Why isn't anyone talking about the Nebraska game yet? Just two days away and it's a winnable road game, which makes it huge for RU. Has RU ever started 2-1 in the B1G?
Nebraska
- Thread starter ecojew
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I agree with you. It’s a huge game in helping to determine if we are for real like we played against Wisconsin and Seton Hall or the same ole’ Rutgers. We failed the first two similar games against St. Bona and Pitt - below average teams away from home. Road games in the B1G are going to be very tough and this is one of the best chances to grab one. We have the better team and I expect a very close game but I think we squeak one out.
Rutgers has yet to show the ability to win on the road. because of the lack of consistent scoring from Baker,Harper and Yeboah.This is a winnable game because Nebraska has a roster of new players but they have defeated Purdue at home.
We are still basking in the glow of the Caldwell victory and are unable to move on
I think the whole road game thing is stretching beyond common sense. Beating the best teams on the schedule far outweighs any road loss or potential "bad loss".
Under no circumstances would we want to equate losses to Bona and Pitt on the road, to wins over SFA, Wisconsin and Seton Hall.
Newsflash.....Penn State is a bigger game than Nebraska when it comes to whatever goals of the NCAAS are out there. If a choice of which game RU has to want to win, it is Penn State by a landslide.
In theory, we shouldn't have a bad loss the rest of the year on the road after Nebraska, because RU is almost certainly an underdog in every road game the rest of the season.
Get Nebraska in the win column Friday and avoid losing to Nebraska when they come to the RAC. Winning as many home games holds the keys to making the dance. Home losses are worse than road losses.
Under no circumstances would we want to equate losses to Bona and Pitt on the road, to wins over SFA, Wisconsin and Seton Hall.
Newsflash.....Penn State is a bigger game than Nebraska when it comes to whatever goals of the NCAAS are out there. If a choice of which game RU has to want to win, it is Penn State by a landslide.
In theory, we shouldn't have a bad loss the rest of the year on the road after Nebraska, because RU is almost certainly an underdog in every road game the rest of the season.
Get Nebraska in the win column Friday and avoid losing to Nebraska when they come to the RAC. Winning as many home games holds the keys to making the dance. Home losses are worse than road losses.
Both games coming up are huge.
Beating Nebraska on the road signifies we can win away from the RAC and we continue to win the winnable games. Losing a game like this at this juncture is not a good look
Beating Penn State signifies we are real and we can beat ranked teams
The road to the Dance is on big time and feasible if we win both games!
Beating Nebraska on the road signifies we can win away from the RAC and we continue to win the winnable games. Losing a game like this at this juncture is not a good look
Beating Penn State signifies we are real and we can beat ranked teams
The road to the Dance is on big time and feasible if we win both games!
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Yup. Can’t be thinking about Penn State right now. Nebraska is the only game on the schedule until Saturday.
RU won 3 B1G road games last year.....there is no relevance to losing in Toronto or at Pittsburgh to what happens the rest of the season.
And most of this roster has won on the road, just last year at Penn State, at Northwestern and at Iowa, who was ranked at #22 at that time.
What has to happen regardless of the Nebraska result, is defending home court vs PSU. If you beat Nebraska and lose to PSU, you're worse off than the other way around.
I think RU finds a way to win vs Nebraska but I also think it will be forgotten about, 15 minutes after the game ends......it will be written off as if Nebraska didn't beat Purdue at home or didn't take Indiana to overtime on the road......all I hear about or read about is not beating North Dakota or that they're 5-7.
The next steps aren't about Nebraska on the road....it's about whether RU can go 8-2 @ the RAC in 10 B1G games....and can they find a road win that isn't named Nebraska, when they're going to be an underdog the rest of the way on the road.
And most of this roster has won on the road, just last year at Penn State, at Northwestern and at Iowa, who was ranked at #22 at that time.
What has to happen regardless of the Nebraska result, is defending home court vs PSU. If you beat Nebraska and lose to PSU, you're worse off than the other way around.
I think RU finds a way to win vs Nebraska but I also think it will be forgotten about, 15 minutes after the game ends......it will be written off as if Nebraska didn't beat Purdue at home or didn't take Indiana to overtime on the road......all I hear about or read about is not beating North Dakota or that they're 5-7.
