OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Interesting article on chip shortage.
www.bloombergquint.com
Chip Shortage Forces Carmakers to Leave Out Some High-End Features
The chip shortage crisis is getting worse but car makers are getting creative to keep at least some production moving forward.
and Ford having problems with the Mach-e. Shocker.
The Colonial Pipeline cyber-attack is a conspiracy theorists dream. How is it that the largest pipeline carrying fuel from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast gets hacked the day before Musk’s SNL appearance, jacking up fuel prices right when EVs are on full display between the Musk/Tesla SNL publicity and all of the EV manufacturer commercials that ran over the weekend. You can’t make this stuff up.
Well with a sufficient payday the Putin KGB/Russian Mob (actually the same thing) can make a lot of things happen.
Sorry CW but ARKK continues to slide = now down about 35% from its February high. This is exactly why you don’t listen to stock cheerleaders on a football message board. Stick to fundamentals. Buy low when stocks are on sale. Sell high and take profits when appropriate. At some point ARKK will be low enough to trigger a buy signal. I’m just not sure when that might be based on some of its core holdings. I think TDOC and ZOOM could cripple ARKK (which account for about 10% of the portfolio). Everyone is racing into the tele-health space so TDOC will struggle to keep up with competition (unless it’s acquired) and ZOOM needs product diversity or MSFT and others will crush it.
You want to cherry pick reg. credits and btc sales. Why don't you mention the $200 million for retooling S and X? Or Elon's stock based compensation? Record R & D expenses? Don't just pick the cherries that fit your narrative.
Here’s where you and I can’t get on the same page. I believe Tesla is a great company. I’m not a fan of the cars but fully recognize that they are a revolutionary product and changed the auto industry forever. And, generally speaking, I think Musk is a genius. All I’m saying (and have been saying) is that Tesla is not a good investment (IMO) at these levels. If Tesla was trading at $250 (wishful thinking) I’d be a serious buyer. Think about all of the noise on this board when the stock was around $900 and then consider the last quarter. There is/was a massive disconnect between hope and reality.
And while I’m
While I think it takes courage to discuss something like Aspergers publicly, doing it on SNL was poor judgment. As the article indicated, it was Musk’s attempt to seem relatable. If I was the second richest man in the world and wanted to bring awareness to Aspergers, I’d do it along with a massive donation to organizations supporting people with disabilities. Musk should be building LifeTowns (see Friendship Circle in Livingston NJ) all across the country. Lifetown is an amazing place that gives kids with special needs (including Aspergers) real-world experiences in a caring environment. I’m sure they would welcome a partnership with Musk. Forget SNL - use your billions to help people with special needs!
i guess the harassment the three little bears had to incur was unwarranted. ARKK down 35% during a time that the Dow and S&P are making all time highs. Another very solid day for my portfolio of companies that consistently generate solid earnings.
The ARKK redemptions have to be through the roof. I realize some were in the fund last year and have some unrealized gains, but huge amounts came in late and they are all down….. and some down big….. all in a strong market. Has to be painful…. Now down 5% today.
LB 3
Amazing time to buy and hold. Stick with the plan and don't miss out like you did in March/April 2020.
So I guess you don't own the top earning companies? AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, FB, and GOOGL. LOL! The Three Little Bears always come out on down tech days. Funny, not much posting on positive days. Hmm.
Thanks for the laugh.
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Just brought some NFLX at $495 to support Cathie Wood. She brought at $513 on April 22. I really wasn’t looking to buy this NFLX but the chart show it bottom at 495 or next step down $480, beaten down. The other Techs aren’t down far enough for me to buy.
APPL, FB, GOOGL are three of my top holdings and make up a large percentage of my brokerage account. I’ve held them for years. They are proven companies that print money. On the other hand, the companies you were pushing, like Tesla at $900, crushed anyone on this board that was foolish enough to listen.
NFLX is one company that I haven't been able to get excited about. It's still way overvalued. Sure, I own a fair amount via funds/etfs, but not something I would buy directly. If you paid attention to the GOOGL earnings report, YouTube literally made about the same money as NFLX:
Netflix Whiffs Versus Q1 Subscriber Guidance; Weak Q2 Guidance Implies Competition Gaining Share
Analyst Note | by Neil Macker Updated Apr 21, 2021
Netflix started 2021 with weak first quarter subscriber growth, below our estimate and the relatively conservative guidance issued in January. The subscriber pull forward in the first half of 2020 and the global increase in competition appear to have stunted net additions. Second quarter subscriber guidance is also very weak: 1 million net adds would be one of the lowest quarters ever for Netflix. We continue to think that the expansion of Disney+, HBO Max, and other services will increase churn and pressure gross adds for Netflix over the near future. We maintain our narrow moat and fair value estimate of $250.
Netflix posted 4.0 million net adds during the quarter, with 0.5 million in the U.S. and Canada, or UCAN, versus guidance of 6.0 million. The company no longer provides guidance for both domestic and international net adds. Netflix’s streaming base continues to expand, ending the quarter at 209 million global paid subscribers, up 14% from 183 million a year ago. First quarter net adds were driven by Europe, Middle East and Africa, or EMEA, which added 1.8 million, and the Asia-Pacific (1.4 million).
