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Fixing this season….here is what we need to do

It’s not so much the ranking, but rather the potential and upside that clearly exists with GG. He’s provided enough to be a 10-20 mpg player give or take, depending on how he’s performing within each game.

Plus I’m not sure who’d we’d play in his stead. Austin? No. Oskar? No. Chol? No.
What is the upside to GG the player that has to play both sides of the court on a team next year full of plyers that get their own shot.
 
Going to get even nerdier on you.

Baseball has WAR, wins above replacement.

Put your best offensive Rutgers 5 out there and what is their OAR. Offensive above replacement. When i say replacement i mean our bench.

Compare that to our best defensive 5. What is their defensive differential to the offensive 5?

Which is larger?

Haven't we been doing that all year?
Especially since Mag has come back?

We're playing defense over offense (see Gavin's minutes as example) and how's that working out?
 
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If we are going to give minutes to someone who is getting them because of his recruiting rankings be prepared for this team to go 4-16.

If I was in Pike's shoes I'd give January to put my best team on the floor.

What is our best team?
And it is that much different if GG plays more?

It's not like we're disrupting the 96 Bulls by mixing up the lineup.
 
Haven't we been doing that all year?
Especially since Mag has come back?

We're playing defense over offense (see Gavin's minutes as example) and how's that working out?
Gavin is playing 15-20 minutes. 0 minutes lets it be known minutes need to be earned.
 
We have 20+ games left against all B1G teams. If Gavin can not make a significant difference on offense he can't be part of the rotation.

Davis 25 Fernandes 15
Fernandes 10 Simpson 25 Awill 5
Hyatt 28 A Will 12
Mag 28 Woolf 12
Cliff 30 Woolf 10

Either lag the putt or try to make it. The needle in January can't be threaded.
Congratulations, you just forced the highest ranked player at Rutgers into the transfer portal.

And as usual, you completely misdiagnose the issue. Your answer is always we need to play better defense. We didn’t barely win against one of the worst teams in college basketball who only had 6 scholarship players available because of our defense. It is because we only scored 2 FGs over a 13 minute stretch and only shot 26% for the game!!!!!
 
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The only way the season gets fixed is if Jeremiah Williams gets immediately eligible -- this fixes a number of problems all in one fell swoop:
  • He's a taller (6-4) guard
  • He can handle and score
  • He plays defense
  • He rebounds
  • It limits minutes of A. Williams and N. Fernandes
I'm not saying he's a Savior. But it's a huge piece of the puzzle that we're sorely missing.

Why would we trust the reports on J Williams from the offseason and practices? I know I am not trusting the reports on J Williams that he may actually be good. The same reports said this team could shoot threes, score at a high rate, would play effectively at a fast pace, and was actually good. Same reports also told me Noah would be a floor general with his speed, his efficient shooting and driving the lane to score and set up teammates, etc... Don’t trust the reports as they have not been accurate regarding this team. I will believe it when I see it in actual games when it comes to J Williams as I have not seen the other reports we heard about previously come to fruition with this team.
 
Not there anymore with Derek. Was a big defender of his with the 2 vs 3 analytics debate because I thought his 10-15 foot pull up would be cash a lot more than it would be clang. But after these games both Mississippi State , Longhill , Princeton , it is obvious his 2 point shooting in volume is not good enough.
Instead , we have to move the ball better , quicker , side to side , then dribble penetration then the guards have to find Cliff for the love of God. Our guards seem like the worst in the nation finding our scoring options , Aundre , Cliff , Gavin . Bad bad guard play. Hoping JMike is healthy again because I think he has a chance to correct the problem. He played with ACE last year and knew how to get the ball to the best option on the court.
We have to immediately ( I have saying it for 3-4 games now ) correct the rebounding problem and correct the easier problem the defensive glass and our players have to jump and leap and actually go for rebounds. Pike should have corrected by now but it hasn’t been . Offensively we have to hit the glass better and Cliff and Mag and Aundre and Wolf when in there have to get more offensive rebounds and put backs. We are clanging the shots at less than 30 % so those rebounds have to be cleaned up so full speed alert to crash the glass.
Shorten the bench hopefully that we are back in BIG 10 play that will happen but Pike wanted to see what he had in Choi and Oskar and we have seen enough and neither plays unless teams play exclusively zone and Oskar provides another 3 point shot but in the Big 10 almost everyone plays man to man. Use Pick and Roll properly and play inside out and let Cliff dish out to Aundre or Gavin or Noah for 3’s. That will get us competitive again. Without the above , we are in trouble.
 
