OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

[bac2therac]

White Bus...Frida is making it up....there are just as many rises in states with harsh mandates

he is repeating talking points, its sad to see. His views are entirely political ya know why because I dont see him talking about outbreaks in Newark

if he checks RT numbers he will be surprised where SD and ND are compared to Oregon and Washington

The virus is virusing, it doesnt care who you voted for and what type of restrictions.

 

[bac2therac]

You keep focusing on one statement that may be an outlier in terms of deaths as if the man is a chronic liar. Have you EVER focused on ANY lies the outgoing President ever said? The answer is no. And you’d have more instances to choose from than the amount of RU pages filling up the Syracuse boards.

what so now its okay....after all this time, its fine....got it

its not an outlier he said it in September and will be wrong on that number as well. Trump has nothing to do with what Biden said yesterday. Address that....250K deaths between NOW and January...and we have people in the thread who think that means the end of January which wouldnt be right anyhow

 

[brad1218]

what so now its okay....after all this time, its fine....got it

its not an outlier he said it in September and will be wrong on that number as well. Trump has nothing to do with what Biden said yesterday. Address that....250K deaths between NOW and January...and we have people in the thread who think that means the end of January which wouldnt be right anyhow

What is your point anyway? I don’t like Biden but I don’t see what the big deal is around his statement. If he is wrong he is wrong. Bottom line is the virus numbers are going up and we should take some more caution here over the next couple months while we get the vaccines going. That’s it.

 

[ScarletNut]

what so now its okay....after all this time, its fine....got it

its not an outlier he said it in September and will be wrong on that number as well. Trump has nothing to do with what Biden said yesterday. Address that....250K deaths between NOW and January...and we have people in the thread who think that means the end of January which wouldnt be right anyhow

What the heck did you just say? Just another deflection. One man’s endless lies are ignored, yet another’s exaggeration is hyped. Yup, fair and balanced. In the meantime, the fake virus, hoax, government controlled disease that over 99% survive and has caused or contributed to over 250k deaths and projected to kill many more is not your focus. Bac is gonna virus, or is it virus is gonna bac?

 

[Knight Shift]

Weird.

 

[RU#1fan]

You keep focusing on one statement that may be an outlier in terms of deaths as if the man is a chronic liar. Have you EVER focused on ANY lies the outgoing President ever said? The answer is no. And you’d have more instances to choose from than the amount of RU pages filling up the Syracuse boards.

8000 lies and counting.
How many COVID-19 Taskforce meetings has the POTUS attended over the last 3 months. Zero
Doesn’t give a sh#t.

 

[Knight Shift]

8000 lies and counting.
How many COVID-19 Taskforce meetings has the POTUS attended over the last 3 months. Zero
Doesn’t give a sh#t.

The Vice President is in charge of the task force. He briefs the President. It's called delegation of authority.

 

[RUBOB72]

Barring some unexpected problem with the vaccines, your fears are unfounded. It's expected that ~20MM health care workers and ~3MM LTC residents will be vaccinated by the end of December or early January and then all other front-line workers and people over 65 (who want them) should get vaccines by the end of March with half of the US being vaccinated by the end of April, as vaccines become generally available, according to Goldman Sachs and other sources.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/gol...kly-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-rolled-out.html

Vaccine approval and rollout would lead to “significant public health benefits” from the first quarter of next year, the economists added, with half of the population of the U.S. and Canada likely to be vaccinated in April.

That is not what the media has been announcing numbers.. You and I have no controls over how it is distributed . I believe before the over 65 seniors ( not including nursing home patients ) there are minimums of 20-30 million amongst the other priority groups who are earmarked as first on the list. Watch how the politics will play out. I hope you are accurate but based upon our recent political fiasco I’ m not taking this as Gospel ... you know I respect your opinions but we are already not hearing any movement by the CDC / FDA on authorizations . Europe moving ahead ....USA not so much so....stay well.

 

[Knight Shift]

More LOL. Do as they say, not as thee do. Restrictions are for the little people.

Every Mayor, Governor Accused of Breaking COVID Restrictions—and Why

Austin Mayor Steve Adler joins a long list of leading politicians to have allegedly broken their own rules. Here's the rundown.

www.newsweek.com

 

[RUBOB72]

Can you just stop making everything in this thread political? Do you really think it matters that Obama and Bush aren't in a LTC facility or a health care worker (the first two groups to get the vaccine - of course you forgot to mention Bush)? The bipartisan symbolism of both of them getting the vaccine early is far, far more important.

