OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

+1
Moved more into growth funds/ETFs a few months ago and it has paid off. Those businesses are crushing it, not just speculative stock prices, but actual business results, which is why their near time future is still positive. There are winners and losers during corona. These are the winners.

Ya I look at tech which looks overvalued and then look at say financials which look undervalued(even though they too had strong quarters), and until we get that vaccine I'm leaning heavy towards tech. Just too much pushing down against financials right now, while covid is forcing this country to turn more towards technology oriented businesses.

Now maybe the timeline to pivot towards value is not that far extended out, maybe 3ish months away from the declaration of a successful vaccine, at which point many of these beaten down stocks will jump, and that will come at the expense, to some extent of tech, but even then, I'd rather put my pivot money into GLD and SLV in the meantime and actually make some money over those 3 months.

 

[RU-05]

Any thoughts on Rocket Mortgage IPO at $18?

Despite my post just above, I am a pretty full on tech so I'm not really looking at this one.

My questions would be how many public companies is it competing against? How are those companies doing? And how does Rocket compare?

 

[RU-05]

Stocks often drop on the news - can be a great time to buy a company you believe in.

I was looking to get out of EHTH at around $130 prior to the drop. It dropped below $70, so I did buy more. I'm not that big of a believer in the company per se, but I do believe $70 is just way too low.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Jobless claims come in better then expected. Extended hours went from -$150 to just about even.

It's all about expectations! :)

 

[T2Kplus10]

Ya I look at tech which looks overvalued and then look at say financials which look undervalued(even though they too had strong quarters), and until we get that vaccine I'm leaning heavy towards tech. Just too much pushing down against financials right now, while covid is forcing this country to turn more towards technology oriented businesses.

Now maybe the timeline to pivot towards value is not that far extended out, maybe 3ish months away from the declaration of a successful vaccine, at which point many of these beaten down stocks will jump, and that will come at the expense, to some extent of tech, but even then, I'd rather put my pivot money into GLD and SLV in the meantime and actually make some money over those 3 months.

Good post. Until "life" starts to return to normal, tech has been the dominant force of the retail/consumer world. Keep rolling with growth.

 

[RU-05]

Had this thought regarding the future economy which will be very technology driven, which will drive down demand for manpower.

So how do people earn a living when technology is doing their jobs for them? Own the technology. How do you own the technology? Tech stocks.

Which is not to say tech stocks are not currently overvalued, or there won't be a pivot or short term correction, but in the long run, I think that may be the solution.

 

[RU-05]

Tried threading the needle of TDOC last night, which opened yesterday at $250, and just missed out at buying in at $202. Jumped to $220(has since come back to $212).

Instead I bought in on FSLY at $90, which opened yesterday at $115.

 

[RU-05]

If anyone is looking for a tech value stock with a great name and fantastic fundamentals.

INTC.

I bought on the dip, hoping for a quick rebound, didn't get it I so I sold, but looking at their books, I think I'm getting back in. Looks like a unicorn.


Edit:I know I'm just talking to myself at this point, but seeing DDOG down 5% and CRWD down 4%, both companies which have been flying in recent months, combine that with recent big drops in tech companies I have mentioned like FSLY and EHTH and I wonder if we are seeing the initial stages of a cool down in tech.

But maybe there are other tech value stocks besides INTC? A pivot from the highflyers but still staying in tech? TXN looks pretty decent, not great, but certainly better multiples then AMD. I own AMD, it has been great thus I am a little hesitant to pivot off, but it's books look silly compared to INTC and even TXN. So maybe I pivot a little?

 

[RU-05]

I keep hearing talk and seeing other signs that hydrogen plays will be gaining more of a foothold moving fwd. Heard a guy in the energy industry yesterday who thought this, though he did see it a little more as a long term play.

As an extension of that thought, while Tesla is often said to be more of a tech stock then an auto stock, I think Nikola could be looked at as more of a Hydrogen play, then an EV auto play. Or at least it has a leg that is positioning itself as a hydrogen play, complete with solar fields which produce completely green hyrdogen fuel.

Now the hydrogen economy could explode into a massive fireball the first time a semi truck get's into an accident, but until such time I think hydrogen has room to move.

 

[RU-05]

SLV up another 5%.

Edit: Finished up 7.3% on the day. So weak.

 

[mdk01]

SLV up another 5%.

Guess those quarters I socked away when I was in middle school have turned out to be a good investment. Remembered and got them when we were cleaning out my Mom's house after she passed.

