Nice work. I took some profits yesterday. I’d guess we are headed back down to $45 before consolidating. I think it doubles again in the next 3-4 months.
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OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I have AMD, MRVL and INDI, all of which are also on fire, so I'm doing well in the semi space, but not having NVDA, the best in breed option, still feels like a miss.
Doubles again?
I can see them doubling their sales, ya know, to 10 cars. But doubling the share price? That one sounds iffy.
Wonder when they issue more stock to take advantage of these lofty levels?
Anyone buy the SPAC GGPI? I bought at 11 and it's pushing 15. Plan is to merge with Polestar in June, a Swedish EV company that is already producing and selling EV's.
Don't expect everyone to agree. If I told you it would have tripled back in September you would have said the same thing. Yes I expect an offering, possible production issues, etc. etc. Still think it can/will double again if it dips to 45
I'm in with you at $11.22. Very popular as an undervalued EV play and as you mention one that is "actually selling cars."
The difference between now and Sept is LCID was down in Sept. Way off it's highs. It was due for a run. It now just had that run, a mega run. Do we really expect a mega run right after a mega run? I think it would need to start selling a bunch of cars for that to happen.
I saw the Polestar at Volvo dealership lately. Yet another EV that the Teslarati think Tesla will piss on. It looked nice although not super-flashy. I don’t know if Volvo still owns a piece of Polestar but I’m sure they are leveraging Volvo know-how.
I kinda throw the run to $64 back in February out the window and don't consider it to be a real high. It traded in the low 20's for a solid 6 months. I expected it to run from 20 to 40 as the merger went official, lockups expired, etc. Again, this run from 40 to 60 was too much too soon so I agree with much of what everyone is saying. This last bit clearly seemed to be tied to Rivian's momentum in my opinion. So yes, I now expect it to consolidate here and once they start hitting production and sales goals to double again.
Volvo announced a while ago that it would go all electric by 2023 (i might be off by a year). So maybe they merge/buy/share Polestar's technology?
Your hatred for all things Tesla is blinding you to actual production numbers. Other EVs have hit the market, true, but how many are they producing? How many do they plan on producing? Can they be profitable? Prototypes are easy. Profitable production in the auto world is insanely difficult. Currently, there is 1 profitable EV maker on the planet. GM plans on producing 1 million EVs by 2025 (we'll see). Tesla is currently over 1 million/year run rate. Tesla is looking at 80% growth y/y without adding any new factories. What's going to happen when Berlin and Austin come on line? 2 million vehicles/year each once fully ramped. It's tough to catch a moving target when that target is faster than you.
We could talk about manufacturing efficiencies too but I'm probably wasting my time talking to the guy who thinks only Silicon Valley elites buy Teslas.
ARKK unloaded just about all the shares in Zillow after buying more on the dip. Think she’ll get on CNBC to explain?
Polestar is jointly owned by Volvo and the automaker's Chinese parent company, Geely.
Speaking of Tesla, this is almost too insane to not be true (click on Tweet to see expanded thread). Some people have too much time on their hands.
With all due respect, I think you and the rest of the Teslarati are blind. Tesla is a great company. No doubt. But, when you have Jim Cramer on-site at the Lucid factory raving about it on CNBC that’s not a good thing for Tesla and something that would have never have happened 2 years ago. While I think Kramer is little more than an entertainer, the Tesla moat is drying up faster than the Mojave desert. Every single news station I turn on is talking about Rivian. How can ALL of the talk about new EV companies have anything but a negative effect on Tesla? Then you look at the Tesla registration numbers and I think close to half (at least 40+%) are in CA although I didn’t go beyond a recent article someone posted. Where are the numbers that support Tesla’s world dominance? Because their margins are great? Because they could make 1M cars? I think there are more Tesla bots spamming the internet than there are Tesla cars on the road.
She already explained this a few weeks ago (via email, YT video, and Bloomberg interview).
But why a double? It's already a near $80B market cap, yet near zero rev's, does a couple million in rev's mean this should be $160B? Or are we strictly talking stock momentum?