Buddy you made it ok to be political when you posted about Obama and Biden...I didn’t mention anything but posed a simple and reasonable question to you. Then you call me out for dirtying your ” special” board with political banter. Does our former Punahou grad get it before all the others. I’m good with Joe ... but Barack is sill under age 60.

 

[RUBOB72]

Can you just stop making everything in this thread political? Do you really think it matters that Obama and Bush aren't in a LTC facility or a health care worker (the first two groups to get the vaccine - of course you forgot to mention Bush)? The bipartisan symbolism of both of them getting the vaccine early is far, far more important.

Ok ... and Bush... the reason I didn’t mention Bush is simply because YOU didn’t mention Bush...I’m good with Biden , Bush , Trump anyone over the age of 65 who wishes to get the vaccine .

 

[mikemarc1]

Did you not even read my post? Of course they're not eligible right away, but the bipartisan symbolism of ex-Presidents showing confidence in the vaccine, when we have maybe 50-60% of people saying they'd get it, is priceless. In my opinion, of course, but I'm pretty sure that opinion is widely shared.

totally agree. Researching this study further it appears they may want/get early access which would be ahead scratcher

 

[mikemarc1]

So 150k-200k additional deaths is trivial?

not at all trivial. Just nothing to fear.

 

[mikemarc1]

Well, the areas with the most significant rises, all else being equal, are areas where public health measures are not followed. So, yeah, the actions of people do dictate the severity of the spread.

never said they didn’t. But actions by people alone are not gonna stop this virus

 

[King of S]

Timeline for vaccine availability. I assume this will speed up when/if the J&J and Sanofi vaccines hit the market:

Warp Speed official urges patience on Covid vaccine: ‘We are not going to turn anybody away’

Warp Speed official urges patience on Covid vaccine: 'We are not going to turn anybody away'

Ret. Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski promised in a CNBC interview that everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by June.

www.cnbc.com

Operation Warp Speed’s director of supply production and distribution put out an estimated timetable on Covid-19 vaccine availability across the United States.

Ret. Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski promised in a CNBC interview that everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one by June.

“This is a scenario where we are not going to turn anybody away,” he said on “The News with Shepard Smith” on Wednesday evening. “We ask the American people to understand that, because at first, it’s going to be scarce resources.”

Moncef Slaoui, chief science advisor for the White House’s Warp Speed program, told The Washington Post in a livestream interview Tuesday there could be enough doses to immunize the rest of the nearly 8 billion people in the world by early to mid-2022.

Governor Cuomo stayed today he believes NY will reach herd immunity by May/June 21.

 

[RU Cheese]

he does Have a point though, no? Why would Obama and Bush be eligible for the early vaccine?

You're naive if you don't think key US personal - either of strategic importance, of interests of national security, or in this case simply being the president for 16 years - won't get or shouldn't get the vaccine first.

 

[RU848789]

Nice to hear that former Presidents Bush and Obama will get in line to get early vaccines, very publicly, to encourage the masses to do the same.

Ok ... and Bush... the reason I didn’t mention Bush is simply because YOU didn’t mention Bush...I’m good with Biden , Bush , Trump anyone over the age of 65 who wishes to get the vaccine .

At least try to read what people post. I never mentioned Biden (who I also assume will get the vaccine early and publicly). I mentioned Bush and Obama getting vaccinated early being a bipartisan effort to encourage people to get vaccinated. Neither one would be eligible to get the vaccine in the first wave, which will only be going to health care workers and the elderly in LTC facilities, but most think making an exception for them for the symbolism is a good thing

 

[RU Cheese]

At least try to read what people post. I never mentioned Biden (who I also assume will get the vaccine early and publicly). I mentioned Bush and Obama getting vaccinated early being a bipartisan effort to encourage people to get vaccinated. Neither one would be eligible to get the vaccine in the first wave, which will only be going to health care workers and the elderly in LTC facilities, but most think making an exception for them for the symbolism is a good thing

#s, despite public statements, I wouldn't be surprised / would expect there are individuals in the government who will get it immediately. I have hard time believing former president of the US would need to wait or get approval for a vaccine - I'm sure they're on "the list"

 

[mikemarc1]

You're naive if you don't think key US personal - either of strategic importance, of interests of national security, or in this case simply being the president for 16 years - won't get or shouldn't get the vaccine first.

they likely have access to the top therapies in the world. They certainly don’t deserve it

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

NJ Covid Dashboard as of today. Cases vs. Deaths. Just sharing a fact.