The next steps aren't about Nebraska on the road....it's about whether RU can go 8-2 @ the RAC in 10 B1G games....and can they find a road win that isn't named Nebraska, when they're going to be an underdog the rest of the way on the road.
I love when people say this. Two teams play the games. And there are always upsets in college hoops. And it is tough to win on the road.
There always are excuses for teams that lose.How valid the excuses are is part of the discussion on message boards.
I'd disagree...I'd say there are reasons... not excuses.
For RU to go to the NCAA tourney this year, there is a very small margin of error.
If they want a chance to dance, they can't lose either game to Nebraska or home to NW(3-0). Yes, they are 0-2 on the road but they were a different team in November than they are going into January. I really think moving Yeboah to the starting lineup against Wisky made a B1G difference in the makeup of this team. They've started every game strong since. 2016-17 (1-8) 2017-18 (0-9) 2018-19 (3-7). Yes they are 4-24 on the road in 3 years but 3 wins were last year, including a 14 pt win at a ranked Iowa team and only one blowout loss @ Purdue all of last year. They were 5-4-1 at half on the road last year and blew 3 leads in the 2nd half. That experience will go a long way this year than anything that has happened this season thus far.
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They need to play stellar defense, share the ball on O, keep Myles out of foul trouble and be relentless on the boards the rest of the way...the wins will come. This team is capable if they stay focused!
It’s not a must win, but can we just have a pleasant road surprise for once? Can we have a early big 10 road win for once? Imagine how pumped up the rac will be on the 7th with a road win as momentum.
I agree that it is not a must win, but I have seen this story play out for a Rutgers team in the past. Either they play awful and lose by 15 or more and the board is in meltdown mode. Or they look good but fall short and we write to each other trying to convince ourselves that the silver linings in the loss are good enough and that “someday” it will all come together and we’ll win these types of games.
Let’s win this type of game right now.
I agree that it is not a must win, but I have seen this story play out for a Rutgers team in the past. Either they play awful and lose by 15 or more and the board is in meltdown mode. Or they look good but fall short and we write to each other trying to convince ourselves that the silver linings in the loss are good enough and that “someday” it will all come together and we’ll win these types of games.
Let’s win this type of game right now.
you are really downplaying winning on the road. If RU goes 0-12 on the road this year, its going to be tough to get a bid no matter who they beat at the RAC. Nebby is pretty much a must win given their loss to St Bonnies and failing to take down Pitt. If RU is serious about making the leap to ncaa tourney team you dont lose this game because if you lose it and you sit near the bubble, these are the losses that get pointed at. Rutgers isnt Purdue, they dont have the name and they dont have the sos ooc of 13. Rutgers needs to worry about Rutgers.
RU can survive a loss to Penn State at the RAC because they have them on the road later in the year as another opportunity. The performances vs St Bonnies and Pitt were pretty brutal. RU played okay at MSU but they were really no threat to win that game. Alot of questions right now for a program that feasted on mostly lesser at home
Here are my thoughts on this: This is a season that can go either way. The expectations shouldn't be through the roof, but they shouldn't be to the bottom of the basement either. I'm trying to enjoy each game as it comes. Just because they lose to Nebraska doesn't mean the NCAAs is lost, but also winning doesn't mean a guarantee. This is a fun year. Who knows how it's going to go.
I also realize we should only think about Nebraska right now. When the game is over we can think about Penn State.
I watched Nebraska 3 times in mid November and they were fun to watch.
They want to play fast. They run, even after opponents made baskets. It was like watching an ACC team.
The Cornhuskers have the No. 24 ranked adjusted tempo in the Nation.
Salt Lake C.C. transfer point guard Cam Mack is electric in the open court. He was an inconsistent perimeter shooter back then, only making around 28 percent of his threes but he has improved considerably since Thanksgiving.
Dachon Burke, Haanif Cheatham and Jervay Green get out in transition, run HARD and try to get to the cup to score.
They will probably have more than ten possessions with three dribbles or less. Some with zero dribbles.
Nebraska averages 1.157 points per transition possession, down from 1.37 earlier this season, but still good enough to rank in the 92nd percentile nationally.
