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Fixing this season….here is what we need to do

do you have our stats for the 5 games vs teams with pulses
Yes….on adjusted basis they arent as good but still above avergae.

if you include Georgetown our “pulse” D is excellent. If you leave out georgetown it is decent..

The other auestion i have floating in the back of my mind is are we getting lucky in our pulse game in that our opponents perimeter shooting has been bad and we have been lucky
 
I would add poor shooting to your list. Hyatt is probably the only player who is shooting at or above expectations, thus far.
Wow that has just been an issue last 3 games. We were an above average shooting team until…..
4-20
3-17
5-28

No wonder why we are all sky is falling.

Normalize that to 34-36%…..
9 more points LIU
9 more points MSU
15 more points daisy hill
 
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do you have our stats for the 5 games vs teams with pulses
They're worse, but now we're cutting our sample down to only five games. Also, how do we define "having a pulse"? If we're talking about our defense both Georgetown and Howard are at least pulse-adjacent on the offensive side of the ball.
 
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Statistically we have played defense…numbers dont lie….seems counter sometimes to what i think i am seeing.

Stats that show points given up are true actual stats that is the best expression of true defense and they explain what is actually happening.
Think part of the explanation is the staff is sticking with the complex defensive game plan and rotations …but our defensive rotations are not perfect yet …and they need to be perfect to be in position to rebound (and get an outlet pass going)…and part of the reason why the DREB is really out of whack.

This is a big part of the reason why I want a shorten bench…get the continuity going . Get
Better communication. We have played so many different line ups this year …it’s been a mish-mash
 
Yes….on adjusted basis they arent as good but still above avergae.

if you include Georgetown our “pulse” D is excellent. If you leave out georgetown it is decent..

The other auestion i have floating in the back of my mind is are we getting lucky in our pulse game in that our opponents perimeter shooting has been bad and we have been lucky
Georgetown has no pulse
 
Wow that has just been an issue last 3 games. We were an above average shooting team until…..
4-20
3-17
5-28

No wonder why we are all sky is falling.

Normalize that to 34-36%…..
9 more points LIU
9 more points MSU
15 more points daisy hill
remember we had fools gold hot shooting vs Seton Hall, take away 4 of those......
 
remember we had fools gold hot shooting vs Seton Hall, take away 4 of those......
Which is why when we truly analyze how we are playing and if we are trending the right way things need to be looked at from a shooting neutralized basis. I do think subjective adjustments should be made based on the quality of looks.

We lose 72-61 to SHU if
We shot 9-24
They shot 6-20

We had hot dice in the Rock.
 
Someone show me something that will make me be confident Ogoble is an upgrade over Wollfolk
Just look at him. Wolf has been extremely disappointing in terms of rebounding and is a below the rim player who doesn't protect the rim. I'd have an extremely hard time believing Ogbole won't be a better rebounder and rim protector. Wolf more skilled with the ball but Ogbole offers something in an area we are really struggling in

Too much bargaining

Ogobole and J Williams arent saving anything
They both fill needs where there is a hole in the roster. Ogbole much limited but useful role. Williams would likely play a massive role upgrading guard play while adding size for rebounding and defense against larger guards

The realistic bull case for the season is that we are just in a deep slump right now. It's only been 12 games and not all of them have been bad. 12 games is a very small sample. If you reversed the order of last season how would we have felt after the first 12 games?

- Derek Simpson is likely better than a 32% 2-point shooter in the long run
- Gavin is very early in his career and the switch might flip - he also seems to be in a shooting slump (26% from 3, 53% from the line) that should improve even if nothing else did
- Fernandes was much, MUCH better at UMass, and the difference is NOT about level of competition as our current SOS is similar to a full-season SOS at UMass
- First shot defense is super elite. We are #7 in adj DE (Torvik) and #16 (Kenpom) while being #326 in defensive rebounding percentage.
- Despite playing like shit, we escaped in all our cupcake games. We are only ~1 game out of position at this point from a win/loss perspective. This is basically the same as last season and about 1 game better than 21/22. All of our losses are Q1.

If we actually start winning games, no one is going to care that we almost lost to Stonehill. If Simpson breaks out, Gavin breaks out, Fernandes gets it together, rebounding improves a bit (we won't ever be good with this team but that doesn't mean we can't improve to somewhat less bad), we continue to play elite defense other than the rebounding issue, and we get a little luck, can we get to 19 or 20 wins? I don't see why not. I wouldn't bet on it but it's not some complete fantasy.
1 game out of position in win loss isn't that meaningful. We have zero impressive OOC wins and almost lost to a glorified HS team.

