OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more

[RU848789]

I would add to the Bamlan post above hat anyone who knows a high risk person to come down with covid to personally advocate for them to get the treatment if you feel it’s in their best interest. My father was unable to nor was my mother. Wish I had gotten his GP on the phone.

Our son's girlfriend's mother, who came down with COVID while in the hospital (tested + on XMAS Eve right before going home), was given the Lilly mAb (bamlanivumab) yesterday, when she started having some trouble breathing and had lost sense of taste/smell, probably because she has significant underlying conditions (autoimmune disease). She's feeling a bit better today and has taste/smell returning. Clearly they're available and being used, but it's hard to know how doctor's are deploying them.

 

[RU848789]

I wonder if the board software has any features that allow for limits on how many posts a person can make in a thread in a given day?

If so...limit each person to only a couple of posts and a lot of this crap would die down. You'd have to make your posts count instead of just cluttering the thread with every ridiculous "thought" that comes to mind.

That's actually a great idea. On the weather boards, they limit the "weather trolls" to 5 posts per day, overall (but since there's usually only one main storm thread it might as well be for that thread), so they can still participate a bit, but not derail threads (and they then tend to post good quality content with their 5 posts). Of course, bac has been 5-posted (no surprise there). No idea if this site offers that technology overall or in specific threads, but it would really clean this thread up. I posted what I thought was a pretty informative post around 5 am Monday morning and 3-4 pages later it had no comments, since all we've seen is the usual bickering.

 

[RU848789]

So the reason cases are still sky high despite mask compliance everywhere you go in the US. is that people aren't wearing them at home too? Got it.

Not buying it.

Please don't compare the average obese United States person to a pencil thin person in Asia.

If masks worked then there wouldn't be chart after chart showing cases rising after these mask mandates in the US.

A cloth mask is not working, sorry. Neither is a medical mask meant for a sterile environment, not a gas station.

Well, that's a thoroughly convincing, evidence-based scientific argument you've presented. Try again. I presented pretty solid scientific evidence for masks working to some extent and for 100% mask usage being a key reason why many countries have case/death rates that are about 1/50th of the rates here and in much of Europe/South America. They work, but far from perfectly and compliance needs to be much greater than it is to achieve R0's well below 1, to slow/stop outbreaks.

And we know from so many stories here that mask compliance in the US is nowhere near good enough to prevent cases from rising - yes, mask-wearing in public indoor spaces is pretty good (nowhere near perfect though), but plenty of high risk businesses and private activities continue going on, often with little or no masking. I see pictures every day of family gatherings without masks and we know millions are still traveling all over the country. Also, as I posted last night, the recent outbreaks in states like ND, SD, IA, WI and many more are far worse than what we're seeing now in NJ/NY, with much of that, IMO, due to poor masking requirements/compliance, but even here, mask compliance is far from perfect - hence the recent spikes.

 

[bac2therac]

What’s crazy about the lunatic fringe MAGA crowd who have hijacked this thread is their delusional writings that undermine trust in American institutions. It is a profoundly anti American agenda and straight out of the SVR playbook.

lol how ironic

 

[bac2therac]

Well, that's a thoroughly convincing, evidence-based scientific argument you've presented. Try again. I presented pretty solid scientific evidence for masks working to some extent and for 100% mask usage being a key reason why many countries have case/death rates that are about 1/50th of the rates here and in much of Europe/South America. They work, but far from perfectly and compliance needs to be much greater than it is to achieve R0's well below 1, to slow/stop outbreaks.

