OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

JPM and GS crush earnings:

Goldman's earnings blow past estimates as investment banking revenue boosted by strong IPO market

Investment banking posted its second-highest revenue quarter ever with $3.61 billion, behind the first quarter of 2021.

www.cnbc.com

JPMorgan tops estimates after posting $2.3 billion boost from better-than-expected loan losses

The bank said the improving U.S. economic outlook drove its decision to release money set aside for loan losses.

www.cnbc.com

 

[jtung230]

Having fun can still mean being a moron. As all guys personally know! LOL.

Just covered at $40. This moron just made 35% in a month. Hope to have another chance to re-established positions in the high 50s or low 60s again.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Just covered at $40. This moron just made 35% in a month. Hope to have another chance to re-established positions in the high 50s or low 60s again.

If you bought and sold after the pump you would have made a lot more. Enjoy your crumbs. :)

 

[jtung230]

If you bought and sold after the pump you would have made a lot more. Enjoy your crumbs. :)

Or I buy right after the run up and now lose 40%. Give me the crumbs.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Or I buy right after the run up and now lose 40%. Give me the crumbs.

Scaredy cat.

 

[jtung230]

Scaredy cat.

FOLM > FOMO

 

[RU-05]

June inflation data tomorrow. The expectation game begins!

Inflation expectations surge, hitting new high for New York Fed survey

The June Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that median inflation expectations over the next 12 months jumped to 4.8%.

www.cnbc.com

Came in hot.

U.S. stocks finish lower Tuesday after hot CPI data, big banks kick off earnings season

Stocks decline a day after major benchmarks clinched another round of records, as investors sift through hotter-than-expected inflation data and parse...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Came in hot.

U.S. stocks finish lower Tuesday after hot CPI data, big banks kick off earnings season

Stocks decline a day after major benchmarks clinched another round of records, as investors sift through hotter-than-expected inflation data and parse...

www.marketwatch.com

Definitely hot, but with clear signs that transitory market segments are leading the way (like used cars and trucks). Not too much of a negative reaction, but we will see what happens tomorrow.

 

[RU-05]

Definitely hot, but with clear signs that transitory market segments are leading the way (like used cars and trucks). Not too much of a negative reaction, but we will see what happens tomorrow.

Slightly green in premarket.

 

[RU-05]

JPM and GS crush earnings:

Goldman's earnings blow past estimates as investment banking revenue boosted by strong IPO market

Investment banking posted its second-highest revenue quarter ever with $3.61 billion, behind the first quarter of 2021.

www.cnbc.com

JPMorgan tops estimates after posting $2.3 billion boost from better-than-expected loan losses

The bank said the improving U.S. economic outlook drove its decision to release money set aside for loan losses.

www.cnbc.com

As do WFC and Citi.

 

[RUJohnny99]

Any of you health care guys have an opinion on Organon? (OGN). It spun off from Merck a few months ago. I'm trying to decide whether to increase it to 1-2% of my portfolio or cut it and can't really find anyone else's research on it.

 

[RU-05]

Any of you health care guys have an opinion on Organon? (OGN). It spun off from Merck a few months ago. I'm trying to decide whether to increase it to 1-2% of my portfolio or cut it and can't really find anyone else's research on it.

I'm not a health care guy but, MS has a $33 price target.

"Initiating OGN at EW with $33 PT. Spun out of Merck, Organon is the #2 company in global Women's Health and leader in Established Brands and Biosimilars. We see opportunities for Organon's strong management team to drive improving growth prospects, but execution is key given competitive markets."

Argus with a PT of $34.

 

[RU-05]

ARK cuts their china tech stock weighting.

 

[T2Kplus20]

ARK cuts their china tech stock weighting.

Sound decision.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Any of you health care guys have an opinion on Organon? (OGN). It spun off from Merck a few months ago. I'm trying to decide whether to increase it to 1-2% of my portfolio or cut it and can't really find anyone else's research on it.

OGN is in a good space, but not a high growth space (in terms of pharma). Individual companies are so unpredictable due to clinical trials and FDA decisions. I love pharma/biotech, but for me, the play is a fund/etf. The only HC stock I own is the s-ton of my own company's via their LTI/RSU comp program.

 

[RUJohnny99]

OGN is in a good space, but not a high growth space (in terms of pharma). Individual companies are so unpredictable due to clinical trials and FDA decisions. I love pharma/biotech, but for me, the play is a fund/etf. The only HC stock I own is the s-ton of my own company's via their LTI/RSU comp program.

I'm the complete opposite. Pharma stocks are the ultimate "buy it and forget about it" for me. I bought the Merck shares after the Vioxx issue about 15 years ago and reinvested every dividend. My cost basis is about $18.50 and it pays a 14% yield on that original cost basis. Once I'm done working I'll just start spending the dividends instead of reinvesting them.

 

[mdk01]

OGN hasn't declared a dividend yet. Until you know what they will be paying as a non-high grower you're essentially guessing with a lot less than 100% information.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I'm the complete opposite. Pharma stocks are the ultimate "buy it and forget about it" for me. I bought the Merck shares after the Vioxx issue about 15 years ago and reinvested every dividend. My cost basis is about $18.50 and it pays a 14% yield on that original cost basis. Once I'm done working I'll just start spending the dividends instead of reinvesting them.

My PRHSX has returned 19.32% per year over the past 10 years and 16.83% over the past 15 years. Now that is set it and forget it! :)

I've been in the fund since late 2005 and since then it is up 980%. Can't complain! Great industry.