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Why is it bad defense should cost minutes but bad offense never seems to cost minutes?

The "there are two sides to the game" only seems to apply to defense and never offense.
 
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Whst is the upside of any returning player
GG has an All American ceiling if he and the players around him are taught the right way to play.
Theres not a coach or program in the country who wouldn’t love to have him and be eager to coach him up.
 
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This season is about default minutes, unfortunately. Guys play right now because we have no one better.

Last season we were light on talent but made up for it with chemistry and connectedness. The whole was greater than the sum of its parts - until we lost a key cog in that wheel, and the machine started grinding. It happened to have been Mag, but I don't think the rest-of-the-season loss of any of our key cogs would have had any better result.

This season is marked by disconnectedness. The guys on this board cheering the departure of our continuity have what they asked for - a bunch of undersized guys with 'potential' to play faster. The results are what they are. There's no continuity, no flow, no buy-in, no team concepts. It's a bunch of individuals out there, none of which has the talent to take over a game and be dominant.

If this team doesn't start working together as a unit and trusting each other, no amount of changes to the rotation will matter.

Unfortunately, Fernandes isn't what we expected - he isn't a catch-and-shoot threat AT ALL, he over-dribbles, he's hesitant, he doesn't yet trust his teammates enough to give them the ball quickly and in rhythm, and he can't overcome his size differential offensively to get to the rim and score (or get to the line).

Simpson is what he was last year - not the small window at the end of last year, but what we saw throughout last year. There hasn't been some miraculous growth from freshman to sophomore year - just more minutes and shots. He loves a dumb shot (the 15ft jumper) and hasn't figured out how to get to the rim and convert penetration into points.

Davis has looked good early on, but he's like a much better Miller - except he also struggles to score, suffering from the same problems of Fernandes and Simpson in overcoming his size disadvantage to get to the rim. Plus, he hasn't been a good FT shooter when he does take it to the tin.

Omoruyi needs a team around him, and he doesn't really have one. He needs guards who can feed him, and ours have struggled with that. Of anyone, he misses Mulcahy/Spencer the most.

Hyatt is what he is, though he's been playing a bit better this season as the "best offensive player on the team" - which is also largely by default, because our better offensive players have left or lost their playmakers.

Griffiths is working on it, but not there yet - and we may need to fight through some growing pains to give him more minutes, because it's not like he has superstars ahead of him in the rotation.

Mag's been down a bit from last year, mostly in his FG%. He was a "key cog in the wheel" last year, but this year I haven't even really seen a wheel to be a cog in.

Williams doesn't look like he belongs, Woolfolk is getting default minutes behind Omoruyi, and Palmquist is the "in case of foul trouble break glass" guy. Chol is barely worth even mentioning.

None of these guys are working together, though, and shoring up each other's gaps. None are really trusting each other and moving the ball. At many times yesterday it felt like these guys just met each other before the game and were trying to figure each other out.

It really feels like there needs to be a players-only meeting to get on the same page with each other, and they need to adopt a true underdog toughness if they're going to start righting the ship.
 
This season is about default minutes, unfortunately. Guys play right now because we have no one better.

Last season we were light on talent but made up for it with chemistry and connectedness. The whole was greater than the sum of its parts - until we lost a key cog in that wheel, and the machine started grinding. It happened to have been Mag, but I don't think the rest-of-the-season loss of any of our key cogs would have had any better result.

This season is marked by disconnectedness. The guys on this board cheering the departure of our continuity have what they asked for - a bunch of undersized guys with 'potential' to play faster. The results are what they are. There's no continuity, no flow, no buy-in, no team concepts. It's a bunch of individuals out there, none of which has the talent to take over a game and be dominant.

If this team doesn't start working together as a unit and trusting each other, no amount of changes to the rotation will matter.

Unfortunately, Fernandes isn't what we expected - he isn't a catch-and-shoot threat AT ALL, he over-dribbles, he's hesitant, he doesn't yet trust his teammates enough to give them the ball quickly and in rhythm, and he can't overcome his size differential offensively to get to the rim and score (or get to the line).

