OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

[Frida's Boss]

how you presumed that from the eight words I typed..I’m not sure.

viruses get worse in the winterS it’s a fact. And that’s a huge reason it’s getting worse.

You tried to dismiss the weather impact on COVID transmission by saying it’s no different than any other virus. it increases when it’s cold out. that argument fails to consider the contagiousness of COVID versus other virus, and the risk of serious illness or death of COVID compared to other viral infections. That’s why your point that all viral infections increase in colder weather is irrelevant. Just as your initial point that we shouldn’t care as much about an incremental 200,000 deaths since we lose that same number in ordinary circumstances in a month is not perspective. it’s just an irrelevant statistical comparison that adds nothing to the policy surrounding containment of the disease.

When you compare states with comparable weather conditions where public health measures are more closely followed, you clearly see less severe spikes in cases, infection rates, and hospitalizations. It’s what every credible infectious disease expert has predicted as far back as the early summer.

 

[mikemarc1]

Are you going to start that whole silly argument again? FL is slightly higher on the COVID tracker, while apparently today's Cuomo presser has NY slightly higher - they're essentially the same. If I had to guess, NY's better compliance with masking is being cancelled by FL still being warm with far more outdoor activities.

why is it a silly argument? Cause it goes against the narrative?

 

[RU848789]

how you presumed that from the eight words I typed..I’m not sure.

viruses get worse in the winterS it’s a fact. And that’s a huge reason it’s getting worse.

Viruses don't technically "get worse" in the winter - they're largely unchanged. What changes is human behavior (with people much more indoors in the winter, significantly increasing transmission rates) and human physiology in response to humidity, wherein mucosal membranes tend to not filter out pathogens, like viruses, as well during low humidity indoors, which is much more typical in winter. Also, as @Frida's Boss has said, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is significantly more contagious than the influenza virus - that's why flu infection rates plummeted in the southern hemisphere this past winter (our summer), but COVID didn't necessarily, especially in South America.

 

[Frida's Boss]

why is it a silly argument? Cause it goes against the narrative?

it’s been explained to you already.

 

[mikemarc1]

it’s been explained to you already.

so a state with warm weather and less strict health measures is faring better (as far as hospitalizations as of tonight) than a state with cold weather and very strict health measures.

can one not make an argument weather is more important factor?

 

[RU848789]

why is it a silly argument? Cause it goes against the narrative?

No, it's silly because you're cherry-picking data. For the past several months, FL's hospitalization rates were significantly above NY's and NY only reached FL's level today (and they're essentially equal now), so saying NY's are greater is disingenuous. NY's is increasing a bit faster, so it's likely to go higher soon - then you can make your claim.

 

[Frida's Boss]

so a state with warm weather and less strict health measures is faring better (as far as hospitalizations as of tonight) than a state with cold weather and very strict health measures.

can one not make an argument weather is more important factor?

Not a compelling arguement, since changing weather conditions is not a tool of public health. the population of a given state can’t move south for the winter and enjoy more outdoor time and comparatively less indoor time.

the appropriate comparison would be to look at areas with similar weather conditions. then, you will be able better isolate the adherence to public health measures. When you do that, the results are quite obvious.

 

[mikemarc1]

Not a compelling arguement, since changing weather conditions is not a tool of public health. the population of a given state can’t move south for the winter and enjoy more outdoor time and comparatively less indoor time.

the appropriate comparison would be to look at areas with similar weather conditions. then, you will be able better isolate the adherence to public health measures. When you do that, the results are quite obvious.

Your comparison will show how well the health measures are. And I’m sure there will be a huge difference. Not disagreeing at all.

my scenario shows what plays a bigger role.

 

[Frida's Boss]

Your comparison will show how well the health measures are. And I’m sure there will be a huge difference. Not disagreeing at all.

my scenario shows what plays a bigger role.

But it’s not meaningful in a way that can make a difference. We can’t make it summer all year round in NJ. And we ca’t send the population south for the winter. We have to focus on what we can control, and dismissing public health measures because the spread is less severe in summer than winter isn’t helpful.

 

[RUBOB72]

Well, you’ve been misinformed. First, the number of cases has skyrocketed. Second, no one credible said that mask wearing as a “cure.” They said it was the most effective way, along with social distancing, to slow the spread. Not eliminate the spread.

