How do you see this team finishing the season?

[cubuffsdoug]

This team has 5 returning starters on defense. The unit was ranked 90s overall in total defense. They are switching from a 4/3 defense to a 3/4. Depth is an issue across the board on defense.

On offense they return 3 starters on the offensive line. Both QB who have a combine QB rating the worst among power 5 schools since 2008 to go along with almost 30 INT. Gone are your top 2 RB (combined 1500 yds) and leading WR. The 4 returning experience receivers combine for around 1000 yds and less than 100 receptions.

How do you see their season playing out?

 

[Abro1975]

A comeback win at Maryland. Deja Vu. All over again.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

A comeback win at Maryland. Deja Vu. All over again.

HaHa. You're funny[winking]

 

[knightfan7]

The one thing they probably have over RU is their QB's are a bit better with their legs. Maryland has real issues just like Indiana, Illinois, PSU, and just about everyone in the B1G. Have to think Michigan and Iowa are the only teams that appear set on both sides of the ball Even OSU with so many new starters has to wonder what they'll see at least early on.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

The one thing they probably have over RU is their QB's are a bit better with their legs. Maryland has real issues just like Indiana, Illinois, PSU, and just about everyone in the B1G. Have to think Michigan and Iowa are the only teams that appear set on both sides of the ball Even OSU with so many new starters has to wonder what they'll see at least early on.

You hit the nail on the head. I just can understand why the experts and the general public keep repeating how teams like Maryland, Indiana, Illinois, PSU, and even Minnesota are just head and shoulders above Rutgers. I'm not saying Rutgers goes out and smack those teams around, but let's not count Rutgers as an easy win. Btw, Maryland's QB had success running the ball because their RB took pressure off them. Now that both RB are gone look for teams to focus more on them. I willing to bet their QB will have less success running the ball. Look for even more problems in the passing game. I would take Laviano over both of Maryland's QB any day.

 

[RUChoppin]

Well, if they start the season against an FCS school, a school that finished last season 0-12, a school whose five wins in the prior season came against an FCS program and four others that went (12-36), and a school that finished last season (2-10).... they'll probably start the season 4-0.

247 has their schedule as the 4th weakest in the country among P5 teams.

 

[oldman87]

I can easily see a 7-8 win streak to end the season.

 

[knightfan7]

Well, if they start the season against an FCS school, a school that finished last season 0-12, a school whose five wins in the prior season came against an FCS program and four others that went (12-36), and a school that finished last season (2-10).... they'll probably start the season 4-0.

247 has their schedule as the 4th weakest in the country among P5 teams.

But that doesn't make them a better team which is the point.

 

[Extra Point]

This team has 5 returning starters on defense. The unit was ranked 90s overall in total defense. They are switching from a 4/3 defense to a 3/4. Depth is an issue across the board on defense.

On offense they return 3 starters on the offensive line. Both QB who have a combine QB rating the worst among power 5 schools since 2008 to go along with almost 30 INT. Gone are your top 2 RB (combined 1500 yds) and leading WR. The 4 returning experience receivers combine for around 1000 yds and less than 100 receptions.

How do you see their season playing out?

Rutgers has the best running backs ever. What two are you talking about? James and Peoples? That QB stat doesn't sound right either. Nova threw a lot of interceptions but he wasn't here last year.

 

[knightfan7]

Rutgers has the best running backs ever. What two are you talking about? James and Peoples? That QB stat doesn't sound right either. Nova threw a lot of interceptions but he wasn't here last year.

Just in case my sarcasm meter is broken, he's talking about Maryland.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Just in case my sarcasm meter is broken, he's talking about Maryland.

ExtraPoint

I'm pointing out the weaknesses of a Rutgers' opponent. There are just as glaring as Rutgers, yet everyone overlooks it without a valid reason.

 

[oldman87]

I must admit, I read it wrong like extrapoint, was wondering who were the 2 top RBs we lost. :joy:

 

[knightfan7]

I must admit, I read it wrong like extrapoint

Yeah but you have an excuse. We all know the mind wanders when you get older. As a matter of fact................................

Wait, what was I saying?

 

[Extra Point]

Just in case my sarcasm meter is broken, he's talking about Maryland.

haha nope wasn't sarcasm I bad. I thought "This team" was Rutgers.

 

[DJ Spanky]

I'm pointing out the weaknesses of a Rutgers' opponent. There are just as glaring as Rutgers, yet everyone overlooks it without a valid reason.

Maryland has a good basketball program, so obviously their football team must be pretty good.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Yeah but you have an excuse. We all know the mind wanders when you get older.

