Gavin Griffiths - Freshman Season Projection
- Thread starter Scangg
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Gavin is long and can jump so I'm hopeful he will be a plus rebounder. I think he will be a sneaky good at offensive boards with some put back dunks
Gavin is also a willing passer from the full game I did watch when he played at the RAC. Specifically remember a play where he drove to the lane, stopped, and slipped a nice bounce pass to the big man
Another over under of note would be his 3 point percentage... not sure what a fair line would be for a sniper freshman who is likely to shoot a high volume of 3's.... maybe 37.5?
Gavin is also a willing passer from the full game I did watch when he played at the RAC. Specifically remember a play where he drove to the lane, stopped, and slipped a nice bounce pass to the big man
Another over under of note would be his 3 point percentage... not sure what a fair line would be for a sniper freshman who is likely to shoot a high volume of 3's.... maybe 37.5?
Yea I remember noticing that too. The lost art of boxing out. You know Pike loves to see it!
I would think the ceiling for Gavin on points and rebs would be Gradey Dick, consensus top 25, but Gavin might have a few more assists than Gradey last year.
14.1pts, 5.1reb, 1.7asts.
www.sports-reference.com
I voted over 11.5pts gut feeling, Gavin will be the third or fourth offensive option taking turns with Derek behind Hyatt and Cliff untill Mag is 💯, so maybe 11.5 to 13.5pts, 3.9 to 4.9reb, maybe 2.0 to 2.5asts would be a decent projection for his stats based on his ability to shoot and make 3s at a high volume instead of twos.
14.1pts, 5.1reb, 1.7asts.
Gradey Dick College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
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I voted over 11.5pts gut feeling, Gavin will be the third or fourth offensive option taking turns with Derek behind Hyatt and Cliff untill Mag is 💯, so maybe 11.5 to 13.5pts, 3.9 to 4.9reb, maybe 2.0 to 2.5asts would be a decent projection for his stats based on his ability to shoot and make 3s at a high volume instead of twos.
My guess , is the will be a little more balanced
Assuming that jerimah is inegibke
I see
Cliff 14.0
Gavin 10.5
Hyatt 10.0
Fernandez 10.0
Simpson 9.0
Mag 8.0
A wiliams 4.0
Wolfolk 3.0
Jmike 2.0
Chol /Palm 2.0
TotAl 74.5
So Gavin 10.5
Assuming that jerimah is inegibke
I see
Cliff 14.0
Gavin 10.5
Hyatt 10.0
Fernandez 10.0
Simpson 9.0
Mag 8.0
A wiliams 4.0
Wolfolk 3.0
Jmike 2.0
Chol /Palm 2.0
TotAl 74.5
So Gavin 10.5
Took the over. I see GG taking the points that people think Hyatt scores.
I voted under but just barely is my guess. With the depth of this roster - the pts will spread across the top 9.
My guess is 11.0-11.3 pts per game
My guess is 11.0-11.3 pts per game
We are only 1 injury and 2 players people think are in the rotation that are unplayable because of D away from having no depth.
I’m not sure if anyone is playing more this 28
If anyone is gojng to be much higher than what I predict , it’s GG.
I can’t see Cliff getting less than 30.
This might be the case. I've been slowly buying into the Hyatt pre season hype, but it wouldn't be shocking if it didn't materialize
The Hyatt story is THE story going into the season. Obviously We are excited about GG. How long before Mag is Mag? How much has Simpsons shot improved? Etc. All important, but if Hyatt somehow becomes that shooter and scores a somewhat efficient 15+ points a game, that is a big deal.
11.5 is a pretty fair line Scangg. My guess is 12-13 points per game when the season is over. I’m not sure this team is going to be a lot better on offense. A few points more per game, yes, but they do not have elite scorers. Gavin may be the most talented but being a freshman in the Big Ten isn’t easy.
No surprise here, I voted over. As the season goes on I think he will be our best player and will put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. He is a great shooter, but if teams play him too tight he is taking it to the rack.
Just pace alone is going to account for much more than a few points a game.
