That's an interesting idea.....margin investing with index funds. I guess it would diminish the risks. Still, this just seems like investing via a credit card.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
1)Obviously the big tech stocks have been carrying the market but we do see other areas, like home improvement which have been strong as well. Now I think It does reflect the bifurcated real economy but it is overly exaggerated. When you see 32% up, while 68% down yet the market is up as much as it is? It's out of whack.Interesting article:
The S&P 500′s return to a record doesn’t tell the full story with 60% of stocks still with losses
The S&P 500's return to a record doesn't tell the full story with 60% of stocks still with losses
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, wiping out losses from the coronavirus-induced selloff, but new analysis shows most stocks have yet to climb back to prior levels.www.cnbc.com
It's a market of winners and losers.
@Frida's Boss
@RU-05
@albanyknight
Thoughts about this?
2)Be on the look out and on the ready to transition to those underperforming stocks. Certain tech stocks prices are way out ahead of earnings, I think those stocks will cool while the broader market rallies.
3))I think it also highlights the amount of new money, and new investors, in the market. All of this new money will not be long term, but I think a fair amount will. I'm thinking once the economy is humming again the market will be significantly higher then the highs prior to covid.
I have moved into gold ETF's and funds that bet against the market. Still in a couple of pharmaceuticals but the underlying fundamentals of the economy (not the market) are flashing red.
Wow, VIX is very risky. But is does hedge against a down market better than gold. Remember, in March, gold went down too.
The issuer’s underwriter comes up with an IPO share price and number of shares to raise a certain amount of capital for the issuer. Those shares are allocated to other investment banks involved in the deal and their large clients, generally. As an “ordinary” investor, you would typically not have access to that and would purchase shares in the secondary market once they start trading. The price when it starts trading may be higher or lower than the IPO price. If the stock “pops” some feel that underwriters left money on the table, others like to see the increase since it can generate excitment among some traders.
The dollar remains the undisputed global reserve currency:
www.cnbc.com
The dollar may slide further, but analysts say its demise is 'greatly exaggerated'
The U.S. economic recovery is in question, given its weak coronavirus response. The dollar had also reacted to the country's surging deficit and the prospect of U.S. interest rates remaining lower for longer.
We better hope it stays that wayThe dollar remains the undisputed global reserve currency:
The dollar may slide further, but analysts say its demise is 'greatly exaggerated'
The U.S. economic recovery is in question, given its weak coronavirus response. The dollar had also reacted to the country's surging deficit and the prospect of U.S. interest rates remaining lower for longer.
The party continues:
S&P 500 rises to another record, even as rally leader Apple snaps 5-day winning streak
S&P 500 rises to another record, even as rally leader Apple snaps 5-day winning streak
The party to continue:
Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer
www.cnbc.com
Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer
Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer
The Federal Reserve announced a major policy shift Thursday, saying that it is willing to allow inflation to run hotter than normal in order to support the labor market and broader economy.
U.S. consumer spending beats expectations in July
WASHINGTON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in July, strengthening expectations for a sharp rebound in economic growth in the third quarter, though momentum is likely to ebb as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and fiscal stimulus dries up.
The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 1.9% last month, after jumping 6.2% in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending gaining 1.5% in July. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Alex Richardson)
WASHINGTON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in July, strengthening expectations for a sharp rebound in economic growth in the third quarter, though momentum is likely to ebb as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and fiscal stimulus dries up.
The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 1.9% last month, after jumping 6.2% in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending gaining 1.5% in July. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Alex Richardson)
Market posts one of the strongest July-August rallies in history as hazard after hazard melts away
The S&P 500 is up 13% since June 30, while rising the past seven days in a row and every day in August but four.
"uncertain times"....
Find me the Perfect time to invest with no risk.
Was it during the Jimmy Carter years with AAA rated, triple tax exempt bonds earning 12 % ?
The highest rated bonds in the USA ! With NO taxes on the dividend and with call protection at a premium.
I can tell you that I was a Registered Representative (what's called a Stock Broker) with a Series 7 License and you had to almost force people at gun point to invest in that type of investment. 12 PERCENT !
