#'s , I like your posts on weather,and don't let shortbus get under your skin. It's what he's known for.
OT-First day of Spring snowstorm
- Thread starter RU5781
- Start date
Show your work. You can't, because nobody "called" for 14" - at most some mets said a foot of snow was "possible" but way too early to predict that much.
Here is one. Anyone getting 7in today?I don't, but it ain't over. Models, by definition, become more accurate as one gets closer to the event. The differences between the snowy camp and the near miss camp are not that large from a meteorological perspective, where track errors of 100 miles are not unusual 24-36 hours out and that's the difference right now between the model camps. None of the models have been that great this year, so it's difficult to "know" which camp is right (figuring out which one is most likely to be correct is why some mets are better than others, but even the best can't "know" the outcome at this point).
Also, much of the snow would fall after about 5 pm, so accumulation would be more likely with less indirect sunlight and colder temps (still a bit above 32F though). DT/WxRisk is relatively bullish on snow for our area - at least from I-95 and SE-ward towards the coast and for NYC east through LI and eastern New England - and he declared winter dead for the coastal plain 3 weeks ago, lol. His final call snowfall map is below.
I also included you with Tango which may seem irrational to you but when you openly express your disappointment on every storm that falls apart than your closer to his complete bizarre suggestion than you may want to believe.
You said no one was hyping this storm? Just go back to the beginning and read all the posts. There are plenty of examples.
I see 4in of ice at very specific locations throughout the area. If you are near a Rita's Italian Ice today be careful . Free small ice on the first day of Spring.
Go back and reread all the threads. Thursday morning Dan Zarrow called for 0 to 14 inches. Even your thread shows up to 12 so what is 2 inches more. This was a hype machine with this Spring Snow dotting the headlines.
Roc and Bus are just weather trolls. Probably best to just put them on ignore, #'s - at least during hurricane and snow season.
Oh another weather weenie in a bad mood because he thought was going to get a big storm and is wrong ...again!
The real trolls are the media and you weather weenies who hype storms that never occur.
These threads are just discussions about potential weather systems. If you work a job that requires you to be in no matter what, you appreciate the info and use it with other info sources to plan ahead. I never understood why these discussion evoke such a-hole behavior.
Amen.
Always appreciate those who post with opinions based on real knowledge, not wishcasting.
Nam rgem have minor accumulations for alot of us..such a marginal situation like most March storms...coast may do better
Let's get facts out there. Mets called for large amounts 3 days ago.The threads here were biased for snow. Less than an inch here. As a matter of fact the MILFS weren't even at the Hillsborough Deli today so that shows they will get less than they wanted.
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Another thread overwhelmed by people who just seem to want to bicker about things.
This isn't the weenie board - if you wish to address his posts over there please do so. Don't bring it over here though.
Your lack of meteorological knowledge is only surpassed by your inability to construct coherent arguments. I have no idea if anyone is getting 7" today, but when one of the best meteorologists in the business posts his final call map, I pay attention and so should everyone else. And as I said in the post after I posted his map, my point of posting the map was to highlight that the threat wasn't dead, as some were saying. Also, he forecasted a range of 4-7" for the NJ coast, not "7 inches," meaning if someone in that area gets the 4" forecast by the NWS (2-4" forecast), then his forecast will verify - he's only a bit higher than the NWS, which is not "hype."
And you're still lying, as DT's forecast is nowhere near a worst case scenario - as of when I posted that, there were models showing 6" or more for the I-95 corridor - that would be posting the worst case, which I did not do (and there are still models showing more than 1-3" for I-95, which I haven't posted today). So, again, you're lying and I don't really like it, but I can't make you stop - can only appeal to your sense of fairness.
Also, DT may have had a tough year with his free forecasts on FB, but so have a lot of people. I happen to know Dave Tolleris (he's good friends with a good friend of mine) and he's one of the more highly paid weather forecasters out there (commodities business), who's getting paid way more than 90% of mets for a good reason - he's extremely good at what he does. He also does not hype forecasts like some other on-line pros do, because he makes enough off what he does privately to not have to worry about clicks and ads - he doesn't even have ads on his FB page - how many people with 100K+ followers don't have ads?
