OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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So "timing" is really just evaluating fundamentals over time, and thus shouldn't be considered luck?
@albanyknight and @Frida's Boss
This thread seems to have burgeoned into a cautionary tale. I too succumbed to dot.com era irrational exuberance, but have long since been dollar cost average investing in a targeted retirement fund. I appreciate your insights and contrarian views, and am curious if you have any specific investment suggestions going forward? TIA
This thread seems to have burgeoned into a cautionary tale. I too succumbed to dot.com era irrational exuberance, but have long since been dollar cost average investing in a targeted retirement fund. I appreciate your insights and contrarian views, and am curious if you have any specific investment suggestions going forward? TIA
No one knows how much "institutional money" is on the sidelines. However, I DO know that there will be plenty of institutional money jumping in to short the s--t out of the market once this bubble is ready to pop. It will accelerate the the crash in ways never seen before.
Timing is luck. Shifting into and out of asset classes or individual securities based upon relative and absolute value is not timing. Of course, when dealing with the future, you’re always going to have uncertainty and, thus share of good and bad luck. But you can think of it in a probabilistic sense. Your odds are better when prices, and presumably values, are attractive (see April 2020 or, before that, 2009). The odds are worse when valuations are stretched (see today, 1999). Your odds are better when sellers are panicked and, perhaps selling for non economic reasons. Your odds are better when valuations are lower. Your odds are generally better when prices reflect undue pessimism. I mentioned this in another thread, but one market observer offered a very succinct summary, “when its time to buy, you won’t want to.”
I don’t see any of those factors present today.
Much depends on your specific situation: your age, your existing portfolio etc. My generic advice at this juncture is only invest in the market what you can afford to lose. By this I am not talking about long term investments like IRAs and 401(ks) but individual stocks.
I have pulled out of stocks and continue to buy gold and silver. I am a big believer in not having debt (other than your mortgage) and only buying everything else with cash. If we don't have the cash, we do without.
I think it is prudent to have cash on hand as well and enough food in your house to live w/o leaving the house for a month.
All the indicators are flashing red: unemployment, GDP, money velocity, bond yields. Stocks are the last stand and there are almost certainly plays to be made but at this point, I agree with Frida that it is mostly just a crap-shoot.
I am attaching the link for the company that I buy my precious metals from. They are very reputable. They will also do a consultation over the phone, looking at your portfolio and provide recommendations.
Best of luck to you.
https://www.itmtrading.com/contactus
FYI - the other POV:
Depression-like collapse is sparking a wartime-type boom, market bull Jim Paulsen predicts
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/dep...k-a-wartime-boom-market-bull-jim-paulsen.html
Depression-like collapse is sparking a wartime-type boom, market bull Jim Paulsen predicts
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/dep...k-a-wartime-boom-market-bull-jim-paulsen.html
You seem to know it's overvalued without doing a full valuation, so similarly just give me a rough estimate.
I know I am being argumentative, but I argue because I am trying to figure things out here, and you seem to have an opinion based on a strong foundation.
But I do ask, how long in this recent run have you been skeptical of it? And how much more will it need to run before you say: "Hey I missed out on making some money here"?
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Please point me to where I’ve specifically said “AMZN” is overvalued.
That said, with regard to most overvalued stocks, you don’t need to perform a valuation to determine if it’s overvalued or not. Sort of like not needing to know a man’s precise weight to determine if he is overweight or not.
Tell you what. What don’t you show me your valuatio? DCF with growth, margin, WC, capex and tax assumptions along with your discount and perpetuity growth rates (please provide assumptions for each). I’d also like to see a sum of the parts stripping out AWS (which I suspect is quite valuable, actually). Show me an earnings power analysis, and how you treat their prodigious marketing spend. Public comps would be interesting, I suppose, but might be tough to identify.
I’ll then tell you how you did,
I never say I missed out on making money when I’ve exited positions that are overvalued. Of course there was a period of time this year where various asset classes were quite attractive. Again, you manage risk by buying when cheap, realizing you will likely be early and not bottom tick (which is why you average down) and then you sell on the way back up, in increments.
you approach this as if your buying pieces of paper rather than fractional ownership in businesses. If you look at it more from a business owner perspective, you’ll think more clearly. Trading is a good way to generate income for others, but not terribly enriching to the trader over a reasonable period of time.