 

[RU-05]

Guess those quarters I socked away when I was in middle school have turned out to be a good investment. Remembered and got them when we were cleaning out my Mom's house after she passed.

My buddy used to order up the old Kennedy half dollars (I think from the post office) pick out the silver ones and then spend the rest.

I need to ask him about that.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

SLV is so hot it is nearly back to 2012 prices. Just another 80% or so to regain the all-time high.

Apologies for my cynicism. Folks may make some short term $$, but this is a T. U. R. D. Turd.

 

[T2Kplus10]

SLV is so hot it is nearly back to 2012 prices. Just another 80% or so to regain the all-time high.

Apologies for my cynicism. Folks may make some short term $$, but this is a T. U. R. D. Turd.

HA! HA! Great post. Not touching silver with a 10-foot poll.

 

[RU-05]

SLV is so hot it is nearly back to 2012 prices. Just another 80% or so to regain the all-time high.

Apologies for my cynicism. Folks may make some short term $$, but this is a T. U. R. D. Turd.

And what's your issue with short term $$$?

I'm up 44% in 3 weeks.

The history of silver? Good for a late night read maybe but present day silver is making me money.


Edit: I should probably take back my witty comeback above. Just checked the historical graph, and the all time high of SLV, set back in 2011, is about $48. It's currently under $27. I need to put more in.

 

[RU-05]

DDOG down 4.5% in regular hours, down another 14% in extended.

So the story appears to be this: If you have a tech stock that is up 200% over the last 3 months, sell before earnings.


Edit: Remains to be seen if you should jump back in immediately after.

Double Edit: Is this a situation where short interest would be an indicator?

 

[albanyknight]

The issue that a lot of people seem to be missing is gold and silver are not investments. They are insurance hedges that work against stocks and bonds and allow you to maintain your standard of wealth in a worst case scenario.

Which if you understand monetary policy means those 100% in stocks and bonds are getting a very large flashing red light that the music is about to stop. Does that mean that stock funds over a 20/30 year horizon will not perform well? Of course not. They may. They may not.

Nobody in this whole thread has talked about bond yields or money velocity. Both are in the toilet. At the end of the day, none of us know how this is going to play out. So, what to do? In my humble opinion, now is the time to get out of debt, have a healthy amount of cash on hand and use gold and silver as a hedge or in other words your insurance policy.

The price of silver today is irrelevant. It is the direction of silver that tells the true story.

 

[RU-05]

The issue that a lot of people seem to be missing is gold and silver are not investments. They are insurance hedges that work against stocks and bonds and allow you to maintain your standard of wealth in a worst case scenario.

Which if you understand monetary policy means those 100% in stocks and bonds are getting a very large flashing red light that the music is about to stop. Does that mean that stock funds over a 20/30 year horizon will not perform well? Of course not. They may. They may not.

Nobody in this whole thread has talked about bond yields or money velocity. Both are in the toilet. At the end of the day, none of us know how this is going to play out. So, what to do? In my humble opinion, now is the time to get out of debt, have a healthy amount of cash on hand and use gold and silver as a hedge or in other words your insurance policy.

The price of silver today is irrelevant. It is the direction of silver that tells the true story.

@T2Kplus10, if he has not mentioned outright, has certainly alluded to the lack of yields in other investment options.

And I'd also disagree with the idea that Silver is not an investment. I mean, I've put money into it with the expectation of getting more money out later. Now there is the hedge aspect, not only against the market, but also against inflation.

I've actually heard people say it is more of the latter then the former, and I agree with that in that I think precious metals could go up even in a rebounding economy if people are concerned about inflation.

 

[Frida's Boss]

@T2Kplus10, if he has not mentioned outright, has certainly alluded to the lack of yields in other investment options.

And I'd also disagree with the idea that Silver is not an investment. I mean, I've put money into it with the expectation of getting more money out later. Now there is the hedge aspect, not only against the market, but also against inflation.

I've actually heard people say it is more of the latter then the former, and I agree with that in that I think precious metals could go up even in a rebounding economy if people are concerned about inflation.

Silver has some industrial use, but is more a speculation than an investment. Gold is pure speculation, albeit with a potential benefit as insurance against monetary debasement. If you are unable to objectively value a security or asset, then it cannot be an investment.

