OT: Snowstorm Friday
- Thread starter mikemarc1
- Start date
I dont know how we could deal with more snow on top of the 1 inch we got yesterday that closed all the schools.
They were disappointed they didn't get 8-12 so they high tailed it to Cape May.
Posted a bit about this in yesterday's storm thread, but with models coming into better agreement on a fairly classic coastal winter storm impacting our area late Thursday night through Friday morning, figured it was time for a thread on this. While all of the models are showing at least some snow (and possibly rain) for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, we're still almost 3 days out, so uncertainty is high as it usually is for winter storms this far out.
Depending on how much precip this storm is able to produce (models vary on this), even with a perfect all snow track, which is not a given, this storm could produce anywhere from 2-4" to 4-8" with a high end potential of maybe up to 10" of snow, although that much snow is much more likely towards New England, as the storm looks like it will strengthen more there. However, if the track is more inland, it could be one of those snow to rain scenarios for the 95 corridor/coast with maybe only a few inches before the changeover, but heavier snows inland or if the track is more suppressed, it could be just a few inches of snow for most, especially towards the coast. Plenty of time to iron those details out.
It is worth noting that the NWS, which had a decidedly mixed performance on yesterday's storm (busted for the 95 corridor and everywhere along/north of 195, but did pretty well for most of DE/SNJ), has already put out snowfall maps for only the first half of the storm, i.e, through 7 am Friday, featuring a general 2-4" of snow for most. Good NWS discussion, as well as maps and links below. Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2073-1722-east-coast-winter-weather-event/page/2/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
537 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main focus is on the Thursday night into Friday time period. A
potent but fast moving low pressure system should develop in the
southeastern U.S. and progress off the coast around NC/VA. With this
track, our region is in the favored location for mostly snow (though
depending on how close the center of the low stays to our coast,
there may be a brief period of rain or sleet at the start of
precipitation. Models came into better agreement with the track of
this low (as compared to yesterday when some models were still
showing a weak/surpressed system), however there remain some timing
differences. Most guidance seems to be in agreement that this will
be a quick impact (no more than 12 hours of precip), but there is
question if it will be from late Thursday night through mid day
Friday, or be primarily during the day Friday. The storm system is
not yet fully within the period for our snow amount forecast, so we
will have more details on that later today.
Depending on how much precip this storm is able to produce (models vary on this), even with a perfect all snow track, which is not a given, this storm could produce anywhere from 2-4" to 4-8" with a high end potential of maybe up to 10" of snow, although that much snow is much more likely towards New England, as the storm looks like it will strengthen more there. However, if the track is more inland, it could be one of those snow to rain scenarios for the 95 corridor/coast with maybe only a few inches before the changeover, but heavier snows inland or if the track is more suppressed, it could be just a few inches of snow for most, especially towards the coast. Plenty of time to iron those details out.
It is worth noting that the NWS, which had a decidedly mixed performance on yesterday's storm (busted for the 95 corridor and everywhere along/north of 195, but did pretty well for most of DE/SNJ), has already put out snowfall maps for only the first half of the storm, i.e, through 7 am Friday, featuring a general 2-4" of snow for most. Good NWS discussion, as well as maps and links below. Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2073-1722-east-coast-winter-weather-event/page/2/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
537 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main focus is on the Thursday night into Friday time period. A
potent but fast moving low pressure system should develop in the
southeastern U.S. and progress off the coast around NC/VA. With this
track, our region is in the favored location for mostly snow (though
depending on how close the center of the low stays to our coast,
there may be a brief period of rain or sleet at the start of
precipitation. Models came into better agreement with the track of
this low (as compared to yesterday when some models were still
showing a weak/surpressed system), however there remain some timing
differences. Most guidance seems to be in agreement that this will
be a quick impact (no more than 12 hours of precip), but there is
question if it will be from late Thursday night through mid day
Friday, or be primarily during the day Friday. The storm system is
not yet fully within the period for our snow amount forecast, so we
will have more details on that later today.
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nice post. Concise summary/pov with just the right amount of detail. Plus the maps. Love the maps lol.Posted a bit about this in yesterday's storm thread, but with models coming into better agreement on a fairly classic coastal winter storm impacting our area late Thursday night through Friday morning, figured it was time for a thread on this. While all of the models are showing at least some snow (and possibly rain) for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, we're still almost 3 days out, so uncertainty is high as it usually is for winter storms this far out.
Depending on how much precip this storm is able to produce (models vary on this), even with a perfect all snow track, which is not a given, this storm could produce anywhere from 2-4" to 4-8" with a high end potential of maybe up to 10" of snow. However, if the track is more inland, it could be one of those snow to rain scenarios for the 95 corridor/coast with maybe only a few inches before the changeover, but heavier snows inland or if the track is more suppressed, it could be just a few inches of snow for most, especially towards the coast. Plenty of time to iron those details out.