Nebraska is primarily a man-to-man defensive team that is active in passing lanes and traps the low post. They have used zone less than 8 percent of the time but when they do, at least when I scouted them, it is a compact 2-3 zone.
Rutgers must play great transition defense to slow down Nebraska and make them play a half-court game. And the rebounding battle by +8 or more and make shots.
They want to play fast. They run, even after opponents made baskets. It was like watching an ACC team.
The Cornhuskers have the No. 24 ranked adjusted tempo in the Nation.
Salt Lake C.C. transfer point guard Cam Mack is electric in the open court. He was an inconsistent perimeter shooter back then, only making around 28 percent of his threes but he has improved considerably since Thanksgiving.
Dachon Burke, Haanif Cheatham and Jervay Green get out in transition, run HARD and try to get to the cup to score.
They will probably have more than ten possessions with three dribbles or less. Some with zero dribbles.
Nebraska averages 1.157 points per transition possession, down from 1.37 earlier this season, but still good enough to rank in the 92nd percentile nationally.
Nebraska is primarily a man-to-man defensive team that is active in passing lanes and traps the low post. They have used zone less than 8 percent of the time but when they do, at least when I scouted them, it is a compact 2-3 zone.
Rutgers must play great transition defense to slow down Nebraska and make them play a half-court game. And the rebounding battle by +8 or more and make shots.
Solid analysis as always. Thanks Russ
Didn't care for it when Bruce first released it but I have grown to like it over time.
If RU isn't beating Nebraska on the road, who are they beating? I get every game is a bit different, but Friday is by far the most winnable road conference game.
Spot on comments.Rutgers needs to change perception of opponents that they are a easy win on the road based on past history.This game gives Rutgers the best chance for a league road win which would then build momentum for future games.Road wins are important in receiving post season tournament bids.
We beat Miami, PSU, Northwestern, Iowa on the road last year. If Pike and the team can somehow get to .500 on the road, I'd say we have a good shot at the post season.
Friday is a big test for Geo and the boys. I hope Young and Tez are up to the task to slow down their guards. Go RU !
Friday is a big test for Geo and the boys. I hope Young and Tez are up to the task to slow down their guards. Go RU !
The team has to continue to improve as the season progresses like last year and it may seem so farfetched that this is the best shot for a road win.
The path is winning at Nebraska and becoming more competitive in road games where they're going to be underdogs. The game at Iowa last year is being blown off as fans here as some nonentity or it didn't happen, just because it wasn't this season. And I know Miami, Northwestern and Penn State aren't exactly places that are Mackey Arena, Assembly Hall or Williams Arena, but you have to start somewhere on the road.
I remain confident that this roster and program will be better 30 days from now vs today and these 18 games should be looked at as an entire group vs isolated games being treated as some watershed moment.
There's no starting manual with instructions on how this process will happen. Just keep in mind, 12 months ago, the mantra was RU was going to be 2-18 in B1G play after barely beating Columbia in OT, had no chance of getting out of the basement and the concept of a road win was comedy.
Now we are discussing paths towards NIT or NCAAS bubble and others are foaming at the mouth in general because the overall news for RU in the last 30 to 40 days has been positive and some are conditioned to be negative RU fans....and they are ready to pounce on the inevitable hiccup that assuredly is going to happen.
Enjoy the process folks.....
The path is winning at Nebraska and becoming more competitive in road games where they're going to be underdogs. The game at Iowa last year is being blown off as fans here as some nonentity or it didn't happen, just because it wasn't this season. And I know Miami, Northwestern and Penn State aren't exactly places that are Mackey Arena, Assembly Hall or Williams Arena, but you have to start somewhere on the road.
I remain confident that this roster and program will be better 30 days from now vs today and these 18 games should be looked at as an entire group vs isolated games being treated as some watershed moment.
There's no starting manual with instructions on how this process will happen. Just keep in mind, 12 months ago, the mantra was RU was going to be 2-18 in B1G play after barely beating Columbia in OT, had no chance of getting out of the basement and the concept of a road win was comedy.
Now we are discussing paths towards NIT or NCAAS bubble and others are foaming at the mouth in general because the overall news for RU in the last 30 to 40 days has been positive and some are conditioned to be negative RU fans....and they are ready to pounce on the inevitable hiccup that assuredly is going to happen.
