OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Hard to say where ARKK lands because, now that the dust has settled (may be), it’s clear that her fund was carried by certain stocks like Tesla and Shopify - and she, like all of us, benefited from a huge run-up fueled by the Fed with a dose of COVID triggered innovation (at least IMO). As her fund currently stands, I don’t like her positions over the next 12-24 months. I hear what you are saying on ZOOM but it’s a one trick pony and there is a much better horse in the barn = MSFT. ZOOM needs another product. Now, if C-Dub finds a few gene therapy, climate change, etc. gems than I’d be interested for sure.

Hold on a minute. ARKK grew +87% in 2017, which was the last time rates started regularly increasing:

Rates since 2008 global economic downturn
Dec 16, 2008 — 0.0–0.25
Dec 16, 2015 — 0.25–0.50
Dec 14, 2016 — 0.50–0.75
Mar 15, 2017 — 0.75–1.00
Jun 14, 2017 — 1.00–1.25
Dec 13, 2017 — 1.25–1.50
Mar 21, 2018 — 1.50–1.75
Jun 13, 2018 — 1.75–2.00
Sep 26, 2018 — 2.00–2.25
Dec 19, 2018 — 2.25–2.50
Jul 31, 2019 — 2.00–2.25
Sep 18, 2019 — 1.75–2.00
Oct 30, 2019 — 1.50–1.75
Mar 3, 2020 — 1.00–1.25
Mar 15, 2020 — 0.00–0.25

Not saying this will happen in 2022, but it's definitely not a certainty that ARK funds will be down in such an environment. Whether the market generates headwinds or tailwinds, it all comes down to the companies and their performance.

 

[RUBlackout]

I’m no expert on ZOOM, but I put them in the right place, right time category. there is nothing proprietary about what ZOOM does so right now name recognition is key. My gut tells me that video will become built into EVERY platform going forward so anything from Slack to Sharepoint to Teams will have it as basic feature.

To me I have used every video platform out there and its a 1a Zoom 1b Teams Situation to me. The only thing I think Zoom has in it's corner is that the name is catchy and a new verb where everyone is "Zooming" or has "Zoom Fatigue". Other than that, I think MSFT has the long game here.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’m no expert on ZOOM, but I put them in the right place, right time category. there is nothing proprietary about what ZOOM does so right now name recognition is key. My gut tells me that video will become built into EVERY platform going forward so anything from Slack to Sharepoint to Teams will have it as basic feature.

MS Teams is the best platform and the one we use. I think ZOOM may have a better webex platform itself, but Teams enables seamless communications and shared document space on the MSFT cloud. It's a great tool for business!

 

[Rutgers Chris]

This might be more relevant for the crypto thread, but I figured I’d share here. This is essentially a hedge fund that trades the crypto market at a high level. I bought into their IDO a few weeks ago. It’s been up between 50-100% thus far. The coin offer currently is just the beginning to get the fund started. The actual fund goes live in July.

This is the second Web 3.0 related IDO I’ve gotten into lately. Fascinating stuff. I’m learning everyday, but this is one of those plays where “people smarter than me” have pushed me to get involved.

NFT-onomics & membership model

Welcome to the second in a series of articles about basis.markets.

basismarkets.medium.com

 

[RUAldo]

This might be more relevant for the crypto thread, but I figured I’d share here. This is essentially a hedge fund that trades the crypto market at a high level. I bought into their IDO a few weeks ago. It’s been up between 50-100% thus far. The coin offer currently is just the beginning to get the fund started. The actual fund goes live in July.

This is the second Web 3.0 related IDO I’ve gotten into lately. Fascinating stuff. I’m learning everyday, but this is one of those plays where “people smarter than me” have pushed me to get involved.

NFT-onomics & membership model

Welcome to the second in a series of articles about basis.markets.

basismarkets.medium.com

Is IDO the new ICO? Also, have you vetted the leadership team? They don’t publish their last names and I don’t do Twitter.

BASIS MARKETS - Next-level returns. Delta-neutral yield. Real-time insights.

basis.markets

 

[RU in IM]

This might be more relevant for the crypto thread, but I figured I’d share here. This is essentially a hedge fund that trades the crypto market at a high level. I bought into their IDO a few weeks ago. It’s been up between 50-100% thus far. The coin offer currently is just the beginning to get the fund started. The actual fund goes live in July.