And we know from so many stories here that mask compliance in the US is nowhere near good enough to prevent cases from rising - yes, mask-wearing in public indoor spaces is pretty good (nowhere near perfect though), but plenty of high risk businesses and private activities continue going on, often with little or no masking. I see pictures every day of family gatherings without masks and we know millions are still traveling all over the country. Also, as I posted last night, the recent outbreaks in states like ND, SD, IA, WI and many more are far worse than what we're seeing now in NJ/NY, with much of that, IMO, due to poor masking requirements/compliance, but even here, mask compliance is far from perfect - hence the recent spikes.

you continually bring up North and South Dakota while their RT rates have been below 1 basically for the past month, meanwhile Hawaii which had one of the strictest lockdowns is out of control...again. You keep bring up these states and Florida but they decided not to sacrifice their economies and they still have not reached the abhorrent levels per million of NJ and NY

 

[bac2therac]

I wonder if the board software has any features that allow for limits on how many posts a person can make in a thread in a given day?

If so...limit each person to only a couple of posts and a lot of this crap would die down. You'd have to make your posts count instead of just cluttering the thread with every ridiculous "thought" that comes to mind.

lol

 

[RU848789]

Yes thats why So Korea is having their time in the barrell now

Yeah, SK has "blown up" to ~1000 cases/day, which is equivalent to about 6500 cases/day in the US, which is having 200,000 cases/day - that's still a factor of 30X less (it was 300X less before their spike). And their deaths are all the way up to 15/1MM vs. our 1050/1MM, a mere ~70X more per capita. Nice try.

 

[bac2therac]

It’s a tik tok video with NO CONTEXT. so yes it does matter where it came from.

Were these workers on duty? Where was this hospital? Is this an “overwhelmed” hospital?

These things matter.

I can find hundreds of these videos yes on duty..as if non workers and children are allowed to roam the coronavirus filled halls of hospitals while people are not allowed to visit their loved ones...stuff like this went on when they said I couldnt visit my mother in the hospital...must be nice for these workers

 

[bac2therac]

Yeah, SK has "blown up" to ~1000 cases/day, which is equivalent to about 6500 cases/day in the US, which is having 200,000 cases/day - that's still a factor of 30X less (it was 300X less before their spike). And their deaths are all the way up to 15/1MM vs. our 1050/1MM, a mere ~70X more per capita. Nice try.

why are they writing stories about them hitting the panic button with overrun hospitals

 

[bac2therac]

The Latest: S Korea reports biggest daily death toll so far

South Korea says 40 more coronavirus patients have died in the past 24 hours, the highest daily number since the pandemic began.

apnews.com

COVID-19 cases skyrocket in South Korea and Japan

As in countries around the world, the inadequate responses of Tokyo and Seoul to the pandemic have been driven by concerns for big business.

www.wsws.org

South Korea's Moon warns of toughest COVID-19 curbs after two days of record cases

South Korea's President Moon Jae-in warned on Sunday that COVID-19 restrictions may be raised to the highest level after a second day of record increases in cases as the country battles a harsh third wave of infection.

www.reuters.com

 

[RU848789]

IHME Death Projections (and mine):

Well, we hit a pretty depressing milestone this weekend with 0.1% of the US population now having died from COVID this year (~330K deaths and that's a lowball estimate given excess deaths are in the 400K range). Thought I'd revisit my posts from a few weeks ago on NJ/NY/National data and do a little prognosticating on where we're headed, including an update of the latest IHME projections.