What he told you is correct... not only has he shown actual stats most medical tell the survival rates are for the most endangered better than 95% and probably 98.8% up to age 74... admittedly it is a highly and easily transmitted disease but hyped simply to inject unneeded fear in the public as well as affect the presidential election. Social distance and mask wearing preached by the liberal Dems to the public but for some unknown reason they don’t follow their own advice .

 

[Frida's Boss]

What he told you is correct... not only has he shown actual stats most medical tell the survival rates are for the most endangered better than 95% and probably 98.8% up to age 74... admittedly it is a highly and easily transmitted disease but hyped simply to inject unneeded fear in the public as well as affect the presidential election. Social distance and mask wearing preached by the liberal Dems to the public but for some unknown reason they don’t follow their own advice .

No, it’s not correct. Survival rates are not the statistic to focus on since the virus is so contagious. Even a low mortality rate will lead to a very high number of deaths, as we have seen and will soon be unnecessarily reinforced.

 

[RUBOB72]

An extra 100k deaths would make a horrible, unnecessary tragedy a far worse tragedy.

He repeated what was said by the government officials most informed about the pandemic. Let’s hope he continues to do so.

Sure keep focusing on the morons who vacillate from day to day... it’s now become boring and comical... and I would suspect the vaccines will be delayed simply because of politics and greed ... Europe already approving Pfizer and a 2 nd one... here’s the best ... over 65 is considered highly vulnerable grouping yet may not be offered the vaccines until late spring...

 

[mikemarc1]

But it’s not meaningful in a way that can make a difference. We can’t make it summer all year round in NJ. And we ca’t send the population south for the winter. We have to focus on what we can control, and dismissing public health measures because the spread is less severe in summer than winter isn’t helpful.

I never said to dismiss them. Agree that would not be helpful.

what would be helpful is more transparency from local leaders. Not blaming in this rise 100% on the actions of people.

 

[RU848789]

Nice to hear that former Presidents Bush and Obama will get in line to get early vaccines, very publicly, to encourage the masses to do the same.

 

[RUBOB72]

No, it’s not correct. Survival rates are not the statistic to focus on since the virus is so contagious. Even a low mortality rate will lead to a very high number of deaths, as we have seen and will soon be unnecessarily reinforced.

It looks pretty reliable looking at what he posted ... as good as the BS we have seen in news print for months about positivity rates, hospitalization increases and deaths . The daily positivity rates are there because of increases in testing daily and weekly. Yet deaths are down at this time. Could change either way and we shall see. What’s wonderful is states like NJ and NY still are front runners in total deaths . How could that possibly be? Over the top restrictions, schools on zoom, mask wearing , social distancing ....truth is people are doing a good job contrary to what the news media allows out to the public ...

 

[RUBOB72]

Nice to hear that former Presidents Bush and Obama will get in line to get early vaccines, very publicly, to encourage the masses to do the same.

Should Obama and other politicians under age 65 get the vaccine before a first responder, hospital / medical personnel, police, military , nursing homes and those with underlying conditions? By my calculations he should be eligible by rhe Fall of 2021.

 

[Greg2020]

Trevor also says masks work and so do lockdowns and that covid is much worse than the flu

 

[Greg2020]

Dude,

You're a funny guy. Looks like you are good at being an idiot.

How about one of them is a lifelong friend who works in the field and is very knowledgable about infectious diseases? Him and many of his colleagues believe covid was created in a lab. And he is not a conspiracy theorist and is very conservative. He tells me the virus has too many traits of being manipulated by man and can't be natural.

Very conservative= conspiracy theorist.

 

[Greg2020]

he said 200K deaths between now and January um no...and even if you give him the benefit of the doubt til the end of January no...if we have 2K deaths a day for 2 months that would be 60K...and saying that there will be 2k deaths a day is a pure guess anyhow, we have a spike now of 2700 but there is no guarantee that is happening everyday

stop making excuses

Redfeld seems absurd as well. Thats 180K more deaths where are they coming from...its fear mongering and it should not exist, we had enough of that for 6 months

2k per day for 2 months is 120k you dunce.

 

[Greg2020]

you know what else is a falsehood.....250K more deaths in 29 days, we are running 11K behind Biden's pace and we are just 2 days into the month

what about that it would be gone by easter. What was that?

 

[Greg2020]

to put things into perspective, on average we lose 200,000 people every month even without covid.

do you post that about 9/11 too, or about any of the wars we have had, pearl harbor?

