Then why do you always quote such garbage ones?
OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more
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Then why do you always quote such garbage ones?
Ok so reduce the number by 12k. What does that mean and why make the argument? It does contribute to the hoax conspiracy theory.
Wait ...a yearlong Hansel & Gretel trail of deleted fake news, walked back tweets and sound bites that required subsequent apologies.
Even if you were to cite a flawless source, no one would read it until someone else posted it. Because you have sub-zero credibility. Why don't you get that?
It's "peer reviewed" but that is nowhere near a major medical journal - the Elsevier journals are considered, collectively to be fairly lightweight by serious scientists. Again, I'm not making this stuff up. I guarantee you that paper will make zero impact, given the far more rigorous RCTs that have already been completed on that patient population, showing no clinical benefit. This is not hard stuff, but you simply don't seem willing to learn or listen to scientific experts.
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Anyone who has been following the controversy regarding ivermectin might be interested in this video. I don't particularly care for some of the views of the host (James Lyons-Weiler) but most of the video is a presentation by Pierre Kory. I don't claim to know what the "truth" is regarding ivermectin but the evidence he presents seems pretty solid and the NIH has even changed their guidelines from "not recommended" to "neither for nor against". Baby steps... From what I'm hearing the WHO is looking at the ivermectin studies in detail and we may be seeing significant changes in guidance before long.
Anyway...Pierre Kory on ivermection (Jan 16)
Anyway...Pierre Kory on ivermection (Jan 16)
I read it that they’ll start the analysis sometime in the next few weeks. If efficacy will hit the press shortly after that, then that’s good. Was thinking we’d have to wait another 2 weeks once they finish the analysis.
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Ivermectin is looking a bit like HCQ looked to me (scientifically, not politically) before the larger RCTs were completed, i.e., it shows mixed results across a bunch of clinical trials, which is what often happens when a drug is ineffective and the trials are small and not always well controlled, as per the NIH guidance, below.
As I've said before, having worked on this drug very early in my career, I'd love to see it truly be effective, but I'm skeptical, as it's an anti-parasitic being used as an antiviral. We need a well run large randomized, controlled trial (like the ones that have been run on the monoclonal antibodies or HCQ) to make some sense of all this. It's disappointing to me, at least, that most of the "breakthrough" COVID clinical trials have been in the UK and not in the US (on HCQ, dexamethasone, lopinavir/ritonavir, etc.).
And as if on cue, a small (24 patients) randomized, controlled trial was just published showing encouraging, but not statistically significant benefits from ivermectin in very mildly ill COVID patients. The study says we need larger RCTs to determine if ivermectin is effective or not. Sounds familiar.
https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/statement-on-ivermectin/
Since the last revision of the Ivermectin section of the Guidelines, the results of several randomized trials and retrospective cohort studies of ivermectin use in patients with COVID-19 have been published in peer-reviewed journals or made available as preliminary, non-peer-reviewed reports. Some clinical studies showed no benefits or worsening of disease after ivermectin use,11-14 whereas others reported shorter time to resolution of disease manifestations attributed to COVID-19,15-18 greater reduction in inflammatory markers,16,17 shorter time to viral clearance,11,16 or lower mortality rates in patients who received ivermectin than in patients who received comparator drugs or placebo.11,16,18
However, most of the studies reported to date had incomplete information and significant methodological limitations, which make it difficult to exclude common causes of bias. The missing information and limitations include the following:
- The sample size of most of the trials was small.
- Various doses and schedules of ivermectin were used.
- Some of the randomized controlled trials were open-label studies in which neither the participants nor the investigators were blinded to the treatment arms.
- In addition to ivermectin or the comparator drug, patients also received various concomitant medications (e.g., doxycycline, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, zinc, corticosteroids), confounding assessment of the true efficacy or safety of ivermectin.
- The severity of COVID-19 in the study participants was not always well described.
- The study outcome measures were not always clearly defined.
To be clear, what will happen, assuming this goes like the other vaccines, is that the data will be unblinded to the company in the next 2 weeks and they'll do a quick analysis and issue a press release. The company will then do a much more thorough data analysis and put together their case for why an EUA should be issued and then meet with the FDA, probably in late February on that. The FDA will then likely take several days to a week (depending on how strong the data look) to approve the EUA (or not, which usually means a company has to gather more data, not that the vaccine is dead, unless there were simply no efficacy, which nobody expects given the immune responses in the early trials).
Another gem @bac2therac cnn got rid of the death count on their side bar. $cience
So refreshing. Fauci said they want to immunize 100 million people in 100 days in that interview. The 100 million shots seems like an easy hurdle. So I am confused by the goal. Realizing they are just uncovering what dismal planning we’ve had at this point but we need to do as least 2 million a day in shots.
I mean that tracks with everything we've known. Lots of gatherings over Christmas/NYE lead to a spike in cases. Now with vaccinations starting, better weather around the corner, we should realistically be plateauing soon
when the virus is back to minor numbers, Bac will post that trump was right when he said “one day - poof - it will be gone” last February (paraphrasing the quote).
