Fixing this season….here is what we need to do

[goru7]

This is an outstanding summary and probably the best post that I have read on the teams predicament right now

This is a great summary. The main thrust is our guard play. It has been beyond atrocious. They have been outplayed by any guards on other teams , Power 5 or cupcakes. They have to learn to pass, make the correct and good pass into the shooters pocket , learn to bounce pass effectively , learn to run the pick and roll properly and throw the lob properly , learn how to run a fast break , then how to penetrate and then dish out which is the best 3 to take , learn how to drive , use the backboard and pivot feet to convert a damn layup or guarantee getting fouled by putting their body into defender. Lastly , they have to learn how to shoot and make uncontested shot after shot. In other words , get the guards corrected and the entire team will elevate as Cliff, Aundre and Gavin all of a sudden will be explosive.
Pike has all guards in his staff . They have to fix the problems yesterday

 

[essexknight]

Do you think that statement applies to Dylan, Ace and the rest of the incoming class? If so, we could be in for a disappointing start next year.

I can’t speak to Harper and Bailey because I have not seen them play aside from a few clips. Those that have seen them play hold them in very high regard and feel that they will make an instant impact. I would still be patient with any freshman.

A good RU comparison for GG would probably be Rob Hodgson. The situation is not entirely the same because RH was a transfer and redshirted. But, RH had some growing pains as a freshman and developed into a really good player here. I think GG has more upside.

 

[bac2therac]

This is a great summary. The main thrust is our guard play. It has been beyond atrocious. They have been outplayed by any guards on other teams , Power 5 or cupcakes. They have to learn to pass, make the correct and good pass into the shooters pocket , learn to bounce pass effectively , learn to run the pick and roll properly and throw the lob properly , learn how to run a fast break , then how to penetrate and then dish out which is the best 3 to take , learn how to drive , use the backboard and pivot feet to convert a damn layup or guarantee getting fouled by putting their body into defender. Lastly , they have to learn how to shoot and make uncontested shot after shot. In other words , get the guards corrected and the entire team will elevate as Cliff, Aundre and Gavin all of a sudden will be explosive.
Pike has all guards in his staff . They have to fix the problems yesterday

The concept of team ball is absent. Players have been do undisciplined this year which is not a Pike trait. Have to work hard to win and this team doesn't

Not sure skating by Saturday is the wake up call though. A loss might have got the message through

 

[BillyC80]

I don’t know what “fixing this season “
Will bring us in the end game …but to maximizing the wins we have…while developing the roster for next year …here is what we need to do

1.) We need an alpha . Game one , right after, I said the elephant in the room was a leadership on the court . Who is the leader ….so how the rotation needs to be reconstructed needs to start with that …leading to point 2….

2.) Roll the ball to zero. I have gone hot and cold on Derek this year , but WE NEED backcourt scoring and he can provide it. Yes, it comes as a risk of sone defensive issues. Yes it comes on him sometimes not making the extra pass. But I really think a lot of this is solved with more experience . I have seen nothing from him and his character that says he isn’t willing or he is selfish and won’t pass. More Experience fixed this . We need to roll the ball to him …

3.) cohesion on offense and defense needs to be fixed ….it’s so choppy on both ends. A lot of the rebounding issues is being a half step behind on rotation that has out of rebounding positions on the misses….sone of this gets fixed with better cohesion. On offense it’s also , a lot of mistiming on the motion offense . …whixh leads to the next two ponts

4.) shorten the play book on defense. We are trying to do too much . Sone games , besides playing five (man), we mix sone zone and mix 2-2-1 press in. Scrap the zone , and limit the press . We need to get better on core value defense and rotation timing (whixh really helps the rebounding )….so if that means less press and scrapping the zone ….to be more cohesive on defense , do it.