 

[RU848789]

he said 200K deaths between now and January um no...and even if you give him the benefit of the doubt til the end of January no...if we have 2K deaths a day for 2 months that would be 60K...and saying that there will be 2k deaths a day is a pure guess anyhow, we have a spike now of 2700 but there is no guarantee that is happening everyday

stop making excuses

Redfeld seems absurd as well. Thats 180K more deaths where are they coming from...its fear mongering and it should not exist, we had enough of that for 6 months

You really need math help. 2000 deaths/day x 62 days = 124K deaths, not 60K deaths. And Biden said 250K more deaths over the next 2 months, which would be about 4000/day. I think that's way high - I even think the 180K more that CDC head Redfield said we could have over the next 2 months (3000/day roughly) is too high. My guess is Biden is looking at some worst case scenarios and trying to get everyone's attention, which is not unusual in public health circles when trying to convince people to change behaviors. Worst credible case scenarios are often used in disaster planning too. I don't love it, as I like trying to provide the most accurate estimate with a credible worst case alongside it.

He said BETWEEN NOW AND JANUARY

do you know what BETWEEN means

The "math help" comment was on your statement that, "if we have 2K deaths a day for 2 months that would be 60K," which is clearly wrong as 62 days at 2K/day would be 124K. And "between now and January" is ambiguous - he didn't specify which day in January - but it's obvious he meant the end of January, as 250K dead in 31 days would be an insane number of over 8000/day. And as I said, even 250K in 62 days is much higher than I think it will be (at 4000/day), but it's at least a credible worst case, given yesterday's record of 3157 deaths, as per the JHU tracker, and if people don't start being more careful.

 

[RU848789]

#s, despite public statements, I wouldn't be surprised / would expect there are individuals in the government who will get it immediately. I have hard time believing former president of the US would need to wait or get approval for a vaccine - I'm sure they're on "the list"

I agree and it's also why I had no issue with President Trump getting the Regeneron antibody cocktail before even an EUA had been granted. Not sure I was ok with Christie getting it, though, as he's just a private citizen now.

 

[RU848789]

NJ Covid Dashboard as of today. Cases vs. Deaths. Just sharing a fact.

I've been predicting we'd see about 1/3 to 1/2 the hospitalizations we saw in spring in NJ and we've been seeing about 1/2 the death rate per hospitalization this past summer, due to improvements in medical procedures and treatments (and not having hospitals generally overwhelmed like they were heare in the spring), which would mean 1/4-1/6 the deaths in NJ vs. spring (at their peaks). The 7-day avg back in April was around 300/day, so that would translate to 50-75 per day if I'm correct. NY would likely see similar numbers as NJ, relatively speaking (i.e., 1/4-1/6 the death rates vs. spring).

Edit - forgot to include the updated graphic showing what I said for NJ with regard to spring vs. now.

 

[ru66]

Man does numbers love to 'hear' hmself write--- he does love to go on and on

 

[RUBOB72]

You're naive if you don't think key US personal - either of strategic importance, of interests of national security, or in this case simply being the president for 16 years - won't get or shouldn't get the vaccine first.

Governor Cuomo stayed today he believes NY will reach herd immunity by May/June 21.

Why should he be afforded the opportunity before a person who fits into the generic profiles created by governmental agencies Isn’t that “ privilege” and if there is one thing Obama and Biden came from and most in DC do it’s privilege .

 

[RUforester72]

Man does numbers love to 'hear' hmself write--- he does love to go on and on

Far better than putting up with the ongoing "p!ssing match" among some posters.

 

[RUBOB72]

Far better than putting up with the ongoing "p!ssing match" among some posters.

The pissing match is a two way street. The one’s who complain the most are the so called “ superior educated” who in their own minds visualize how great they are and then denigrate others who don’t agree with their disjointed scientific proofs.

 

[cohwx]

The "math help" comment was on your statement that, "if we have 2K deaths a day for 2 months that would be 60K," which is clearly wrong as 62 days at 2K/day would be 124K. And "between now and January" is ambiguous - he didn't specify which day in January - but it's obvious he meant the end of January, as 250K dead in 31 days would be an insane number of over 8000/day. And as I said, even 250K in 62 days is much higher than I think it will be (at 4000/day), but it's at least a credible worst case, given yesterday's record of 3157 deaths, as per the JHU tracker, and if people don't start being more careful.