Not saying it won’t be more up tempo but I don’t think it’s going to change to the level some are expecting. Pike seemed to start backing off those statements in more recent interviews. Rutgers has averaged between 67-70 points the last 4 years. Maybe they reach 71-73 range but I don’t see much more than that.
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If we play up tempo like Steve has been saying, more possessions, more points, even with similar offensive efficiency.
Perfect over/under. Wrapping my brain going back and forth on that number. Ultimately went under (thinking 11 6 and 3
Agree that the line is set right. 11.5 ppg would be outstanding and basically what I expect. I'm not really buying the Hyatt-hype. How much does I guy improve in year 5, coming off a year (9ppg) that was statistically well above his average (5 ppg)? Coaches say the nicest things about the guys on the bench. I think Hyatt being on par with last year is the best we can hope for. GG will be featured, will have plays run for him, will score in transition. I'm taking the over, 'cause why not be optimistic in October. I'm a little worried about rebounding. I pencil in GG for 3.5 per game. Someone else has to pick up the slack,
I get expectations for freshmen need to be tempered. I just look at the rest of our roster. He will need to fill the offensive space Spencer left and quite frankly he may have the ability to get a decent amount more shots up.
I think just 15ppg (let alone 15+) for an entire season is a wildly high estimate for Hyatt.
He's only scored 15 pts in 3 games in his career.
RHJ only averaged 15.8ppg his last season.
I agree. Don’t get me wrong. But the reports have been just glowing. From subjective observations to objective practice data. I’m just saying if this all translates to the games, look out.
The reports are always glowing this time of the year. Everyone looks great, put on lots of muscle, is shooting so much better, and then the season starts and reality sets in . . .
I remember back when Kiss transfered the board loved it and I wasn't seeing it. Then he was the best shooter on the team hype all off season so I bought into the hype
My bullish scenario on Hyatt is mostly due to my theory of him not getting along with Paul, and the lack of Paul's presence makes him feel more at ease and confident. The mental side is huge and often overlooked. Confidence is everything
Disagree. The word on Hyatt (right or wrong) is atypical for even this time of year. Our own Ritchie has spoken at length on Hyatt and in a different manner than he has others on the team.
Didn’t kiss take his team further in the dance than we made it. Or at least as far as we did. He was a pretty solid player.
He thrived at a much much lower level. He was not good in the B1G and fell wayyy down the depth chart
PPG is based on likely shot attempts per game and "pecking order"....last years order was broken because we had subpar starting guards who couldn't get transition baskets or assists in transition.
Pike and the staff have 4 quicker guards (Jeremiah Williams, Fernandes, Simpson and Davis), mixed with Austin Williams to push passes up court......those players will raise the PPG of Gavin, Cliff and Hyatt......
Once teams adjust and get back in transition to slow down Gavin shooting early in the shot clock, then the PPG or shots will shift to a more traditional balanced attack.
It's why Michigan State is projected Top 5 in the country for preseason, without a true lock NBA guard or forward on their roster. They have 8 players on their roster that can get double figures in any B1G or Power 5 opponent.
For RU to hit what I believe is a 21 to 23 win benchmark, don't look at Gavins 3 PT percentage, it is going to be much lower than Cam Spencer's last year. The difference is Gavin has extended range, a much quicker release and is just a better overall player in all aspects.
I can see Gavin averaging upwards of 16 to 17PPG in OOC games and settling in around 13 to 13.5 PPG. Simpson and Fernandes will then need to make plays driving to the basket and taking pull up 2s.....which is what Griffiths will open up driving lanes for.
I would pencil in RU for the Sweet 16, if Jeremiah Williams gets a waiver claim and is back by January, because he is the perfect compliment on offense AND defense to supplement what Gavin does.
In terms of Hyatt, Fernandes, Simpson and even Mag, all of those players need to be comfortable as the 3rd to 5th options in shot attempts behind Gavin and Cliff (1 & 1A). If that happens as I think it will, the PPG should look like this.