• The latest IHME projections predict 459K by the end of January (that's ~4000/day for Jan), 527K by the end of February (that's ~2500/day for Feb), and 566K deaths by the end of March (that's ~1300/day for Mar). In mid-Nov, they were predicting 440K by the end of Feb and 383K by the end of Jan, so they've gone up quite a bit, mostly responding to the death rate spikes we've been seeing since Thanksgiving and anticipating another spike post-Christmas.
• I was projecting even lower back in mid-Nov - 400K by the end of Feb - that will almost certainly be exceeded, but I still think they're predicting too high with their latest projections, as I don't think they're accounting enough for the vaccine rollout to LTC facilties, which will hopefully be done in 2 weeks. Close to 40% of COVID deaths have been in LTC facilities and these should be way down by late January. Note that my predictions were much more accurate in the summer and fall than IHME.
• I'm guesstimating more like 425K by the end of Jan (~2800/day for Jan), 475K by the end of Feb (~1800/day for Feb) and 500K by the end of March, (~800/day for Mar), when I think we'll have vaccinated 100MM Americans (38% of eligible adults, plus we'll likely have >30% having been infected/immune, although there's some overlap in those sets of people), which is why my estimate really drops for March.
  • If we hit targets of 50% of eligible adults vaccinated by the end of April, deaths should continue to plummet, hopefully to below 100-200 per day, with cases/hospitalizations also obviously way down and I think that's when we're going to start seeing a lot of things reopening (probably first to people who have proof of vaccination).
• Their estimates and mine are both horrible outcomes, with mine being at least preferable to theirs.
• IHME predicts 25K deaths in NJ by the end of March (18.6k deaths now) and predicts 51.5K deaths in NY by the end of March (29.5K deaths now). I think the NJ number is realistic, but the NY is too high (it's much more than NJ's on a % basis from now through March and I don't see why that would be).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

Cases/Hospitalizations/Deaths in NJ (and NY)

Let's talk a bit about NJ/NY (and maybe a few other states). The important thing to notice for NJ/NY vs. the US, and other states is the outbreaks here are about half as severe as they were in the Spring (based on hospitalizations) and are far less severe than the oubreaks in most of the rest of the US now. And one critical key to looking at NJ/NY now vs. the Spring is recognizing that testing rates were so low that our case rates were hugely underestimated, which is why I almost exclusively talk about hospitalization rates as the best indicator of the extent of the outbreak, as they're "real" (assuming people aren't going to hospitals more or less than they were in the spring, which is unlikely) and not dependent on testing rates and directly linked to death rates, whereas cases are not.

• Looking at hospitalizations in NJ, they peaked at about 900/1MM (per capita is much better for comparing states) in the spring, which is a little more than 2X the 400/1MM total we're peaking at now, implying that cases now are a little less than half what they were in the Spring, despite the case numbers now looking higher.
• I've been saying for months that we likely had 2-4X the number of cases (positive cases by the viral PCR assay) back in Spring than we actually reported. Let's say that's about 1200 cases/day per 1MM (vs. the 400 cases/day per 1MM reported back then at the peak - that's a little more than 2X the current case rate, which has peaked around 550 cases/day per 1MM; see the graphic below and this aligns well with the relative hospitalization rate data.
• Also, as I've been saying since summer, deaths per hospitalization have dropped by at least 50%, due to improved medical procedures and treatments, so if our hospitalizations have peaked around half of what we saw in the spring, we should expect deaths to peak at about 1/4 of what we saw in the spring - and right now they're at about 1/5 what we saw in the spring and appear to be starting to peak. However, we may also get a bit of a post-Christmas bump in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, as noted above.
  • Assuming these relationships hold, anyone saying the outbreaks in this area are as bad as they were in the spring, simply isn't looking at the data closely enough.
• All of the preceding applies to NY also (and the other NE US states hit much harder in the Spring), relatively speaking, as one can see the shapes of the curves over time are very similar, as well as the numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths per capita (per 1MM).

State Comparisons/Masking Comments

Also, IMO, there's no better "proof" that masks work (to some extent, not perfectly) than the NJ/NY data. We weren't masking much at all in the Spring, at least until early April when masking guidances came out, and had zero masking in Feb and most of March when cases were rising exponentially. Since then masking is at least mostly being practiced, at least in public indoor spaces, but not private ones (especially during the holidays).

