages of the shooters just yet)

I think we are getting better shots overall.....

Eugene's overall offensive game has expanded to the 3 point line, which is a key component going forward.

I am fairly confident that if Shaq Carter plays 20 minutes a game for all 9 games, our offensive output would be better number wise.

I'm also pretty certain that these numbers should evolve and change quickly up and down as the players get more minutes, more comfortable and how RU reacts to having teams take our 1st an 2nd options away more possessions as we get into conference play.

The ball is going to find it's way to the 4th or 5th options much more with this roster and that player is more than capable of scoring with this current roster VS limited offensive options in the halfcourt, to avoid turnovers and watching Sanders go to work....which made more sense than making an attempt to pass the ball to players that were not shooters or capable of scoring.

This year based on schedule to date we are making 7.9 3s a game on 22.2 attempts compared to 4.0 3s a game on 16.0 attempts. Definitive improvement. 35.5% vs 25%.

I don’t think we’re getting better shots because our efficiency numbers are down.

Carter needs to take big Shaqs minutes for certain.
 
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Looking only at top games out of the 9
FSU 73/70
Min 67/80
MSU 52/65
total 192/215 =.893

SJU 65/72
MSU 67/64
WISC 64/63
MIA 57/68
total 253/267 .947
 
Thru 9 games this year
625 pts 617 possessions

Thru 9 games last year
635pts 628 possessions

Huge difference is strength of scedule, this year tougher

My concern is this is more a result of the way the game is being played across the country rather than improvement. Our floor % is 6% lower than it was last year. But because we are now middle of the pack in terms of 3s attempted and made per game across 300+ teams our points are up. But efficiency is down. Points are up across the country on average.

But yes strength of schedule is much tougher so far this year than last.
 
Incorrect

Last year NCAA was 1.044
This year NCAA is 1.025

The median PPG 2017 72.9 and this year 73.1. Only a slight increase. Probably not enough to make the difference I suggested. Good notion to point out thanks FIG
 
points per possession...best metric to guage offense

Right so what I’m saying is our offensive efficiency is actually down this year compared to lastbut our shot selection, or better said our three point rate, is up from last year, but still drastically lagging amongst peers. So we’re scoring more points because we are playing catch-up to a nationwide trend but still far below the mean. Meanwhile we are scoring on less possessions than we did last year.

@Greene Rice FIG
 
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To add to that we are having 4 more offensive possessions per game than last year, yet rank 266th in country, and scoring .6ppg less than 2017 and haven’t played the bulk of our conference schedule yet.

@Greene Rice FIG
 
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