5.) shorten the bench . The playing 10 guys …needs to end. This is a big part of the mistiming on offense and defense ….we need to shorten the bench. I’ll say this until the cow comes home, to score 75 in a game , it means you need an average of 15 points per 40 minutes of play …so if you are playing minutes , and you don’t get your average , you need to be affecting the game on other ways

Derek needs 28 (he will get 11 ppg with three minutes , and potentially a little more )

Jmike needs 26 (he will probably get less than 9.7 ppg, probably 7.5 -8.0 ppg , but can make up for it with defense )

Mag needs 26 (he will get a little less than 9.7 ppg , probably 8-9 ppg , but will make up for it on defense

Hyatt needs 28 (and will get his number …11 ppg )

Cliff needs 30l (and will likely exceed the 11.76 ppg in bjs 30 minutes)

So the question becomes …how do we finish the bench off with the remaining 62 minutes

Shorten the bench means

- extended minutes for Gavin …24. He will get 8 ppg in those 24 and be better for the things for the experience

-no chol. I’ve seen enoogh

- no Palmquist . I’ve seen enoogh

- no wolf except for 10 minutes to five cliff a break. We hope Ogoble can take his minutes away …because he is not an answer

-remaining 28 minutes for austin and Noah, both of which are not the answer . And if jerimah gets eligible …he takes most of the remaining 28 minute .

This gets us a 65-67 ppg average in big ten play …and will allow us to hang around most nights , like the last few seasons

I could go on with more …but I think this gets the point across

Time for pike to bring out his quote

“Play the best and fair to the rest “

This does this ….shorten the bench and simply what we are going to do

Regarding item #5, Pike has comprised this team with a primary point guard and primary center, and then other guys who are versatile at two positions, kinda like this:
1: JMike
1/2: Derek, Noah
2/3: Gavin, Austin
3/4: Aundre, Mag
4/5: Woolf, Oskar
5: Cliff

If Ogbole plays, he can be a pure backup 5 and Mag can be a pure 4, Oskar sits. If JWill plays, Austin sits.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Someone show me something that will make me be confident Ogoble is an upgrade over Wollfolk

 

[zappaa]

Regarding item #5, Pike has comprised this team with a primary point guard and primary center, and then other guys who are versatile at two positions, kinda like this:
1: JMike
1/2: Derek, Noah
2/3: Gavin, Austin
3/4: Aundre, Mag
4/5: Woolf, Oskar
5: Cliff

If Ogbole plays, he can be a pure backup 5 and Mag can be a pure 4, Oskar sits. If JWill plays, Austin sits.

He’s never played.and no one knows if he can play

 

[bac2therac]

Someone show me something that will make me be confident Ogoble is an upgrade over Wollfolk

Too much bargaining

Ogobole and J Williams arent saving anything

 

[BillyC80]

Someone show me something that will make me be confident Ogoble is an upgrade over Wollfolk

Ogbole averaged 12 points and 8 rebounds as a freshman last year at Monroe CC. In 24 games before his injury, he also had 49 blocks, 19 steals, and shot 69% from the field. He would be our biggest player on the court. I’d like to see what he can do for us.

 

[zappaa]

Ogbole averaged 12 points and 8 rebounds as a freshman last year at Monroe CC. In 24 games before his injury, he also had 49 blocks, 19 steals, and shot 69% from the field. He would be our biggest player on the court. I’d like to see what he can do for us.

So would I, there’s a far better chance you’ll be greatly disappointed than even somewhat happy with his contribution

 

[BillyC80]

So would I, there’s a far better chance you’ll be greatly disappointed than even somewhat happy with his contribution

Not following your logic. If “nobody knows” then I would trust Pike to make the determination.

“If” Ogbole plays, the chance of disappointment is very low imo, because my expectations are that he’ll only be there to spell Cliff, provide a few rebounds, alter or block a couple of shots, and give us up to five fouls. Not asking too much of a guy who’s 6’10 and 240+.

Do you know something that the rest of us don’t know about Ogbole? Have you seen him play or practice? Serious questions.

 

[zappaa]

Not following your logic. If “nobody knows” then I would trust Pike to make the determination.

“If” Ogbole plays, the chance of disappointment is very low imo, because my expectations are that he’ll only be there to spell Cliff, provide a few rebounds, alter or block a couple of shots, and give us up to five fouls. Not asking too much of a guy who’s 6’10 and 240+.

Do you know something that the rest of us don’t know about Ogbole? Have you seen him play or practice? Serious questions.

I have not seen him play.
Didn’t play basketball until he was 17, knee injury and elite conference basketball contributors are special, rare athletes.
Going by the percentages.
Speed, strength, coordination and years of playing experience by the opponents he will face make it unlikely he can just step in and contribute.