4000/day seems like a shocking number but if you think about it, that's 80 per state per day. So far today Illinois alone has reported 228 deaths according to worldometers. I fully expect we'll be seeing 4000/day or higher at some point over the next month to month and a half. NY is well on its way to filling all the hospitals so their death rate will go up substantially over time.

There will also be increasing collateral damage as people with other conditions are turned away from hospitals or can't get treatment in time or are afraid to go to hospitals.

I spent some time last night reading through some posts on twitter from nurses and doctors around the country. Hospitals are in really bad shape in most places. The worst is definitely still to come and it's going to be worse than many are willing to imagine.

 

[RUBOB72]

4000/day seems like a shocking number but if you think about it, that's 80 per state per day. So far today Illinois alone has reported 228 deaths according to worldometers. I fully expect we'll be seeing 4000/day or higher at some point over the next month to month and a half. NY is well on its way to filling all the hospitals so their death rate will go up substantially over time.

There will also be increasing collateral damage as people with other conditions are turned away from hospitals or can't get treatment in time or are afraid to go to hospitals.

I spent some time last night reading through some posts on twitter from nurses and doctors around the country. Hospitals are in really bad shape in most places. The worst is definitely still to come and it's going to be worse than many are willing to imagine.

NYC hospitals appear (as of yesterday ) to be in good shape...

 

[RUBOB72]

Illinois ? How can that be with all those restrictions and shutdowns in place. What’s wrong here?

 

[Knight Shift]

4000/day seems like a shocking number but if you think about it, that's 80 per state per day. So far today Illinois alone has reported 228 deaths according to worldometers. I fully expect we'll be seeing 4000/day or higher at some point over the next month to month and a half. NY is well on its way to filling all the hospitals so their death rate will go up substantially over time.

There will also be increasing collateral damage as people with other conditions are turned away from hospitals or can't get treatment in time or are afraid to go to hospitals.

I spent some time last night reading through some posts on twitter from nurses and doctors around the country. Hospitals are in really bad shape in most places. The worst is definitely still to come and it's going to be worse than many are willing to imagine.

Isn't Illinois and it's largest city one of the most locked down states as far as restrictions? New Mexico too, yet they are running out of hospital beds. Oregon as well, and their Rt is in the stratosphere.

See Reopening Plans and Mask Mandates for All 50 States (Published 2021)

Much of the country has fully reopened after a year defined by patchwork coronavirus restrictions.

www.nytimes.com

New Mexico reports 40 new deaths, surpasses 100,000 total COVID-19 cases

www.kob.com

 

[FastMJ]

not at all trivial. Just nothing to fear.

Define fear. Nothing to fear as in locking yourself in your basement and eating freeze dried beans? Or fear as in not eating at Olive Garden because you don't want a side of Covid with your Chicken Parm?

 

[goru1869]

Man does numbers love to 'hear' hmself write--- he does love to go on and on

I hope he keeps cleaning the key board . Those pesky little germs will get him if he doesn't.

 

[mikemarc1]

Define fear. Nothing to fear as in locking yourself in your basement and eating freeze dried beans? Or fear as in not eating at Olive Garden because you don't want a side of Covid with your Chicken Parm?

both would be examples of fear, imo.

 

[FastMJ]

both would be examples of fear, imo.

No degree of fear (also known as caution in moderation) is warranted in the thick of a worsening pandemic? Everyone should go about their daily routines as they did pre-Covid then (no masks, no social distancing, no altering of entertainment outings)?

 

[mikemarc1]

No degree of fear (also known as caution in moderation) is warranted in the thick of a worsening pandemic? Everyone should go about their daily routines as they did pre-Covid then (no masks, no social distancing, no altering of entertainment outings)?

did I ever say there shouldn’t be masks, social distancing and altering of outings? No I did not.

take precautions..don’t stop living.

 

[RU848789]

4000/day seems like a shocking number but if you think about it, that's 80 per state per day. So far today Illinois alone has reported 228 deaths according to worldometers. I fully expect we'll be seeing 4000/day or higher at some point over the next month to month and a half. NY is well on its way to filling all the hospitals so their death rate will go up substantially over time.

There will also be increasing collateral damage as people with other conditions are turned away from hospitals or can't get treatment in time or are afraid to go to hospitals.