Revenue of $7.2 billion was up 24% versus a year ago, with three of the four regions seeing significant increases in revenue per customer. UCAN revenue improved 17% year over year as the firm benefited from the price hike in 2020 and a larger subscriber base. ARPU was up 9% versus a year ago to $14.25, implying that the majority of the customer base is on the standard HD plan at $14 with a growing share on the 4K plan at $18. As we have previously noted, Netflix has only one source of revenue (streaming subscriptions) with two levers to increase revenue: subscribers and price. Given the high penetration in the U.S., increased competition, and high customer awareness, gaining marginal subscribers is getting tougher. Price increases may be the only real lever left to grow U.S. revenue and we expect that further increases may cause churn to spike up sharply.
I have owned Appl for 10 years (do the math on how that has worked out), MSFT and FB (both doing very well since my recent purchases in late January and March, respectfully). Not AMZN, GOOGL, ZOOM or NFLX. I also own several other tech stocks (PYPL for 3 years and off and on with QCOM, INTC and CSCO) in my portfolio of 45 stocks. Just because I don’t like the high valuation companies like Tesla and many others owned by the great one, doesn’t mean I don’t invest in tech - just not spec tech. I have a very balanced portfolio that did very well last year, and great this year compared to the overall market.
Normally when they miss, they do better next quarter. IN addition, this is close to the low since July 2020. Sometimes, charts override numbers. Come on, even Cathie must use the charts. I don’t normally buy this stock. The PE is now 60 as well as AMZN. Wait 2 quarters and PE 40-45.
Oh, NFLX down 16.5% from the high and when it gets to $477 when I buy more the stock will be down 20%. I always feel comfortable buying quality stock 20% down. I’ll make sure I sell before earnings because it is a dangerous stock.
NFLX intrinsic value is $250.
"Trying to catch the bottom on a falling stock is like trying to catch a falling knife." - Peter Lynch
Come on, I looked it up and it hasn’t been at 250 since Dec 2018. Don’t be a bear.
I have no problem with your opinion that Tesla is overvalued. I disagree. Fine.
My problem with you comes from your false or dubious accusations.
Send me a PM and I will cut and paste the entire Morningstar analysis for you. It's very detailed. As for the other big techs:
FB FMV = $390
GOOG/L FMV = $2925
AMZN FMV = $4200
MSFT FMV = $278
AAPL FMV = $115
Those are mainly the ones I trade but I also use charts to see trends and high and lows.
Of course they count, but just as BTC and reg. credits can be considered short term positives, no S &X sales, the cost to retool the production lines, the cost of building 2 factories w/ battery lines, and Elon's compensation can be considered short term negatives. The bears like to hammer one, but never mention the other.
I believe that qualifies as TA (technical analysis) trading. FMV/intrinsic value investing is more about buying and holding.
I don’t believe I’ve ever made a false or dubious accusation. There are two sides to every argument.
My main issue with Netflix is I believe there is enough competition now that Netflix is no longer the only game in town. And, while this clearly not part of my investing analysis, I can’t find a single new show to watch on Netflix at the moment. All of the new releases are garbage content filler. Poor production quality too.
I agree and that’s why I say it’s a dangerous stock however I believe it will go up at least 10% from now because it only missed one quarter and people will forgive that. Miss 2 quarters and it falls to 420 or further or due to a market crash.
Back in the 70's they bribed the mayor of Woodbridge when they were running the pipeline to Port Reading
I’ll stipulate that the value of TSLA is nearly all in the terminal value today. Actions in 2021, and quarterly earnings results, are far less important than progress on operational items to deliver at least 8 million vehicles per annum with recurring software payments from at least half of TSLA owners of $200 per month in the next 5-10 years. That’s the game. The rest is kind of noise. Kind of.
All that said, I do differentiate between temporary positive items unrelated to the core business. Bitcoin purchases and sales have nothing to do with making cars and software for cars. That’s an “other” item and not part of quality earnings. Tax credits are closer to the core business, and rely on continued government action. The negative items, such as retooling and the cost of new facilities (which I would have assumed were capital costs and not expenses) and stock based comp are real expenses that may not repeat every quarter but will occur with some regularity. I note how the company added back the stock comp to adjusted EBITDA. I’d consider that adjustment if I were a bond holder but not a stock holder
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What did I say that was full of crap? My investments don’t even closely resemble what is in AARK. I’ll cut you some slack since you have been a bit sensitive since buying ARKK at a very high price before doubling and tripling down.
Speaking of full of crap: What happened to all your Cathie posts that you flooded the forum with? All during a time that you bought high, then averaged it down to $120 a share (per your post from a few months ago) and then averaged down to $114 (based on your post from last week). When you said your cost basis was $114, ARKK hadn’t dipped below $110, so simple math would indicate that you had to significantly ramp up purchases......... only to see it drop another 5% today. Lesson of the day..... “it’s hard to catch a falling knife”
You have a nice portfolio of funds that have done well for years and you hit big with ETH, but I’m not sure why you get so angry when people post about ARKK. A fund that many claimed was over valued months ago, but called little bears when they did.
I think you identified the source of his anger in your own post. LOL.
But the ARK cult doesn't need to worry, Cathie loves this setup.
Look at the bolded sentence in my reply. Read it, think, and then post. Full of crap! LOL.
Silly math LB3. I am positive with ARKK in 2021 (not including today, didn't do the math yet, it will be close). Think about it, try some math, and see if you can come up with the answer. :)