Whatever I say or think is irrelevant, it has no bearing on his performance😊

 

[BillyC80]

I have not seen him play.
Didn’t play basketball until he was 17, knee injury and elite conference basketball contributors are special, rare athletes.
Going by the percentages.
Speed, strength, coordination and years of playing experience by the opponents he will face make it unlikely he can just step in and contribute.

Whatever I say or think is irrelevant, it has no bearing on his performance😊

Sound reasoning. One thing you’ve pointed out in the past, is that playing multiple sports can help build a more rounded athlete (something to that effect). Not sure but I think Ogbole played both soccer and football, besides taking up basketball later. So maybe he gives us some good footwork that helps his positioning for defense and rebounding.

I believe he led his league in both shooting percentage and blocked shots and also averaged 2 steals per game so his awareness and timing must be at least decent.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Ogbole averaged 12 points and 8 rebounds as a freshman last year at Monroe CC. In 24 games before his injury, he also had 49 blocks, 19 steals, and shot 69% from the field. He would be our biggest player on the court. I’d like to see what he can do for us.

Coummunity college player not going to move any needles. At best marginally better than what we have.

Thanks for the info though. I really hope we get a better Woolfolk this year.

 

[SBP]

We have 20+ games left against all B1G teams. If Gavin can not make a significant difference on offense he can't be part of the rotation.

Davis 25 Fernandes 15
Fernandes 10 Simpson 25 Awill 5
Hyatt 28 A Will 12
Mag 28 Woolf 12
Cliff 30 Woolf 10

Either lag the putt or try to make it. The needle in January can't be threaded.

Dude the Gavin hate is real. That right there ^ is wack.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Dude the Gavin hate is real. That right there ^ is wack.

If this is about desperately winning B1G games right now he isnt in the rotation. On the defensive side of the court he is our worst player who is currently in the rotation. On the offensive side RIGHT NOW he is not helping us one bit.

I dont hate Gavin at all….i am just not ready to tank the season.

 

[RUChoppin]

If this is about desperately winning B1G games right now he isnt in the rotation. On the defensive side of the court he is our worst player who is currently in the rotation. On the offensive side RIGHT NOW he is not helping us one bit.

I dont hate Gavin at all….i am just not ready to tank the season.

A lot of guys aren't helping us right now, but we need to have a rotation of players, so that means guys get minutes. A successful season will require Griffiths to improve, and he can't do that from the bench.

I don't see Fernandes showing a lot of growth midway through his 5th year, but Davis and Griffiths have more of a chance to as the year stretches on. We need our freshmen to round into sophomore form.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

A lot of guys aren't helping us right now, but we need to have a rotation of players, so that means guys get minutes. A successful season will require Griffiths to improve, and he can't do that from the bench.

I don't see Fernandes showing a lot of growth midway through his 5th year, but Davis and Griffiths have more of a chance to as the year stretches on. We need our freshmen to round into sophomore form.

The question becomes with this particular team in the next few months even if Gavin figures it out offensively can he improve our offense enough to make up for the difference he will hurt us in B1G games on the defensive end?

I really don't think I am overdramatic here...most B1G teams will pick on him and it's not like Caleb will be flying around helping.

Now tomorrow night Gavin's 1st shot will drop and he will score 29 and we will upset Ohio State.

 

[fluoxetine]

The realistic bull case for the season is that we are just in a deep slump right now. It's only been 12 games and not all of them have been bad. 12 games is a very small sample. If you reversed the order of last season how would we have felt after the first 12 games?

- Derek Simpson is likely better than a 32% 2-point shooter in the long run
- Gavin is very early in his career and the switch might flip - he also seems to be in a shooting slump (26% from 3, 53% from the line) that should improve even if nothing else did
- Fernandes was much, MUCH better at UMass, and the difference is NOT about level of competition as our current SOS is similar to a full-season SOS at UMass
- First shot defense is super elite. We are #7 in adj DE (Torvik) and #16 (Kenpom) while being #326 in defensive rebounding percentage.
- Despite playing like shit, we escaped in all our cupcake games. We are only ~1 game out of position at this point from a win/loss perspective. This is basically the same as last season and about 1 game better than 21/22. All of our losses are Q1.