Simpson is what he was last year - not the small window at the end of last year, but what we saw throughout last year. There hasn't been some miraculous growth from freshman to sophomore year - just more minutes and shots. He loves a dumb shot (the 15ft jumper) and hasn't figured out how to get to the rim and convert penetration into points.

Davis has looked good early on, but he's like a much better Miller - except he also struggles to score, suffering from the same problems of Fernandes and Simpson in overcoming his size disadvantage to get to the rim. Plus, he hasn't been a good FT shooter when he does take it to the tin.

Omoruyi needs a team around him, and he doesn't really have one. He needs guards who can feed him, and ours have struggled with that. Of anyone, he misses Mulcahy/Spencer the most.

Hyatt is what he is, though he's been playing a bit better this season as the "best offensive player on the team" - which is also largely by default, because our better offensive players have left or lost their playmakers.

Griffiths is working on it, but not there yet - and we may need to fight through some growing pains to give him more minutes, because it's not like he has superstars ahead of him in the rotation.

Mag's been down a bit from last year, mostly in his FG%. He was a "key cog in the wheel" last year, but this year I haven't even really seen a wheel to be a cog in.

Williams doesn't look like he belongs, Woolfolk is getting default minutes behind Omoruyi, and Palmquist is the "in case of foul trouble break glass" guy. Chol is barely worth even mentioning.

None of these guys are working together, though, and shoring up each other's gaps. None are really trusting each other and moving the ball. At many times yesterday it felt like these guys just met each other before the game and were trying to figure each other out.

It really feels like there needs to be a players-only meeting to get on the same page with each other, and they need to adopt a true underdog toughness if they're going to start righting the ship.
As Michael Ray Richardson once famously said “The ship be sinking”
 
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Right now
Awill hyatt mag getting 3 minutes
Oskar helps us more than gavin now.
GG brings size, shooting, and upside to the 2/3 position. I understand that he is struggling right now. But, it does take time for most freshman to get acclimated to the college game. HS to college is a huge jump. Most players need to be developed over time and this requires PT.
 
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GG brings size, shooting, and upside to the 2/3 position. I understand that he is struggling right now. But, it does take time for most freshman to get acclimated to the college game. HS to college is a huge jump. Most players need to be developed over time and this requires PT.
Do you think that statement applies to Dylan, Ace and the rest of the incoming class? If so, we could be in for a disappointing start next year.
 
Why is it bad defense should cost minutes but bad offense never seems to cost minutes?

The "there are two sides to the game" only seems to apply to defense and never offense.
thats how Pike built the program…has worked.

Need to see Gavin grow 4 inches, give him the #44, and go find Kenny Anderson
 
Great post @Scarlet Shack !

None of this matters if we don't box out. I am not trying to be cheeky or reductive

we barely out rebounded Stonehill yesterday. After being behind in rebounds for much of the game. I am surprised there is not more discussion on these boards about this because this is a fundamental flaw of this team and a recipe for how Pike plays basketball.

Unless there is a major change in how we do this, i am concerned that what you wrote will move the needle little (even though I agree with all of it)

This is how big of an issue our lack of boxing out is.
 
Why would we trust the reports on J Williams from the offseason and practices? I know I am not trusting the reports on J Williams that he may actually be good. The same reports said this team could shoot threes, score at a high rate, would play effectively at a fast pace, and was actually good. Same reports also told me Noah would be a floor general with his speed, his efficient shooting and driving the lane to score and set up teammates, etc... Don’t trust the reports as they have not been accurate regarding this team. I will believe it when I see it in actual games when it comes to J Williams as I have not seen the other reports we heard about previously come to fruition with this team.
I hear you, but every reporter and mod who has watched multiple practices has said that JWill is probably the best player on the team all around.
 
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Why is it bad defense should cost minutes but bad offense never seems to cost minutes?

The "there are two sides to the game" only seems to apply to defense and never offense.
When it comes to B1G play Gavin will be targeted and picked in defensively. All you need to do is screen him and you have him switched defnding the ball handler.

Tough for him to have an impact in the offensive end to offset that.

All teams need to do is watch the Princeton tape. We win that game if Gavin wasnt there.
 
Roll the ball to the guy that likes to take (I didn't say make) long range 2's? No. That's losing basketball.

If his shots are 14 and in or 3's, I can live with the results. That could help us next year and beyond.

