OT: Electric vehicles
- Thread starter BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap
- Start date
That’s not exactly exponential. And I suspect that, over time, the EV adoption rate will slow considerably. No way to prove it will or won’t, though, so it’s just a hunch.Another view
Wrong and wrong. EV sales have been growing by about 50% per year in the USA. You know all this, but you only come to this thread to pick stupid arguments and nit pick everything. No one cares that you don't want to buy an EV. As has been posted here 1,000 times, EVs are not for everyone. But for anyone with an open mind, these links are for you:
EV Sales Hit New Record in Q2 2022 - Cox Automotive Inc.
This much we know: New-vehicle sales in the second quarter struggled, up only modestly from the first quarter and down more than 20% from Q2 2021. The reasons are well documented – tight inventory, high prices, consumer sentiment dropping. There were a few positive notes in the Q2 sales numbers...
www.coxautoinc.com
Are We on the Brink of an Electric Vehicle Boom? Only with More Action
Recent data suggests passenger electric vehicles are poised for exponential growth over the next decade. But will this change occur fast enough to decrease transportation emissions enough to prevent dangerous climate impacts?
EVs and the S-Curve
Similar to other value-creating technologies in the past, experts agree that growth in sales of electric vehicles is likely to follow an S-Curve or market diffusion curve. Progress along an S-curve comes in stages. At first, when the technology is newly invented, growth is slow and uncertainty is high. However, as technology costs fall and complementary infrastructure is developed, a tipping point may be reached which causes adoption to grow exponentially. As more actors gain confidence in and adopt the new technology, growth reaches its top speed, then slows and levels out as the new technology becomes dominant in the market.EVs are still early in this projected growth trajectory, with some exponential growth occurring but not yet at top speed. This early on, it is impossible to project the future trajectory, but we can do a simple exercise to illustrate the power of potentially exponential growth.
Since 2015, the global share of new passenger EVs has increased at an average of around 50% per year, a stupendous amount of growth. If growth this rapid continues, EVs would make up 50% of all light-duty vehicles sales by 2026 and 100% by 2028. Of course, EV sales won’t follow this simple exponential growth pattern exactly, and sales are likely to slow and level off before reaching 100%. This growth trajectory suggests that, while reaching 100% EV sales isn’t likely by 2028, it could be by 2040 with the right enabling factors in place, which are discussed in more detail below.
While we don’t yet know what the top speed is for global EV sales growth, since not enough countries have reached that top speed, Norway could offer an indication. EV sales grew from less than 1% of the market share in 2010 to 54% of the market share in 2020. It reached a tipping point, likely through a series of incentives that made EVs cheaper than traditional vehicles. The EV market has developed significantly since 2010 and as EVs approach price parity with traditional vehicles, other countries may need to employ fewer incentives to reach a similar tipping point and could even transition EV sales more quickly than Norway.
As for future growth of EVs, all signs point to continue high rates of growth - exponential S-curve-type growth rates.
electrek.co
www2.deloitte.com
www.globenewswire.com
This is where electric vehicle adoption is headed between 2022 and 2025
EV sales will continue to rise sharply until 2025 as policy pressure grows, more car models arrive, and consumer interest rises.
electrek.co
Electric vehicles
The sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars tipped over the two-million-vehicle mark for the first time in 2019. In this Deloitte report, we take a new approach to market segmentation and exemplify how to seize opportunities and manage risks.
At 24.5% CAGR, Global Electric Vehicle Market Size & Share to Surpass US$ 980 Bn by 2028 | EV Industry Trends, Growth & Forecast Report by Facts & Factors
[225+ Pages Report] According Facts and Factors, the demand of Global Electric Vehicle (EV) Market size is estimated to cross USD 980 billion by 2028, at a...