 

[RU848789]

Sure keep focusing on the morons who vacillate from day to day... it’s now become boring and comical... and I would suspect the vaccines will be delayed simply because of politics and greed ... Europe already approving Pfizer and a 2 nd one... here’s the best ... over 65 is considered highly vulnerable grouping yet may not be offered the vaccines until late spring...

Barring some unexpected problem with the vaccines, your fears are unfounded. It's expected that ~20MM health care workers and ~3MM LTC residents will be vaccinated by the end of December or early January and then all other front-line workers and people over 65 (who want them) should get vaccines by the end of March with half of the US being vaccinated by the end of April, as vaccines become generally available, according to Goldman Sachs and other sources.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/gol...kly-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-rolled-out.html

Vaccine approval and rollout would lead to “significant public health benefits” from the first quarter of next year, the economists added, with half of the population of the U.S. and Canada likely to be vaccinated in April.

 

[mikemarc1]

do you post that about 9/11 too, or about any of the wars we have had, pearl harbor?

no. Life went on after all those events. We didn’t hide for 10 months

 

[Greg2020]

no. Life went on after all those events. We didn’t hide for 10 months

For 9/11 we implemented new things to interfere with people's lives such as security measures which are very intrusive, and we still have today 19 years later. The stock exchange and much of the city was closed for around a week. WE have as many covid deaths per every other day the last few months as 9/11. For pearl harbor we literally put Japanese Americans in camps for 4 years, and went into a war where millions of young Americans suffered overseas in horrible conditions, and people back home had to ration their supplies and food and the like. So no that is not true.

 

[mikemarc1]

For 9/11 we implemented new things to interfere with people's lives such as security measures which are very intrusive, and we still have today 19 years later. The stock exchange and much of the city was closed for around a week. WE have as many covid deaths per every other day the last few months as 9/11. For pearl harbor we literally put Japanese Americans in camps for 4 years, and went into a war where millions of young Americans suffered overseas in horrible conditions, and people back home had to ration their supplies and food and the like. So no that is not true.

ok I’ve been alive for two wars and 9/11..and life went on pretty much as normal after all 3. Though of course many many families suffered

 

[RU848789]

he said 200K deaths between now and January um no...and even if you give him the benefit of the doubt til the end of January no...if we have 2K deaths a day for 2 months that would be 60K...and saying that there will be 2k deaths a day is a pure guess anyhow, we have a spike now of 2700 but there is no guarantee that is happening everyday

stop making excuses

Redfeld seems absurd as well. Thats 180K more deaths where are they coming from...its fear mongering and it should not exist, we had enough of that for 6 months

You really need math help. 2000 deaths/day x 62 days = 124K deaths, not 60K deaths. And Biden said 250K more deaths over the next 2 months, which would be about 4000/day. I think that's way high - I even think the 180K more that CDC head Redfield said we could have over the next 2 months (3000/day roughly) is too high. My guess is Biden is looking at some worst case scenarios and trying to get everyone's attention, which is not unusual in public health circles when trying to convince people to change behaviors. Worst credible case scenarios are often used in disaster planning too. I don't love it, as I like trying to provide the most accurate estimate with a credible worst case alongside it.

 

[RU848789]

Should Obama and other politicians under age 65 get the vaccine before a first responder, hospital / medical personnel, police, military , nursing homes and those with underlying conditions? By my calculations he should be eligible by rhe Fall of 2021.

Can you just stop making everything in this thread political? Do you really think it matters that Obama and Bush aren't in a LTC facility or a health care worker (the first two groups to get the vaccine - of course you forgot to mention Bush)? The bipartisan symbolism of both of them getting the vaccine early is far, far more important.

 

[Greg2020]

ok I’ve been alive for two wars and 9/11..and life went on pretty much as normal after all 3. Though of course many many families suffered

pretty minor wars, and life was changed forever for many. COVID will likely kill more Americans than any war has

 

[mikemarc1]

pretty minor wars, and life was changed forever for many. COVID will likely kill more Americans than any war has

lives change for many every day. The government has never deliberately changed the lives of Americans for 10 straight months

 

[mikemarc1]

Can you just stop making everything in this thread political? Do you really think it matters that Obama and Bush aren't in a LTC facility or a health care worker (the first two groups to get the vaccine - of course you forgot to mention Bush)? The bipartisan symbolism of both of them getting the vaccine early is far, far more important.

he does Have a point though, no? Why would Obama and Bush be eligible for the early vaccine?