Ummmmmmmm.................what mind?

 

[knightfan7]

Ummmmmmmm.................what mind?

Just because he's old is no reas

Boy strong thunderstorms around right now.

Phil had issues today at Troon but I still think he'll win.

Now where did I leave my socks?

 

[RUChoppin]

But that doesn't make them a better team which is the point.

True, but the question was about we saw their season playing out, not if we felt that would be a better team than us. They'll probably start out with 4 straight wins, then get PA St away and Minnesota at home.... to potentially start 5-1 or better. They also get us at home to end the season.

They have an easier path to more wins than we do.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I'm with cubuffsdoug on this

I don't get it with the positive vibes with certain schools and not others

While I remain concerned about relative talent levels for second and third ash years ...the first 30 players we roll out there ...only see Michigan and Ohio state having so much more talent than us ...and Michigan state, Iowa and penn stare are ahead of us but no so far ahead of us that if we being A game we can't pull an upset

The rest of the schedule our first 30 players is cod parable to what we are playing

Staying healthy matters for us as in concerned about the quality of player after number 30 for us, improving qb play and causing turnovers again

But I don't see us getting steam rolled like the magazines suggest unless we really have problems taking to the new styles of football or we get a lot of injuries again

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Had I put Maryland's name up front, then the reaction would have been different...but, but, but they're MARYLAND. A lot of the times when you list facts about teams without revealing the names, everyone's perception change. Without Maryland's name out front I believe few of you could believe that was them. I can lay the same thing out for Illinois, Indiana, PSU and Minnesota. If Rutgers can get its QB situation straighten out, it could be a nice opening act for Ash. Overall Rutgers is as talented if not more in several positions when compared to these teams.

 

[RUBand]

Major improvements in mental focus/many less penalties, steady improvement and development throughout the season. Wins and losses - who knows.

 

[knightfan7]

I'm with cubuffsdoug on this

I don't get it with the positive vibes with certain schools and not others

While I remain concerned about relative talent levels for second and third ash years ...the first 30 players we roll out there ...only see Michigan and Ohio state having so much more talent than us ...and Michigan state, Iowa and penn stare are ahead of us but no so far ahead of us that if we being A game we can't pull an upset

The rest of the schedule our first 30 players is cod parable to what we are playing

Staying healthy matters for us as in concerned about the quality of player after number 30 for us, improving qb play and causing turnovers again

But I don't see us getting steam rolled like the magazines suggest unless we really have problems taking to the new styles of football or we get a lot of injuries again

I see Iowa being up there with UM and OSU. Remember OSU has more new starters than anyone in the B1G. Now, they may be really good players and many are experienced but there's still going to be questions till they prove it. Iowa had a good number of starters back and a pretty darn good QB.

The question at PSU is how does the new QB respond to being the starter, their OL, and just how do they replace their 3 outstanding Dlinemen. If their LB's are healthy it will help.

Michigan State has a number of key players to replace on both sides of the ball. The former backup QB appears to be solid. From all I read they may have the best staff in the B1G which helps.

It may be the fan in me but other than the top 3 I don't see RU having to concede anything to the rest of the teams in the B1G portion of the schedule.

 

[RUChoppin]

Had I put Maryland's name up front, then the reaction would have been different...but, but, but they're MARYLAND. A lot of the times when you list facts about teams without revealing the names, everyone's perception change. Without Maryland's name out front I believe few of you could believe that was them. I can lay the same thing out for Illinois, Indiana, PSU and Minnesota. If Rutgers can get its QB situation straighten out, it could be a nice opening act for Ash. Overall Rutgers is as talented if not more in several positions when compared to these teams.

I just see them with an easier path to more wins, especially early in the season when we'll both be sorting through new systems, starters, etc.

Our first four: @Washington (25), Howard (243), New Mexico (107), Iowa (23), @OSU (4), Michigan (5)

Our new staff and team concept is getting tested early and often, with just two games in the first half of the season against teams ranked outside last year's Sagarin Top 25.

Their first four: Howard (243), @UCF (183), @FIU (130), Purdue (98), @PA St (48), Minnesota (67)

Their schedule sets up perfectly for a team that has a lot of question marks and a new staff... they gradually increase the difficulty over the first four games, but still no one that's really that good. Then two more games with teams ranked below 45th nationally last year. The difficult part of their schedule is back-loaded, after they've had 4-6 games to get themselves established.

 

[Knight Shift]

I just see them with an easier path to more wins, especially early in the season when we'll both be sorting through new systems, starters, etc.