I have three close coworkers who all own teslas and even they have horror stories of waiting to charge their cars and almost running out. Yeah, I think I will wait until I can fill up in 10 minutes and have range comparable to ice vehicles.
whats the percentage here..i keep asking,
and what does this link prove...BLOOMBERG SAYS...GOOGLE SAYS...what does that even mean....thats not real life
1 percent
Currently, it's estimated that around 1 percent of the 250 million cars, SUVs, and light-duty trucks on American roads are electric.Aug 8, 2022
Currently, it's estimated that around 1 percent of the 250 million cars, SUVs, and light-duty trucks on American roads are electric.Aug 8, 2022
there is no reason to unnatural tank the economy to rush something that is going to happen over time anyway, there should be no time limit mandated . That is the whole point. I would be on board with EVs but what they want to do is evil
all to avoid domestic production which is a no brainer
all to avoid domestic production which is a no brainer
Sorry, but the chart you posted, about which I replied, does not show exactly exponential growth. Look at it. It's unarguable.Wrong and wrong. EV sales have been growing by about 50% per year in the USA. You know all this, but you only come to this thread to pick stupid arguments and nit pick everything. No one cares that you don't want to buy an EV. As has been posted here 1,000 times, EVs are not for everyone. But for anyone with an open mind, these links are for you:
EV Sales Hit New Record in Q2 2022 - Cox Automotive Inc.
This much we know: New-vehicle sales in the second quarter struggled, up only modestly from the first quarter and down more than 20% from Q2 2021. The reasons are well documented – tight inventory, high prices, consumer sentiment dropping. There were a few positive notes in the Q2 sales numbers...
Are We on the Brink of an Electric Vehicle Boom? Only with More Action
Recent data suggests passenger electric vehicles are poised for exponential growth over the next decade. But will this change occur fast enough to decrease transportation emissions enough to prevent dangerous climate impacts?www.wri.org
EVs and the S-Curve
Similar to other value-creating technologies in the past, experts agree that growth in sales of electric vehicles is likely to follow an S-Curve or market diffusion curve. Progress along an S-curve comes in stages. At first, when the technology is newly invented, growth is slow and uncertainty is high. However, as technology costs fall and complementary infrastructure is developed, a tipping point may be reached which causes adoption to grow exponentially. As more actors gain confidence in and adopt the new technology, growth reaches its top speed, then slows and levels out as the new technology becomes dominant in the market.
EVs are still early in this projected growth trajectory, with some exponential growth occurring but not yet at top speed. This early on, it is impossible to project the future trajectory, but we can do a simple exercise to illustrate the power of potentially exponential growth.
Since 2015, the global share of new passenger EVs has increased at an average of around 50% per year, a stupendous amount of growth. If growth this rapid continues, EVs would make up 50% of all light-duty vehicles sales by 2026 and 100% by 2028. Of course, EV sales won’t follow this simple exponential growth pattern exactly, and sales are likely to slow and level off before reaching 100%. This growth trajectory suggests that, while reaching 100% EV sales isn’t likely by 2028, it could be by 2040 with the right enabling factors in place, which are discussed in more detail below.
While we don’t yet know what the top speed is for global EV sales growth, since not enough countries have reached that top speed, Norway could offer an indication. EV sales grew from less than 1% of the market share in 2010 to 54% of the market share in 2020. It reached a tipping point, likely through a series of incentives that made EVs cheaper than traditional vehicles. The EV market has developed significantly since 2010 and as EVs approach price parity with traditional vehicles, other countries may need to employ fewer incentives to reach a similar tipping point and could even transition EV sales more quickly than Norway.
Also, it's simply not possible for you or anybody else to accurately state I'm wrong about the future. The best any of us can do is speculate.
Why would you think I'd know all about all these automotive sales stats? To me, sales stats for cars (of any type or brand) are as interesting and exciting as watching paint dry.
The only reason I commented on the chart you posted is that the lack of exact exponential growth leapt right out at us. Otherwise I'd have skipped past it like all other similar sales stats posts. I just thought it was funny you'd say it's exponential while simultaneously posting a chart showing it's not, actually, exponential.