 

[RULegion]

Over the long term fastly Twilio ddog DocuSign I think are all winners even at this starting point where they are plus 200% this year. Short term correction is due but last few times they dropped a bit a week or two later they saw all time highs again.
I like Dexcom now even after an incredible run and podd ...my daugther has type 1 and I have done my research a lot of exciting things coming in the next few years. Lots of growth.

 

[RU-05]

Silver has some industrial use, but is more a speculation than an investment. Gold is pure speculation, albeit with a potential benefit as insurance against monetary debasement. If you are unable to objectively value a security or asset, then it cannot be an investment.

I wonder if there is different use of the terms in different circles. Judging by this speculation is just an investment with significantly higher risk and reward.

"Know the Difference in Investing vs. Speculating. ... An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation in the future. Speculation is a financial transaction that has substantial risk of losing all value, but with the expectation of a significant gain."

From that I certainly see Gold and Silver as more an investment then speculation.

I also wonder why precious metals would be considered any less objectively priced then anything else.

 

[RULegion]

Vtvt is another diabetes stock I like. They are about 2.25 in a phase three for a drug called simplici which shows some great promise. If this drug gets approved could be a billions. If not back to $1. But I think it has a chance. Won’t see results until 2021.

 

[RU-05]

Over the long term fastly Twilio ddog DocuSign I think are all winners even at this starting point where they are plus 200% this year. Short term correction is due but last few times they dropped a bit a week or two later they saw all time highs again.
I like Dexcom now even after an incredible run and podd ...my daugther has type 1 and I have done my research a lot of exciting things coming in the next few years. Lots of growth.

I bought in on Fastly after the dip, and had held and will continue to hold DDOG for a bit. But I will keep an eye on upcoming earnings dater of any other holdings which have ran up over the last 3 months.

Have another in MTBC on the 10th.

 

[Frida's Boss]

I wonder if there is different use of the terms in different circles. Judging by this speculation is just an investment with significantly higher risk and reward.

"Know the Difference in Investing vs. Speculating. ... An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation in the future. Speculation is a financial transaction that has substantial risk of losing all value, but with the expectation of a significant gain."

From that I certainly see Gold and Silver as more an investment then speculation.

I also wonder why metals would be considered any less objectively priced then anything else.

Not exactly.

if you purchase stock, own real estate with tenants (the paying kind) or fixed income, you can evaluate the income that said items will generate in the future and assess the present value. This value is independent of a quote offered at any time for any of these items. If you owned a building and earned a cash yield of 10% per annum, you could assess what that is worth without having someone offer you a price for the building.

Gold produces no income. You cannot objectively value it. Someone may pay you more for it at some point, but it has no objective value on its own. It may provide insurance against monetary debasement, but that’s it. There is no future stream of income that will come from it. That is why it is not an investment, but a speculation.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Gold produces no income. You cannot objectively value it. Someone may pay you more for it at some point, but it has no objective value on its own. It may provide insurance against monetary debasement, but that’s it. There is no future stream of income that will come from it. That is why it is not an investment, but a speculation.

Sounds like a piece of art or other collectible.

I've looked at gold many times over the past few months, but just can't pull the trigger on it. Silver and other precious metals are non-starters to me.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Interesting article about gold:

Beware the Hype on Gold
It looks good this year, but its longer-term track record is mixed.

Amy C. Arnott, CFA
Jul 27, 2020

Mentioned: SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD)
Gold has been one of the hottest performers so far in 2020. With the price of gold rising nearly 17% for the first six months of the year, precious metals and commodities funds focusing on gold and other metals have been among the best performers in 2020’s turbulent market. In response, money has flooded into gold funds. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), an exchange-traded fund that ranks as by far the largest precious metals fund, has scooped up $20.4 billion in estimated net inflows over the past 12 months, increasing its asset base by roughly 30%.

In this article, I’ll take a look at the role gold can play in a portfolio and explain why it deserves a more skeptical look than the current hype might suggest.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/993455/beware-the-hype-on-gold

-----
You may need to be a Basic subscriber to Morningstar to read this (which is free). But as for gold as an inflation hedge:

Gold as an Inflation Hedge
Gold is often touted as a hedge against inflation, but its record there is more mixed. Gold did excel during the high inflationary period of the 1970s, when surging oil prices and a rapidly expanding monetary supply pushed inflation to historically high levels in the United States. During the more muted inflationary environments of the early 1980s and 1988-91, it actually posted negative total returns, on average, and lagged large-cap stocks by a wide margin.