This is the second Web 3.0 related IDO I’ve gotten into lately. Fascinating stuff. I’m learning everyday, but this is one of those plays where “people smarter than me” have pushed me to get involved.

NFT-onomics & membership model

Welcome to the second in a series of articles about basis.markets.

basismarkets.medium.com

Good luck, and I hope it works out for you. I try to stay away from buying into things I don’t understand, and rely on “people smarter than me”.

 

[RUAldo]

More upgrades for T. The question is whether these pops/upgrades just provide temp relief or does it start climbing.

Barclays upgrades AT&T to overweight, says it's time to finally buy the long struggling stock

Clarity on the WarnerMedia deal and subscriber growth could boost AT&T in 2022, according to Barclays.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU in IM]

I’m not big into retail, but the P/E multiples are getting low; just bought some TGT and BIG. I also bought OGN, which is a Merck spin off. Decent dividend, very low P\E and in a solid and stable industry (woman’s health care).

From a Business wire article:

“Organon is a global healthcare company formed through a spin-off from Merck, (NYSE: MRK) known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, to focus on improving the health of women throughout their lives. Here for her health, Organon has a portfolio of more than 60 medicines and products across a range of therapeutic areas. Led by the reproductive health portfolio coupled with an expanding biosimilars business and stable franchise of established medicines, Organon’s products produce strong cash flows that will support investments in future growth opportunities in women’s health. In addition, Organon is pursuing opportunities to collaborate with biopharmaceutical innovators looking to commercialize their products by leveraging its scale and presence in fast growing international markets.

Organon has a global footprint that serves people in over 140 markets, world-class commercial capabilities and approximately 9,000 employees with headquarters located in Jersey City, New Jersey.”

 

[fg7321]

Whose has experience on Treasury I (eye) Bonds?

Do they rally pay 7% interest?

Any help would be appreciated

 

[coloradoknight]

Whose has experience on Treasury I (eye) Bonds?

Do they rally pay 7% interest?

Any help would be appreciated

The interest rate is a fixed rate plus a kicker for inflation. So, the answer to your question is at this point in time, yes. They rate is set twice a year.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I’m not big into retail, but the P/E multiples are getting low; just bought some TGT and BIG. I also bought OGN, which is a Merck spin off. Decent dividend, very low P\E and in a solid and stable industry (woman’s health care).

TGT and retail like that are the kind of stocks I don't mind and it is about 20% off the highs but wonder if it's not putting in a double top. Maybe a bounce coming up since it is pretty oversold but wonder if longer term a little more downside on the way.

NKE another retail stock with earnings after the bell and just around the 200 DMA. It's held a couple times but wonder if the overall market conditions will cause it to break this time unless earnings/guidance are good. I think PE is a little high historically too.

 

[RU in IM]

Whose has experience on Treasury I (eye) Bonds?

Do they rally pay 7% interest?

Any help would be appreciated

Yes, 7% until April 2022. Rates adjust every 6 months based on CPI. You can’t sell in the first year, and will forfeit only 3 months of interest if you sell within five years. There is a limit of $10k in purchases in a calendar year. So if you are married, you can buy up to $40k in Dec 2021 and Jan 2022. If you don’t have plans for the money in the next year, it’s a great purchase versus the money sitting in a bank account earning 5 basis points (1/20 of 1% at most banks). In April 2022 the rate could go way down, but at 7% for four months, you are guaranteed over 2+% for the year.

 

[T2Kplus20]

More upgrades for T. The question is whether these pops/upgrades just provide temp relief or does it start climbing.

Barclays upgrades AT&T to overweight, says it's time to finally buy the long struggling stock

Clarity on the WarnerMedia deal and subscriber growth could boost AT&T in 2022, according to Barclays.

www.cnbc.com

When everyone says to do something, do the opposite. Short T! :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’m not big into retail, but the P/E multiples are getting low; just bought some TGT and BIG. I also bought OGN, which is a Merck spin off. Decent dividend, very low P\E and in a solid and stable industry (woman’s health care).