The juxtapositional humor was my sole interest, nothing more, nothing less. I take it you failed to see the humor. Oh well.
serious question, what is the conspiracy theory I am posting...care to point it out
here is the thing kid, I get it you and a couple of other are gung ho on Evs and excited and I get that, It does mean at this time or even in the next decade its right for everyone. I think people will be perfectly willing to buy Evs in the future as they become safer much cheaper, and the actually infrastructure for charging stations is built. Forcing economic pain and high costs to do that prematurely is something that most common folk are going to resist and they should
By Bjorn Lomberg at the Hoover Institute
Policies Pushing Electric Vehicles Show Why Few People Want One
We constantly hear that electric cars are the future—cleaner, cheaper and better. But if they’re so good, why does California need to ban gasoline-powered cars? Why does the world spend $30 billion a year subsidizing electric ones?In reality, electric cars are only sometimes and somewhat better than the alternatives, they’re often much costlier, and they aren’t necessarily all that much cleaner. Over its lifetime, an electric car does emit less CO2 than a gasoline car, but the difference can range considerably depending on how the electricity is generated. Making batteries for electric cars also requires a massive amount of energy, mostly from burning coal in China. Add it all up and the International Energy Agency estimates that an electric car emits a little less than half as much CO2 as a gasoline-powered one.
The climate effect of our electric-car efforts in the 2020s will be trivial. If every country achieved its stated ambitious electric-vehicle targets by 2030, the world would save 231 million tons of CO2 emissions. Plugging these savings into the standard United Nations Climate Panel model, that comes to a reduction of 0.0002 degree Fahrenheit by the end of the century.
Electric cars’ impact on air pollution isn’t as straightforward as you might think. The vehicles themselves pollute only slightly less than a gasoline car because their massive batteries and consequent weight leads to more particulate pollution from greater wear on brakes, tires and roads. On top of that, the additional electricity they require can throw up large amounts of air pollution depending on how it’s generated. One recent study found that electric cars put out more of the most dangerous particulate air pollution than gasoline-powered cars in 70% of U.S. states. An American Economic Association study found that rather than lowering air pollution, on average each additional electric car in the U.S. causes additional air-pollution damage worth $1,100 over its lifetime.
The minerals required for those batteries also present an ethical problem, as many are mined in areas with dismal human-rights records. Most cobalt, for instance, is dug out in Congo, where child labor is not uncommon, specifically in mining. There are security risks too, given that mineral processing is concentrated in China.
Increased demand for already-prized minerals is likely to drive up the price of electric cars significantly. The International Energy Agency projects that if electric cars became as prevalent as they would have to be for the world to reach net zero by 2050, the annual total demand for lithium for automobile batteries alone that year would be almost 28 times as much as current annual global lithium production. The material prices for batteries this year are more than three times what they were in 2021, and electricity isn’t getting cheaper either.
Even if rising costs weren’t an issue, electric cars wouldn’t be much of a bargain. Proponents argue that though they’re more expensive to purchase, electric cars are cheaper to drive. But a new reportfrom a U.S. Energy Department laboratory found that even in 2025 the agency’s default electric car’s total lifetime cost will be 9% higher than a gasoline car’s, and the study relied on the very generous assumption that electric cars are driven as much as regular ones. In reality, electric cars are driven less than half as much, which means they’re much costlier per mile.
In part this is because electric cars are often a luxury item. Two-thirds of the households in the U.S. that own one have incomes exceeding $100,000 a year. For 9 in 10 of electric-vehicle-owning households, it’s only a second car. They also have a gasoline-powered car—usually a bigger one, such as an SUV, pickup truck or minivan—that they use for long trips, given its longer range. And it takes additional costs to make electric cars convenient—such as installing a charger in your garage. Those who can’t afford it, or who don’t have a garage, will have to spend a lot more time at commercial chargers than it takes to fill up a car with gasoline.
This is all why electric cars still require such massive subsidies to sell. Norway is the only country where most new cars are electric, and that took wiping the sales and registration tax on these vehicles—worth $25,160 a car—on top of other tax breaks such as reduced tolls. Even so, only 12.6% of all Norwegian cars on the road are electric. The country has the wealth to pay for them partly because of its oil revenue, and the trade is dubious: To cut one ton of CO2 emissions through the subsidization of electric cars, Norway has to sell 100 barrels of oil, which emit 40 tons of CO2.
Needless to say, other countries’ car stocks aren’t likely to be anywhere close to 100% electric anytime soon. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that barring new legislation only about 17% of all new U.S. cars will be electric by 2050, which translates to 13% of the total American car stock. As consumers continue to vote with their wallets against electric cars, it is hard to imagine places like California continuing to demand that they can purchase only electric ones.