Our first four: @Washington (25), Howard (243), New Mexico (107), Iowa (23), @OSU (4), Michigan (5)

Our new staff and team concept is getting tested early and often, with just two games in the first half of the season against teams ranked outside last year's Sagarin Top 25.

Their first four: Howard (243), @UCF (183), @FIU (130), Purdue (98), @PA St (48), Minnesota (67)

Their schedule sets up perfectly for a team that has a lot of question marks and a new staff... they gradually increase the difficulty over the first four games, but still no one that's really that good. Then two more games with teams ranked below 45th nationally last year. The difficult part of their schedule is back-loaded, after they've had 4-6 games to get themselves established.

First 4 or 6?

Preseason rankings?
2015
Georgia 9, end unranked
Arkansas 10, end unranked
Texas A&M, 11, end unranked
UCLA 12, end unranked
USC 13, end unranked
Auburn 18, end unranked
Arizona State 20, end unranked
Miss. State 22, end unranked
Georgia Tech 23, end unranked
Missouri 24, end unranked

Pollsters tend or over rank SEC and PAC 12 teams preseason.

No argument on Maryland's first four games. Good possibility they go 1-0 for 4 weeks, and we will no doubt have posters wetting their pants over DJ Durkin and saying how we should have hired him, the same way we had Randy Edsall fanboys here.

 

[RUChoppin]

First 4 or 6?

Preseason rankings?
2015
Georgia 9, end unranked
Arkansas 10, end unranked
Texas A&M, 11, end unranked
UCLA 12, end unranked
USC 13, end unranked
Auburn 18, end unranked
Arizona State 20, end unranked
Miss. State 22, end unranked
Georgia Tech 23, end unranked
Missouri 24, end unranked

Pollsters tend or over rank SEC and PAC 12 teams preseason.

No argument on Maryland's first four games. Good possibility they go 1-0 for 4 weeks, and we will no doubt have posters wetting their pants over DJ Durkin and saying how we should have hired him, the same way we had Randy Edsall fanboys here.

Wasn't talking about preseason rankings, those were the final 2015 Sagarin rankings.

 

[RUChoppin]

First 4 or 6?

Preseason rankings?
2015
Georgia 9, end unranked
Arkansas 10, end unranked
Texas A&M, 11, end unranked
UCLA 12, end unranked
USC 13, end unranked
Auburn 18, end unranked
Arizona State 20, end unranked
Miss. State 22, end unranked
Georgia Tech 23, end unranked
Missouri 24, end unranked

Pollsters tend or over rank SEC and PAC 12 teams preseason.

No argument on Maryland's first four games. Good possibility they go 1-0 for 4 weeks, and we will no doubt have posters wetting their pants over DJ Durkin and saying how we should have hired him, the same way we had Randy Edsall fanboys here.

Agree, though, that if Maryland goes 4-0, there will be people slobbering all over Durkin on this board, with myself and others saying "what did you expect with who they played?". It'll get even more fun if they manage to start 5-1 and we start 2-4... : preemptive facepalm:

 

[MikeRU09]

7-5 and scaring the shit out of a lot of teams we barely lose to. A bowl win of course lol...

 

[HailHailToMichigan]

I have Maryland starting 4-0 and finishing 4-8.

 

[Knight Shift]

Wasn't talking about preseason rankings, those were the final 2015 Sagarin rankings.

My bad.
Don't want to quibble too much on as Sunday afternoon, but what good are final Sagarin rankings from the previous season when evaluating competition for the next season?

At the Dallas police officer memorial service, Pres. Bush said this:
'Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions'

Turning that quote around for Rutgers fans:
'Too often, we judge Rutgers football by our worst players and statistics while judging our competition by their best players and statistics'
Sagarin rankings provide a better predictor of next season's success, but not infallible.

2014 Final Sagarin with 2015 final Sagarin

1 Ohio State 3
2 TCU 7
3 Alabama 1
4 Oregon 20
5 Georgia 23
6 Michigan State 17
7 Baylor 8
8 Mississippi 6
9 Mississippi State 18
10 Arkansas 15
11 Auburn 29
12 Georgia Tech 54
13 Clemson 2
14 LSU 13
15 Missouri 62
16 Florida State 8
17 Kansas State 64
18 Stanford 5
19 UCLA 26
20 Wisconsin 19
21 Southern California 14
22 Texas A&M 33
23 Marshall 66
24 Utah 24
25 Arizona State 41
26 Florida 28
27 Tennessee 10
28 Oklahoma 4
29 Nebraska 42
30 Louisville 34
47 Iowa 22
60 Michigan 9
74 Houston 21
77 North Carolina 16

Several low ranked teams outperformed their final 2014 Sagarin ranking. I like the Houston example the best.