From a Business wire article:

“Organon is a global healthcare company formed through a spin-off from Merck, (NYSE: MRK) known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, to focus on improving the health of women throughout their lives. Here for her health, Organon has a portfolio of more than 60 medicines and products across a range of therapeutic areas. Led by the reproductive health portfolio coupled with an expanding biosimilars business and stable franchise of established medicines, Organon’s products produce strong cash flows that will support investments in future growth opportunities in women’s health. In addition, Organon is pursuing opportunities to collaborate with biopharmaceutical innovators looking to commercialize their products by leveraging its scale and presence in fast growing international markets.

Organon has a global footprint that serves people in over 140 markets, world-class commercial capabilities and approximately 9,000 employees with headquarters located in Jersey City, New Jersey.”

When people are scared and emotional, it's a great time to buy. OGN is well positioned for growth via women's health and biosimilars. Biosims are finally catching on in the US. Margins are not as attractive as branded medications, but they have a lot of room to grow over the next 10 years.

I believe the entire industry should have a good run for the next few years. My play is PRHSX. I've been in this fund since late 2005.

 

[RUAldo]

When everyone says to do something, do the opposite. Short T! :)

I think that was sort of the point of the two upgrades. EVERYONE was saying sell which drove the stock down to $22.

 

[rutgersguy1]

More upgrades for T. The question is whether these pops/upgrades just provide temp relief or does it start climbing.

Barclays upgrades AT&T to overweight, says it's time to finally buy the long struggling stock

Clarity on the WarnerMedia deal and subscriber growth could boost AT&T in 2022, according to Barclays.

www.cnbc.com

It's sort of gone through a drop-bounce-retest phase so that could be a good sign. It's pushing up against the 50 DMA and I guess it'll have some trouble there for a bit.

I know you like Apple as the play for WM/Discovery but I wonder if Amazon. if there a company that makes a play, might not be the more likely company to do it.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Yes, 7% until April 2022. Rates adjust every 6 months based on CPI. You can’t sell in the first year, and will forfeit only 3 months of interest if you sell within five years. There is a limit of $10k in purchases in a calendar year. So if you are married, you can buy up to $40k in Dec 2021 and Jan 2022. If you don’t have plans for the money in the next year, it’s a great purchase versus the money sitting in a bank account earning 5 basis points (1/20 of 1% at most banks). In April 2022 the rate could go way down, but at 7% for four months, you are guaranteed over 2+% for the year.

You can buy an additional $5k of I Bonds annually should you get a federal tax refund. So, potentially, $25k per year for a married couple. Rate is currently 7.12%, up from 3.54% pre-November. TreasuryDirect.gov is the purchase outlet.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

When people are scared and emotional, it's a great time to buy. OGN is well positioned for growth via women's health and biosimilars. Biosims are finally catching on in the US. Margins are not as attractive as branded medications, but they have a lot of room to grow over the next 10 years.

I believe the entire industry should have a good run for the next few years. My play is PRHSX. I've been in this fund since late 2005.

Berkshire Hathaway holds a nice position in OGN. So....

 

[T2Kplus20]

Berkshire Hathaway holds a nice position in OGN. So....

Always a good sign!

 

[RUAldo]

I’m not big into retail, but the P/E multiples are getting low; just bought some TGT and BIG. I also bought OGN, which is a Merck spin off. Decent dividend, very low P\E and in a solid and stable industry (woman’s health care).

From a Business wire article:

“Organon is a global healthcare company formed through a spin-off from Merck, (NYSE: MRK) known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, to focus on improving the health of women throughout their lives. Here for her health, Organon has a portfolio of more than 60 medicines and products across a range of therapeutic areas. Led by the reproductive health portfolio coupled with an expanding biosimilars business and stable franchise of established medicines, Organon’s products produce strong cash flows that will support investments in future growth opportunities in women’s health. In addition, Organon is pursuing opportunities to collaborate with biopharmaceutical innovators looking to commercialize their products by leveraging its scale and presence in fast growing international markets.

Organon has a global footprint that serves people in over 140 markets, world-class commercial capabilities and approximately 9,000 employees with headquarters located in Jersey City, New Jersey.”

I took a quick look at OGN but didn’t go full blown research mode. I read something that said debt went from $150M at spin-off to $9B? Is that what caused the recent drop?