Electric vehicles will take over the market only if innovation makes them actually better and cheaper than gasoline-powered cars. Politicians are spending hundreds of billions of dollars and keeping consumers from the cars they want for virtually no climate benefit.
Mr. Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus, a visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and author of “False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.”
10 minutes? I haven't had a fuel stop that took 10 minutes in my memory.
How much does it cost to install an at-home charging station?
just as I thought, you were challenged and you cannot take it. Its all good. I will be checking into this thread from time to time
You obviously are aware those numbers aren't to be trusted. They're fabricated by baby-eating liberal Nazis, at the behest of their Jewish banker overlords.
Many people are saying...
Where's "here"?
New car registrations.
Don't forget the space lasers.
You are correct to question the number. WhichReligion actually posted a link to an article that said it was 1% in CA. I would guess, but am not certain, that CA is one of, if not the, leading EV adoption states in the US at the moment.
I've been seeing a variety of different numbers about what the percentage of EVs to total vehicles are on US roadways. So yeah, nothing wrong with asking that question.
Safer? I'd love to learn more..
People want EVs because they're great vehicles and fun to drive. That's it. I bought an EV while Emperor Trump was in office, so it's not because Grandpa Joe held a gun to my head. It is the most fun thing I've ever owned. I will never go back to an ICE car. Many others are learning about EVs and jumping on. This same trend has happened with virtually every other new technology. You're being duped by turning this political.
You're literally the only one tracking this data by "total vehicles in existence". Like that's reliable.
New car sales show 5% EV adoption in the United States. That's the metric used. Look around. Lots more EVs on the road. They could be holograms though. I thought I would mention that before you did.
really so the stats ive googled are lying..hmm
and NJ has a lot of cars and yes there are evs here unsurprisingly in such a deep blue affluent state
thats very good for you
except to deny to whole push for EVs is being handled politically by progressives is really odd
i didnt make it political, look who is talking about clean energy and mandates
Saying that clean energy is the work of "progressives" and otherwise sneering at the concept is about as fat-orange-ass-fukkin-backwards-stupid as is possible.
Also happy to see that every sentence Bac writes remains an exercise in cryptology.
Also happy to see that every sentence Bac writes remains an exercise in cryptology.
You’ve never owned anything more fun than your EV? Just out of curiosity, what ICE cars have you owned?
Ford reports strong demand for new vehicles — EV sales have tripled - Autoblog
Ford Motor Co on Tuesday reported strong U.S. demand for new vehiclesin September amid inflation worries, with EV sales tripling over last year.
www.autoblog.com
people sure like their trucks...
Ford reports strong demand for new vehicles — EV sales have tripled - Autoblog
Ford Motor Co on Tuesday reported strong U.S. demand for new vehiclesin September amid inflation worries, with EV sales tripling over last year.
people sure like their trucks...
From the article, a few stats on vehicle sales for a few manufacturers (emphasis added).
Ford sold 142,644 vehicles in September, down 8.9% as compared to a year earlier, though sales of EVs were up 197%. More than 50% of retail sales were coming from previously placed orders — and retail orders for 2023 model-year vehicles were up 244%.
Its peers General Motors Co reported on Monday a 24% jump in quarterly sales while Toyota Motor's U.S. sales declined 7.1% to 526,017 vehicles in the same period.
SoCal is getting smarter. They are doing these rolling blackouts later so less people are effected. Or know about them. Like last night.
I'm not being political/partisan. The transition to renewable energy is inevitable. Either we get off fossil fuels or humanity collapses. That's the choice. We have the technology to begin this transition right now rather than kicking the can down the road for future generations to worry about.
LOL.
So which is it? The stats you Googled are accurate or is Google not real life, manipulating data/stories/searches as you alleged?
You also linked to a CNN article which I assume you've called Fake News in the past. Funny how Google and CNN and other MSM are perfectly fine sources when they say something you agree with, but once any of them have anything that runs counter to your beliefs, well, they are full of it, fake, manipulated, etc.
You’re wrong. I don’t care what you didn’t find. You basically live in Oregon. I live in the epicenter where they are happening.