Enjoy the process folks.....
Nebraska seems to be very guard heavy, with their top 5 scorers all listed as guards (between 6-3 and 6-6). There are only two guys (both freshmen) who are over 6-6 and over 210 lbs that see any time, starter Ouedraogo (6-9, 260 from France, 20.8 min, 6.2 pts, 6.4 rbs) and backup Kevin Cross (6-8, 240, 18.8 min, 6.8 pts, 4.3 rbs). That seems to be the extent of the bigs in their rotation.
I'd hope that we can get Johnson going underneath against these two - and keep him out of foul trouble. If they're trapping the low post when he gets touches, that should open up looks from outside for Yeboah, McConnell, Baker, and Harper. There should definitely be penetrate-and-dish opportunities that benefit Johnson, too.
Have to make sure we keep an eye on Thorbjarnson outside, but the rest of the team doesn't seem to be that strong behind the arc. They have a few players that seem to get to the line a lot, with Mack/Cheatham/Burke/Ouedraogo all averaging at least 3.0 attempts per game (we have just Harper with 3.2), so we have to be careful with foul trouble - especially with Johnson trying to contest penetration.
Hoping our defense travels with us, and we come out aggressive from the locker room as we have against our last few D-I teams. Will be interesting to see how the game is officiated, though - too tight a whistle could be bad for us, and more of a let-them-play approach would play more to our favor than theirs, I'd think.
Also hope that Young got over whatever "yips" he may have had with the Caldwell walkthrough, and has learned that the penetrate-and-dish approach will get him further than trying to push too hard to do it all himself. Also curious to see the growth of Mulcahy as a backup, being able to put in quality minutes against a high major road opponent.
I'd hope that we can get Johnson going underneath against these two - and keep him out of foul trouble. If they're trapping the low post when he gets touches, that should open up looks from outside for Yeboah, McConnell, Baker, and Harper. There should definitely be penetrate-and-dish opportunities that benefit Johnson, too.
Have to make sure we keep an eye on Thorbjarnson outside, but the rest of the team doesn't seem to be that strong behind the arc. They have a few players that seem to get to the line a lot, with Mack/Cheatham/Burke/Ouedraogo all averaging at least 3.0 attempts per game (we have just Harper with 3.2), so we have to be careful with foul trouble - especially with Johnson trying to contest penetration.
Hoping our defense travels with us, and we come out aggressive from the locker room as we have against our last few D-I teams. Will be interesting to see how the game is officiated, though - too tight a whistle could be bad for us, and more of a let-them-play approach would play more to our favor than theirs, I'd think.
Also hope that Young got over whatever "yips" he may have had with the Caldwell walkthrough, and has learned that the penetrate-and-dish approach will get him further than trying to push too hard to do it all himself. Also curious to see the growth of Mulcahy as a backup, being able to put in quality minutes against a high major road opponent.
If you bottle half of the production of the last couple of home games for Young, Mulcahy and McConnell off the bench for the road, RU will be practically every game the rest of the season.
the Thor guy they have just sits in the corner and buries threes
Young and Mathis will take turns on Cam Mack, key to the game. it's nice having two good on ball defenders when their highest usage guy is their PG.
side note from their board sounds like transfer they have who was starting, Jervay Green, having chemistry issues (to put it mildly) and was actually suspended for cple games as well. he comes off the bench now and Thor starts.
Young and Mathis will take turns on Cam Mack, key to the game. it's nice having two good on ball defenders when their highest usage guy is their PG.
side note from their board sounds like transfer they have who was starting, Jervay Green, having chemistry issues (to put it mildly) and was actually suspended for cple games as well. he comes off the bench now and Thor starts.
Essentially the rest of the season is a series of 50-50, 60-40, and 70-30 games.
70% (or more): @Nebraska, vs. Nebraska, vs. Northwestern
60%: vs. Indiana, vs. Minnesota, vs. Illinois
The numbers would roughly say we go 4-2 in these games.
40%: @ Illinois, MSG vs. Michigan, @ Wisconsin
30%: @ Iowa, @ Penn State
Worse than 30%: @ Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Purdue
The numbers would roughly say we go 3-6 in these games.