Overall, the evidence for gold as an inflation hedge is relatively weak. Over the past 15 years, gold has had a very low correlation with inflation, with a correlation coefficient of just 0.07. The correlation has been even lower over the trailing three-year period, dropping to negative 0.26. Part of that may reflect the fact that inflation has been such a nonissue over the past 30 years or so that it’s difficult to pick up correlations with other asset classes. But even back in the high-inflation period of 1973-79, the correlation coefficient was only 0.15. The upshot: Gold’s role as an inflation hedge is probably overhyped, or at least not guaranteed to deliver if inflation becomes more of an issue.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

And what's your issue with short term $$$?

I'm up 44% in 3 weeks.

The history of silver? Good for a late night read maybe but present day silver is making me money.


Edit: I should probably take back my witty comeback above. Just checked the historical graph, and the all time high of SLV, set back in 2011, is about $48. It's currently under $27. I need to put more in.

Love the conviction. Just not my style.

 

[newell138]

Tried threading the needle of TDOC last night, which opened yesterday at $250, and just missed out at buying in at $202. Jumped to $220(has since come back to $212).

Instead I bought in on FSLY at $90, which opened yesterday at $115.

My wife bought FSLY at $20 back in the beginning of the year and was going to sell when it hit $112 but got greedy and waited. Now this morning it’s down to $86. So I’ll spend the day listening to her woulda, coulda, shoulda
Like I told her stop looking back and be happy with a profit like that. She is so afraid of making the wrong decision so she makes no decision

 

[RU-05]

Sounds like a piece of art or other collectible.

I've looked at gold many times over the past few months, but just can't pull the trigger on it. Silver and other precious metals are non-starters to me.

Love the conviction. Just not my style.

And I can respect your guys lack of interest. Plenty of other options making money right now.

Especially if your overall philosophy is buying and holding assets for a couple years or longer, I'm playing it by ear, but I could certainly see myself out of precious metals in a year.

 

[RU-05]

My wife bought FSLY at $20 back in the beginning of the year and was going to sell when it hit $112 but got greedy and waited. Now this morning it’s down to $86. So I’ll spend the day listening to her woulda, coulda, shoulda
Like I told her stop looking back and be happy with a profit like that. She is so afraid of making the wrong decision so she makes no decision

The thing about the would coulda is, you could have sold when you double your money, or tripled your money. You didn't sell when you were up 5x's your original investment, but as you say you are still up 4x. So it's all good.

But those feelings of angst for not playing a stock perfectly certainly get in my head as well.

 

[RUBoken]

So what is everyone's thought on the Golden Cross? The 50 day average moved above the 200 day (Golden Cross) and it could be an indicator of substantial longterm growth. Last time was March last year and the growth lasted until pandemic hit. Is this sustainable??

 

[Frida's Boss]

Sounds like a piece of art or other collectible.

I've looked at gold many times over the past few months, but just can't pull the trigger on it. Silver and other precious metals are non-starters to me.

My post did make a gross oversimplification of gold, and I see why it would lead to comparisons to collectibles like art or even baseball cards. However, gold is different in that, with the exception of the relatively short period of time of 1971 to the present, gold was money. Before 1971, you could, in theory, exchange the green federal reserve notes in your wallet for gold at the rate of $35 per ounce. And you could exchange foreign currencies to dollars at defined exchange rates as well, effectively linking their currencies to gold. Now, no longer, of course. Those federal reserve notes used to be IOUs for a certain amount of gold. Now they are IOU nothings. So, that is a significant difference between gold and other items.

 

[T2Kplus10]

My post did make a gross oversimplification of gold, and I see why it would lead to comparisons to collectibles like art or even baseball cards. However, gold is different in that, with the exception of the relatively short period of time of 1971 to the present, gold was money. Before 1971, you could, in theory, exchange the green federal reserve notes in your wallet for gold at the rate of $35 per ounce. And you could exchange foreign currencies to dollars at defined exchange rates as well, effectively linking their currencies to gold. Now, no longer, of course. Those federal reserve notes used to be IOUs for a certain amount of gold. Now they are IOU nothings. So, that is a significant difference between gold and other items.

Interesting stuff, thanks!

 

[T2Kplus10]

FYI - Job growth in July:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-july-2020-in-one-chart.html

 

[albanyknight]

@T2Kplus10, if he has not mentioned outright, has certainly alluded to the lack of yields in other investment options.