If we actually start winning games, no one is going to care that we almost lost to Stonehill. If Simpson breaks out, Gavin breaks out, Fernandes gets it together, rebounding improves a bit (we won't ever be good with this team but that doesn't mean we can't improve to somewhat less bad), we continue to play elite defense other than the rebounding issue, and we get a little luck, can we get to 19 or 20 wins? I don't see why not. I wouldn't bet on it but it's not some complete fantasy.

 

[willisneverrana43]

I don’t know what “fixing this season “
Will bring us in the end game …but to maximizing the wins we have…while developing the roster for next year …here is what we need to do

1.) We need an alpha . Game one , right after, I said the elephant in the room was a leadership on the court . Who is the leader ….so how the rotation needs to be reconstructed needs to start with that …leading to point 2….

2.) Roll the ball to zero. I have gone hot and cold on Derek this year , but WE NEED backcourt scoring and he can provide it. Yes, it comes as a risk of sone defensive issues. Yes it comes on him sometimes not making the extra pass. But I really think a lot of this is solved with more experience . I have seen nothing from him and his character that says he isn’t willing or he is selfish and won’t pass. More Experience fixed this . We need to roll the ball to him …

3.) cohesion on offense and defense needs to be fixed ….it’s so choppy on both ends. A lot of the rebounding issues is being a half step behind on rotation that has out of rebounding positions on the misses….sone of this gets fixed with better cohesion. On offense it’s also , a lot of mistiming on the motion offense . …whixh leads to the next two ponts

4.) shorten the play book on defense. We are trying to do too much . Sone games , besides playing five (man), we mix sone zone and mix 2-2-1 press in. Scrap the zone , and limit the press . We need to get better on core value defense and rotation timing (whixh really helps the rebounding )….so if that means less press and scrapping the zone ….to be more cohesive on defense , do it.

5.) shorten the bench . The playing 10 guys …needs to end. This is a big part of the mistiming on offense and defense ….we need to shorten the bench. I’ll say this until the cow comes home, to score 75 in a game , it means you need an average of 15 points per 40 minutes of play …so if you are playing minutes , and you don’t get your average , you need to be affecting the game on other ways

Derek needs 28 (he will get 11 ppg with three minutes , and potentially a little more )

Jmike needs 26 (he will probably get less than 9.7 ppg, probably 7.5 -8.0 ppg , but can make up for it with defense )

Mag needs 26 (he will get a little less than 9.7 ppg , probably 8-9 ppg , but will make up for it on defense

Hyatt needs 28 (and will get his number …11 ppg )

Cliff needs 30l (and will likely exceed the 11.76 ppg in bjs 30 minutes)

So the question becomes …how do we finish the bench off with the remaining 62 minutes

Shorten the bench means

- extended minutes for Gavin …24. He will get 8 ppg in those 24 and be better for the things for the experience

-no chol. I’ve seen enoogh

- no Palmquist . I’ve seen enoogh

- no wolf except for 10 minutes to five cliff a break. We hope Ogoble can take his minutes away …because he is not an answer

-remaining 28 minutes for austin and Noah, both of which are not the answer . And if jerimah gets eligible …he takes most of the remaining 28 minute .

This gets us a 65-67 ppg average in big ten play …and will allow us to hang around most nights , like the last few seasons

I could go on with more …but I think this gets the point across

Time for pike to bring out his quote

“Play the best and fair to the rest “

This does this ….shorten the bench and simply what we are going to do

That's a lot of detail. My recommendation is simpler: a Flux Capacitor. That would allow us to go back and fix previous recruiting and portal activity.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Removing preseason bias we are 9th in adjusted defensive efficiency....that is absolutely crazy considering that INCLUDES our defensive rebounding. Those numbers are a little skewed because we beat the defensive spread against cupecakes and have only an above average ADJUSTED score against P5 teams minus Georgetown.

STILL point is we are ELITE defensively (for now) until the shot goes up.

I don't expect all of Flux's things to hit but a few of them will and I think it will keep us from a disasterous season.

 

[NickRU714]

The idea that reducing the minutes of our 7th player is going to improve things is pretty funny.

