I like you, but an FYI...posts like this are probably why people don't. Time to let things go after a week.
OT-First day of Spring snowstorm
- Thread starter RU5781
- Start date
the cold snap is expected to be 2-3 days..with one day of real cold on either Sunday or Monday depending on which source you use accucrap or NWS... I see for my area are forecasted in the low 40s for one day and then mid to upper 40s after that..its not that cold...are you now trying to hype a cold event now and then actually talking about snow...lol are you buying that gfs 10 day snow weenie map...you say potential but the potential is like 10% so I wouldnt start panicking the masses just yet over a 10 day 6z GFS snow map that would end up as white rain in reality.
did you really revive this pathetic thread on a snow event where most received absolutely nothing to talk about what Mt Holly said on Friday afternoon about the event while all the models were trending against snow and Mt Holly quickly changed their tune and any snow map I saw they put up showed 1 inch amounts for my area not 3-6 inches..who cares
you also said that it was likely we would see several inches..this was like 5 days before the storm..honking honking honking....Nick Gregory going with about 6", but noted possibility of up to a foot, while Lee Goldberg predicted 1-3" for coastal areas south of 195, 3-6" for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC/LI, and 6"+ N and W of 287/78 in NJ and north of 287 in northern NJ/NY. Still a long ways to go, but at least a significant snowfall (3-6") is looking likely for most and a major snowfall (>6") is possible for most. A total rainstorm and an out to sea solution are becoming pretty unlikely.
So, the answer is no, then, you can't admit you were clearly wrong and you still can't give credit when I'm right on something, despite you saying I wouldn't be. Got it, that's all I wanted to know. I already said I was wrong on this one and that the NWS and most pros busted badly. It happens.
Of course the potential is low. If I were trying to hype it, I'd start a thread with a big headline talking about potential snow. Simply based on climatology, April snow is rare, but given the upcoming pattern and temps, instead of snow being less than a 1% chance a week out in early April, it's probably up to maybe a 5% chance. Still way too low to worry about, but enough of a chance that it's worth keeping an eye on. Hence it being buried in this thread.
Also, while the last possible freeze date for most of CNJ is a ways off (late April), most years see a last freeze in early April, so there are folks who take some risks in doing plantings as early as early April, so they might want to know about the potential freeze early next week.
http://www.howdogardener.com/439-2/freeze-and-frost-dates
still a long ways to go, but at least a significant snowfall (3-6") is looking likely for most and a major snowfall (>6") is possible for most. A total rainstorm and an out to sea solution are becoming pretty unlikely.
Yeah, I debated posting at all, as I figured it might annoy a few folks, but I assumed most people not involved will just ignore these last few posts, but maybe not. Anyway, sure I could've just let it go, but I find it mildly annoying when people can't admit they're wrong (bac, in this case) and I find it moderately annoying when people falsely accuse me of doing something I didn't (this thread on the "banning") - and then basically call me a liar (in the other thread on the 3/20 snowfall) when I reiterate I didn't. Spanky could help with that one (I assume he's the mod that banned Bus/Roc from this thread), although I guess it's always possible people wouldn't believe him either. World won't end for anyone if none of this comes to pass, but figured I'd give it one more shot.
Do you think pros shouldn't provide a forecast on what looks to be the most likely outcome at the time (which I merely reported on)? The system evolved differently from what looked most likely on Thursday night, as per most major sources, including Nick Gregory and Lee Goldberg, two of the most respected mets in the area, and as per what the NWS in Philly said early Friday morning. What you quoted from me above was reasonable at the time. Of course it didn't play out like that.
They and the NWS changed their tune over the next two days, decreasing snowfall forecasts, based on the system's evolution - mostly due to it simply ending up weaker, but also due to it moving further east. Have you written letters/emails to them criticizing them for "hyping" it 2-3 days in advance and eventually being wrong?
The main thing you do here is take the low side on every storm, since you hate snow and you end up being "right" when storms underperform, but wrong when they meet expectations or overperform. I try my best to figure out what's most likely, but also highlighting the range of uncertainties around what's most likely, and usually that ends up being whatever the local NWS offices predict, since over many, many years, I've found them to be the most accurate/unbiased sources (no profit motive and no need to hype, as some media sources do, which we all agree on). And I'll continue to do that, despite your regular sniping.
Screw gardening. This means I have to wait even longer to put my summer tires back on. Which means I have to keep it under 145. WTF?
