OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

[cohwx]

I do not believe that 85 percent for a second, for one. Still tons of people not wearing masks around me, which incidentally is an area that's been soaring to record levels and healthcare system crunch for months. And in a land where people still breed like it's an 18th century agricultural society, I'm quite sure those family/church/neighborhood gatherings are a factor. My family had to quarantine because of it.

It might have been >85% around here in the spring/early summer but over time I saw more and more people out in stores without masks. Who knows what the percentage was, I'm sure it varied with area.

Local health department here says contact tracing is leading back to gatherings in homes for many of the cases. Some in restaurants/bars, some from people going to work with symptoms.

I'm sure it's a combination of many things. Masks help but are not 100% effective. More people are indoors this time of year, it's a very contagious virus, people can spread without having symptoms - so I would expect cases would have risen regardless. But I think a large part of it is people got tired of following restrictions, became careless or even rebellious and had those close gatherings with others. Around here I suspect there was some complacency because infection rates in NY were so low for so long. And here we are.

 

[WhiteBus]

It might have been >85% around here in the spring/early summer but over time I saw more and more people out in stores without masks. Who knows what the percentage was, I'm sure it varied with area.

Local health department here says contact tracing is leading back to gatherings in homes for many of the cases. Some in restaurants/bars, some from people going to work with symptoms.

I'm sure it's a combination of many things. Masks help but are not 100% effective. More people are indoors this time of year, it's a very contagious virus, people can spread without having symptoms - so I would expect cases would have risen regardless. But I think a large part of it is people got tired of following restrictions, became careless or even rebellious and had those close gatherings with others. Around here I suspect there was some complacency because infection rates in NY were so low for so long. And here we are.

I call complete BS on bars in NJ, PA and NYC as adding a significant number of positive cases under the restrictions and rules put in place. Simply the limitations indoors kept people away.

 

[Frida's Boss]

Over 1,000 health professionals sign a letter saying, Don't shut down protests using coronavirus concerns as an excuse | CNN

A group of health and medical colleagues has penned an open letter to express their concern that protests around the United States could be shut down under the guise of coronavirus health concerns. The letter -- which went on to draw more than 1,200 signatures -- focuses on techniques to...

www.cnn.com

Health care professionals are not synonymous with health care officials.

 

[WhiteBus]

CBS is reporting that 40 million vaccines will be available by Pfizer and Moderna COMBINED by the end of the year. The number keeps shrinking dramatically.

 

[Postman_1]

Some interesting charts below.

 

[RUBOB72]

I‘m not sure I agree with the statement that health officials encouraged protesting, but that’s not relevant. Those protests certainly helped spread the virus more than would otherwise have happened, and thus they shouldn’t have occurred. Period. I don’t care for the mask wearing justification defense, either. Large crowds increase risk. Of course, I do recall seeing plenty of campaign rallies chocked full of people jammed together with no masks. To date, I haven’t heard you criticize said campaign for allowing that to happen.

There is no disputing either... protests bad... rally’s bad...politicians going against their own bans DISGRACEFUL

 

[goru1869]

What positive involvement did he have. Blame for this cluster f can be equally spread around to all in government.

Warp speed

 

[goru1869]

Maybe they could hire guys that like to dress up in militia costumes to help 😂

Sorry ...couldn't help it.

Good response. But wrong also. I will let you figure it out.

 

[WhiteBus]

Warp speed

Ha. Yeah no. That plan was one of the Obama pandemic guidelines he followed. But thanks for playing. You will get a parting gift on your way out.

 

[Frida's Boss]

No the poster was saying “ they should get what they deserve” don’t change the dialogue. Well , I do wear a mask... By doing so now we are again being told it only “ may” help but is not a guarantee to stop you from getting Covid or stopping you from spreading it. ... with that logic ( by the new updated science) why wear those masks? It doesn’t justify anything wishing it either way... sounds a little archaic ... Are you under 55 ? If you are over 55 roll yourself up in Saran Wrap ... and hide in the closet... Don’t see anyone from family but also realize the one’s pushing these safety edicts for the most part laugh and do just the opposite of what they tell us... Dems/Repubs/ they all have sinned against the people over the past 10- 11 months with plenty of falsehoods.