Our OOC performance has completely tanked our NCAA resume / NET and I know you know that. We have no real serious shot unless we dominate B1G play which seems extremelyyy unlikely
 
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After probably wasting too much time on here the past week or so debating the program, where it is, how we got here, where it can go, am I the only dope who is excited for the game tonight thinking maybe, just maybe, these guys just needed to get out of town, get into bunker mode, and we’ll see a better product?
 
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To be clear I am NOT predicting we will make the tournament, but:

1 game out of position in win loss isn't that meaningful. We have zero impressive OOC wins
True, but also no bad losses. It's pretty hard to argue that we didn't do better OOC this year (again, in W/L, not in actual quality of play) than last year, and pretty much everyone agrees we would've been fine last season at 11-9 in conference play.
and almost lost to a glorified HS team.
The almost matters a lot.
Our OOC performance has completely tanked our NCAA resume / NET and I know you know that.
This really isn't true. The resume would be fine with a good conference record and the net while currently bad is not irrecoverably so. It's also not clear that NET matters much if at all, look at our NET in 2021-22 vs 2022-23 and what conclusion can you draw? (And yes, I am aware that 2021-22 Rutgers had a very unique resume but the same conclusions can be drawn from others which is that the NET is used much more to evaluate the strength of your opponents than as an actual input to the selection process of a given team).
We have no real serious shot unless we dominate B1G play which seems extremelyyy unlikely
I agree that is unlikely that we do well enough because based on seeing this team play they are not that good. But the actual level of play that would be required from this point forward isn't dominance or anything like that, it's just to play like a top ~30 team or so.
 
I am the 1st person that says to practically ignore recruiting rankings. While Woolfolk was actively being recruited by Pike and others ogobole was headed to a community college.
 
To be clear I am NOT predicting we will make the tournament, but:


True, but also no bad losses. It's pretty hard to argue that we didn't do better OOC this year (again, in W/L, not in actual quality of play) than last year, and pretty much everyone agrees we would've been fine last season at 11-9 in conference play.

The almost matters a lot.

This really isn't true. The resume would be fine with a good conference record and the net while currently bad is not irrecoverably so. It's also not clear that NET matters much if at all, look at our NET in 2021-22 vs 2022-23 and what conclusion can you draw? (And yes, I am aware that 2021-22 Rutgers had a very unique resume but the same conclusions can be drawn from others which is that the NET is used much more to evaluate the strength of your opponents than as an actual input to the selection process of a given team).

I agree that is unlikely that we do well enough because based on seeing this team play they are not that good. But the actual level of play that would be required from this point forward isn't dominance or anything like that, it's just to play like a top ~30 team or so.
It didn't almost matter a lot it actually dropped our NET like 10 spots

Committee has shown OOC results matter and are weighted. We have a veryyy weak OOC SOS and our best OOC win is SHU which most are predicting as a bottom dweller in the big east. Our second best OOC win is who? Georgetown? Bryant?? It's a laughably bad OOC resume if we are being objective

Committee isn't going to take us at 11-9 in a likely down year for the B1G. Guaranteed

@bac2therac want to weigh in on where Rutgers OOC resume stands and what would be needed to make the tournament?
 
It didn't almost matter a lot it actually dropped our NET like 10 spots
It dropped us 10 spots, but again our actual NET ranking basically doesn't matter as far as I can tell.
Committee has shown OOC results matter and are weighted.
They haven't shown they matter any more or less than in conference results.
We have a veryyy weak OOC SOS and our best OOC win is SHU which most are predicting as a bottom dweller in the big east. Our second best OOC win is who? Georgetown? Bryant?? It's a laughably bad OOC resume if we are being objective

Committee isn't going to take us at 11-9 in a likely down year for the B1G. Guaranteed

@bac2therac want to weigh in on where Rutgers OOC resume stands and what would be needed to make the tournament?
Last year our best OOC win was #90 Wake Forest at home, Q3. Our second best was against #119 UMass Lowell, also at home, also Q3. On top of that we had two Q3 losses (vs #125 Temple and vs #77 Seton Hall).

This year our best OOC win is #89 Seton Hall on the road which is Q2 and there is no second best (currently it's #172 Bryant which is upper Q4). We have no losses outside Q1.

Last season on Selection Sunday the B1G was the #2 NET conference with an average ranking of 57.57. Currently it is the #2 NET conference with an average ranking of 63.29.