It is worth noting that the NWS, which had a decidedly mixed performance on yesterday's storm (busted for the 95 corridor and everywhere along/north of 195, but did pretty well for most of DE/SNJ), has already put out snowfall maps for the first half of the storm, i.e, through 7 am Friday, featuring a general 2-4" of snow for most. Good NWS discussion, as well as maps and links below. Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2073-1722-east-coast-winter-weather-event/page/2/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
537 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main focus is on the Thursday night into Friday time period. A
potent but fast moving low pressure system should develop in the
southeastern U.S. and progress off the coast around NC/VA. With this
track, our region is in the favored location for mostly snow (though
depending on how close the center of the low stays to our coast,
there may be a brief period of rain or sleet at the start of
precipitation. Models came into better agreement with the track of
this low (as compared to yesterday when some models were still
showing a weak/surpressed system), however there remain some timing
differences. Most guidance seems to be in agreement that this will
be a quick impact (no more than 12 hours of precip), but there is
question if it will be from late Thursday night through mid day
Friday, or be primarily during the day Friday. The storm system is
not yet fully within the period for our snow amount forecast, so we
will have more details on that later today.
Maybe people will surprise you and we'll have a civil informative thread, lol.
amazing for NWS to come out with a snowmap 72 hours before a storm but because of Ida this is our new world
I really hope it works out that way. It's become extremely lame to see the childish squabbling polluting all the weather threads.
They've been doing 72 hour maps for at least a few years - nothing to do with Ida.
Guess they're joining in with all media everywhere in trying to engage in a bit of hyperbole to bump up viewership.
When it comes to the weather, I don't really pay much attention until the day before anyway. So NWS could forecast stuff a month in advance and it wouldn't matter to me.
OTOH, my generator is currently sitting outside my garage leaking gas from somewhere. So I suppose long term warning of a potential power-outage inducing weather event should motivate me to contact an electrician and get the whole house natural gas fueled generator I've been planning to install, uh, installed.
The granularity of the map is somewhat ridiculous, PHI basically takes an average of the current model runs to create this map.
Personally I'm much more in favor of a a generalized 3 tier map without totals outside of 72 hours (Most Impactful, Impactful, Least Impactful, No impact). Much easier to digest, gets the point across, and limits the bust potential rather than pumping out hypothetical totals down to the tenth of an inch. Then inside of 72 hours you hone in on exact total ranges.
The NWS map is inside 72 hours. I do agree that posting exact amounts to the decimal place is ridiculous this far out and probably even right before the event, as the predictions aren't that precise - I'd go with just the shadings for ranges, like 1-2", 2-3" and so on, which are on the map.
recommend you take advantage of the decent weather and get that leak fixed cause you're not gonna get any whole home system installed anytime soon. My understanding is current wait is about 6 months due to backorders on the generators.
ps. mine is leaking too from the bottom of the carb bowl. My guess is a stuck float. funny thing is I can take off the air filter and get it started and it runs at exactly the same rate of the leak..the gas leak is consumed so it only leaks when off lol.
It's a portable generator and has been sitting outside, uncovered, for a couple months. So probably there's no fixing it after that much exposure to the elements.
Which I suppose means it's going snow like crazy all winter, with repeated long term power outages. And it'll be all my fault. Sorry folks.
Edit: I emailed my electrical/HVAC guy about it earlier. See what he says. But if I have to, I'll just massively overspec the unit the way I did when I bought a massive 7 foot chest freezer back in 2020 when all the normal sized ones were backordered for 6-12 months or more. The power draw in my house is pretty high anyway, so I'm guessing I'll be spending at least $6000 for the generator unit itself. Those might still have some in stock, I hope.
Edit: Checked and there are some that are about right-sized (i.e. in the $6K range) available still. And actually, the stuff in the $10K - 20K range is all seemingly back ordered for months, along with the less expensive stuff. Go figure.
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I developed an obsession with my portable generator after Sandy. Of course I left mine outside also for many months and possibly years but I was determined. Through the miracle of youtube I learned how to take it apart and parts are easily replaceable. First the troubleshooting and ended up successfully changing the ignition coil. A couple years later I abused it again and developed rust in the gas tank so wash it out with vinegar,changed the carb, and changed the fuel filter and it runs beautifully again. All Chinese parts. All replaceable. It's a Honda engine and can obviously take a beating.
I developed an obsession with my portable generator after Sandy. Of course I left mine outside also for many months and possibly years but I was determined. Through the miracle of youtube I learned how to take it apart and parts are easily replaceable. First the troubleshooting and ended up successfully changing the ignition coil. A couple years later I abused it again and developed rust in the gas tank so wash it out with vinegar,changed the carb, and changed the fuel filter and it runs beautifully again. All Chinese parts. All replaceable. It's a Honda engine and can obviously take a beating.