 

[Greg2020]

lives change for many every day. The government has never deliberately changed the lives of Americans for 10 straight months

Uhm.... the civil war and the 1919 pandemic. Also most things here are open and have been for months.

 

[RU848789]

he does Have a point though, no? Why would Obama and Bush be eligible for the early vaccine?

Did you not even read my post? Of course they're not eligible right away, but the bipartisan symbolism of ex-Presidents showing confidence in the vaccine, when we have maybe 50-60% of people saying they'd get it, is priceless. In my opinion, of course, but I'm pretty sure that opinion is widely shared.

 

[FastMJ]

to put things into perspective, on average we lose 200,000 people every month even without covid.

So 150k-200k additional deaths is trivial?

 

[Frida's Boss]

I never said to dismiss them. Agree that would not be helpful.

what would be helpful is more transparency from local leaders. Not blaming in this rise 100% on the actions of people.

Well, the areas with the most significant rises, all else being equal, are areas where public health measures are not followed. So, yeah, the actions of people do dictate the severity of the spread.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Timeline for vaccine availability. I assume this will speed up when/if the J&J and Sanofi vaccines hit the market:

Warp Speed official urges patience on Covid vaccine: ‘We are not going to turn anybody away’

Warp Speed official urges patience on Covid vaccine: 'We are not going to turn anybody away'

Ret. Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski promised in a CNBC interview that everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by June.

www.cnbc.com

Operation Warp Speed’s director of supply production and distribution put out an estimated timetable on Covid-19 vaccine availability across the United States.

Ret. Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski promised in a CNBC interview that everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by June.

“This is a scenario where we are not going to turn anybody away,” he said on “The News with Shepard Smith” on Wednesday evening. “We ask the American people to understand that, because at first, it’s going to be scarce resources.”

Moncef Slaoui, chief science advisor for the White House’s Warp Speed program, told The Washington Post in a livestream interview Tuesday there could be enough doses to immunize the rest of the nearly 8 billion people in the world by early to mid-2022.

 

[bac2therac]

You really need math help. 2000 deaths/day x 62 days = 124K deaths, not 60K deaths. And Biden said 250K more deaths over the next 2 months, which would be about 4000/day. I think that's way high - I even think the 180K more that CDC head Redfield said we could have over the next 2 months (3000/day roughly) is too high. My guess is Biden is looking at some worst case scenarios and trying to get everyone's attention, which is not unusual in public health circles when trying to convince people to change behaviors. Worst credible case scenarios are often used in disaster planning too. I don't love it, as I like trying to provide the most accurate estimate with a credible worst case alongside it.

He said BETWEEN NOW AND JANUARY

do you know what BETWEEN means

 

[tom1944]

yeah whats 100K extra deaths...nah nothing wrong with gaslighting there

and again he said between now and January

He should have said 15 cases and its gone.
I mean repeating the CDC estimate is so much worse than that.

 

[WhiteBus]

Well, the areas with the most significant rises, all else being equal, are areas where public health measures are not followed. So, yeah, the actions of people do dictate the severity of the spread.

What? Rises are significant across the country. In places that never even fully opened up like Philly and we have strictly followed public health measures. I have no idea where you come up with that complete bullcrap.

 

[RU Cheese]

You really need math help. 2000 deaths/day x 62 days = 124K deaths, not 60K deaths. And Biden said 250K more deaths over the next 2 months, which would be about 4000/day. I think that's way high - I even think the 180K more that CDC head Redfield said we could have over the next 2 months (3000/day roughly) is too high. My guess is Biden is looking at some worst case scenarios and trying to get everyone's attention, which is not unusual in public health circles when trying to convince people to change behaviors. Worst credible case scenarios are often used in disaster planning too. I don't love it, as I like trying to provide the most accurate estimate with a credible worst case alongside it.

I also thought 4k daily deaths is way too high. Then this morning I read we had almost 3200 deaths yesterday. I don't see that as a steady-state figure moving forward, but I would expect it to go higher given recent / upcoming holidays.

 

[ScarletNut]

He said BETWEEN NOW AND JANUARY

do you know what BETWEEN means

You keep focusing on one statement that may be an outlier in terms of deaths as if the man is a chronic liar. Have you EVER focused on ANY lies the outgoing President ever said? The answer is no. And you’d have more instances to choose from than the amount of RU pages filling up the Syracuse boards.