Nebraska

[RUChoppin]

What happens when he is guarded by an athletic body who won't give him space? What happens when he is forced to guard someone who is quick off the dribble?

There will be matchups in the B1G when he will be OK, but what happens when he sees a Pitt like scenario.

Should be interesting.

One of the thing's he's struggled with offensively is the speed of defenses closing out passing lanes. He's very good at finding the open man, but there's much less margin for error on passes against longer, faster, and more experienced defenses. Defending fast, athletic guards is also something he really needs to improve at - but I feel the more experience he has playing that type of guard at game speed, the better he'll become.

Right now, though, he just needs to give us 10-12 minutes of solid backup guard play to keep Baker fresh, imo.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Right now, though, he just needs to give us 10-12 minutes of solid backup guard play to keep Baker fresh, imo.

We would have finished .500 last year with just that

 

[kcg88]

Essentially the rest of the season is a series of 50-50, 60-40, and 70-30 games.

70% (or more): @Nebraska, vs. Nebraska, vs. Northwestern

60%: vs. Indiana, vs. Minnesota, vs. Illinois

The numbers would roughly say we go 4-2 in these games.

40%: @ Illinois, MSG vs. Michigan, @ Wisconsin

30%: @ Iowa, @ Penn State

Worse than 30%: @ Maryland, @ Ohio State, @ Purdue

The numbers would roughly say we go 3-6 in these games.

50%: vs. Penn State, vs. Purdue, vs. Michigan

The numbers would have this as either 2-1 or 1-2.

Then it becomes a matter of which set of games we overachieve or underachieve in relative to the numbers.

Here are some scenarios:

DREAM: We go 5-1 in the first set and either 5-4 in the second set plus 2-1 in the toss-ups or 4-5 in the second set and sweep the toss-ups. This has us at 13-7 with major national media attention.

OVERACHIEVE #1: We go 5-1 in the first set, 4-5 in the second set with an extra road win over a tournament team, and 1-2 in the toss-ups. This gets us to 11-9 and likely solidly IN.

OVERACHIEVE #2: We go 5-1 instead of 4-2 in the first set, win 2/3 of the toss-ups, and still go 3-6 in the middle set. This gets us to 11-9 but still on the bubble because of a lack of quality wins (if the 3-6 is beating Michigan at MSG, at Wisconsin, and maybe at an Illinois team that craters, for example)

BASE CASE: 4-2 in the first set, 3-6 in the second set, and either 2-1 or 1-2 in the toss-ups. This gets us to either 10-10 or 9-11 and we're either one of the last two teams in the dance or we make the NIT.

UNDERACHIEVE: We only go 3-3 in the first set and either go 2-7 in the middle set and 1-2 in the third set OR 3-6 in the middle set but 0-3 in the toss-ups. This has us at 7-13 and on the NIT bubble.

NIGHTMARE: We go 3-3 in the first block, 1-8 in the second block, and drop all three toss-ups. We finish at 5-15 and the season is seen as a significant step back.

Now that the second Nebraska game is here...

We're 3-0 against the first set, with three remaining (vs. Nebraska, vs. Northwestern, vs. Illinois). Vs. Illinois is looking tougher now than three weeks ago. If we beat Nebraska and Northwestern then we'll be at least 5-1 in the first set, which would hit the overachievement threshold.

We're 0-2 in the middle set, with six remaining. Some of the percentages have switched (at Purdue is looking easier, for example) but the numbers hold up overall. Still looking to go at least 3-6 in this set of games, but that'd mean 3-4 from here on. The Iowa or Illinois game would've been big for breathing room.

And we're 1-0 in the toss-ups.

So far the NIGHTMARE scenario is ruled out, and the UNDERACHIEVE scenario isn't looking terribly likely either.