The season is already tanking due to the players actually on the court for the majority of the game.

Unless the premise is that the only reason we are losing is Gavin (again which is a little hard to believe since he's playing the 7th most minutes. Everyone else is doing great but those 20min a game by one player are ruining everything else happening by the other 12 guys on the roster).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

To me this season so far can be defined by 3 things
1. poor guard play
2. defensive rebounding
3. number of bad stretches in our "real games"

Games have gotten away from us fast and that can't happen if you are getting stops on the defensive end.

 

[bac2therac]

To me this season so far can be defined by 3 things
1. poor guard play
2. defensive rebounding
3. number of bad stretches in our "real games"

Games have gotten away from us fast and that can't happen if you are getting stops on the defensive end.

in almost every game even in wins, RU is going 5 to 8 minute stretches with 0 points or 1fg and sometimes more than once. To me thats the biggest takeaway. This is the most challenged offensively skilled team since Fred Hill years. The startling thing is that its actually getting worse not better as the season has wore on. Last years offense was funky but they played defense, scrapped, rebounded, and did all the things they needed to that would keep them in games. Does this team have those qualities in them...I would say no

 

[RUChoppin]

I still think one of the biggest missing elements is chemistry with this team, which is something that can definitely be improved game to game.

We're playing like five fingers instead of one fist - the ball movement isn't great, the trust in each other isn't very good, and the recognition of where teammates are on the floor isn't good.

Fernandes/Simpson/Davis need to be quicker to act when receiving a pass. Whether that's taking the catch-and-shoot opportunity (looking at you, Fernandes), immediately passing to the open teammate to catch-and-shoot before the defense can recover, or immediately showing shot and driving past the close out defender. They all seem to take a beat to decide what to do, and it allows the defense that moment to recover, and puts us into a grinding/unfocused half-court set.

They also need to work harder to get to the rim, trusting that there will be someone to dish to if needed. You don't have to force the shot - but you need to either draw the defender and dish or take the contact and get to the line.

I think a lot of this comes down to comfort/trust in the team concept, which just seem like it's there yet.

Mag's a great complimentary piece... but there's not a team to compliment right now. Griffiths can be a threat in a flowing offensive system... but there's no flow right now. Size differentials can be overcome with quickness, but there's too much overthinking/delay right now.

Yes, we need to shoot and rebound better - but we need everyone to get on the same page, or each game is going to be a disjointed adventure.

 

[RU84]

Love the sky is falling rhetoric and how allegedly worse this year's team is vs last years. After 12 games RU is 8-4. Last year our record after 12 fames was ... 8-4. Arguably our schedule this year has been a little more challenging.

 

[fatsam98]

Love the sky is falling rhetoric and how allegedly worse this year's team is vs last years. After 12 games RU is 8-4. Last year our record after 12 fames was ... 8-4. Arguably our schedule this year has been a little more challenging.

One of those losses* was at Ohio State

Our NET was at 27 after the Bucknell game last year that made us 8-4.

Our NET today is 93.

 

[RUChoppin]

Love the sky is falling rhetoric and how allegedly worse this year's team is vs last years. After 12 games RU is 8-4. Last year our record after 12 fames was ... 8-4. Arguably our schedule this year has been a little more challenging.

Last year's 8-4 was better than this year's 8-4.

In the first 12 games:

Last year's losses:
6 pt loss to Temple (NET 125) on neutral court - missing both McConnell and Mulcahy
7 pt loss at Miami (NET 35) - missing Mulcahy
1 pt loss at OSU (NET 52)- last second shot from out of bounds missed by refs
2 pt loss vs. SHU (NET 77)

Worst loss was by 7 points on the road at #35 Miami, average loss was by 4 pts

This year's losses:
7 pt loss to Princeton (Current NET 27) on neutral court - missing Mag
18 pt loss to Illinois (NET 12) - missing Mag
19 pt loss at Wake Forest (NET 64) - missing Mag
10 pt loss to Miss St (NET 35) on neutral court