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Is IDO the new ICO? Also, have you vetted the leadership team? They don’t publish their last names and I don’t do Twitter.

BASIS MARKETS - Next-level returns. Delta-neutral yield. Real-time insights.

basis.markets

IDO is similar to an ICO, used for decentralized holdings like this. There is a ton of background info in their DIscord, but yes the last names aren't used. The whole thing is run via a DAO so there is no set leadership, everyone in the DAO has voting rights. As with your overall sentiment and RU in IM's below, I couldn't agree more. I'm not exactly mortgaging my future in these. More so using this as a way to learn something new.

Good luck, and I hope it works out for you. I try to stay away from buying into things I don’t understand, and rely on “people smarter than me”.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

The White House is getting ahead of tomorrows Biden speech now saying “this is not going to be a speech about shutting down America.” Did they just decide that? Couldn’t they have announced that yesterday when they announced the speech to help give the markets at least a little added stability?

 

[T2Kplus20]

The White House is getting ahead of tomorrows Biden speech now saying “this is not going to be a speech about shutting down America.” Did they just decide that? Couldn’t they have announced that yesterday when they announced the speech to help give the markets at least a little added stability?

The markets calmed down a bit in the afternoon. Sounds like the announcement will be about focusing on severity and hospitalizations and not about case counts anymore (since that's a no-win battle). This may be a pivot to the "gotta learn to live with it" policy.

 

[T2Kplus20]

First of many end of year recaps:

Forget Value vs. Growth--Size Drove Returns in 2021

Six charts showing how market cap drove returns.

www.morningstar.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

When in doubt, buy the big boys:

Jim Cramer says buy FAANG stocks and Microsoft as Covid omicron fears hit markets

"As they get hit by the omicron weakness, you've got my blessing to buy all six," the "Mad Money" host said.

www.cnbc.com

 

[rutgersguy1]

When in doubt, buy the big boys:

Jim Cramer says buy FAANG stocks and Microsoft as Covid omicron fears hit markets

"As they get hit by the omicron weakness, you've got my blessing to buy all six," the "Mad Money" host said.

www.cnbc.com

That’s my motto in doubt or not lol. My risk tolerance doesn’t go far below large or megacap stocks for my own trading.

 

[T2Kplus20]

That’s my motto in doubt or not lol. My risk tolerance doesn’t go far below large or megacap stocks for my own trading.

Earnings matter! Companies do well, stocks will also do well over time.

 

[RU-05]

The markets calmed down a bit in the afternoon. Sounds like the announcement will be about focusing on severity and hospitalizations and not about case counts anymore (since that's a no-win battle). This may be a pivot to the "gotta learn to live with it" policy.

Afternoon and into extended.

Up this morning, let's see how it holds up.

I did buy some T. But still have a bunch of cash.

 

[RU-05]

Micron with a nice beat. Chip shortage ending in 2022?

 

[RUAldo]

Micron with a nice beat. Chip shortage ending in 2022?

Glad I own MU although it’s been a bumpy ride. Hope it finally starts climbing towards $100.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Micron with a nice beat. Chip shortage ending in 2022?

Semis should continue to roll in 2022 and beyond. Earnings matter and everything has a chip in it now!

 

[rutgersguy1]

TGT and retail like that are the kind of stocks I don't mind and it is about 20% off the highs but wonder if it's not putting in a double top. Maybe a bounce coming up since it is pretty oversold but wonder if longer term a little more downside on the way.

NKE another retail stock with earnings after the bell and just around the 200 DMA. It's held a couple times but wonder if the overall market conditions will cause it to break this time unless earnings/guidance are good. I think PE is a little high historically too.

NKE with solid earnings but maybe a little mixed. Strong North America sales…up 6.5% at the open. Looks like it will bounce away from the 200 DMA again.

 

[RU-05]

I keep wondering when the time to buy INTC is.

Looks like the prototype value trap with a low P/E and stagnant earnings.

And those earnings are expected to shrink in the years ahead.

BUT, INTC has beaten expectations every qtr except one(dead even, not a miss) over the last 4 years. Beat expectations by about 33% over the last 4 qtr's.