• NJ/NY having half the case and hospitalization rates vs. Spring is a huge improvement and I'm hard pressed to think of other reasons for this than masking (the number of infected people being greater now is likely a small factor).
• Compare that to states like the Dakotas (included SD below; others look similar) that have little masking requirements in place and poor masking compliance, which recently had peak case rates about 2-3X the case rates we have now (per capita) and are even higher than our estimated spring case rates, plus SD and nearby states participated in the biggest superspreader event ever - Sturgis.
• 80-90% of the deaths in ND/SD and several other nearby states have come since Sturgis in August, while only about 15% of deaths in NJ/NY have come since August. Back in August, SD/ND had <200 deaths/1MM (vs. over 1500 deaths/1MM in NJ/NY) and now they're closing in on NJ/NY.
• Also, if NJ/NY had any idea what was hitting them in the Spring and if we had been masking back in the spring to the extent we are now, we would likely have about half the deaths per capita we have now and would be in the middle of the pack in the US.
• One other observation: while California is certainly peaking higher than Florida or Texas, keep in mind that CA's per capita death rate is less than 2/3 that of FL/TX (CA's is 614/1MM, TX's is 938/1MM and FL's is 988/1MM; Arizona is at 1158/1MM - added them as I was comparing all 4 states in the summer) and while CA will likely catch up a bit, it's unlikely to catch them and if it doesn't masking will likely be a factor, as none of these states was hit hard in the Spring and they're all generally warm, but had very different masking guidances.

https://covidtracking.com/data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

you continually bring up North and South Dakota while their RT rates have been below 1 basically for the past month, meanwhile Hawaii which had one of the strictest lockdowns is out of control...again. You keep bring up these states and Florida but they decided not to sacrifice their economies and they still have not reached the abhorrent levels per million of NJ and NY

Reading comprehension has never been your strong suit. I've been referring to their recent peaks vs. our current peak, with their recent peak being far greater. And HI is up around 100 cases/1MM, which is 1/15th what the case peaks recently were in SD/ND. And none of these states were hit hard early, like we were, which is the only reason our death rates are still the highest - we were the unfortunate recipients of being on the front lines of a country woefully unprepared to execute its pandemic playbook - our only "fault" was having the greatest influx of infected travelers and having the highest living and commuting densities in the country, which conspired to make our spring outbreak so much worse than anywhere else - and we had no testing in place to even know it was going on until it was too late. Have covered all of this before, but you ignore it every time.

 

[RU848789]

why are they writing stories about them hitting the panic button with overrun hospitals

Why are you asking me that? They're very concerned, which they should be, but I don't sense panic. They've come this far and with vaccines so close, I can't imagine them not crossing the finish line in very good shape, relative to the rest of the world.

 

[GORU2014]

I can find hundreds of these videos yes on duty..as if non workers and children are allowed to roam the coronavirus filled halls of hospitals while people are not allowed to visit their loved ones...stuff like this went on when they said I couldnt visit my mother in the hospital...must be nice for these workers

Yup, it’s nice for the healthcare workers. Been great for the past 9 months. What a stupid comment.

 

[RU848789]

For those folks who think that people like Fauci and the CDC and weather forecasters and other science-based communicators are "lying" and "can't be trusted," I'd ask them to at least try to understand a little bit of the science involved. Trying to predict what's going to happen with highly complex systems, which have huge uncertainties associated with them, especially for an ever-evolving pandemic, where the science is being discovered as we go - and we're unable to run controlled experiments to actually determine infection transmissibility, since it's unethical to run the experiments we'd need to run - is extraordinarily difficult.

And this means some of the early scientific thought and predictions were bound to be at least somewhat in error, whether it was on mask effectiveness, transmissibility/herd immunity, death projections, asymptomatic transmission, etc. Perfect case in point is herd immunity, where one needs to know quite accurately the R0 reproductive number (a measure of infectiousness) to know what the herd immunity point is, roughly speaking. As per the post below from April, back then there were arguments over whether R0 (assuming no interventions to slow spread) was 2.2 (which would mean 55% infected achieves herd immunity) or 5.7 (82% infected achieves herd immunity) or somewhere in-between.