In an ideal world, we get him to the line in at least 2 1and1 situations per game. The awareness needs to be there.

Overall, I'd guess that 25% of our shot attempts are hurting the team...cliff outside of 5 feet, long 2's, completely out of control drives. When this stuff consistently happens, it makes you a poorly coached team on offense.
 
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While I do no think 12-15 Simpson shots is the answer, Derek is an excellent free throw shooter. Any strategy going forward needs to involve getting him to the line as often ss possible. Will Derek learn discipline and sacrifice his body
Playing him forced him to okay through it and the wrath of his coaches …force it
 
Right now
Awill hyatt mag getting 3 minutes
Oskar helps us more than gavin now.
You would not say that if you saw oskar yesterday

His attitude on the court was remencent of the attitude off the court during the minny debacle last year

I want guys on the court who want to ball.

Oskar …failed thsr miserably yesterday as a 5th year guy who is supposed to be setting a damn example

Oskar …meet bench .
 
FIG, if you haven't watched yesterday's game, your opinion of who deserves more minutes is missing valuable data. The guys you want to give Gavin's minutes (mainly Williams and Oskar) did very little well yesterday. I'd stick with the freshman with the higher ceiling over struggling Palmquist or Williams, based on yesterday's game. At a minimum, he could return next season, too.
 
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Gavin is playing 15-20 minutes. 0 minutes lets it be known minutes need to be earned.
So even though Rutgers has guards who never learned to pass, are you ready to give up on Gavin? You can't "earn" anything from the bench. If he then transfers out and becomes a star, will you chalk that up to "he developed" or will you admit you are wrong?
 
FIG, if you haven't watched yesterday's game, your opinion of who deserves more minutes is missing valuable data. The guys you want to give Gavin's minutes (mainly Williams and Oskar) did very little well yesterday. I'd stick with the freshman with the higher ceiling over struggling Palmquist or Williams, based on yesterday's game. At a minimum, he could return next season, too.
actually taking the entire season and not focussing on the last game could have more value.

Everytime our program has been at a short term crossroads…..and it has happened 6-7 times…..Pike has always given minutes based on D. It always works.

Our season turned around when he booted Jaden from the rotation. Burning Jalen Miller red shirt even gave us a lift.
 
When it comes to B1G play Gavin will be targeted and picked in defensively. All you need to do is screen him and you have him switched defnding the ball handler.

Tough for him to have an impact in the offensive end to offset that.

All teams need to do is watch the Princeton tape. We win that game if Gavin wasnt there.
Blaming the Princeton loss on Gavin has already been debunked repeatly.
 
So even though Rutgers has guards who never learned to pass, are you ready to give up on Gavin? You can't "earn" anything from the bench. If he then transfers out and becomes a star, will you chalk that up to "he developed" or will you admit you are wrong?
It comes down to whether you want to punt the season. I habent completrly given up on him ANd it is possible he could do fine at another program, but isnt a fit here.

That Alabama guard wasnt a fit for Villanova but he fit in at Alabama. Not sure Jay Wright was wrong.

Bottom line we are better by a lot right now with December Gavin on the bench, especially against real teams that can and will expose him on D
 
Watch the tape. Look at the +/-. They absolutely torched him and our D was great whenever he was in the bench.
There were several threads on this and you even admitted your original opinion on Gavin was wrong. The guys who destroyed us, Alloccco, Kim, and Pierce were largely NOT guarded by Gavin. Pierce, a 6’7” sophomore, completely bullied Cliff, Hyatt and Wolf on the glass. Should all of them sit too? If you start looking to bench all the underperforming people on the team, there will be no one left to play.
 
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There were several threads on this and you even admitted your original opinion on Gavin was wrong. The guys who destroyed us, Alloccco, Kim, and Pierce were largely NOT guarded by Gavin. Pierce, a 6’7” sophomore, completely bullied Cliff, Hyatt and Wolf on the glass. Should all of them sit too? If you start looking to bench all the underperforming people on the team, there will be no one left to play.
We do have a problem of not really having any alternatives.

Yes the Princeton game was a few people, but once a few went to bench we went on runs. There were multiple times where they had Hyatt and Gavin tsrgetrd with screens
 
Finally a realistic and good thread.