You weather weanies need to get control of this ridiculous weather we're having.
no you used strong words as 3-6 inches looking likely and out to sea pretty unlikely....this for a storm who had a model showing nothing GFS and the NAM not much which of course is tossed because it shows no snow...and despite the other models flip flopping run to run. I had said we will not get a read on this until Saturday which was pretty true actually. You should know that March snows are rare for a reason and snows of 3-6 even rarer so alot of honking for a system that you should have had some more skepticism on rather than honking. As for the tv mets...they honked too because its part of the hype machine and they have to alert the public, most times mets have to take the safe side and that includes NWS at times
I made my post about 3-6" looking likely after seeing Nick Gregory and Lee Goldberg going with that and more and after seeing the midnight models that Thursday evening showing a range from an inch or two to a foot of snow. Then, about 4 hours after my post, the NWS in Philly said,
"AREAS N/W OF PHL SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...CAME UP WITH A BAND OF ROUGHLY 4 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM-TOTAL SNOW ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA."
You think that's honking. I don't. We disagree. You ended up being right on this one and I ended up being wrong.
Yet you can't even admit that your statement, "Mt holly calling for 3-6...for who...coastal NJ...they certainly were not saying that for inland CJ" was proven wrong in the earlier post and, obviously, this one, if you just read what's in caps, where Mt. Holly was clearly calling for about 4-5" for the "NW half of the forecast area" which includes "inland Central Jersey."
Still way too early for any thread on April snowfall, but I found the NWS-WPC Day 7 snowfall probability map to be of interest. Puts our area in the 10-30% risk zone for getting about 2-3" of snowfall for 4/5. This is NOT a forecast by any stretch - the point is to highlight that we'll have anomalously cold air in place at this time (greater than 10F below normal is likely, with normal being about 58/37F), with some precip possible, meaning snow is more likely than normal, but still not likely, per se. Will need to see how this evolves.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php
LOL - good job! My new favorite pic. Easily describes 90% of those engaged in a losing argument.
Since half of the reason most of us are here is to argue, I'll argue this point. Regardless of the argument bac and I are having, doubling down in the situation shown is a great bet and one which any blackjack player would make (graphic would be a lot better if it showed the player with a hard ten and the dealer with a facecard up and a hidden hole card; most places don't show the hole card - in fact not sure any do, unless they completely restructure the odds). Maybe it's supposed to be more about the symbolism and not the probability of the outcome, but it's hard for me to not look at it from the probability perspective.
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This whole thing is silly at this point.
#s, thanks for posting about the cold weather - it is helpful for those who don't pay close attention to the weather, for things such as planting/gardening/etc. For instance, I have potted plants that I keep inside for the winter, and they will not be going back outside yet. However, even mentioning the possibility of snow at this point (even with the caveat of our not seeing snow in April since 2003) is overdoing it a bit - you routinely preach not to trust any forecasts this far out, and beyond "it's going to be cold, and there's likely to be some precipitation" is probably a bit on the wishful thinking side of the line, no matter how large of an asterisk you put next to it.
bac, dude, come off it. Hyping? Honking? I generally like your Eeyore-like counterpoint to #'s Tigger, but this is starting to sound more like a vendetta than anything rational. I understand you might be a bit on tilt because Rock got thread-banned, but it's getting a little ridiculous (and for the record, Rock deserved it, imo - and no, I didn't whistle him, either).
#s, thanks for posting about the cold weather - it is helpful for those who don't pay close attention to the weather, for things such as planting/gardening/etc. For instance, I have potted plants that I keep inside for the winter, and they will not be going back outside yet. However, even mentioning the possibility of snow at this point (even with the caveat of our not seeing snow in April since 2003) is overdoing it a bit - you routinely preach not to trust any forecasts this far out, and beyond "it's going to be cold, and there's likely to be some precipitation" is probably a bit on the wishful thinking side of the line, no matter how large of an asterisk you put next to it.
bac, dude, come off it. Hyping? Honking? I generally like your Eeyore-like counterpoint to #'s Tigger, but this is starting to sound more like a vendetta than anything rational. I understand you might be a bit on tilt because Rock got thread-banned, but it's getting a little ridiculous (and for the record, Rock deserved it, imo - and no, I didn't whistle him, either).
the 12z Euro on its last run took away the weenies fantasy potential for snow
Cold air is coming for later this weekend with temperatures plummeting below freezing into the teens and 20s:
And the 12Z Canadian shows 6-12" of snow for Central/North Jersey/NYC etc. I have no idea what's going to happen, but one run of the Euro does not kill this threat, just like one run of the Canadian doesn't mean we're getting any snow. This far out the only use of the models is to highlight that there's going to be cold air in place and that we may also have a storm and some of the precip may be snow. I kind of like what the NWS-NYC said:
THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SNOW TO RAIN. PREDICTABILITY IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.