To summarize
2023
9-3 OOC record (0 Q1-Q2 wins, 2 Q3 wins, 2 Q3 losses) vs the #338 NC SOS per Kenpom
10-10 conference record (#2 conference, 57.57 average NET ranking)

With this resume BAC was "95% confident" we would be in and despite that not being true I assume he would say we were definitely in had we won an additional game.

2024
9-3 OOC record (1 Q2 win, all losses Q1) vs the #271 NC SOS per Kenpom
?? conference record (#2 conference, 63.29 average NET ranking)

It's very unclear how you can claim that a Rutgers team with an 11-9 conference record this season would have a worse resume than a Rutgers team with an 11-9 conference record last season.
 
Bart can be taken with a grain of salt sometimes.....

Last year BART had us 226 OOC SOS and 48th overall
This year BART projects us to have 142 OOC SOS and 27th overall

I'd like to think the magic number is 20 including the B1Gt, although I am starting to question whether confedrence tournaments really matter.

I am also NOT bac and he will tell you who we beat would be important.
 
It dropped us 10 spots, but again our actual NET ranking basically doesn't matter as far as I can tell.

They haven't shown they matter any more or less than in conference results.

Last year our best OOC win was #90 Wake Forest at home, Q3. Our second best was against #119 UMass Lowell, also at home, also Q3. On top of that we had two Q3 losses (vs #125 Temple and vs #77 Seton Hall).

This year our best OOC win is #89 Seton Hall on the road which is Q2 and there is no second best (currently it's #172 Bryant which is upper Q4). We have no losses outside Q1.

Last season on Selection Sunday the B1G was the #2 NET conference with an average ranking of 57.57. Currently it is the #2 NET conference with an average ranking of 63.29.

To summarize
2023
9-3 OOC record (0 Q1-Q2 wins, 2 Q3 wins, 2 Q3 losses) vs the #338 NC SOS per Kenpom
10-10 conference record (#2 conference, 57.57 average NET ranking)

With this resume BAC was "95% confident" we would be in and despite that not being true I assume he would say we were definitely in had we won an additional game.

2024
9-3 OOC record (1 Q2 win, all losses Q1) vs the #271 NC SOS per Kenpom
?? conference record (#2 conference, 63.29 average NET ranking)

It's very unclear how you can claim that a Rutgers team with an 11-9 conference record this season would have a worse resume than a Rutgers team with an 11-9 conference record last season.
Our NET was at 27 after the Bucknell game last year that made us 8-4.

Our NET today is 93

We were in a good spot last year heading into the main B1G slate. This year we have a clear uphill battle
 
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Last years resume had a win on the road vs #1. Leaving that out is very misleading.
Purdue was #5 come selection sunday but yes that was obviously a very good win. Not really sure how leaving it out is misleading since we are talking about non conference performance.
 
Our NET was at 27 after the Bucknell game last year that made us 8-4.

Our NET today is 93

We were in a good spot last year heading into the main B1G slate. This year we have a clear uphill battle
Our. Net. Doesn't. Matter.

The principal difference between this year and last year is that last year's team felt like a good team that had underperformed from a W/L perspective (and had also already beaten Indiana) and this one does not. Non-conference W/L performance is at worst a wash and realistically was better this year. You are being blinded by your opinion of the team itself. Just look:

Resume #1
Wins
#90 H
#119 H
#217 H
#295 H
#326 H
#328 H
#341 H
#343 H

Losses
#35 A
#77 H
#125 N

Resume #2
Wins
#89 A
#172 H
#176 H
#211 H
#236 H
#253 H
#346 H
#351 H

Losses
#30 N
#35 N
#58 A

#2 is better!
 
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Purdue was #5 come selection sunday but yes that was obviously a very good win. Not really sure how leaving it out is misleading since we are talking about non conference performance.
Because unless our 11-9 this year includes that win then it’s far from equal. Also our net ranking was great after ooc play last year.
 
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Our. Net. Doesn't. Matter.

The principal difference between this year and last year is that last year's team felt like a good team that had underperformed from a W/L perspective (and had also already beaten Indiana) and this one does not. Non-conference W/L performance is at worst a wash and realistically was better this year.
We didn't make it last year. Not sure why you think performing the same this year will get us in when we will have a worse NET
 
We didn't make it last year. Not sure why you think performing the same this year will get us in when we will have a worse NET
We were 10-10 last year not 11-9. I am arguing that 8-3 + 11-9 + 1-1 = 20-13 would likely be enough and that 19-14 would likely leave us short but in the conversation like last year. Obviously, all that depends on the resumes around, specific wins, etc, but as a general range.
 
