1. What happened to the threads from 2014? Is there an archive?
2. I wanted to bump the thread I started just before B1G play began when I used the points for and against as a predictor of winning percentage. My recollection is that the model predicted four losses in conference play, and the team ended with six losses. So I looked at conference play to predict the post season. The Scarlet Knights scored 1201 points while their opponents scored 1121 points. This predicts 72%-76% winning percentage. At the start of post-season play, there were a maximum of 10 games to be played (four B1G and six NCAA) and a maximum of two losses to be incurred. Making the B1G final and losing would have given a 3-1 record going into the NCAA tournament. This would have left 3-1, projecting a loss in the Elite Eight. Going 1-1 in the B1G tournament leaves 5-1, projecting a loss in the Championship Game. For another Final, I can take the 0-2 record against Northwestern and the loss against Michigan State.
3. As for Northwestern--they seemed to be a particular nemesis this year--I ran their numbers for conference play: 1266 points scored and 1216 points against for 64%-67% winning percentage. Curiously, RU's median points per game was 68.5 and conference opponents' median points against RU was 60.5. Northwestern's medians were 69 (for) and 68 (against). RU really should not have lost both games to Northwestern. Was this a match-up problem? I predicted one loss to Northwestern in my original post predicting the conference record, but both? I will offer that the B1G tournament game had an officiating component that may have influenced the outcome of the game (in accordance with views expressed on this board). Thoughts?
This post was edited on 3/15 12:37 PM by ea_1
This post was edited on 3/15 12:49 PM by ea_1
2. I wanted to bump the thread I started just before B1G play began when I used the points for and against as a predictor of winning percentage. My recollection is that the model predicted four losses in conference play, and the team ended with six losses. So I looked at conference play to predict the post season. The Scarlet Knights scored 1201 points while their opponents scored 1121 points. This predicts 72%-76% winning percentage. At the start of post-season play, there were a maximum of 10 games to be played (four B1G and six NCAA) and a maximum of two losses to be incurred. Making the B1G final and losing would have given a 3-1 record going into the NCAA tournament. This would have left 3-1, projecting a loss in the Elite Eight. Going 1-1 in the B1G tournament leaves 5-1, projecting a loss in the Championship Game. For another Final, I can take the 0-2 record against Northwestern and the loss against Michigan State.
3. As for Northwestern--they seemed to be a particular nemesis this year--I ran their numbers for conference play: 1266 points scored and 1216 points against for 64%-67% winning percentage. Curiously, RU's median points per game was 68.5 and conference opponents' median points against RU was 60.5. Northwestern's medians were 69 (for) and 68 (against). RU really should not have lost both games to Northwestern. Was this a match-up problem? I predicted one loss to Northwestern in my original post predicting the conference record, but both? I will offer that the B1G tournament game had an officiating component that may have influenced the outcome of the game (in accordance with views expressed on this board). Thoughts?
This post was edited on 3/15 12:37 PM by ea_1
This post was edited on 3/15 12:49 PM by ea_1