Finally, if the NWS maps don't verify (and many other mets have similar forecasts of 1-3" for the I-95 corridor and 2-5" for the NJ coast and 4-7" for eastern LI), it's not that anyone's hyping their forecasts - these forecasts are indicative of what most of the models are showing, along with meteorological knowledge of the evolving system - if the forecasts don't verify, they're simply wrong. It happens, as it's a very difficult profession to be right in that often, as the science, while hugely improved over the last 25 years, is still far from simple or easy. Having said that, so far the 12Z model suite is coming in drier and weaker, with less snow than last night's models - if that verifies, today's forecasts by almost everyone will bust; still have the GFS and Euro to go, though, so will have to see...
Also, who else has hyped this storm in this thread? I don't really count Tango's incessant posting of model output in close to real time as hyping: he just likes to post them, which is unnecessary, but is easy to ignore for most.
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Measured in 5 separate locations in my yard. My calculator would not give me an average,
Maybe the MILF in the trendy restaurant thread?
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...rants-in-middlesex-county.82359/#post-1748214
I did get a chuckle out of this - someone said it's because it was doing pretty well on this storm so far (it never showed a big snowstorm), meaning something must be wrong with it, lol.
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1642Z SUN MAR 20 2016
NCO AND EMC STAFF CONTINUE TO TROUBLESHOOT THE PROBLEM WITH THE
12Z GFS. DELAYS AT THIS POINT ARE APPROACHING 2 HOURS AND WILL
GROW LONGER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES AS MORE
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1642Z SUN MAR 20 2016
NCO AND EMC STAFF CONTINUE TO TROUBLESHOOT THE PROBLEM WITH THE
12Z GFS. DELAYS AT THIS POINT ARE APPROACHING 2 HOURS AND WILL
GROW LONGER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES AS MORE
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
Of course, as soon as I post this and the joke about the GFS being broken, the 12Z GFS finally comes out and shows 2-4" for the I-95 corridor (1-3" is the NWS forecast for the I-95 area from Philly to NYC). This is in agreement with the Canadian, but is at odds with the latest NAM/UK (and short range HRRR), which aren't showing much snowfall for I-95. Here's what the NWS-NYC just said - I bolded the last part - going to be a close call between <1" and 2-3" along I-95.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
12Z NAM NOT AS WET AS 6Z NAM. 9Z SREF PUSHES 1/2 INCH QPF
WEST OF NYC...FOR NOW REMAINS OUTLIER WITH 00Z CMC-GLOBAL IN DOING
THIS. LATEST HRRR/RAP TRENDING MORE OFFSHORE WITH CORE OF
PRECIPITATION. GFS RUNNING AT LEAST 30 MINUTES BEHIND SCHEDULE. SO
GIVEN THIS...NO CHANGES MADE TO SNOWFALL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ALL LATEST TRENDS DO IS RE-ENFORCE FACT THAT WESTERN EDGE
OF SNOW SHIELD IS GOING TO BE HARD TO PIN DOWN UNTIL EVENT GETS
UNDERWAY OVER THE AREA.
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Meteorological drama and tough talk...hilarious! it's like being back in the old met building at Cook...where the tiniest meteorological detail would be fought over to exhaustion...
50s and low 60s coming up!! Now THAT is worth getting excited about!
50s and low 60s coming up!! Now THAT is worth getting excited about!
I wish people would argue meteorological details, instead of the really stupid things people argue about in these threads. Whatever. Yeah, I love spring, too - love all the changes of seasons. The only weather I really don't like is hot weather, although I love warm summer evenings after a hot day.
Well, the NWS in Philly has downgraded the storm a bit, slicing about an inch or so off of snowfall forecasts everywhere, so that now the I-95 corridor is predicted to only get about an inch (and very little well N/W of I-95) and towards the coast is predicted to get maybe 2-3", where they have maintained the Advisories (an advisory is when 2" or more is predicted in 12 hours).
The NWS in NYC has also cut back snowfall amounts west of the Hudson; they're still calling for 1-3" in NYC, but only an inch or so in NE NJ east of the Turnpike and <1" west of there. They still have advisories up for Nassau/sestern Suffolk for 3-5" of snow and warnings up for eastern Suffolk for 4-8" of snow. A little surprising, honestly, as the model consensus didn't seem to decrease my much, but they're the pros.
Still a lot of uncertainty, as the 18Z NAM just came out and shows 2-4" for New Brunswick to NYC. Problem is we're worrying about really minor differences in precip, i.e., 0.1-0.2" of precip vs. 0.2-0.4" of precip, which doesn't sound like a lot, but is the difference between and inch or so of snow and 3-4" of snow. An inch of snow on cars/grass would be a non-issue. 3-4" of snow on colder surfaces with maybe an inch or so on paved surfaces would be an issue for travelers and the morning commute. Radar watching time...