We still have the stat nerds living out of reality, but hate to break the news to CBB fans, but basketball is matchup based offense and right now, you cannot run an offense, without offensive talent or players. How do I know this??

This is how you as a fan, can evaluate whether a player is good enough to score, if he has a size, speed or quickness advantage OR has the ability to create his own shot or passing with some accuracy.

Right now we have 4 players who can create their own offense.

Gavin Griffiths
Derek Simpson
J Mike Davis
Jeremiah Williams

We then have one other player who can score, if they have pieces around them to get them the ball to score.....but it is not a quickness, speed or leaping ability or a player off the bounce, who can create their own offense OR create offense to shoot or pass.

Aundre Hyatt

The remaining roster....and pieces from last year either were not able to score on their own or needed to be set up (Spencer, Mulcahy, Caleb, Jalen Miller)

Here's the list of players not ideal for a half court, slower paced style of play.

Fernandes (needs up tempo system to play to his potential).

Austin Williams (rusty)
Chol
Mag
Cliff
Woolfolk
Palmquist
Obgole

I could only mention so many times that it was a necessity to play at a faster pace, to maximize the effectiveness of Fernandes and Gavin Griffiths (and Simpson/Davis). It was always going to be more difficult to see Gavin become an impact player, if you are limited to just playing half court basketball.

It is really up to the coaching staff to continue to push the tempo and find quicker shots in transition, so Fernandes, Griffiths and Hyatt are most effective. Some of those 3s vs Seton Hall came from a "secondary" break, where players got to the 3 point line and find room.

Anyone who is on the list above, who cannot dribble past their defender when given space, 1 on 1, or cannot elevate to create their own shot, or lacks the quickness or toughness to rebound and is 100% reliant on others to score, becomes a dinosaur in Power 5/6 basketball. It doesn't mean they don't have a role on a 13 player roster, it just means they are essentially a "specialist ".

The list of Chol, Mag, Palmquist, Cliff, Woolfolk, Ogbole, Austin Williams and Fernandes are all seeing scholarship offers to committed players, who fit the profile mentioned or those players are better suited in a up tempo pace or play. But with Austin Williams, Fernandes, Palmquist and Cliff either graduating or not expecting to be back, their replacements, fit the profile I've explained on being able to play multiple styles of basketball.

Dribble, shoot, pass, drive, create, ability to switch on defense, rebound and provide spacing on offense with shooting range.

Ogbole looks to fit the specialist role as a backup 5, who might be a rim protection big, shot blocker/altering presence. Cliff ultimately has the elite shot blocking or rebounding potential, so he starts because he is very good at 1 or 2 things.

Anyone else (Mag, Woolfolk, Chol) don't fit this profile as a complete basketball player. They can be specialist who need to really excel at 1 or 2 things (like a Caleb McConnell or Myles Johnson), in order to fit into a winning NCAA caliber team.

The 5 committed players in the 2024 class, along with Jeremiah Williams all fit the description and move away from a station to station offense from last year and what we are seeing this year.

In terms of Simpson and Davis, along with Griffiths, I feel confident in their developing taking place so far. I'm not quite sure Woolfolk or Mag ultimately are skilled enough to be or remain starters or impact players/specialists, off the bench.
Good analysis, breakdown and insight into our team, where we're coming from and where we're trying to get to.
 
Not there anymore with Derek. Was a big defender of his with the 2 vs 3 analytics debate because I thought his 10-15 foot pull up would be cash a lot more than it would be clang. But after these games both Mississippi State , Longhill , Princeton , it is obvious his 2 point shooting in volume is not good enough.
Instead , we have to move the ball better , quicker , side to side , then dribble penetration then the guards have to find Cliff for the love of God. Our guards seem like the worst in the nation finding our scoring options , Aundre , Cliff , Gavin . Bad bad guard play. Hoping JMike is healthy again because I think he has a chance to correct the problem. He played with ACE last year and knew how to get the ball to the best option on the court.
We have to immediately ( I have saying it for 3-4 games now ) correct the rebounding problem and correct the easier problem the defensive glass and our players have to jump and leap and actually go for rebounds. Pike should have corrected by now but it hasn’t been . Offensively we have to hit the glass better and Cliff and Mag and Aundre and Wolf when in there have to get more offensive rebounds and put backs. We are clanging the shots at less than 30 % so those rebounds have to be cleaned up so full speed alert to crash the glass.
Shorten the bench hopefully that we are back in BIG 10 play that will happen but Pike wanted to see what he had in Choi and Oskar and we have seen enough and neither plays unless teams play exclusively zone and Oskar provides another 3 point shot but in the Big 10 almost everyone plays man to man. Use Pick and Roll properly and play inside out and let Cliff dish out to Aundre or Gavin or Noah for 3’s. That will get us competitive again. Without the above , we are in trouble.
This is a great post and it’s everything we don’t but should do but the way this team appears s to be coached we can’t do these things!!
Also we did have a lot of open 3 pointers we just CANT shoot!!
Cliff is a black hole in so many ways he can’t get position and rarely kicks the ball back out!!
As we also know he probably has the worst hands of any big man I’ve ever seen play
 