That is not what “the poster” said. If people don’t follow public health guidelines and contract and spread the virus as a result of their willful disregard of established guidelines, then they deserve what happens to them. Id also say at no point was it argues by anyone credible that a mask provides universal protection, so there really has been no change in the justification for using them.

 

[fsg2]

Good response. But wrong also. I will let you figure it out.

I believe the militia part was wrong, but it made for better phrasing. I'm calling artistic license ; )

 

[WhiteBus]

Oblunder ? Is that you ? Thank you for playing. Trump put it in motion. No gift for you Barry.

Dude due some research. The only thing Trump did was give it a name. I'm a Republican. Didn't vote for Obama. I am also a smart man and can figure out a clown quickly. I'm not one of Trumps cult. They are a stupid bunch. Believes everything he says as fact. Time to use your brain and stop being a lemming.

 

[RUBOB72]

That is not what “the poster” said. If people don’t follow public health guidelines and contract and spread the virus as a result of their willful disregard of established guidelines, then they deserve what happens to them. Id also say at no point was it argues by anyone credible that a mask provides universal protection, so there really has been no change in the justification for using them.

They have vacillated over and over and over...masks don’t guarantee you remain Covid free... keep believing that line... California mandated masks long ago... they are not doing to well...

 

[bac2therac]

No ...because you don't care about that.

You are a guy who has repeatedly btched about rules that you ignore and/or don't affect you. The guy worried more about people wearing masks outdoors where you think they're unnecessary.

It hasn't done you any service. You had some legitimate gripes, then sort of diluted them to oblivion by just complaining about everything and instigating people to "stand up against the tyranny."

Waaaah..sounds like a personal rant

 

[goru1869]

I believe the militia part was wrong, but it made for better phrasing. I'm calling artistic license ; )

You are 100% percent correct .

 

[goru1869]

Dude due some research. The only thing Trump did was give it a name. I'm a Republican. Didn't vote for Obama. I am also a smart man and can figure out a clown quickly. I'm not one of Trumps cult. They are a stupid bunch. Believes everything he says as fact. Time to use your brain and stop being a lemming.

Is that what the MSM told you ? Keep drinking the kool aid MR. Smart Pants.

 

[bac2therac]

That is not what “the poster” said. If people don’t follow public health guidelines and contract and spread the virus as a result of their willful disregard of established guidelines, then they deserve what happens to them. Id also say at no point was it argues by anyone credible that a mask provides universal protection, so there really has been no change in the justification for using them.

They said if everyone wore masks it would go away in 6 weeks

They said masks were better than vaccines

 

[bac2therac]

Some interesting charts below.

Thank u. I am postive that Washington and Oregon were pretty serious about masks but look at their RTs the past month...of course we know California

 

[WhiteBus]

Is that what the MSM told you ? Keep drinking the kool aid MR. Smart Pants.

Dude you are the cool aid drinker. I don't even know who MSM is. Nobody tells me how to think. Sorry for your brainwashing.

 

[Frida's Boss]

They said if everyone wore masks it would go away in 6 weeks

They said masks were better than vaccines

Im not sure if you deliberatively twist comments to suit your desired narrative or if your “news” sources package things in a misleading way that you want to believe. Either way, let’s address the masks vs virus comment you butchered above. Redfield was discussing masks in the context of generating an immune reaction and efficacy. If a vaccine carried the minimally accepted efficacy of 50%, some people would be better protected by a mask than a vaccine. You see, his statement had qualification an nuance unlike your inaccurate description above.

 

[bac2therac]

It might have been >85% around here in the spring/early summer but over time I saw more and more people out in stores without masks. Who knows what the percentage was, I'm sure it varied with area.

Local health department here says contact tracing is leading back to gatherings in homes for many of the cases. Some in restaurants/bars, some from people going to work with symptoms.

I'm sure it's a combination of many things. Masks help but are not 100% effective. More people are indoors this time of year, it's a very contagious virus, people can spread without having symptoms - so I would expect cases would have risen regardless. But I think a large part of it is people got tired of following restrictions, became careless or even rebellious and had those close gatherings with others. Around here I suspect there was some complacency because infection rates in NY were so low for so long. And here we are.