IT COULD JUST REMAIN DRY AND COLD.
Any storm in April is likely to have temperature issues, but if the ingredients happen to come together (unlikely right now, but possible), those temps will be much colder and temps might not be an issue, like they weren't for most in April 2003 and 1982. Need a strong storm, with dynamic cooling and high intensity precip to get snowfall accumulation in April, especially during daylight. Wouldn't bet on it, but will track it...
oh the same Canadian that led to the a 6 page thread on a storm that most people saw nothing
you go ahead and track it
you go ahead and track it
Huh? People got excited for the 3/20 storm because the Euro showed a significant to major snowstorm 3-5 days out (just look at the start of this thread, which wasn't by me, by the way) and the Euro is still the best model, overall. Of course, I'll track it, since some of us find that to be fun.
While some weenies get all wound up whenever any model shows a snowstorm, they need to realize that for every actual major snowstorm there are probably a few hundred model runs in the 5-10 day period, over an entire winter (with an estimated 2000 major global model runs in a winter, each providing output for 10-15 days, producing 20-30K outcomes in a winter) that show a major snowstorm, i.e., most model runs in that timeframe are wrong. Which is why I'm pretty sure I've never started a snowstorm thread on this board earlier than 5 days before the event.
I don't either, which is why I said it was unlikely. There's a reason why we've only ever had 10 Aprils with 4" or more of snow in Central Park in 147 years and only 2 in the last 60 years. Hard to fight climatology.
None of last night's models showed a significant snowstorm, but a few showed some snow. If I had to make a bet right now, I'd bet on white rain, i.e,. some snow falling, but not accumulating much, due to lack of intensity and marginal temps (somewhat similar to 3/20 for most).
However, from what I remember, the 2003 storm wasn't well predicted and I know the 1982 one wasn't, so to me it's worth keeping an eye on it, just in case.
The cold wave looks to be centered around two days....Sunday and Tuesday..both days will be quite cold and Sunday very blustry. High will likely remain in the low 40s. Monday actually could be a spike into the 50s. From wednesday on highs should moderate from near 50 into the 50s as we go along
Wind Advisory looking likely Sat night into Sunday and with the growing season starting on April 1st in SE sections of our area, a freeze warning is possible for Monday morning with temps likely to be below freezing area-wide.
Still a chance for rain changing to snow Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially N/W of I-95 - nobody is calling for significant accumulations at this time, but still worth watching, as we're still 4-5 days out.
A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAINE TO START SUNDAY,
WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF PRESSURE RISES, CAA SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
/GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH/ SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 60
KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AND
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. THE VEGETATION ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IS OFF TO AN EARLY START AND THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS. THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS ACROSS MUCH OF
DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND ON APRIL 1ST.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING MONDAY THEN BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST, AND COOLING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY RESULT IN RAIN
MIXING WITH AND EVEN CHANGING TO SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. WE WENT WITH A CONTINUITY/WPC
BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH RAISED THE POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHC RANGE MONDAY NIGHT.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Still a chance for rain changing to snow Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially N/W of I-95 - nobody is calling for significant accumulations at this time, but still worth watching, as we're still 4-5 days out.
A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAINE TO START SUNDAY,
WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF PRESSURE RISES, CAA SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
/GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH/ SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 60
KNOTS TRAVERSES THE AREA AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AND
BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. THE VEGETATION ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IS OFF TO AN EARLY START AND THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST HOLDS. THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY BEGINS ACROSS MUCH OF
DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND ON APRIL 1ST.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING MONDAY THEN BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE COAST, AND COOLING SHOULD BE
TAKING PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY RESULT IN RAIN
MIXING WITH AND EVEN CHANGING TO SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. WE WENT WITH A CONTINUITY/WPC
BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH RAISED THE POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHC RANGE MONDAY NIGHT.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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