FYI - there are a few local vaccine locations near me that are essentially booking any adults. Sounds like demand for NJ group 1a and 1b are low since they are being covered by hospitals, NJ supersites, and direct vaccinations at nursing homes. They are opening daily appointments for any adults (but not advertising this directly). My wife and I can get vaccinated next week, if we would like. If you want a shot ASAP, you may want to start looking around.
I'll quote from the NIH website statement on bamlanivimab. Sounds pretty much like what they are saying regarding ivermectin yet no one here would probably turn down that drug if they got covid. So we'll see what happens. Based on what I've seen, I'll definitely be asking my doctor for ivermectin if I get covid - and if he won't prescribe it I have a backup plan which I may or may not use.
Based on the available evidence, the Panel has determined the following:
- At this time, there are insufficient data to recommend either for or against the use of bamlanivimab for the treatment of outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19.
- Bamlanivimab should not be considered the standard of care for the treatment of patients with COVID-19.
- An interim analysis of the BLAZE-1 study, a Phase 2, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, suggested a potential clinical benefit of bamlanivimab for outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19. However, the relatively small number of participants and the low number of hospitalizations or emergency department visits make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the clinical benefit of bamlanivimab.
- More data are needed to assess the impact of bamlanivimab on the disease course of COVID-19 and to identify those people who are most likely to benefit from the drug. Health care providers are encouraged to discuss participation in bamlanivimab clinical trials with their patients.
Yeah, we're seeing decreasing case counts and positive rates here over the past week or two. Everything you described should be leading to a leveling off or decreasing trend (except for weather, at least up here...plenty of winter ahead) - the big unknown is the potential impact of the new variants which appear to be more transmissible.
Careful there buddy, you are treading on thin ice. That crazy Bob guy is going to call you an elitist.
I would like to see some definitive evidence from the WHO backing up these claims. An organization who botched the recommendations that mask wearing was not necessary, seemingly has coddled China for over a year, and still has failed to inspect the Wuhan lab gets very little credibility in my opinion as a world authority.
Johnson saying some evidence new strain has a higher mortality but that the mRNA vaccines still effective against it.
www.cnbc.com
Boris Johnson says some evidence new Covid variant in the UK may be more deadly
There is "some evidence" a new Covid variant first identified in the U.K. could be more deadly than the original strain, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Friday.
It is a coincidence. Back in Dec, I predicted we'd see the plateau in cases about a week after New Year's and then a peak in deaths a few weeks later, which is what we're seeing now. Cases are on their way down, hospitalizations just peaked and are starting to decline and deaths are peaking now and should start declining pretty rapidly, IMO, given that most of the LTC population has been vaccinated now (that group has had ~40% of all deaths). This wasn't that hard to predict. The only major unknown out there, IMO, is whether the new variants might lead to another spike upwards (my guess is it's already mostly here and we won't see a new spike).
I agree with Fauci here. The CNN reporting and whoever from the Biden Admin overstated the lack of a vaccine plan from the previous Admin. The plan has certainly been pretty poorly executed though, given vaccine rates vs. what was promised and the need to greatly improve the distribution is pretty clear.
Good news: confidence in vaccines is on the increase, as per the latest Harris Poll, as 69% of Americans now say they will get a vaccine, up from 58% a few months ago and near the high of 73% in April. We need that number to be even higher, as "herd immunity" could be as high as 80%, given how transmissible the virus us, but this is a great trend.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/market...t-to-get-a-vaccine-near-pandemic-start-harris
https://www.fiercepharma.com/market...t-to-get-a-vaccine-near-pandemic-start-harris
Johnson saying some evidence new strain has a higher mortality but that the mRNA vaccines still effective against it.
Boris Johnson says some evidence new Covid variant in the UK may be more deadly
There is "some evidence" a new Covid variant first identified in the U.K. could be more deadly than the original strain, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Friday.
That evidence is a real stretch. Boris is a moron for announcing that unless he wanted to unnecessarily spread fear.
I’m still waiting for better proof that the UK strain really is more transmissible.
Anyone know what the real story is with the production schedule of the J&J vaccine? Assuming that the Phase 3 results show the hoped for efficacy, FDA approval could come shortly thereafter. I have read two very conflicting tales of its availability:
1) 100 mil doses were promised (to the US gov) by the end of June, but production is two months behind schedule, and
2) 100 mil doses will be available by May.
Anyone know whether #1 or 2 above is the more likely scenario?
1) 100 mil doses were promised (to the US gov) by the end of June, but production is two months behind schedule, and
2) 100 mil doses will be available by May.
Anyone know whether #1 or 2 above is the more likely scenario?