Worst loss was by 19 on the road to #64 Wake Forest, average loss was by 13.5

Last year's wins:
40 pt win over Columbia (341)
35 pt win over Sacred Heart (326)
35 pt win over Bucknell (295)
34 pt win over CCSU (343)
30 pt win over Rider (217)
24 pt win over Wake Forest (90)
15 pt win over Indiana (30)
8 pt win over UMass (119)

Best win was by 15 over #30 Indiana, average margin over teams rated 150+ was 34.8

This year's wins:
31 pt win over St Peter's (179)
24 pt win over BU (254)
22 pt win over Howard (237)
22 pt win over LIU (349)
11 pt win over GTown (203)
9 pt win over Bryant (174)
7 pt win over SHU (90)
1 pt win over Stonehill (345)

Best win was by 7 over #90 Seton Hall, average margin over teams rated 150+ was 17.1

 

[BillyC80]

One of those losses* was at Ohio State

Our NET was at 27 after the Bucknell game last year that made us 8-4.

Our NET today is 93.

Sam, how did you find our NET for a particular date in the past? I was looking to see what our NET was 2 years ago, after we had played our 12th game, but couldn’t find a source for that info.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

in almost every game even in wins, RU is going 5 to 8 minute stretches with 0 points or 1fg and sometimes more than once. To me thats the biggest takeaway. This is the most challenged offensively skilled team since Fred Hill years. The startling thing is that its actually getting worse not better as the season has wore on. Last years offense was funky but they played defense, scrapped, rebounded, and did all the things they needed to that would keep them in games. Does this team have those qualities in them...I would say no

Statistically we have played defense…numbers dont lie….seems counter sometimes to what i think i am seeing.

Stats that show points given up are true actual stats that is the best expression of true defense and they explain what is actually happening.

 

[fluoxetine]

Sam, how did you find our NET for a particular date in the past? I was looking to see what our NET was 2 years ago, after we had played our 12th game, but couldn’t find a source for that info.

bracketologists.com

 

[BillyC80]

bracketologists.com

Great, thanks!

 

[fatsam98]

Sam, how did you find our NET for a particular date in the past? I was looking to see what our NET was 2 years ago, after we had played our 12th game, but couldn’t find a source for that info.

140.

That was after losing to UMass and Lafayette but beating Purdue.

 

[BillyC80]

140.

That was after losing to UMass and Lafayette but beating Purdue.

Thank you! I went to bracketologists but it seemed to only show historical NET data for teams that would be projected to make the NCAA tournament. I must be looking for NET in all the wrong places, lol.

 

[Zak57]

Can use this also and just change the year in the drop down.

NCAA Statistics

 

[fatsam98]

Thank you! I went to bracketologists but it seemed to only show historical NET data for teams that would be projected to make the NCAA tournament. I must be looking for NET in all the wrong places, lol.

If you want to know how crazy that season turnaround was... based on 1/1/22 NET rankings, we were the lowest ranked team BY FAR to ultimately receive an at large bid at 140.

Next lowest was Notre Dame, who we faced in Dayton, at 102.

 

[fluoxetine]

On bracketologists, click on a team (i.e. Rutgers). At the top it will say 2023-24 season. You can switch that to a different season. Then it will show you the graph of NET by date for that season.

 

[bac2therac]

Statistically we have played defense…numbers dont lie….seems counter sometimes to what i think i am seeing.

Stats that show points given up are true actual stats that is the best expression of true defense and they explain what is actually happening.

do you have our stats for the 5 games vs teams with pulses

 

[BillyC80]

If you want to know how crazy that season turnaround was... based on 1/1/22 NET rankings, we were the lowest ranked team BY FAR to ultimately receive an at large bid at 140.

Next lowest was Notre Dame, who we faced in Dayton, at 102.

Wow, that’s wild, thanks.

 

[BillyC80]

On bracketologists, click on a team (i.e. Rutgers). At the top it will say 2023-24 season. You can switch that to a different season. Then it will show you the graph of NET by date for that season.

Awesome, thank you for the insight.

 

[essexknight]

To me this season so far can be defined by 3 things
1. poor guard play
2. defensive rebounding
3. number of bad stretches in our "real games"

Games have gotten away from us fast and that can't happen if you are getting stops on the defensive end.

I would add poor shooting to your list. Hyatt is probably the only player who is shooting at or above expectations, thus far.