You would not say that if you saw oskar yesterday

His attitude on the court was remencent of the attitude off the court during the minny debacle last year

I want guys on the court who want to ball.

Oskar …failed thsr miserably yesterday as a 5th year guy who is supposed to be setting a damn example

Oskar …meet bench .
And he was the one who caused JMuchaels injury in the previous game!!
 
As a fan base, we need to accept a few things: (1) talent generally shows itself on the floor; (2) it sometimes takes players longer to “get it” than hoped for; and (3) Gavin is super talented. With that in mind, anyone checking out on Gavin is crazy. We need to be doubling down on him.
 
4. Sometimes players bust

Gavin could need time or he could be a bust. I honestly am not sure. Good chance he turns it around to be a very good offensive player.
 
This season is about default minutes, unfortunately. Guys play right now because we have no one better.

Last season we were light on talent but made up for it with chemistry and connectedness. The whole was greater than the sum of its parts - until we lost a key cog in that wheel, and the machine started grinding. It happened to have been Mag, but I don't think the rest-of-the-season loss of any of our key cogs would have had any better result.

This season is marked by disconnectedness. The guys on this board cheering the departure of our continuity have what they asked for - a bunch of undersized guys with 'potential' to play faster. The results are what they are. There's no continuity, no flow, no buy-in, no team concepts. It's a bunch of individuals out there, none of which has the talent to take over a game and be dominant.

If this team doesn't start working together as a unit and trusting each other, no amount of changes to the rotation will matter.

Unfortunately, Fernandes isn't what we expected - he isn't a catch-and-shoot threat AT ALL, he over-dribbles, he's hesitant, he doesn't yet trust his teammates enough to give them the ball quickly and in rhythm, and he can't overcome his size differential offensively to get to the rim and score (or get to the line).

Simpson is what he was last year - not the small window at the end of last year, but what we saw throughout last year. There hasn't been some miraculous growth from freshman to sophomore year - just more minutes and shots. He loves a dumb shot (the 15ft jumper) and hasn't figured out how to get to the rim and convert penetration into points.

Davis has looked good early on, but he's like a much better Miller - except he also struggles to score, suffering from the same problems of Fernandes and Simpson in overcoming his size disadvantage to get to the rim. Plus, he hasn't been a good FT shooter when he does take it to the tin.

Omoruyi needs a team around him, and he doesn't really have one. He needs guards who can feed him, and ours have struggled with that. Of anyone, he misses Mulcahy/Spencer the most.

Hyatt is what he is, though he's been playing a bit better this season as the "best offensive player on the team" - which is also largely by default, because our better offensive players have left or lost their playmakers.

Griffiths is working on it, but not there yet - and we may need to fight through some growing pains to give him more minutes, because it's not like he has superstars ahead of him in the rotation.

Mag's been down a bit from last year, mostly in his FG%. He was a "key cog in the wheel" last year, but this year I haven't even really seen a wheel to be a cog in.

Williams doesn't look like he belongs, Woolfolk is getting default minutes behind Omoruyi, and Palmquist is the "in case of foul trouble break glass" guy. Chol is barely worth even mentioning.

None of these guys are working together, though, and shoring up each other's gaps. None are really trusting each other and moving the ball. At many times yesterday it felt like these guys just met each other before the game and were trying to figure each other out.

It really feels like there needs to be a players-only meeting to get on the same page with each other, and they need to adopt a true underdog toughness if they're going to start righting the ship.

This is an outstanding summary and probably the best post that I have read on the teams predicament right now
 
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