I spent some time last night reading through some posts on twitter from nurses and doctors around the country. Hospitals are in really bad shape in most places. The worst is definitely still to come and it's going to be worse than many are willing to imagine.

See my post above on NJ, where I doubt we'll reach 1/2 of the hospitalizations we had in April, meaning we shouldn't see hospitals being overwhelmed and should likely see death rates <1/4 what we saw in the spring, since deaths per hospitalization are a little less than half what they were in the spring, due to better procedures/treatments. Same should be true for NY. I could see our US deaths perhaps peaking in the 3500 range on individual days, but I don't think we'll exceed 3000 on a 7-day average and I think we'll peak in the 2500 range on a 7-day average. We'll see. Another factor is that we have ~30% already infected/immune, so transmission rates have to start slowing down at least a bit just based on that.

I know some think I've been all doom and gloom, but I've consistently predicted lower death rates than IHME/CDC and been right about that, plus I've been saying since April that we'd have vaccines by the end of the year (and antibody cocktails as an effective treatment - thought we'd have those by fall, but was a bit off on that, as it's late fall now and we just got our first EUA on that), which would be the beginning of the end for the pandemic and that looks like it'll be right also.

But we have a world of hurt to get through for the next 2 months and since I'd like to have everyone here to still argue with, thawhich is why I continue to make posts about the risks and interventions one can make to protect oneself and family, i.e., distancing, masks and not having indoor contact without masks with people whose COVID status you don't know.

 

[FastMJ]

did I ever say there shouldn’t be masks, social distancing and altering of outings? No I did not.

take precautions..don’t stop living.

I'm just trying to understand how to interpret "no fear" that's all. When someone says "don't live your life in fear of Covid" I can agree with that. But when you NEVER hear that same person using his bully pulpit to reinforce precautions then it creates a vacuum for people to interpret that however it suits them.

 

[mikemarc1]

I'm just trying to understand how to interpret "no fear" that's all. When someone says "don't live your life in fear of Covid" I can agree with that. But when you NEVER hear that same person using his bully pulpit to reinforce precautions then it creates a vacuum for people to interpret that however it suits them.

In your example from earlier you say not going to Olive Garden.

if a person goes out to eat every weekend pre covid but since March hasn’t gone out once. That’s fear, imo. That’s changing your life because of covid.

Now if same person DOES continue to go out..maybe less often than every weekend. Maybe the time out is an hour or two less. Maybe they go out in a smaller group. That’s not fear. That’s precautions.

 

[cohwx]

See my post above on NJ, where I doubt we'll reach 1/2 of the hospitalizations we had in April, meaning we shouldn't see hospitals being overwhelmed and should likely see death rates <1/4 what we saw in the spring, since deaths per hospitalization are a little less than half what they were in the spring, due to better procedures/treatments. Same should be true for NY. I could see our US deaths perhaps peaking in the 3500 range on individual days, but I don't think we'll exceed 3000 on a 7-day average and I think we'll peak in the 2500 range on a 7-day average. We'll see. Another factor is that we have ~30% already infected/immune, so transmission rates have to start slowing down at least a bit just based on that.

I know some think I've been all doom and gloom, but I've consistently predicted lower death rates than IHME/CDC and been right about that, plus I've been saying since April that we'd have vaccines by the end of the year (and antibody cocktails as an effective treatment - thought we'd have those by fall, but was a bit off on that, as it's late fall now and we just got our first EUA on that), which would be the beginning of the end for the pandemic and that looks like it'll be right also. But we have a world of hurt to get through for the next 2 months.

There's a lot of future deaths already "baked into the system" in my opinion, and that will show up over the next several weeks. Then we have the wave of transmissions that undoubtedly occurred during Thanksgiving which are yet to show up as cases or hospitalizations. Black Friday shopping, other holiday gatherings, all that is yet to come.

The vaccine won't come in time to have any impact on what happens over the next month or two.

As for NY...I don't know what will happen in the city but out here in Monroe county, the number hospitalized now is more than twice what it was in the spring peak, and increasing by 5-10% per day. ICU usage has also surpassed the spring peak. There were over 600 new cases identified yesterday with positivity rates recently averaging between 5-10%. Hospitals are starting to cancel elective procedures, and they're starting to talk about field hospitals.

As for antibody cocktails - good luck getting that in time when all the HCWs are already dealing with extremely sick patients.