And there were even now-discredited estimates that it was effectively lower than 2.2 (by Scott Atlas and friends), meaning we had nearly achieved herd immunity this past summer, which obviously is not the case given the explosion in cases, worldwide this fall/winter - with estimates that up to 30% have already been infected, but another 25-50% would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity. Initially, I thought herd immunity might be as low as 30-50% based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship infections, but clearly once we saw infection rates near 80+% in prisons, meatpacking plants and other tight communities, it seemed pretty obvious those low numbers were a pipe dream - and yet those low R0 estimates informed what the Trump Administration strived for under Atlas's guidance

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...es-interventions-and-more.191275/post-4495665

The bottom line is we keep learning more about the virus and fine-tuning the science, the models and the projections, but they still have a pretty high degree of uncertainty around them and likely always will due to that pesky limitation ethics imposes on us with regard to infecting people to get the data we need. Guidance has evolved, sometimes more slowly than we all would like, but it has evolved, since we know more now than we did months ago. And that means people like Fauci will have evolving positions as more is learned. They're not "lying" about the situation, but their positions are bound to evolve.

In the weather business, should forecasters not adjust their snowfall forecasts 24 hours before an event when new data indicates a change in the forecast? Do people think they're lying or just adjusting their forecasts as they learn more - hint: they're not lying. They may end up partly or even significantly wrong, but weather forecasting is still an imperfect science (and always will be, given the chaotic nature of numerical modeling of weather systems), although forecasts at 5 days out now are as accurate as they were 2-3 days out 25 years ago. And we've been working to improve weather forecasting for decades, while pandemic forecasting for a brand new virus never seen on the planet before is far harder. I'd say give the scientists and communicators of the science a little bit of a break, but I doubt most will listen.

 

[RU848789]

lol how ironic

No, ironic is that you're the guy who's been five-posted mulltiple times on the weather boards for trolling and yet somehow you don't think you're trolling this thread. It's what you and the CE board folks do and you've done it successfully again. Congrats, I guess.

 

[ejgonz]

View embedded media

Did you actually read the source article from the NYT? I’m guessing not since that headline is grossly inaccurate.

 

[RU848789]

An interesting report from the CDC on how many Americans have been infected symptomatically (77MM), asymptomatically (14MM), and in total (91MM or about 28% of the US population), through the end of November, based on CDC's models (similar to those used to guesstimate flu infections). Given that viral cases have gone from 14MM to 19.5MM since the end of Nov, that's an increase of 39%, which one would think would mean we're now up to 39% infected in the US, which is about halfway to what many think will be herd immunity (around 80%). The two charts below show the data for total numbers and per 100,000 in each age group.

The report also shows we've likely had about 3.36MM hospitalizations through the end of Nov vs. 275K deaths; I recall seeing this ratio being closer to 5:1, but this is about 12:1. The key point either way is that COVID sends a lot more people to the hospital for a scary few days to weeks than it does to the morgue, so the impacts aren't just deaths. And while those over 65 are about 20X more likely per capita to be hospitalized than those under 18, we're still talking about 0.14% of those under 18 being hospitalized (1.4 out of a 1000 infected) vs. 2.8% of those infected who are over 65 being hospitalized. Deaths in those under 18 are much lower, of course.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

 

[Postman_1]

Please get off Twitter, it’s making you dumber (like the Karen in that video).

I asked you before to show me info that went against the chart I posted on Twitter. Yet you never did. You are a troll and that’s it. You are the dummy who responded to me in a previous thread that assumed I was a certain race because of the stuff I was posting. Yet you don’t even know me.

 

[RU-05]

The Latest: S Korea reports biggest daily death toll so far

South Korea says 40 more coronavirus patients have died in the past 24 hours, the highest daily number since the pandemic began.

apnews.com

COVID-19 cases skyrocket in South Korea and Japan

As in countries around the world, the inadequate responses of Tokyo and Seoul to the pandemic have been driven by concerns for big business.

www.wsws.org

South Korea's Moon warns of toughest COVID-19 curbs after two days of record cases

South Korea's President Moon Jae-in warned on Sunday that COVID-19 restrictions may be raised to the highest level after a second day of record increases in cases as the country battles a harsh third wave of infection.

www.reuters.com

We've kind of been down this road before as well. I remember when Australia, which had been doing well, saw a jump in cases, "virus is going to virus" folks pointed to them as an example, but Australia implemented measures and quickly got the virus back under control.