I never said I was able to make such evaluations. But I'm also not the one saying how over valued things are.
I just figured someone making such claims would be able to give a rough estimate.
oh? You seem to idetify many securities as undervalued, so I’m surprised you lack the ability to perform such”evaluations.” I guess you’re not just argumentative, but ignorant as well,
once again, good luck.
I can understand the view point that this won't last forever and that there are underpinnings which could give way in the future.
But right now the gov't and the fed are propping up the market and way too many stocks are running to claim it has been a crap shoot. People may not like it, and may not want to be part of it, but that is the current situation.
all I know is I'm doing very well having been out an in before the swings
You can't time, when you decide to time it, it's too late one way or the other. Be ahead of the curve
You can't time, when you decide to time it, it's too late one way or the other. Be ahead of the curve
I just asked you to give a rough estimate on AMZN. Now, as it turns out maybe you think the current value is a fair one. So how bout AAPL? Or MSFT? These are the major drivers of the current market. Are these the stocks that you see as being over valued?
Thank Goodness, Alibaba turned green and sold, China used the Great Wall to protect their businesses and stole all of our ideas, looks like Trump and Pompeo are telling them to keep inside their wall. The Buffet indicator is also predicting a correction. I am going to wait until after the election. Also more Covid pts trickling into the hospital now. I do not see how the economy can grow with record numbers of covid infections now and winter will be coming.
Crap shoot may have been a bit harsh. I agree that you can evaluate a company and make an informed decision on buying its stock or not.
And I personally am continuing to play around with my E-Trade account. But I believe that eventually, the fed is going to turn off the faucet. And I have to believe that time is soon.
E-Trade is great! We use it for our brokerage account as well. Taking the plunge today and adding VWIGX to our portfolio. This will be the first fund via E-Trade, but there are no comparable ETFs. Putting a toe back into the international market after we dumped most of it 3-4 years ago (which was a great decision).
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I don't know if the Fed has come this far, and spent this much money, only to turn it off without crossing the finish line. Or at least what many expected would be the finish line, Dec/Jan for a Vaccine for instance.
The feds aren't going to change policy until we have a vaccine, herd immunity, and economic metrics back to pre-corona levels.
That is a good point and perhaps I am being premature in my chicken little stance. I am however, a bit skeptical about a vaccination by late 2020 early 2021. I also wonder at what point corporations are going to batten down the hatches and pad their balance sheets.
Given that much of market behavior is psychological, it really is very hard to tell.
I'm seeing countless public companies cutting back or eliminating their growth capex spending. This will impact growth over the next 3-5 years. Managements are just trying to survive and cutting costs wherever possible to conserve cash. The current market P/E is way too high by any historical measure. Will it go higher? I have no idea. But it will adjust downward at some point relatively soon. I own AAPL (almost all of us do in large quantities thru our index funds). Is it that much more valuable than it was a couple of months ago, or even before COVID? I'm not so sure.
AAPL is interesting on a couple fronts. Yes it just continues to go up and you can help but wonder where the ceiling is . But even in the face of Covid, it did have an excellent quarter. It is also establishing itself in the streaming market. And then there is 5G in the very near future.
It's similar to AMZN in that it is already a monster that was not only unfazed by Covid, but it is actually benefitting from it.
Edit: News out today that Peloton will now be facing competition from Apple in whatever business you want to call that. Another example of the strength of a company like Apple in an ever increasing digital world.
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correct, before the fed does that, they'll remove the repo lines with European central banks. The indicator will be when they tighten the pledge restrictions. Before that they'll assess the liquidity strength of the major banks and FBO's with their survey on window ops
Retail sales lower than expected, but it was mainly due to autos. Overall, looks like retails sales has fully recovered.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/retail-sales-july-2020.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/retail-sales-july-2020.html
Retail sales lower than expected, but it was mainly due to autos. Overall, looks like retails sales has fully recovered.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/14/retail-sales-july-2020.html
I bought a few Tommie Copper masks this week
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