Find me the Perfect time to invest with no risk.
Was it during the Jimmy Carter years with AAA rated, triple tax exempt bonds earning 12 % ?
The highest rated bonds in the USA ! With NO taxes on the dividend and with call protection at a premium.
I can tell you that I was a Registered Representative (what's called a Stock Broker) with a Series 7 License and you had to almost force people at gun point to invest in that type of investment. 12 PERCENT !
If you had bonds with 12% now, there would be a riot to get them. It would look like Lord of the Flies.
I beefed up on BLL back in April and it’s paying off nicely. Up to about 80 bucks. Great company and stock
Good read on some individual stocks:
www.cnbc.com
With the market back at a record, Wall Street's top analysts think these stocks can go even higher
We used TipRanks analyst ranking service to pinpoint Wall Street's best-performing analysts.
Sold half my VRM position at a 10% gain a couple weeks back, and just sold the rest at 21% this week. I feel it might be a good company to hold long term, but I bought it with the intent of it being a short term trade and I'm currently holding too many positions, so I'm looking to consolidate.
I do want to get in on GRWG which went on a super hot run recently, but it has been a fast growing company which could really take off if cannabis legalization becomes more widespread. Which is really a question of how many states will open up not if states will open up. But I do want to see if it settles down a bit.
Also bought WMT which jumped on TIK TOK news, but I'm looking at it more as an AMZN competitor as Covid has forced it to transition more to online sales and even deliveries.
The party continues until it doesn't.
Just looking at the P/E ratio of the indexes now compared to a year ago doesn't inspire great confidence (IMHO).
Dow P/E now 25.89 compared to Dow P/E year ago 17.10.
S&P P/E now 26.74 compared to S&P P/E year ago 17.65.
Nasdaq Composite P/E now 33.93 compared to Nasdaq Composite year ago 21.13.
September is coming and the stimulus money is drying up and the US still has over 10% unemployment.
As for the Fed, they are worried about paying for over $26 Trillion in Debt.
Let inflation increase to pay with cheaper dollars and hold down interest expenses with low interest rates.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
Just looking at the P/E ratio of the indexes now compared to a year ago doesn't inspire great confidence (IMHO).
Dow P/E now 25.89 compared to Dow P/E year ago 17.10.
S&P P/E now 26.74 compared to S&P P/E year ago 17.65.
Nasdaq Composite P/E now 33.93 compared to Nasdaq Composite year ago 21.13.
September is coming and the stimulus money is drying up and the US still has over 10% unemployment.
As for the Fed, they are worried about paying for over $26 Trillion in Debt.
Let inflation increase to pay with cheaper dollars and hold down interest expenses with low interest rates.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
The stock market is being driven by the big techs and growth stocks. As of two weeks ago, 62% of the S&P 500 stocks were still negative YTD. However, here is the truth. Tech is up because Tech is CRUSHING it. Society has changed over the past 6 months and tech is raking it in. I don't see this changing any time soon.
This discussion to be continued.
I am waiting for future earning reports to come in and how they reflect on the P/E.
Of all the indexes the Nasdaq Composite has the worst at over 33.
With a decrease in earnings its hard to get excited for significantly higher stock prices.
I still believe the end of stimulus effects and 10% unemployment will spook the market.
My prediction is that by the end of September the stock market will see at least a 3-5% drop.
For that reason I am in caution mode (holding/retreating) and looking for the next buying opportunity.
Lets discuss further at the end of September.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
I am waiting for future earning reports to come in and how they reflect on the P/E.
Of all the indexes the Nasdaq Composite has the worst at over 33.
With a decrease in earnings its hard to get excited for significantly higher stock prices.
I still believe the end of stimulus effects and 10% unemployment will spook the market.
My prediction is that by the end of September the stock market will see at least a 3-5% drop.
For that reason I am in caution mode (holding/retreating) and looking for the next buying opportunity.
Lets discuss further at the end of September.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
52% of the S+P is in the technology, healthcare and communications (AT+T, Verizon, etc.) sectors. Those three sectors, which seem to be most resilient to the impact of the coronavirus, are driving the current performance of the market (that and about $1.25T invested by the Treasury/Fed in stock market related bond transactions). The broader US economy is clearly in much worse shape than those three sectors.
