There’s no reason we couldn’t do simultaneously if we have the supply. People in LTC aren’t going anywhere and there could have been a plan to get to those facilities utilizing various resources marshaled by government and or private sector.
OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more
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It’s all schedule based. It’s when the nursing homes and medical professionals decided they want to be vaccinated. A lot of people chose to wait until Jan to be vaccinated. We don’t have enough doses yet to set up drive through centers where everyone 65+ can just roll up to.
Excuses, excuses, excuses. Still think we are hitting 20 million vaccinated by next week?
Probably not due to LTC’s scheduling their vaccination events throughout the month. Will probably be closer to 10mil.
There also has only been 12mil doses distributed so far.
Antibodies are not a consideration for vaccination. First, it takes time to do that and second the antibody tests are not always accurate, and third, it's clear that the immune response raised by vaccination is usually superior to that from being infected/recovered, so everyone who can get a vaccine should.
So you missed your projection by 10 million or more because LTC facilities in all 50 states are having the exact same problem??
Your comment on "whispers" implied that people were seeing phase III data ahead of time, since all of the P1/2 data have been shared, as far as I know. It may well be a very good vaccine and my gut tells me it'll be at least 60-70% effective, but we simply won't know until we see the phase III data and the AZ data has to give one some pause and the Russian vaccine data haven't been published yet.
I wouldn’t really call it a problem, it’s just how the pharmacies scheduled things with the limited doses they have. You also can’t vaccinate people if the doses aren’t there, supply is the bigger problem right now.
I forwarded your comment to my son-in-law who is a leader on J&J’s supply chain logistics for the vaccine. He replied, “Yes, exactly. R&D doesn't tell us anything and even the head of R&D has said "in January we'll look at the data and if everything looks good then we'll go to emergency use authorization." I would be surprised if people in that department have any idea of what is going on”
Well, since only the mRNA vaccines are available now, I'd have zero hesitation getting either. Once other ones get approved, I'd then have to see what the data say. However, I'd certainly take 95% efficacy of either mRNA vaccine over the 60-90% efficacy (and remaining clinical questions) of the AZ one if I had a choice, but if I were in the UK where they likely have a lot more of the AZ vaccine, I'd get that over nothing, unless I knew my exposures were negligible. Many of us will have multiple choices in April, when I expect vaccinations to open up to anyone interested and at that point, I'd have to see what all the clinical data look like, but certainly, so far, the mRNA vaccines look best - but if we get one that's just as effective with a single shot (like the J&J one), I'd probably get that one, assuming safety isn't an issue.
You can say supply is part of the reason they won't hit 20million soon. However, you can not say supply is a big problem. It's the lack of planning to vaccinate in a timely manner. As of last night there was over 14 million doses delivered. Yet less than 3 million vaccinated.
That's 11 million doses just sitting around waiting to be used before they expire.
I spent 30+ years at Merck at the interface between R&D and manufacturing, so I was part of launches of most of the major Merck small molecule drugs (i.e., not biologicals/vaccines) the past 30 years and was a key player in the room for the cross-functional planning discussions for supply chains/rollouts and I can tell you that nobody ever had any "inside info" on the phase III trial results before they were unblinded.
Yes, by the time one goes to phase III, confidence is high that one will have a launched product, but some 20-30% don't get launched due to safety or efficacy issues that weren't seen in smaller scale phase I/II trials. The same is often true for vaccines (I did have one vaccine project, since it involved some chemical steps).
Having said that, given that every COVID vaccine is targeting the same thing, essentially (the spike protein), and since phase I/II results for every vaccine so far are showing good immune responses in healthy volunteers, the likelihood of a full failure of any of these vaccines is much lower than for some new diabetes or blood pressure drug, where the complexity of measuring efficaceous endpoints is much greater - it's actually pretty easy to measure whether one did or didn't get COVID and the correlation of immune responses in healthy volunteers to getting or not getting COVID is very high.
I don’t understand why it’s not being administered faster. With how serious the media is saying this virus is you would think they would of had this figured out. I went to my local Walgreens the other day and a big sign on the door no COVID vaccines available. 11 million doses sitting around seems like a lot. I thought this was supposed to be given to the elderly and front line workers first too. I posted earlier about inmates getting vaccinated already. That makes zero sense to me. Hopefully they find a better way to administer this before they expire.
So the lack of a distribution plan should be blamed on the media who is hyping this virus. Brilliant reasoning.
Some thought there is a lag in terms of the numbers of actually vaccinated.
