OT-First day of Spring snowstorm
- Thread starter RU5781
- Start date
Apparently there's one model predicting a foot of snow for parts of the area. That's all I got, I'm not #s.
bingo...the models had snow yesterday and the weenies went beserk and then it took it away, have to have a pretty perfect setup to get snow this late...and before someone runs in and says it can happen, duh I know that. Models show it today but alot of things can wrong this late in the year so I would say we wont know until Saturday or even later if it really will happen
Was wondering if someone would start a thread on this. Snow is always a low probability event this late in the season, but there have been at least a few notable late season snowstorms in this area, so it's not impossible. The setup is as good as it gets this time of year, with regard to unseasonably cold air being brought down from the NW in the wake of a midwestern snowstrom and associated cold front which comes through on Friday, followed by coastal cyclogenesis off the Carolinas late Saturday into late Sunday, with the resulting coastal low potentially coming up the coast bringing rain and/or snow to the area on Sunday into early Monday.
As always, the key questions are the track, the intensity of the precip, and the amount of cold air in place. Given climatology, rain is more likely than snow, but most significant late season snowstorms in these parts were just barely snow, i.e., it was a close call between rain and snow and mostly rain was forecast a few days out and mostly snow fell. So, at this point, expect rain, but keep an eye on it, as snow is possible and potentially heavy snow at that. If you want to follow the models, see the link to the thread on AmericanWx. Also, the NWS-Philly discussion is below.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48056-possible-320-321-coastal-storm/page-2
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD A STORMIER SOLUTION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, MAKING A LATE
WINTER STORM SCENARIO POSSIBLE. BESIDES WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAY
ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WPC GUIDANCE
WINDS LOOKED TOO LOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SO
SOME OF THE 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
STILL A LONG WAY TO GO FOR THIS EVENT. MONITOR THE FORECAST.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
As always, the key questions are the track, the intensity of the precip, and the amount of cold air in place. Given climatology, rain is more likely than snow, but most significant late season snowstorms in these parts were just barely snow, i.e., it was a close call between rain and snow and mostly rain was forecast a few days out and mostly snow fell. So, at this point, expect rain, but keep an eye on it, as snow is possible and potentially heavy snow at that. If you want to follow the models, see the link to the thread on AmericanWx. Also, the NWS-Philly discussion is below.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48056-possible-320-321-coastal-storm/page-2
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD A STORMIER SOLUTION FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. POPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, MAKING A LATE
WINTER STORM SCENARIO POSSIBLE. BESIDES WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAY
ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WPC GUIDANCE
WINDS LOOKED TOO LOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SO
SOME OF THE 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
STILL A LONG WAY TO GO FOR THIS EVENT. MONITOR THE FORECAST.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Dan Zarrow 101.5 FM said on his forcast this morning....potential from 0 to 14 inches. I put my plow in the back of the barn so you know it will snow now. Have at it. News director Eric Scott really hyping it up.
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Yesterday weather bug had central Jersey at 3-5", this morning it's at 5-8". So I guess it's trending to be for real.
A major rain/wind producing Nor'easter would be just as bad. Six years ago almost to the day we had one of the worst. Check your sump pump(s)
No. You saw some shit on Facebook that somebody made up. There has been absolutely ZERO predictions by any meteorologist of snowfall amounts and not one single model run brings that much snow to the NY metro area.
Weather.com is not a reliable source of information and is not generally considered in this forum.
Wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"The 12z models are all in and they all continue to show a potential major snowstorm coming for the region Sunday evening into Monday.
The euro shows the most with a widespread 8-14 inches of snow.
The GFS shows 5-9 inches.
The Canadian has the storm west giving heavy snow to NW of NYC but only a few inches at the coast as it keeps it warm there.
Bottom line is if you have plans for Sunday evening and Monday, stay tuned as while the details still need to be worked out, a storm is coming. Questions remain as to who sees snow and if anyone will mix. It also must fall at night for best accumulation."
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On American Weather, some were predicting 8-12 at the coast and 12-18 NW based on the most recent Euro run. Not saying it will verify, but I'm not liking the trends on the Euro right now. Thought we didn't have to track this crap for another year.
Some of us have been running our AC units, and it works better with the cover off. I turned on the AC with the cover on, and it was not good.
If you are running the AC in NJ now you have to be crazy..open a window.
.I am in Fla...it was 90F yesterday and the 1st time I fired up the AC
.I am in Fla...it was 90F yesterday and the 1st time I fired up the AC
There is a reason there are pro mets....the weenies on americanwx just take the storm output qpf from the model showing the most snow. In a March setup alot of things to be factored in like ground temps, snowfall rates, marginal temps that can drastically alter what the snowmaps put out.
Tango is absolutely correct on the models. Having said that, no meteorologist is predicting more than a few inches of snow 3 days out in the first day of meteorological spring. They'll note that it could be a moderate to major snowstorm, but could still be mostly rain or mostly out to sea, as per below from the NWS in NYC.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BASICALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE PHASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS IS PART OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL STEER AND HELP A LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...THE LOW THEN
DEVELOPS INTO POTENTIALLY A NOR`EASTER WITH WESTERN AMPLIFICATION
AND ALMOST SECONDARY CYCLONGENESIS AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES ENHANCED
ON THE WESTERN SIDE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT WITH
A WEAKER LOW AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE
LESS...ALLOWING FOR MORE RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...A
STRONGER LOW WITH TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION
ALOFT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW...FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH MOST DYNAMICS
STAYING OFFSHORE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF AT
LEAST 6 INCHES...MOST OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MAX POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM IS AROUND 12 INCHES CLOSE TO WHICH
THE ECMWF CONVEYS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
I realize that history has demonstrated that you're hysterically bad at this, but as a reminder - a single weenie map from the Operational run of the Euro does not a forecast make.
When you stake you reputation on individual model runs, you very quickly run out of credibility.
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