 

[RUJohnny99]

OGN hasn't declared a dividend yet. Until you know what they will be paying as a non-high grower you're essentially guessing with a lot less than 100% information.

yeah, i really should dig into their cashflows and business, but I was kinda hoping someone here already did all that work for me. LOL

 

[mdk01]

yeah, i really should dig into their cashflows and business, but I was kinda hoping someone here already did all that work for me. LOL

Don't bother with that. Just give it some time for the short interest to build up and then buy like crazy and stick it to the man.

 

[RUAldo]

IDK if the crypto thread is still active, but this CNBC article pretty much sums it up. Great quote: “The cryptocurrency industry leverages a network of shady business connections, bought influencers and pay-for-play media outlets to perpetuate a cult-like “get rich quick” funnel designed to extract new money from the financially desperate and naive.” Where is T when we need him for a Guy the Crypto Guy video. Nah,

The co-creator of dogecoin explains why he doesn't plan to return to crypto: It's 'controlled by a powerful cartel of wealthy figures'

Jackson Palmer, the co-creator of meme-inspired dogecoin, made a rare return to Twitter with some harsh words about the "cryptocurrency industry."

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

yeah, i really should dig into their cashflows and business, but I was kinda hoping someone here already did all that work for me. LOL

This may be difficult, since it's a new business entity.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Party on!

Powell says the Fed is still a ways off from altering policy, expects inflation to moderate

Powell said Wednesday that the economy needs to improve more before the central bank will change its ultra-easy monetary policy.

www.cnbc.com

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the economy is “a ways off” from where it needs to be for the central bank to change policy.

“Conditions in the labor market have continued to improve, but there is still a long way to go,” he said, adding that inflation has “increased notably” due mostly to temporary factors.

 

[RU-05]

Party on!

Powell says the Fed is still a ways off from altering policy, expects inflation to moderate

Powell said Wednesday that the economy needs to improve more before the central bank will change its ultra-easy monetary policy.

www.cnbc.com

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the economy is “a ways off” from where it needs to be for the central bank to change policy.

“Conditions in the labor market have continued to improve, but there is still a long way to go,” he said, adding that inflation has “increased notably” due mostly to temporary factors.

The market is really not in party mode any more though. More like just a bunch of people hanging out.

I think the market is probably a little wary of inflation being a more consistent threat then Powell is letting on.

Yet the 10yr is down a bit again this morning. So I don't know what that is trying to say. But the inflation narrative is definitely getting louder.

 

[RU-05]

For those of you who believe Growth vs Value is a false dichotomy, I present to you AMD vs INTC.

Since 2016, INTC is up 60%. AMD is up 1600%.

YOY AMD is up 60%. INTC is down a couple percent.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The market is really not in party mode any more though. More like just a bunch of people hanging out.

I think the market is probably a little wary of inflation being a more consistent threat then Powell is letting on.

Yet the 10yr is down a bit again this morning. So I don't know what that is trying to say. But the inflation narrative is definitely getting louder.

The market is definitely confused. It has been meandering for the past few weeks. Earnings have been amazing, which normally wins the day.

 

[RU-05]

Haven't checked in awhile but Lumber is down to $520. Which is 65ish% off it's highs. Lowest levels since last Nov.

Precovid lumber was at $460.

So near normal.

Not sure how long this takes to work it's way to the retail end of it all(still hearing about $80 plywood).

 

[RU-05]

The market is definitely confused. It has been meandering for the past few weeks. Earnings have been amazing, which normally wins the day.

The market is still pretty expensive. But instead of an overall correction(we have seen sectors correct under the surface) it meanders while these big earnings grow into their multiples.

Eventually the market will look pretty reasonable, at which point a big earnings qtr will lead to a big market jump.

That's how I'm seeing it anyways.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Haven't checked in awhile but Lumber is down to $520. Which is 65ish% off it's highs. Lowest levels since last Nov.

Precovid lumber was at $460.

So near normal.

Not sure how long this takes to work it's way to the retail end of it all(still hearing about $80 plywood).

#transatory!
:)

 

[T2Kplus20]

The market is still pretty expensive. But instead of an overall correction(we have seen sectors correct under the surface) it meanders while these big earnings grow into their multiples.

Eventually the market will look pretty reasonable, at which point a big earnings qtr will lead to a big market jump.

That's how I'm seeing it anyways.

I'll sign up for meandering instead of correcting. Also, indexes have done very well as compared to sectors or types of stocks. There seems to a constant churn under the surface, but so far, the main indexes keep going up.

 

[mdk01]

Or I buy right after the run up and now lose 40%. Give me the crumbs.

Or you could have jumped into GME last Tuesday when it broke below 200 and only lost 20%.

 

[RU-05]

Cramer called a top in oil, something about a million more barrels in the permian, and that will outpace the demand.

Would be another welcome move to help cool inflation.

 

[jtung230]

Or you could have jumped into GME last Tuesday when it broke below 200 and only lost 20%.

I covered that too early at 190. Only made 25%.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Cramer called a top in oil, something about a million more barrels in the permian, and that will outpace the demand.

Would be another welcome move to help cool inflation.

Oil had been heading down for the past week or so. OPEC made a deal, so Cramer is probably right.

 

[RUJohnny99]

This may be difficult, since it's a new business entity.

They still have to follow securities laws

SEC filings | Organon

View Organon’s latest filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

www.organon.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

They still have to follow securities laws

SEC filings | Organon

View Organon’s latest filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

www.organon.com

But there is no track record for the new entity and it's business performance.

 

[mdk01]

But there is no track record for the new entity and it's business performance.

Yes there is.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yes there is.

Nope.

 

[RU Cheese]

Nope.

You're entirely wrong - go click on links johnny posted. Unbelievable

 

[T2Kplus20]

You're entirely wrong - go click on links johnny posted. Unbelievable

Nope. New company, new basket of products, new leadership team without support from the broader company, future biosims that are unproven. They try to make it look like they have a long track record, but that's completely BS.