I'd be very surprised if the same doesn't happen here with S. Korea.

 

[RobertG]

Here is a paper on the wearing of masks in South Korea during the early days of the pandemic.

Masks were culturally acceptable, and encoraged by the gov. Masks were worn previously because of mers and sand particles from the mongolian desert.

Face masks and containment of COVID-19: experience from South Korea

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

I do believe that the original messaging around masks in the US was very bad. Had cloth masks been encoraged some early spread may have been contained and the authorities would not looked like they were flip flopping.

 

[RocktheRac]

Yup, it’s nice for the healthcare workers. Been great for the past 9 months. What a stupid comment.

How are non employees and kids getting into these hospitals doing this while family members are not allowed to visit family members? I have a friend who's Mom was admitted to St. Peters the other day for non covid reasons and they are not allowed in to visit.

 

[RU-05]

How are non employees and kids getting into these hospitals doing this while family members are not allowed to visit family members? I have a friend who's Mom was admitted to St. Peters the other day for non covid reasons and they are not allowed in to visit.

Are patient families not allowed in that specific hospital?

 

[RUBOB72]

What’s crazy about the lunatic fringe MAGA crowd who have hijacked this thread is their delusional writings that undermine trust in American institutions. It is a profoundly anti American agenda and straight out of the SVR playbook.

No it would be better those posters put faith and trust in: China , WHO, CDC, CNN, CNBC and the Left. Surely they are all pro government.A non agenda lead group of the real privileged in this country.

 

[RU-05]

I know I've contributed to the unproductive back and forth, but how bout we reign this thing in and get back on topic?

 

[RocktheRac]

Are patient families not allowed in that specific hospital?

Don't know but in NJ you can;t visit. If the spread is so bad all over why is this being allowed then?

 

[RU-05]

Don't know but in NJ you can;t visit. If the spread is so bad all over why is this being allowed then?

Obvious answer is, all the family members of hospital workers are already in the hospital "bubbles". Those kids are exposed to whatever their parents are exposed to anyways.

 

[bac2therac]

No, ironic is that you're the guy who's been five-posted mulltiple times on the weather boards for trolling and yet somehow you don't think you're trolling this thread. It's what you and the CE board folks do and you've done it successfully again. Congrats, I guess.

Actually im asking questions and bringing up contradictions. Thats not trolling. Its keeping people well informed. Its amazing some are asking for censorship. Its also amazing to watch consistently and not just here how anyone who strays from the narrow path decided on what to think about coronavirus is called names and a pusher of misinformation. Interesting cto watch it evolve

A science where no questions are asked

 

[ArminRU]

I asked you before to show me info that went against the chart I posted on Twitter. Yet you never did. You are a troll and that’s it. You are the dummy who responded to me in a previous thread that assumed I was a certain race because of the stuff I was posting. Yet you don’t even know me.

Do your own work. Waste of my time proving random flawed Twitter graphs wrong. Pick Asia, pick any country that was able to flatten the curve back in Spring, a lot of downward sloping graphs you can pin masks to.

 

[bac2therac]

Did you actually read the source article from the NYT? I’m guessing not since that headline is grossly inaccurate.

His quotes about nudging it up based on polls are his

 

[RUBOB72]

Do your own work. Waste of my time proving random flawed Twitter graphs wrong. Pick Asia, pick any country that was able to flatten the curve back in Spring, a lot of downward sloping graphs you can pin masks to.

Seems as those Asian countries are not doing well . Only China who in 12-13 months still only shows 86k positive cases and 4 + k deaths ...82 + k recovered and most of those deaths were in Hubei province.