In NJ. .I have NEVER seen anyone in a retail business NOT wearing a mask since April..obviously not including eating in restaurant

 

[WhiteBus]

They said if everyone wore masks it would go away in 6 weeks

They said masks were better than vaccines

And masks wearers ignore social distancing as they been told masks are so important. Wrong!

 

[RUBOB72]

They said if everyone wore masks it would go away in 6 weeks

They said masks were better than vaccines

Seems amnesia is more an issue with several medical and science board members. How wonderful

 

[Frida's Boss]

Seems amnesia is more an issue with several medical and science board members. How wonderful

Seems lack of understanding of what was actually said and why it was said is an issue with many board members.

 

[wisr01]

It might have been >85% around here in the spring/early summer but over time I saw more and more people out in stores without masks. Who knows what the percentage was, I'm sure it varied with area.

Local health department here says contact tracing is leading back to gatherings in homes for many of the cases. Some in restaurants/bars, some from people going to work with symptoms.

I'm sure it's a combination of many things. Masks help but are not 100% effective. More people are indoors this time of year, it's a very contagious virus, people can spread without having symptoms - so I would expect cases would have risen regardless. But I think a large part of it is people got tired of following restrictions, became careless or even rebellious and had those close gatherings with others. Around here I suspect there was some complacency because infection rates in NY were so low for so long. And here we are.

A friend of mine is on a ventilator fighting for his life because of what I highlighted in your post. A few weeks ago he and his wife got together with friends. They are late-60's/early-70's in age. A few days later he found out that one couple tested positive and was sick. A few more days he (and wife) became sick. He was hit the hardest and is now fighting for life and the prognosis is not good.

Another friend of mine had 4 generations of his family end up with virus. His wife went to see her father in Florida as he (90 years old) was doing bad and hospitalized with heart problems. He ended up released from hospital and she stayed a week to help step-mom care for him. She flies home to NJ. A few days later they get a call that both her dad and step-mom have covid. She runs out and gets tested (apparently too soon only a few days after exposure) that day and came back negative a few days later. My friend and her watched grandson for a day a few days later. Then a few more days go by and now my friend and his wife are sick. Both re-tested and now positive. They test grand son and his parents and they are positive too. Within ten days 4 generations infected and my friends FIL (90 year old) dies.

Here is my problem with these examples...all of them saw strangers as a concern and to be avoided and follow the precautions around. But they saw family and friends as safe and not to be worried about. I believe this is the mistake many make....

 

[mikemarc1]

CBS is reporting that 40 million vaccines will be available by Pfizer and Moderna COMBINED by the end of the year. The number keeps shrinking dramatically.

do u have a link? Seems very incorrect.

pfizer said yesterday 50 million. That woukd mean moderna isn’t expected to ship any?

Think that report is very wrong

 

[King of S]

except every study from before covid said wearing a mask does little, do a little research.

the study on asymptomatic spread is quite frail right now, so alot of assumptions that more sciency science than science

And this is why once 50% of the country is vaccinated the mask will be thrown in the garbage!

 

[bac2therac]

Seems lack of understanding of what was actually said and why it was said is an issue with many board members.

He had to walk it back

He also was bitchslapped by Trump on his wrong statements on vaccines

Its why half the country doesnt trust cdc or fauci..their lies and flip flops

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

 

[fsg2]

Waaaah..sounds like a personal rant

Like talking to a seven year old who's still in nursery school.

Keep telling us how fair, balanced and anti-hypocritical you are 😂 Do me a favor, though ...don't project your personal issues onto those of us who actually are consistent.

 

[Frida's Boss]

He had to walk it back

He also was bitchslapped by Trump on his wrong statements on vaccines

Its why half the country doesnt trust cdc or fauci..their lies and flip flops

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

Trumps statements are irrelevant.

Redfield’s comments weren’t as you represented, and you posted a link that proves my point. He also didn’t say the virus would go away in 6 weeks if everyone wore a mask. He said, per what you linked, that it would be brought under control. Big difference.