The the CDC altered its dosing recommendations yesterday to say second doses of the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines can be given up to 6 weeks after the first if getting the 2nd doses on the prescribed 3/4 weeks later schedule is infeasible. Part of this this is a nod to the fact that it's possible some areas might not have enough 2nd shots to meet those original schedules and most experts doubt this will affect vaccine efficacy in any way. It's still way better to get the 2nd shot a few weeks late than not at all.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/clinical-considerations.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...d-vaccine-doesn-t-need-be-exact-just-n1255136
https://globalnews.ca/news/7585267/coronavirus-vaccine-second-dose-delay/
Administration
The mRNA COVID-19 vaccine series consist of two doses administered intramuscularly:
The second dose should be administered as close to the recommended interval as possible. However, if it is not feasible to adhere to the recommended interval, the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines may be scheduled for administration up to 6 weeks (42 days) after the first dose. There are currently limited data on efficacy of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines administered beyond this window. If the second dose is administered beyond these intervals, there is no need to restart the series.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/clinical-considerations.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...d-vaccine-doesn-t-need-be-exact-just-n1255136
https://globalnews.ca/news/7585267/coronavirus-vaccine-second-dose-delay/
Administration
The mRNA COVID-19 vaccine series consist of two doses administered intramuscularly:
- Pfizer-BioNTech (30 µg, 0.3 ml each): 3 weeks (21 days) apart
- Moderna (100 µg, 0.5 ml): 1 month (28 days) apart
The second dose should be administered as close to the recommended interval as possible. However, if it is not feasible to adhere to the recommended interval, the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines may be scheduled for administration up to 6 weeks (42 days) after the first dose. There are currently limited data on efficacy of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines administered beyond this window. If the second dose is administered beyond these intervals, there is no need to restart the series.
Well I’m assuming he got that info from his science advisors and he’s not just going off on his own.
Don’t they say they’re finding higher viral loads with these new strains? I was thinking that might be the reason for the increased mortality if it’s true.
Higher transmission rates mean more infected people per day, such that even if the death rate per infected person is unchanged, there will be more deaths per day. My guess is that's what they're seeing - and we could see the same, although both in the UK and here, vaccinations of LTC residents are well underway and would counter any rise in deaths given they're ~40% of total deaths.
Was looking at the study and there are a ton assumptions. Crazy he would share something like that broadly.
Very encouraging news that came out today, i.e., 100MM doses by May. As of last week (my post above), the best case scenario was #1, with 100MM doses by end of June and maybe 12MM by the end of Feb (earliest EUA is likely) and 60MM by the end of April. Presumably, this means their production issues were fixed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/21/jj-...or-americans-by-spring-board-member-says.html
But Moderna and pFizer will have 200 million each by June. That’s about 30 million a month for each. Just to admin those doses we need to be at 2 million a day. How are we even going to inject JJ?
CDC quietly changes Covid vaccine guidance to OK mixing Pfizer and Moderna shots in 'exceptional situations'
The CDC says the two products are not interchangeable, but it added in updated guidance posted Thursday that it's OK to mix the shots in rare circumstances.
Biden today basically said virus gonna virus
Amazing
Amazing
More on vaccines and their likely ability to still be able to protect against the new variants from the UK, South Africa and Brazil in the article below from Nat Geo. The article is really well done with interviews featuring a number of leading scientists in the vaccine field. One key issue is that the faster we can vaccinate people, the faster we can reduce viral transmissions and the faster we can reduce mutations producing more variants. In addition the article talks about how it should be relatively easy to produce new vaccines if variants eventually "escape" existing vaccines.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...ork-against-new-coronavirus-variants-for-now/
“The variants do have changes in the [virus’s] spike protein, but not enough to make the vaccine not protective,” said Arnold Monto, the acting chair of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccine and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, in a January 11 interview with the medical journal JAMA. “It looks like [existing vaccines] should work, and we’ll know more definitively in the next couple of weeks.”
“We have not seen any evidence yet that the new variants are not going to be covered by the vaccine, and, in fact, the way you stop new variants is to contain the virus,” says Philip Dormitzer, chief scientific officer of viral vaccines at Pfizer’s vaccine research division. “The less replication of the virus there is in the world, the fewer variants that are going to get generated.”
One of the benefits of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines is that they can be updated quickly. But Dormitzer cautions that laboratory research and manufacturing are just two steps in a vaccine’s long, involved journey to someone’s arm. If a vaccine gets updated, government regulators would need to check whether it’s still safe and effective. Researchers say that policies governing the seasonal flu vaccine’s regular updates could provide a good framework.
I know many of us have been called morons for questioning whether or not to take the vaccine. Watching Wolf on CNN today, he was talking to the Atlanta Mayor who said she was in shock Hank died because she saw him getting the COVID vaccine on Jan. 5th same day she took it. He dies 17 days later, still no cause of death or even a mention that Hank took the vaccine. Biden wants 1.5 million vaccinated a day, do you really think they'll share this type of info or the fact they don't know for sure if the vaccine will work past the 3-6 month timeline?
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