 

[ArminRU]

Seems as those Asian countries are not doing well . Only China who in 12-13 months still only shows 86k positive cases and 4 + k deaths ...82 + k recovered and most of those deaths were in Hubei province.

Only China? Might want To check your numbers again. Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Japan. All doing way better than the most of the world.

 

[RUBOB72]

Only China? Might want To check your numbers again. Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Japan. All doing way better than the most of the world.

No Japan and South Korea are not doing as well as you imply. Suggest you check again .Oh and Thailand put them on your list of ...uhhhhh oh WTF.

 

[RU_DIO]

Only China? Might want To check your numbers again. Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Japan. All doing way better than the most of the world.

They definitely are doing much better than us. The amount of cases in some of these countries during their new outbreaks are a normal day in some US counties.

 

[ArminRU]

No Japan and South Korea are not doing as well as you imply. Suggest you check again .Oh and Thailand put them on your list of ...uhhhhh oh WTF.

Assuming you’re trolling or don’t know how to use the internet. The “worst” country on that list is Japan and they have 26 deaths per million compared to our 1,034.

 

[RUBOB72]

They definitely are doing much better than us. The amount of cases in some of these countries during their new outbreaks are a normal day in some US counties.

They are lined up once again in South Korea... being better doesn’t mean they don’t have future issues or outbreaks... we have too many people who place these countries on a pedestal but yet millions like coming here if only to visit ...some to work and some who spy upon us. Don’t worry if we survive until 2028 we’ll see a new world... at least the UN thinks so.

 

[RUBOB72]

Assuming you’re trolling or don’t know how to use the internet. The “worst” country on that list is Japan and they have 26 deaths per million compared to our 1,034.

I’m talking about current upticks... in Japan and South Korea. Sorry believe what you want ...google your fact find / truth finder apps. ...trolling ? No just telling what is currently starting this past several weeks especially in SK.

 

[RUBOB72]

And some day you can work and live under those great countries should be fun.

 

[ArminRU]

An interesting report from the CDC on how many Americans have been infected symptomatically (77MM), asymptomatically (14MM), and in total (91MM or about 28% of the US population), through the end of November, based on CDC's models (similar to those used to guesstimate flu infections). Given that viral cases have gone from 14MM to 19.5MM since the end of Nov, that's an increase of 39%, which one would think would mean we're now up to 39% infected in the US, which is about halfway to what many think will be herd immunity (around 80%). The two charts below show the data for total numbers and per 100,000 in each age group.

The report also shows we've likely had about 3.36MM hospitalizations through the end of Nov vs. 275K deaths; I recall seeing this ratio being closer to 5:1, but this is about 12:1. The key point either way is that COVID sends a lot more people to the hospital for a scary few days to weeks than it does to the morgue, so the impacts aren't just deaths. And while those over 65 are about 20X more likely per capita to be hospitalized than those under 18, we're still talking about 0.14% of those under 18 being hospitalized (1.4 out of a 1000 infected) vs. 2.8% of those infected who are over 65 being hospitalized. Deaths in those under 18 are much lower, of course.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

91MM total infections. Wow that seems pretty high. Trying to understand how they got that.....not very clear in their site.

I remember back in the summer after a bunch of states did seropostivity tests, it was thought to be about 10% of the population. But I don’t think this analysis is based on that? Would love to see updated seropositivity analysis.

28% of the population would be great though, and not unrealistic given how bad things got since the 10% estimates.

 

[Phi_1055]

I learned long ago, to never wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it - George Bernard Shaw

 

[RU-05]

I’m talking about current upticks... in Japan and South Korea. Sorry believe what you want ...google your fact find / truth finder apps. ...trolling ? No just telling what is currently starting this past several weeks especially in SK.

The current upticks in those countries are blips relative to ours.

It's true those upticks do show that even the countries that have done the best controlling the virus can at times struggle with it, but the results, to this point, have been that time and again those countries were able to get in under control eventually.

Would be surprised if that is not the case again this time.