Cliff 16.5
Griffiths 13.5
Hyatt 11.5
Simpson 8 PPG
Fernandes 8PPG
Davis 5 PPG
Mag 5 PPG
(bench of Austin Williams, Palmquist, Woolfolk, Chol, Ogbole 10PPG).
Any of our core bench players in Austin Williams, Palmquist, Woolfolk, Chol can get RU 8 points in any potential matchup or game, which is why my projected upside and win totals are much higher than last season). All starts with finding 15 to 16 shot attempts per game for Griffiths. He's too talented of a shooter/scorer to have been playing behind any of the guards in place last season....the more minutes and shots he takes, the more upside the 2024-25 season becomes for RU.
Pike and the staff have 4 quicker guards (Jeremiah Williams, Fernandes, Simpson and Davis), mixed with Austin Williams to push passes up court......those players will raise the PPG of Gavin, Cliff and Hyatt......
Once teams adjust and get back in transition to slow down Gavin shooting early in the shot clock, then the PPG or shots will shift to a more traditional balanced attack.
It's why Michigan State is projected Top 5 in the country for preseason, without a true lock NBA guard or forward on their roster. They have 8 players on their roster that can get double figures in any B1G or Power 5 opponent.
For RU to hit what I believe is a 21 to 23 win benchmark, don't look at Gavins 3 PT percentage, it is going to be much lower than Cam Spencer's last year. The difference is Gavin has extended range, a much quicker release and is just a better overall player in all aspects.
I can see Gavin averaging upwards of 16 to 17PPG in OOC games and settling in around 13 to 13.5 PPG. Simpson and Fernandes will then need to make plays driving to the basket and taking pull up 2s.....which is what Griffiths will open up driving lanes for.
I would pencil in RU for the Sweet 16, if Jeremiah Williams gets a waiver claim and is back by January, because he is the perfect compliment on offense AND defense to supplement what Gavin does.
In terms of Hyatt, Fernandes, Simpson and even Mag, all of those players need to be comfortable as the 3rd to 5th options in shot attempts behind Gavin and Cliff (1 & 1A). If that happens as I think it will, the PPG should look like this.
Cliff 16.5
Griffiths 13.5
Hyatt 11.5
Simpson 8 PPG
Fernandes 8PPG
Davis 5 PPG
Mag 5 PPG
(bench of Austin Williams, Palmquist, Woolfolk, Chol, Ogbole 10PPG).
Any of our core bench players in Austin Williams, Palmquist, Woolfolk, Chol can get RU 8 points in any potential matchup or game, which is why my projected upside and win totals are much higher than last season). All starts with finding 15 to 16 shot attempts per game for Griffiths. He's too talented of a shooter/scorer to have been playing behind any of the guards in place last season....the more minutes and shots he takes, the more upside the 2024-25 season becomes for RU.
Hyatt needs to do 1 of 2 things to get points and minutes people expect
1. Shoot 40+% from 3 and not turn it over
2. Improve defense
When he stopped making shots he found himself behind Oskar on depth charts. I honestly find it frightening that most people are penciling him for 25+ MPG and 10+ PPG. We have seen 2 years of Hyatt and this will be his 6th season.
1. Shoot 40+% from 3 and not turn it over
2. Improve defense
When he stopped making shots he found himself behind Oskar on depth charts. I honestly find it frightening that most people are penciling him for 25+ MPG and 10+ PPG. We have seen 2 years of Hyatt and this will be his 6th season.
If Rutgers is a tournament team, I believe Noah Fernandes is going to have to be a big time contributor.
Add jamichael Davis being much better than his rankings may indicate...to be honest, this stuff isn't hard to believe imo..you can watch all of these guys play and see the potential for exactly what pikel is saying...Hyatt was a 4 star, a lot of being a scorer is confidence, maybe those shots we see him miss are starting to fall. But that one and palmquist remains to be seen. Not hard to believe at all...
Tournament time, guards like Fernandes are built for the tournament. Just have to make it there and an attacking lead guard can win you a round or 2..
Has he been backing off of that? I was at Geo’s event at the Barn last Friday and pretty quickly lost count of the number of times Pike and the team made reference to their speed and playing more uptempo.
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