And I'd also disagree with the idea that Silver is not an investment. I mean, I've put money into it with the expectation of getting more money out later. Now there is the hedge aspect, not only against the market, but also against inflation.

I've actually heard people say it is more of the latter then the former, and I agree with that in that I think precious metals could go up even in a rebounding economy if people are concerned about inflation.

@T2Kplus10 is the last person to use as an example for discussing yield and he is not talking about bond yields which are a completely different issue than
stock yields. The equity market is the opposite of the debt market and few equity folks understand the debt market which is why they dismiss plunging bond yields. But the debt market eventually drives the equity market. So when you are getting the same yield on a 10-year that you are on a 30-year Treasury, then it is just a matter of time before the equity markets tank. This would of happened years ago, if not for the Fed printing money and corporations inflating their balance sheets with free cash.

But this cannot go on forever and as those of us who understood this relationship (debt vs equity) predicted a black swan event would bring the system down and that is exactly what we are witnessing. This doesn't mean the stock market won't continue to go up but most people realize that when the music stops, it is going to be extremely ugly.

But yes in the sense that you buy silver at a given price and hold to sell at a higher price. But most holders of both gold and silver are holding as a hedge in the event that the fiat system changes.

The theory is that precious metals in a reset will allow you to maintain your wealth.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

FYI - Job growth in July:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-july-2020-in-one-chart.html

Recovery still in progress-good news overall--except for the gov't workforce increase....

 

[RU-05]

@T2Kplus10 is the last person to use as an example for discussing yield and he is not talking about bond yields which are a completely different issue than
stock yields. The equity market is the opposite of the debt market and few equity folks understand the debt market which is why they dismiss plunging bond yields. But the debt market eventually drives the equity market. So when you are getting the same yield on a 10-year that you are on a 30-year Treasury, then it is just a matter of time before the equity markets tank. This would of happened years ago, if not for the Fed printing money and corporations inflating their balance sheets with free cash.

But this cannot go on forever and as those of us who understood this relationship (debt vs equity) predicted a black swan event would bring the system down and that is exactly what we are witnessing. This doesn't mean the stock market won't continue to go up but most people realize that when the music stops, it is going to be extremely ugly.

But yes in the sense that you buy silver at a given price and hold to sell at a higher price. But most holders of both gold and silver are holding as a hedge in the event that the fiat system changes.

The theory is that precious metals in a reset will allow you to maintain your wealth.

Na he was talking about the lack of yields in bonds as to why the equity market is the better(maybe only) investment option at the moment.

Whether or not you have a high opinion of him, he has been saying exactly what you are now saying.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Na he was talking about the lack of yields in bonds as to why the equity market is the better(maybe only) investment option at the moment.

Whether or not you have a high opinion of him, he has been saying exactly what you are now saying.

Word!

 

[albanyknight]

Na he was talking about the lack of yields in bonds as to why the equity market is the better(maybe only) investment option at the moment.

Whether or not you have a high opinion of him, he has been saying exactly what you are now saying.

You missed my whole point. Has nothing to do with my opinion of him. He is an equities guy who does not believe in precious metals nor understands the debt market.

He is not saying what I am saying. He says silver is a non-starter and gold is risky. That is the exact opposite of what I am saying. He is saying the market despite fluctuations will over a 10/20/30 year horizon keep going up. And while that may be true (or it may not), timing is everything in all investments. Ask people who retired in 2008 or people who had to sell their house when the housing market fell out.

What I am saying is that when this market crashes and it will crash, you can't be 100% in stocks. You need to diversify.

I have a decade of going back and forth with him on the Current Events Board and you haven't. I know exactly where he stands and it is nowhere near my position.

 

[RU-05]

You missed my whole point. Has nothing to do with my opinion of him. He is an equities guy who does not believe in precious metals nor understands the debt market.

He is not saying what I am saying. He says silver is a non-starter and gold is risky. That is the exact opposite of what I am saying. He is saying the market despite fluctuations will over a 10/20/30 year horizon keep going up. And while that may be true (or it may not), timing is everything in all investments. Ask people who retired in 2008 or people who had to sell their house when the housing market fell out.

What I am saying is that when this market crashes and it will crash, you can't be 100% in stocks. You need to diversify.

I have a decade of going back and forth with him on the Current Events Board and you haven't. I know exactly where he stands and it is nowhere near my position.

None of these points are the point to which this specific discussion originally started. That being you said no one on this board has talked about the lack of yield in the bond market. We've definitely talked about it.