 

[rutgersdave]

Just because he's old is no reas

Boy strong thunderstorms around right now.

Phil had issues today at Troon but I still think he'll win.

Now where did I leave my socks?

How old is considered old? 70 or 80?

 

[RUChoppin]

My bad.
Don't want to quibble too much on as Sunday afternoon, but what good are final Sagarin rankings from the previous season when evaluating competition for the next season?

At the Dallas police officer memorial service, Pres. Bush said this:
'Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions'

Turning that quote around for Rutgers fans:
'Too often, we judge Rutgers football by our worst players and statistics while judging our competition by their best players and statistics'
Sagarin rankings provide a better predictor of next season's success, but not infallible.

2014 Final Sagarin with 2015 final Sagarin

1 Ohio State 3
2 TCU 7
3 Alabama 1
4 Oregon 20
5 Georgia 23
6 Michigan State 17
7 Baylor 8
8 Mississippi 6
9 Mississippi State 18
10 Arkansas 15
11 Auburn 29
12 Georgia Tech 54
13 Clemson 2
14 LSU 13
15 Missouri 62
16 Florida State 8
17 Kansas State 64
18 Stanford 5
19 UCLA 26
20 Wisconsin 19
21 Southern California 14
22 Texas A&M 33
23 Marshall 66
24 Utah 24
25 Arizona State 41
26 Florida 28
27 Tennessee 10
28 Oklahoma 4
29 Nebraska 42
30 Louisville 34
47 Iowa 22
60 Michigan 9
74 Houston 21
77 North Carolina 16

Several low ranked teams outperformed their final 2014 Sagarin ranking. I like the Houston example the best.

Well, you have to go with something - and since preseason rankings are inherently biased, I usually go by the calculated rankings of the prior year. And yes, there are teams that do see wild swings, but for the most part you don't.

Of the 250 teams that were in Sagarin's list in both 2014 and 2015:
- 31% finished 2015 within 10 ranks of where they finished 2014
- 44% finished within 15 ranks
- 56% finished within 20 ranks
- 65% finished within 25 ranks

Looking just at improvement:
- 36% improved by more than 10 ranks
- 23% improved by more than 20 ranks
- 15% improved by more than 30 ranks

Of those that jumped at least 30 ranks, only 9 schools jumped into the Top 50 (4%), and 73% started ranked over 100th.

Outliers do exist. Houston, for instance, jumped 53 ranks. They were one of just 17 teams to make that big of a jump (7%), and one of just 3 teams to make a jump of at least 50 ranks and find themselves in the Top 50 (the others were: Michigan jumped from 60 to 9 and UNC jumped from 77 to 16).

 

[rubaseball78]

Defense will be significantly better just based on better schemes alone. No more lining DBs 8 yds off line of scrimmage on 3rd and 5.

 

[koleszar]

I have Maryland starting 4-0 and finishing 4-8.

Finally, a well thought out researched prediction. I totally agree with this. Maryland basically plays St. Mary's School of the Blind for the 1st 4 games then reality hits. They will be starting a crew of QB's that combined hit 47% comp./ 15 TDs / 29 int. They only return 5 on offense. They'll be starting a crappy D from last year that lost 6 starters.

But despite all that the experts say they're going to improve to 6-6. Durkin must have become an offensive genius in the off season or their expecting a helluva lot of improvement from 1st time starters. These same experts then turn around and say RU's not going to improve and is actually going to regress during the coaching transition. Isn't Maryland going through a similar transition?

 

[RUChoppin]

Finally, a well thought out researched prediction. I totally agree with this. Maryland basically plays St. Mary's School of the Blind for the 1st 4 games then reality hits. They will be starting a crew of QB's that combined hit 47% comp./ 15 TDs / 29 int. They only return 5 on offense. They'll be starting a crappy D from last year that lost 6 starters.

But despite all that the experts say they're going to improve to 6-6. Durkin must have become an offensive genius in the off season or their expecting a helluva lot of improvement from 1st time starters. These same experts then turn around and say RU's not going to improve and is actually going to regress during the coaching transition. Isn't Maryland going through a similar transition?

I expect them to open 4-0, too, because those teams aren't very good - and even struggling to put all the pieces together early in the season, they should win. Their swing games are Minnesota, @Indiana and Rutgers... win 2 of 3, and they go bowling, and they get two at home.