I suppose I can always take it to the shop and see what they say. Can't hurt and buys me time.
You are a bright guy. If you wanted to you could fix it in no time I'm sure and it's probably a very easy fix. It's just probably not high on your list of things to do.
I could probably fix it, but yeah, too much other stuff I've procrastinated about that is higher priority. Plus I'm very lazy.
Speaking of procrastination, one of my furnaces stopped working last week. It had started whining and then grinding last winter. Inducer blower motor was going bad.
The HVAC company I was using wanted to charge me $1000 to repair it. After a few minutes of research on the part and labor, I questioned them about the price which seemed extreme. They never returned my email.
So I just lived with it the remainder of last winter and up until it broke last week.
So last week, once the furnace refused to fire up, I got the OEM part ($200 w/tax) the next day and did the replacement job myself. Took me 35 minutes or so, but I was going super slowly since it was the first time I'd ever looked inside a furnace and I didn't want to screw anything up. If I ever have to do it again it will take me 10 minutes tops.
And they wanted to charge me $1000 for a $200 OEM part that would take them 10 minutes to replace. I've been paying them $1200 per year for 15 years for a service contract, too. Fvckers.
I normally don't pay much attention to the cost of stuff, but I don't want to get ripped off either, and that definitely qualifies as ripping off one's loyal customer big time. Which is really dumb since I'm going to want to replace both units, plus the A/C units, soon. And it sure won't be them I hire to do that work.
Guess I just ranted a little. Sorry. 😃
I was gonna say that too, but figured I'd leave it for someone else to have fun with. See how I sacrifice for you guys? 😃Now, now, now, let's not jump to conclusions.
Sacrifice? That's no sacrifice. Now if you were to give up hookers and blow...
I have a pretty good hybrid carrier system. Thankfully it was under total coverage for 10 years as that inducer motor went twice. I didn't have to pay a dime but it went off protection in Sept.
I researched mine and the oem price is $900 for the part. And I watched the guy replace it both times so it was at least 90 mins so a $250 labor bill would be appropriate.
Glad yours was that easy.
Speaking of easy. First thing I'd do with that gen. Is just change out the whole carb. They're so cheap after market and not worth trying to fix. Good luck.
Thanks, just cranked up the snowblower for some preventative mojo to invoke rain along the coast!Posted a bit about this in yesterday's storm thread, but with models coming into better agreement on a fairly classic coastal winter storm impacting our area late Thursday night through Friday morning, figured it was time for a thread on this. While all of the models are showing at least some snow (and possibly rain) for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, we're still almost 3 days out, so uncertainty is high as it usually is for winter storms this far out.
Depending on how much precip this storm is able to produce (models vary on this), even with a perfect all snow track, which is not a given, this storm could produce anywhere from 2-4" to 4-8" with a high end potential of maybe up to 10" of snow, although that much snow is much more likely towards New England, as the storm looks like it will strengthen more there. However, if the track is more inland, it could be one of those snow to rain scenarios for the 95 corridor/coast with maybe only a few inches before the changeover, but heavier snows inland or if the track is more suppressed, it could be just a few inches of snow for most, especially towards the coast. Plenty of time to iron those details out.
It is worth noting that the NWS, which had a decidedly mixed performance on yesterday's storm (busted for the 95 corridor and everywhere along/north of 195, but did pretty well for most of DE/SNJ), has already put out snowfall maps for only the first half of the storm, i.e, through 7 am Friday, featuring a general 2-4" of snow for most. Good NWS discussion, as well as maps and links below. Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2073-1722-east-coast-winter-weather-event/page/2/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
537 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main focus is on the Thursday night into Friday time period. A
potent but fast moving low pressure system should develop in the
southeastern U.S. and progress off the coast around NC/VA. With this
track, our region is in the favored location for mostly snow (though
depending on how close the center of the low stays to our coast,
there may be a brief period of rain or sleet at the start of
precipitation. Models came into better agreement with the track of
this low (as compared to yesterday when some models were still
showing a weak/surpressed system), however there remain some timing
differences. Most guidance seems to be in agreement that this will
be a quick impact (no more than 12 hours of precip), but there is
question if it will be from late Thursday night through mid day
Friday, or be primarily during the day Friday. The storm system is
not yet fully within the period for our snow amount forecast, so we
will have more details on that later today.
Depends on why you’re going away.
If going away for work, or to the hospital for surgery, then sure, it would be the polite thing to do.
If going to Hawaii on a golf outing, or to serve a prison stint, the polite thing to do would be to hire the studly young neighbor lad to come by and take care of the snowblower, the generator, and you know, everything, in your absence.
The devil’s in the details. 😀
I hate snow with a passion, unlike my friend numbers I’m hoping for nothing but a bust
A