 

[bac2therac]

You lied i never said Redfeld made the comment about 6 weeks tho he made similar ones

 

[bac2therac]

Mask compliance is high

His comments are bogus. Virus is virusing

Your lack of comments about mask mandates vs cases on graphs says it all

 

[bac2therac]

Kudos to Florida...this should be happening everywhere

 

[RU848789]

Let's try to get this thread back on track one more time; hasn't quite worked the past few times it was tried and I suspect it won't work here, but here goes. Don't think anyone posted on this yet, but last week the WHO's Solidarity clinical trial results were published in the NEJoM. These were a set of trials using repurposed existing drugs in large, randomized and controlled (but not blinded) studies and the bottom line is they showed no efficacy in reducing mortality for hospitalized patients being treated with HCQ, lopinavir (antiviral), interferon or remdesivir (antiviral), although remdesivir did at least show reductions in symptoms and time to hospital release, which is important for patients who survive. Links to an editorial on the trials and the full study below.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2034294?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2023184

 

[T2Kplus10]

Governor Cuomo stayed today he believes NY will reach herd immunity by May/June 21.

That timeline is definitely possible, especially since so many in NY have already been infected.

 

[RU848789]

That timeline is definitely possible, especially since so many in NY have already been infected.

I think even late April is possible, with probably 40% infected by February (~30% now) and 40% vaccinated by the end of April, assuming at least half of those aren't previously infected people, leading to ~60% immune, which is very close to herd immunity (many postulate that is 60-70%). Some of that probably depends on how quickly the J&J/AZ vaccines get approved and deployed (thinking late January for each).

 

[WhiteBus]

Here is why I think it will go longer. The amount of vaccine is dramatically lower than first projected. So I'm not buying that things will improve back to their original projections even though they claim they will. The production amount estimated by Pzizer and Moderna combined for US distribution by the end of 2020 is 40 million doses. Divide that in half as they require 2 doses and that leaves 20 million people by the end of this year in the US. That's a big quick jump to consider herd immunity a few months later.

 

[tom1944]

Is there an estimated timeline for when the vaccine will be available for middle aged under 65 of decent health individuals

 

[RUBOB72]

That is not what “the poster” said. If people don’t follow public health guidelines and contract and spread the virus as a result of their willful disregard of established guidelines, then they deserve what happens to them. Id also say at no point was it argues by anyone credible that a mask provides universal protection, so there really has been no change in the justification for using them.

Seems lack of understanding of what was actually said and why it was said is an issue with many board members.

well at least you now admit it...🪓🪓🪓🪓

 

[RU848789]

Here is why I think it will go longer. The amount of vaccine is dramatically lower than first projected. So I'm not buying that things will improve back to their original projections even though they claim they will. The production amount estimated by Pzizer and Moderna combined for US distribution by the end of 2020 is 40 million doses. Divide that in half as they require 2 doses and that leaves 20 million people by the end of this year in the US. That's a big quick jump to consider herd immunity a few months later.

Yes, Pfizer cut estimates of doses by the end of the year in half from a September projection to their early November projection, but the September projection was very early and more of a guesstimate, while the November projection is solid and represents what they already mostly have ready. The combined estimate by the end of the year for both Pfizer and Moderna is 40MM doses for 20MM people, which just about covers the ~21MM health care workers and ~2MM LTC population, i.e., those most at risk.

And Moderna is saying they will have 100-125MM doses during 1Q21, with 85-100MM of those for the US (for 40-50MM people), while Pfizer expects ~100MM doses in 1Q21 (50MM people) and 1.3 billion doses in all of 2021 worldwide. So that's enough for 100MM in the US by the end of 1Q21 (~30% of the population). Throw in the Astra-Zeneca and J&J vaccines, which will very likely also work and be approved by the end of January and there's easily another 100MM doses by the end of 1Q21 for the US (at least 50MM people; J&J is looking at 1 dose). Plus, several more vaccines are likely to be available by March/April.

If things work out well, which I think they will, we're talking about having enough people vaccinated by the end of April to get very close to herd immunity, when factoring in ~30% already likely immune. Having spent 30+ years in Pharma late stage R&D/manufacturing, yes, there is always some risk to any supply chain (and I'm sure there will be some growing pains with distribution), but certainly not to all or most of them at the same time. I'm on the optimistic side with my projections, but even the pessimistic side would likely be that we'll be able to vaccinate >60% of the US by sometime in June.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...t-u-s-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-plan.html

https://time.com/5917847/pfizer-cut-covid-19-vaccine-targets/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...doses-globally-in-first-quarter-idUSKBN28D3FA