Omg did my brother Rock get banned. Oh geez the mod went on a power trip. Are you really telling me people were complaining? What exactly did he say that was wrong. RU#s shouldnt be the only one allowed to post about the weather. Something smells fishy
General question. I normally come here for the most recent forecast, but sometimes it's not updated as recently as I'd hope. I know everyone dislikes weather.com. What site is good for a forecast easily understood by a non-met like me?
No, he and WhiteBus got banned from THIS thread, since they both had added over a page to it by just bickering.
Just go to the NWS site in Mt. Holly or wherever you're located and click on your county, then your specific location for a simple and easy to understand 7-day forecast - and it's staffed 24/7 by pros who know the area, so they generally do the best job of almost anyone (with no driver to hype, like some in the media or some of the FB charlatans one sees out there).
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
39F and it just started snowing lightly a few minutes ago in Metuchen and elsewhere based on reports I'm seeing and radar. Obviously, snow is melting during daylight hours at these temps, but clearly it's cold enough aloft for snow, which is slightly surprising - thought it might start as rain.
I'm about as libertarian as it gets on message boards - I didn't even think abc or rutgers95 should be banned (and 95 was falsely and repeatedly calling me a racist and threatening me). Having said that, WhiteBus was clearly trolling me and Rock was just saying dumb stuff, both of which led to arguments. I don't love having to argue with people trolling, but I'll do it.
However, it's a business and if the mods want to ban people from specific threads to keep them from becoming a mess, that's up to them. I absolutely did not, however, complain to the mods - I'm a big boy and can defend myself quite well and I think most people would say I KO-ed Bus in the argument, which wasn't too hard, as he was way in the wrong. Back to the weather...
Here in Hazlet, starting to get Styrofoam snow, or popcorn snow, whatever the experts call it,lol.
They must be real good trolls. You can't shut up about them. :D
Many things on this board evoke a-hole behavior. But it's OUR a-hole behavior. So at least we have that.
Oh you big meanie. Stop hyping things. I saw that snow you saw and it was only one quarter flurry that melted even before it hit the ground. Waaaaaa. Waaaaaa. [roll]
NWS in Philly just put out an update at 5:55 pm, below. Still think the Turnpike may be the dividing line between minimal snow and some snow with <1" likely a bit west of the Turnpike and 1-2" likely along and just east of the Turnpike and 3" or more possible 15-25 miles east of the TPK. Still thinking we get 2" at my house on the colder surfaces. We'll see I guess. Would be amazed, though, if any snow is left after tomorrow afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FASTER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN SOME SLEET EARLIER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW JERSEY ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO START THEN
MORE OF A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE
SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING BETTER. A NEW SNOW MAP HAS ALSO
BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB. TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN SOME BLENDING
IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS DONE.
THE HRRR RAMPS THINGS UP BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z WITH THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. WE DO NOTE THAT THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
MUCH LOWER ATTM THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES. AS AN EXAMPLE
AT 21Z, THE DEW POINT AT MOUNT POCONO WAS 3F WHILE AT GEORGETOWN
IT WAS 38F.
WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES
DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHC OF OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS, WITH
THESE AREAS HAVING THE GREATEST CHC OF OBTAINING THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED
SURFACES, HOWEVER SOME BANDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AND
THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS CAN OCCUR. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FASTER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN SOME SLEET EARLIER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW JERSEY ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO START THEN
MORE OF A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE
SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING BETTER. A NEW SNOW MAP HAS ALSO
BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB. TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN SOME BLENDING
IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS DONE.
THE HRRR RAMPS THINGS UP BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z WITH THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. WE DO NOTE THAT THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
MUCH LOWER ATTM THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES. AS AN EXAMPLE
AT 21Z, THE DEW POINT AT MOUNT POCONO WAS 3F WHILE AT GEORGETOWN
IT WAS 38F.
WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES
DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHC OF OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS, WITH
THESE AREAS HAVING THE GREATEST CHC OF OBTAINING THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED
SURFACES, HOWEVER SOME BANDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AND
THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS CAN OCCUR. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
The NWS also has snow maps that tell you the % chance over a certain amount of snow. This one is % chance over 4":
Just a function of temps and precip - more precip towards the coast, but right at the coast temps will be slightly warmer from the marine inflluence, so a bit more rain than inland 10 miles - hence that band of heavier snow. The outcome will unlikely be exactly that, but it's portrayed like that to convey the forces at work in the storm.
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