Because unless our 11-9 this year includes that win then it’s far from equal. Also our net ranking was great after ooc play last year.
We weren't 11-9 last year, but also it's irrelevant to the underlying basis of this conversation which is whether our OOC performance this year was worse, for NCAA tournament selection, than last year (it was not).
 
We weren't 11-9 last year, but also it's irrelevant to the underlying basis of this conversation which is whether our OOC performance this year was worse, for NCAA tournament selection, than last year (it was not).
Net rankings in the 90s this year compared to 20s last year. Sorry but you can’t hide from this.
 
Our NET was #77 in 2021-22. Pitt got a bid last year with a NET of 67 while the NETs of 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 47, 52, 54, 57, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65. If we actually got to 20-13 our NET would not be in the 90s anymore and will not be a problem.
 
11-9 we will need some big wins in that 11 and limit any losses to the bottom of the league and maybeee

This is probably all meaningless bc we likely won't be near the bubble unless the Stoneyhill game is a huge wake up call that leads to some more inspired play
 
Congratulations, you just forced the highest ranked player at Rutgers into the transfer portal.

And as usual, you completely misdiagnose the issue. Your answer is always we need to play better defense. We didn’t barely win against one of the worst teams in college basketball who only had 6 scholarship players available because of our defense. It is because we only scored 2 FGs over a 13 minute stretch and only shot 26% for the game!!!!!
If my rotation was used we probably win
 
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Sounds like FIG is getting on the "Gavin Griffiths is Jaden Jones" train with me.
 
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Hes a freshman who has improved defensively over the course of the season and has showed more effort than Jones ever did. This is embarrassing
The effort is better but the basketball IQ and actual production are not.
 
The effort is better but the basketball IQ and actual production are not.
Yea, as a freshman on a team that generates zero open looks, has no one that makes the right passes when he does get open, and a system that does not run efficient offense. What happens to Fig's lineup when teams play defense with half a brain and realize they don't have to cover half the players and ruins any and all spacing?
 
Sounds like FIG is getting on the "Gavin Griffiths is Jaden Jones" train with me.
That was a wild take after one game of this college career. I guess you're stuck with it now.

Gavin needs to be waaaay more confident... I'll give you that. Hopefully that comes with more experience as this season progresses.
 
If this is about desperately winning B1G games right now he isnt in the rotation. On the defensive side of the court he is our worst player who is currently in the rotation. On the offensive side RIGHT NOW he is not helping us one bit.

I dont hate Gavin at all….i am just not ready to tank the season.
You’re right, tonight for sure. He’s too fixated on firing the 3 ball. He’s gotta us the pump fake and drive. He probably could have made a difference tonight for sure.
 
You’re right, tonight for sure. He’s too fixated on firing the 3 ball. He’s gotta us the pump fake and drive. He probably could have made a difference tonight for sure.
It is tough when he doesnt get touches and when he gets it he wants to make a play.
 
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once the team stops playing “your turn , my turn and moves the ball”….things will get better

There is a diffeenxe between what Simpson does out of the designed high ball screen and lot of other shots that for go up way too quick (and out of the offense with a way too low of a OREB opportunity and more risk of not being in position to rotate back on defense)
 
once the team stops playing “your turn , my turn and moves the ball”….things will get better

There is a diffeenxe between what Simpson does out of the designed high ball screen and lot of other shots that for go up way too quick (and out of the offense with a way too low of a OREB opportunity and more risk of not being in position to rotate back on defense)
2nd paragraph was the issue in the first half in that bad stretch
 
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Yea, as a freshman on a team that generates zero open looks, has no one that makes the right passes when he does get open, and a system that does not run efficient offense. What happens to Fig's lineup when teams play defense with half a brain and realize they don't have to cover half the players and ruins any and all spacing?
How many games are we going to have to have where we go down double digits, bench guys that dont play D, put in our best defensive lineup in and then come back.

Princeton
illinois
Ohio State
 
I see a difference in a few areas…
1. He is more advanced offensively
2. I think he really cares and is trying
3. I see him taking responsibility for his D and making changes for next year
So I was 50% shitposting when I said it originally but now I'm only 25%. I do think JJ could've been a productive player eventually it he cared to stick around, and I think the same for Gavin. I also think that this is basically a lost year and I'd generally play him over Austin Williams even though the latter impacts winning much more right now.
 
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