Personally I have been slowly decreasing my exposure to the market over the past six months. I was probably 75% exposed in March and now am around 40%. I am sitting mostly in cash/cash equivalents. My feeling is the broader US economy is struggling and the market is over performing. While I think I understand the "why" the market is over performing (tech, healthcare and communications make up a disproportionate percentage of the S+P), I dont see it as sustainable.
There is an old saying that goes something like "Buy when there is blood in the streets". If you believe the market isn't appropriately reflecting the struggles facing the broader economy and the current performance is not sustainable (as I do) sitting on liquidity is a sound strategy.
Personally I have been slowly decreasing my exposure to the market over the past six months. I was probably 75% exposed in March and now am around 40%. I am sitting mostly in cash/cash equivalents. My feeling is the broader US economy is struggling and the market is over performing. While I think I understand the "why" the market is over performing (tech, healthcare and communications make up a disproportionate percentage of the S+P), I dont see it as sustainable.
There is an old saying that goes something like "Buy when there is blood in the streets". If you believe the market isn't appropriately reflecting the struggles facing the broader economy and the current performance is not sustainable (as I do) sitting on liquidity is a sound strategy.
After this performance, a 3-5% drop is peanuts. However, it would represent a nice buying opportunity.
Another great day:
S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs to start September, Dow jumps more than 200 points
www.cnbc.com
S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs to start September, Dow jumps more than 200 points
S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at record highs to start September, Dow jumps more than 200 points
Stocks rose on Tuesday, led by tech shares, as traders kicked off a historically tough month for the market on the right foot.
Anyone following NNOX? I bought a small amount after listening to this podcast. If they can execute, this company could a game changer in the x-ray business. I bought on Friday fully expecting to hold for a few years or more - maybe gradually add to my starter position. I'm up 40%.
The next next big thing (I think): SNOW. IPO will be coming out soon. I expect a feeding frenzy the first few days.
The next next big thing (I think): SNOW. IPO will be coming out soon. I expect a feeding frenzy the first few days.
Saw NNOX jumping on the ticker yesterday. I'll dig around on each of these. Always appreciate a good stock tip.
Last edited:
I don't think anyone would argue against the idea that the market is over performing, but you do have to wonder just how much it is. Especially for those stocks which represent the future. Zoom might be a great example. On fire since the start of Covid and shot up another ridiculous amount yesterday. But is it unjustified? Certainly at least a little, but maybe not that much.
Also interesting that the traditional non tech stocks that are doing well, are those that are implementing tech heavy into their business models. Tesla is leading the way in Auto but I think you will see the other companies follow suit because of Tesla's jump here(and China's push of EV), but also retailers like WMT, TGT and just this morning Macy's which is jumping on higher online sales news.
Last edited:
Ya rates of return have to be viewed alongside the corresponding interest rate right? What was the rate of return of the market during that time?
I'm thinking(without doing any historical research) the current dsiparity between rate of return between market and bonds is pretty dang big.
The market is over performing expectations because the large techs are over performing expectations. This isn't wild speculation from 99/00. The tech companies are crushing it and are winning in the new corona environment.
The 2 things that have changed are Tepper's state of residency and the taxes he no longer pays to New Jersey. And we're talking a low or high 8 figure dollar difference depending on the year.
Maybe it was @BigWill who said he bought a bunch of SH a month or so ago.
Now it has lost a little over 5% since that time as the Market has risen around it. But it might be worth it to keep a bit in the back pocket to hedge against whatever level dip that will inevitably happen.
A modest dip has to be coming soon, which will provide a wonderful buying opportunity! First good one in a month or so.
I think the argument of overperformance is not against expectations but reality. Apple stock price for instance is up more then earnings. Same for AMZN. Same for many others.
And that is without considering TSLA.
Now interestingly there are a few tech stocks like Intel, IBM, or Sony which are underperforming. Intel recently dipped on news of Covid delays and loss of marketshare, but their earnings were still very good, this prompted a stock buy back.