Gelsinger was well received but the thought is the undertaking will be a process. I think COVID, and the semi supply chain issues which followed, showed the importance of building more in the US. Intel is doing that. TSM seems to be under pressure given China is looming over it, I'd think that should help Intel. Semi's in general have had a great year, INTC is 10% below it's precovid levels.

Currently at $50. Looks like strong support at $45 going back to 2018 having bounced off that level 5 times since then, including the covid dip. So moderate downside risk.

P/E of high 9'x. Which is low end of the 4 year range, and below pre covid levels.

Like T, it has a spinoff in it's future. Unlike T and it's current 9% dividend INTC has "relatively modest" 2.8% dividend, as it has decided to put money to work in the form of foundry builds.

 

[RU-05]

Wolfspeed gets a CNBC shout out on tech check.

 

[RUAldo]

Interesting:

AT&T Agrees to Microsoft Acquisition of Xandr

/PRNewswire/ -- AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) has agreed to sell its global programmatic advertising marketplace, Xandr Inc., to Microsoft.1 The agreement builds on a...

www.prnewswire.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Interesting:

AT&T Agrees to Microsoft Acquisition of Xandr

/PRNewswire/ -- AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) has agreed to sell its global programmatic advertising marketplace, Xandr Inc., to Microsoft.1 The agreement builds on a...

www.prnewswire.com

Gotta pay off their massive debt somehow.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I keep wondering when the time to buy INTC is.

Looks like the prototype value trap with a low P/E and stagnant earnings.

And those earnings are expected to shrink in the years ahead.

BUT, INTC has beaten expectations every qtr except one(dead even, not a miss) over the last 4 years. Beat expectations by about 33% over the last 4 qtr's.

Gelsinger was well received but the thought is the undertaking will be a process. I think COVID, and the semi supply chain issues which followed, showed the importance of building more in the US. Intel is doing that. TSM seems to be under pressure given China is looming over it, I'd think that should help Intel. Semi's in general have had a great year, INTC is 10% below it's precovid levels.

Currently at $50. Looks like strong support at $45 going back to 2018 having bounced off that level 5 times since then, including the covid dip. So moderate downside risk.

P/E of high 9'x. Which is low end of the 4 year range, and below pre covid levels.

Like T, it has a spinoff in it's future. Unlike T and it's current 9% dividend INTC has "relatively modest" 2.8% dividend, as it has decided to put money to work in the form of foundry builds.

INTC is the old semi stalwart that doesn't seem to be able to innovate quickly enough any more. However, semi demand is so high and growing that you gotta think that tide will lift them as well.

 

[RU-05]

ATVI.

Trading at the 4 year P/E low from early 2019 at about 17x.

Outside of that 6 month stretch from 2019 this typically trades as a mid 20 multiple, and was in the 30's prior to that 2019 run.

Has the sexual harrasment issue hanging over it, but that's built in. Are there more issues of that ilk that could come to light? Sounds doubtful I think.

Earnings expected to be flat into 2022 but they beat earnings every qtr. And then growth is expected to return in 2023.

Rev's looking at mid teens growth expected in the years ahead.

 

[RU-05]

When people are scared and emotional, it's a great time to buy. OGN is well positioned for growth via women's health and biosimilars. Biosims are finally catching on in the US. Margins are not as attractive as branded medications, but they have a lot of room to grow over the next 10 years.

I believe the entire industry should have a good run for the next few years. My play is PRHSX. I've been in this fund since late 2005.

My E-Trade not expecting growth for OGN, super stagnant in that regard.. So I'll have to consult my magic 8-ball for clarity.

Super cheap, but a head shoulders formation on the chart. But how much cheaper can it get?

Seems like a safe haven if nothing else, and maybe it gets some love on that front if the spec tech continues to sell off.

 

[T2Kplus20]

My E-Trade not expecting growth for OGN, super stagnant in that regard.. So I'll have to consult my magic 8-ball for clarity.

Super cheap, but a head shoulders formation on the chart. But how much cheaper can it get?

Seems like a safe haven if nothing else, and maybe it gets some love on that front if the spec tech continues to sell off.

I meant revenue growth for OGN, but definitely no spec-like growth for its stock. It may be a slow and steady play (i.e., long hold).