I'd be wary of market saturation, RVIN, LCID, FSR, SEV, LI, NIO, etc. Never mind TSLA. Neve rmind the legacies.
I've been long F and GM, as my EV plays. Have done real well there. Not going to have the wild runs of the newbies, but won't have the big dips either.
Also own BWA and APTV, and those have been meh. Really I should reposition one of those to more of a beta play.
As well as NKLA, which imo is more a hydrogen play, ala PLUG(also own) and that's been OK but I've done well selling calls.
You just proved my point. Everyone is TALKING about other EVs, while Tesla is producing them profitably at scale. Lots of FOMO in the EV space right now. I don't think 30% gross automotive margin is something to poo-poo, while everyone else is in the red. American ICE vehicles don't approach that #. Current run rate = 1 million vehicles/year and growing faster than anyone else. What am I blind to? Are these not facts?
Tesla's manufacturing technology/efficiencies will be their long term advantage. Recent comments from VW and Ford CEOs reinforce what I've been saying for over a year. The boring answer to all this FOMO is Tesla is the next Tesla.
Your registration #s are wrong too. Shanghai is producing more vehicles than Fremont and none of those vehicles come to the US.
This same old conversation is becoming tedious. I should have never engaged. Let's pick up this conversation once another EV maker scales production at a profit. My guess is a Chinese company.
Two simple questions: (1) Do you agree that there is more EV competition today than there was a year ago? (2) Is competition from every major auto manufacturer and a dozen or more start-ups good or bad for Tesla? It’s inconceivable that Tesla will own the EV market forever. They will likely end up as an EV leader but in 5-10 years the EV market will mirror the traditional ICE market - i.e., there will be many great EV manufacturers for consumers to choose from.
In the end, it won’t matter because production is ramping up everywhere. Most people don’t see a Lucid ad, or any auto ad for that matter, or watch the Today Show, and immediately order a new car. They usually wait until their lease is ending or they need a new car. Then, they evaluate their options. And simply having options other than Tesla going forward will have a negative effect on Tesla. A few years ago, that was not the case. I’ll be in the market for a new car end of next year. I will look at a Tesla, along with Rivian and the Taycan, and whatever other EVs interest me. Point is - there are choices now.
Yes, but that was to explain why she double down. No interview about why she did a 180 and sold all of it.
To the first point/question- more momentum than anything else. I agree that there will be more wild runs and failures with the newbies. I don't mind that ride. I first bought CCIV at $16, have taken rides up three times now. Haven't sold the top on any of them but have made out pretty well when I've sold and am comfortable with the way I have watched it move. Some of these newbies will be winners and in my clearly biased opinion, they will be one of them.
Enough with Sawyer Merritt. The guy is a total tool and on the Tesla payroll.
Sawyer isn't the author, just the messenger. You are whining about the wrong person.
Amazon and Tesla are completely different animals. A consumer’s decision whether to buy paper towels and household goods from Amazon or Walmart+ typically comes down to price, variety, and delivery. Amazon dominates because they nail the key factors. On the other hand, buying a car is a much bigger and personal decision. Nobody I know ever bragged about how many Amazon boxes they have on their doorstep. On the other hand, people are serious about cars and preferences vary greatly hence the reason you see almost every single auto manufacturer represented on the road. This Tesla talk is nonsense.
Sawyer is one of the biggest pumpers trolling the internet and social media. He’s a Click-bait loser.
Be honest, you hate TSLA because you didn't buy it when you should have and completed missed out.
LOL.
Can't speak for him, but I bought Tesla before you did, I own a Tesla and I still think that there might be at least one car company that by some miracle can come close to competing for 2nd place behind them.
I’ve missed out on plenty of stocks my friend. I’ve also crushed it over the past 20+ years. I do not hate Tesla. I hate BS. And anyone that says Tesla is better positioned today in the EV market and that their stock valuation is reasonable is talking nothing but…
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