So I hope
@RU-05 is correct
But, the ramifications in Afghanistan could potentially extend beyond economic worries over failing American leadership. Instability in any region affects the supply chain, and from a micro perspective, the Lithium reserves is probably best example. Afghanistan sits on $3T in perhaps the most sought-after mineral in world at the moment, and China swooping in to partner with Taliban already.
From a geopolitical perspective, we just created a terrorist country out of thin air armed with our munitions, tech, and IP. Maybe won’t affect economy over night, but any major terrorist attack will and this situation now not going away lightly.
With Commander-in-Chief not communicating with any world leaders during the first 36 hours, it sowed distrust in international community, which many leaders have now vocalized. Perhaps it spills over into trade agreements or softened relations. But above all, it shows a more flighty/weakened American position, which potentially could lead to other conflicts in the world, such as China-Taiwan. That happens and we’d likely see a dive like none other.
With anywhere between 1000-5000 Americans stuck in a country under terrorist rule, we’re entering a hostage crisis like none other in history. And we’ll be at the whims of their demands. Imagine how a hanging of kidnapped American citizens will reverberate on international stage, and through the market.
o
And of course, not forgetting the displacement of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of refugees. A new massive budget item out of nowhere for an economy already grappling with massive inflation.
Hard to imagine a worse withdrawal, and its economic impact may just grow with time rather than a flash crash.
Obviously the glowing Dow records are directly influenced by inflation, and obscure what the ‘real’ numbers are.
I think to RU-05’s point, it may be a jenga stack. Each crisis one block on a wobbly economy. They all contribute, but not sure what will be the block that topples the stack. From
my humble perspective, this crisis just yanked a few blocks out at once