50%: vs. Penn State, vs. Purdue, vs. Michigan
The numbers would have this as either 2-1 or 1-2.
Then it becomes a matter of which set of games we overachieve or underachieve in relative to the numbers.
Here are some scenarios:
DREAM: We go 5-1 in the first set and either 5-4 in the second set plus 2-1 in the toss-ups or 4-5 in the second set and sweep the toss-ups. This has us at 13-7 with major national media attention.
OVERACHIEVE #1: We go 5-1 in the first set, 4-5 in the second set with an extra road win over a tournament team, and 1-2 in the toss-ups. This gets us to 11-9 and likely solidly IN.
OVERACHIEVE #2: We go 5-1 instead of 4-2 in the first set, win 2/3 of the toss-ups, and still go 3-6 in the middle set. This gets us to 11-9 but still on the bubble because of a lack of quality wins (if the 3-6 is beating Michigan at MSG, at Wisconsin, and maybe at an Illinois team that craters, for example)
BASE CASE: 4-2 in the first set, 3-6 in the second set, and either 2-1 or 1-2 in the toss-ups. This gets us to either 10-10 or 9-11 and we're either one of the last two teams in the dance or we make the NIT.
UNDERACHIEVE: We only go 3-3 in the first set and either go 2-7 in the middle set and 1-2 in the third set OR 3-6 in the middle set but 0-3 in the toss-ups. This has us at 7-13 and on the NIT bubble.
NIGHTMARE: We go 3-3 in the first block, 1-8 in the second block, and drop all three toss-ups. We finish at 5-15 and the season is seen as a significant step back.
70% (or more): @Nebraska, vs. Nebraska, vs. Northwestern
60%: vs. Indiana, vs. Minnesota, vs. Illinois
The numbers would roughly say we go 4-2 in these games.
40%: @ Illinois, MSG vs. Michigan, @ Wisconsin
30%: @ Iowa, @ Penn State
Worse than 30%: @ Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Purdue
The numbers would roughly say we go 3-6 in these games.
50%: vs. Penn State, vs. Purdue, vs. Michigan
The numbers would have this as either 2-1 or 1-2.
Then it becomes a matter of which set of games we overachieve or underachieve in relative to the numbers.
Here are some scenarios:
DREAM: We go 5-1 in the first set and either 5-4 in the second set plus 2-1 in the toss-ups or 4-5 in the second set and sweep the toss-ups. This has us at 13-7 with major national media attention.
OVERACHIEVE #1: We go 5-1 in the first set, 4-5 in the second set with an extra road win over a tournament team, and 1-2 in the toss-ups. This gets us to 11-9 and likely solidly IN.
OVERACHIEVE #2: We go 5-1 instead of 4-2 in the first set, win 2/3 of the toss-ups, and still go 3-6 in the middle set. This gets us to 11-9 but still on the bubble because of a lack of quality wins (if the 3-6 is beating Michigan at MSG, at Wisconsin, and maybe at an Illinois team that craters, for example)
BASE CASE: 4-2 in the first set, 3-6 in the second set, and either 2-1 or 1-2 in the toss-ups. This gets us to either 10-10 or 9-11 and we're either one of the last two teams in the dance or we make the NIT.
UNDERACHIEVE: We only go 3-3 in the first set and either go 2-7 in the middle set and 1-2 in the third set OR 3-6 in the middle set but 0-3 in the toss-ups. This has us at 7-13 and on the NIT bubble.
NIGHTMARE: We go 3-3 in the first block, 1-8 in the second block, and drop all three toss-ups. We finish at 5-15 and the season is seen as a significant step back.
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Russ,
Thanks for the analysis.
Why are you scouting Nebraska?
Is your points per possession in transition a raw number or adjusted for competition?
Thanks for the analysis.
Why are you scouting Nebraska?
Is your points per possession in transition a raw number or adjusted for competition?
What happens when he is guarded by an athletic body who won't give him space? What happens when he is forced to guard someone who is quick off the dribble?
There will be matchups in the B1G when he will be OK, but what happens when he sees a Pitt like scenario.
Should be interesting.
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