If the vaccines cover the new strain, then the new strain is not much of a story imo.
Oh boy, looks like their diabolical plan has backfired.
"acknowledged that they intentionally removed the vaccine from refrigeration."
That is different then intentionally destroying the vaccines. Need more info here.
I agree although I do have a concern (probably unreasonable) that the shot I get will not have been stored properly and kept at the required temperature
The problem is the sole reliance on pharmacies. Id operation warp speed had thought through the planning on this they could have used other resources. Seems like LTC facilities are a bottleneck in the system and causing future vaccinations of the general public to be delayed. How about sequencing all vaccinations as the supply is delivered so that 12 million could have had one dose administered and then the second dose based upon future supply? Instead of having 2 doses supplied with one administered and one waiting on a shelf as it seems they are doing. The quicker we get into arms the quicker we bend the curve.
I’m one of the few fully unblinded people at Merck, and even I don’t have any inside info. I don’t have all the pieces of the puzzle.
Yes was going to say that I am in group 1a and there are no sites for me to go in Union or Middlesex county;
Also why did they wait to build these 6 super centers in NJ to give out the vaccine when they knew the vaccine was coming these should have been ready for the arrival of the vaccine
500 doses. In the overall scheme of millions on the way to billions this to me looks like fireable stupidity more than anything sinister.
Hospital systems are already stressed and you introduce a variant that's significantly more contagious...that's definitely a big deal. Once enough people are vaccinated, that's a different story. Long way to go on that front.
Mercer County had their first responders begin vaccination 12/28 at Nottingham Fire Co. And from the sound of it, everyone who gets their 1st dose already has a 2nd dose allocated in storage for them, in case of future supply chain issues. Since they have to be administered within a set timeframe between 1st & 2nd dose, you cannot depend on "future supply" to arrive in time.
I fall somewhere between 1B and 1C, and it sounds like we'll get ours "eventually". Any sportsbooks taking action on reaching the 70% of residents before or after June 2020, because with the line jumping already beginning, this shitshow is only going to get worse.
NJ top priority is still health care workers and long term care residents, as per below, but with prison staff/inmates in the next stage along with other groups. I don''t think they're supposed to be getting vaccinations before those top two groups though, but the rollout is bound to have some hiccups. I have zero issue with prison staff/inmates being a high priority, though, as prison staff are at high risk, as well as family members of prisoners from visits/releases, given very high rates in populations at close quarters.Why on earth would we be vaccinating inmates before front line workers and the elderly?
N.J. begins vaccinating prisoners while nursing home residents continue to wait
BRIDGETON, N.J. - New Jersey's curious vaccine priorities continue to engender head-scratching and deep concern as the New Year rapidly approaches. On Tuesday, The Press of Atlantic City reported that the state had begun vaccinating employees and inmates at South Woods State Prison located in Brsavejersey.com
"Health care workers remain the highest priority, followed by the tens of thousands of people who live and work in nursing homes and other long-term health facilities. Prisons would be next in line, along with group homes, federal housing for seniors, the state’s five developmental centers and other facilities, according to the health department."
https://www.nj.com/news/2020/12/nj-...-officer-vaccinations-have-already-begun.html
Does he go on ABC or NBC?
But he was pretty much in line with what you were saying.
January is going to be our worst month of the pandemic, thus any time that we waste now is a missed oppurtunity.
Seemed to think we should be putting it more in the hands of the pharmacies as they have experience administering vaccines. This surprised me as I thought it was already in their hands.
They also noted that there are a bunch of anti body treatments out there that are not being used.
Thanks was wondering about how they were doing that. So 12 million is for 6 million people with 3 million already administered
No I never watch CNBC so I don't know who he is.
Totally agree about wasted time. We are way behind projections. To get 100 million vaccinated by April we need to vaccinate and re-vaccinate over a million people a day! People on here do not understand how difficult that will be. Right now it is looking impossible and complete vaccination of the 70-80% that people say is needed will never happen
No it doesn't work like that at all. They are allocated of future doses not yet in hand.
As it should be health care and long term care residents. That is a major hiccup IMO. If someone has a elderly member who is at risk in a long term care facility and a inmate gets it before them? That should not sit well with most people. I can understand the prison staff getting it but not the inmates. You may not agree but the inmates should not be near the top of the list. I understand they have family members that you say are at high risk from visits but I feel the people not in prison deserve it first. Sadly we have people on this message board who have Covid as well as some of their elderly parents. I would rather their parents get it before a inmate does. This whole thing cant end fast enouogh.
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