 

[RUChoppin]

Well, you have to go with something - and since preseason rankings are inherently biased, I usually go by the calculated rankings of the prior year. And yes, there are teams that do see wild swings, but for the most part you don't.

Of the 250 teams that were in Sagarin's list in both 2014 and 2015:
- 31% finished 2015 within 10 ranks of where they finished 2014
- 44% finished within 15 ranks
- 56% finished within 20 ranks
- 65% finished within 25 ranks

Looking just at improvement:
- 36% improved by more than 10 ranks
- 23% improved by more than 20 ranks
- 15% improved by more than 30 ranks

Of those that jumped at least 30 ranks, only 9 schools jumped into the Top 50 (4%), and 73% started ranked over 100th.

Outliers do exist. Houston, for instance, jumped 53 ranks. They were one of just 17 teams to make that big of a jump (7%), and one of just 3 teams to make a jump of at least 50 ranks and find themselves in the Top 50 (the others were: Michigan jumped from 60 to 9 and UNC jumped from 77 to 16).

Taking a look at the differences between 2013 to 2014...
- 32% finished 2014 within 10 ranks of where they finished 2013
- 43% finished within 15 ranks
- 54% finished within 20 ranks
- 60% finished within 25 ranks

Looking just at improvement:
- 36% improved by more than 10 ranks
- 25% improved by more than 20 ranks
- 19% improved by more than 30 ranks

Of those that jumped at least 30 ranks, only 10 jumped into the Top 50 (4%), and 87% started ranked over 100th. As for outliers like Houston from the year prior, 27 teams made that big of a jump (10%), and 6 jumped into the Top 50 (2%).

So, over two years of data, it's fairly consistent. Prior year performance is a decent predictor, though in no way perfect. Approximately 75% of schools do not improve more than 20 ranks from year to year, and approximately 65% do not improve more than even 10 ranks from year to year. The vast majority of "Big Jump" schools (moving 50 places or more) start ranked lower than 100th, and only a very small percentage of those land themselves in the Top 50.

 

[beaced]

I just have a very strong feeling that this Coaching Staff will extract and develop the very best talent that each of our players have within themselves.These kids will break their butts to measure up to the Coaches' expectations of them. It is indeed a new day for RUTGERS and it will be very interesting to watch this Season unfold. Rewarding too.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Defense will be significantly better just based on better schemes alone. No more lining DBs 8 yds off line of scrimmage on 3rd and 5.

Yes and no. Even if we start the DB's from last season, they're bigger, stronger, more experienced, and have had the chance to actually practice the schemes before playing a game. Because of the shenanigans last year they didn't have the luxury of that last item. However, we lost our whole linebacking core - how that unit progresses is, in my opinion, how our defense overall progresses.

Agree, though, that if Maryland goes 4-0, there will be people slobbering all over Durkin on this board, with myself and others saying "what did you expect with who they played?". It'll get even more fun if they manage to start 5-1 and we start 2-4... : preemptive facepalm:

Which one would you like?

or

 

[RUChoppin]

Yes and no. Even if we start the DB's from last season, they're bigger, stronger, more experienced, and have had the chance to actually practice the schemes before playing a game. Because of the shenanigans last year they didn't have the luxury of that last item. However, we lost our whole linebacking core - how that unit progresses is, in my opinion, how our defense overall progresses.


Which one would you like?

or

I'll take the Batman one, because it looks to accurately reflect repeatedly beating my head against a wall first.

 

[rubaseball78]

"Yes and no. Even if we start the DB's from last season, they're bigger, stronger, more experienced, and have had the chance to actually practice the schemes before playing a game. Because of the shenanigans last year they didn't have the luxury of that last item. However, we lost our whole linebacking core - how that unit progresses is, in my opinion, how our defense overall progresses."

Still believe we will be better with the new schemes and tackling.

 

[Pritz99]

One bad season last year undid the good of the inaugural season. Nobody remembers that year. The off the field issues accentuated it all and all but undid all the Schiano years of very few issues and terrific APRs. And that bad season confirmed what so many critics felt when we first entered (regardless of that first season): we aren't B1G material.

So many teams cash in on the B1G mystique because they've been in for so long while we're newcomers. But Maryland? I don't understand. I think Rutgers is just not thought of well. That was changing under Schiano, but Flood did nothing to further that. In fact, we lost huge amounts of ground. We're not getting it back in a season no matter how well we perform on the field.

And if Vegas also thinks we're that bad and you all think we're that good, then make some bets. Nothing will soften the blow of disrespect as well as heavy cash in the pocket.