OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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This is just the give back on the other side. “Investors” irrationally poured money on the upside on many tech growth and speculative companies (pre profit). Your right, emotions did get the better of people, but on the up side…….the fear of missing out! Maybe the 3 little bears were on to something. The correction has been monumental for many stocks, including these well known companies:
zoom 72% off its high
ARKK -49.9%
Zillow 74%
SOFI -54%
PTON -81%
PLTR -64%
DASH -49%
DKNG -67.%
CRWD -41%
COIN -35%
BIIB -45%
RIVN -55%
TDOC -73%
ROKU -57%
SQ -52%
TWTR -50%
HOOD -82%
Even a great companies like NVDA (-23%), NFLX (-26%) ADBE (-25%) got way stretched
TSLA hanging tough, only down 17% off its high (might see some more pain here)
And all this during a time when the S&P is not far off from its all time high; scary.
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Tha
Plus still a ton of money still out there. Question is where does it go? Even if you are wary of being in mega tech and their 25-30x P/E's or AMZN at much higher then that, then find the more reasonably valued companies. They are definitely out there.
Scary? Meh, how many of those companies are in the S&P. And what weighting do they have in that index? Miniscule.
Plus still a ton of money still out there. Question is where does it go? Even if you are wary of being in mega tech and their 25-30x P/E's or AMZN at much higher then that, then find the more reasonably valued companies. They are definitely out there.
Most money goes back into mega tech for 2 reasons:
1. Vast majority of people just dump money in index funds via 401ks or other retirement plans.
2. These are the companies making the most money! Remember, earnings always rule the day.
2 good points.
But I'd make an amendment to #2, they make a ton, but their earnings also continue to grow. Unlike say INTC, or IBM.
Don’t disagree that it’s money making time (but got to pick your spots)…i have made a couple moves and may make a few more…….just pointing out that some prices got way out of whack.
And I’m not necessarily an overall bear; I just have seen some cycles where spec stocks run wild; then get killed. I actually increased my stock holdings from 40 to over 50 companies in 2021 (mostly energy and materials; added AA, PSX, increased ENB, CVX, increased XOM, FCX, STLD, CLF, and had a great year, beating the s&p in both my investment account and 401k PCRA.
How long before your trading portfolio becomes a buy and hold portfolio?
Excellent amendment! The bears are running into value traps. Bears always lose money to the bulls in the long run.
LOL! I use that term trading very loosely. As mentioned before, I have 12 stocks that are 100% hold unless something serious happens with the companies. Those are essentially part of our retirement investments. No touch beside allocation tweaks as needed.
This new account is more like, make moves after ATHs or when other opportunities look better. And yes, there is overall between the 2 lists of stocks.
I can't make those types of specific moves, but not enough time and patience. Also, we just don't need to (to reach our retirement investment goals). While my new shorter term stock account is relatively small, it is still good money that I want to grow. So I am learning.
For the most part, 3LBs have been proven right on this thread. When spec stocks were at ATHs we talked about valuations/fundamentals and predicted a nasty decline. The retail trader nonsense and FOMO wouldn’t last forever. Now is the time to shop although I’m still not convinced even the former high flyers are truly on sale yet. I have not bought any tech yet. I already own a lot of Google and Meta which I think are great long term. I’d like to buy MSFT soon. I’m also nibbling on Match, Align, and InMode.
If I could predict market bottoms, I'd have more money than Bezos.
For those wondering about ARKK there is some good info in this article. They have barely had any outflows so far.
Fund assets have declined by about $15 billion since the peak, but only approximately $1.1 billion of that was from net outflows -- the rest of the drop has been caused by performance. The ETF is now trading well below an estimate of its average purchase price since-inception.
Cathie Wood Outflows Grow as Diehard Fans Face Biggest Test
(Bloomberg) -- The loyalty of Cathie Wood’s legion of fans may be finally waning, as the new year bloodbath in speculative technology stocks hands the star money manager a miserable start to 2022.Most Read from BloombergCannabis Compounds Prevented Covid Infection in Laboratory StudyFrequent...
That’s not how I read the article. They have had some massive outflows, especially on Wednesday. The outflows plus performance cut the stock in half.For those wondering about ARKK there is some good info in this article. They have barely had any outflows so far.
Fund assets have declined by about $15 billion since the peak, but only approximately $1.1 billion of that was from net outflows -- the rest of the drop has been caused by performance. The ETF is now trading well below an estimate of its average purchase price since-inception.
Cathie Wood Outflows Grow as Diehard Fans Face Biggest Test
(Bloomberg) -- The loyalty of Cathie Wood’s legion of fans may be finally waning, as the new year bloodbath in speculative technology stocks hands the star money manager a miserable start to 2022.Most Read from BloombergCannabis Compounds Prevented Covid Infection in Laboratory StudyFrequent...finance.yahoo.com
yes, $340m is a lot for one day, but over time its only $1billion. That's not much for the size of the fund. I think the investor selling has just started.
Peter Lynch said in that video I posted a few weeks ago.....if anyone could predict interest rates 3 times in a row, that person would be a billionaire. LOL!
+1For those wondering about ARKK there is some good info in this article. They have barely had any outflows so far.
Fund assets have declined by about $15 billion since the peak, but only approximately $1.1 billion of that was from net outflows -- the rest of the drop has been caused by performance. The ETF is now trading well below an estimate of its average purchase price since-inception.
Cathie Wood Outflows Grow as Diehard Fans Face Biggest Test
(Bloomberg) -- The loyalty of Cathie Wood’s legion of fans may be finally waning, as the new year bloodbath in speculative technology stocks hands the star money manager a miserable start to 2022.Most Read from BloombergCannabis Compounds Prevented Covid Infection in Laboratory StudyFrequent...
I saw that too. I think this was talked about on CNBC recently. Not much outflows at all.
I don’t see ARKK going anywhere but down unless it’s top 10 positions reverse course. Tesla is the only reason it’s not at $60.
I've been thinking about MSFT at 280-290 if it gets there. 200 DMA is at 290 and the last time it came near that and penetrated it was at the start of the pandemic in Feb/March 2020. That would be about 20% off the highs.
Multiple compression has touched those high flyers you mention and I wonder if it doesn't as well (to a lesser degree)to some of the big old techs that might be trading at multiples higher than their norms. Like MSFT maybe should be mid 20s-30 but right now trading at mid 30s.
Careful with waiting too long. MSFT will be at $400 in short order.
Rising interest rates have a way of whacking high P/E and speculative stocks; which ARKK overinvests in.
Buy GS. 6.3 P/E.
What am I missing? Pfizer recently acquired Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) in an all-cash transaction for $100 / share. Arena was trading at roughly $50 prior to the acquisition and is currently trading at $92.50. A 7.5% discount seems excessive. Only 2 hurdles exist: HSR and shareholder vote. The HSR paperwork has been filed and the vote, with nearly 95% held by institutions, is set for early next month.
Which is a shame; it means that people rode this all the way down, or jumped in to try to catch the falling knife. At least you bailed and avoided the disaster. As it turns out, Cathie’s best purchase in the last 18 months was buying a home in Hilton Head, where her property value has to be up about 50% since then. If her performance doesn’t pick up, I might see her at the local Piggly Wiggly, versus Whole Foods.
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It took some work, but I was able to get out with little downside, thanks to the volatility in March thru June.
Well, the deal wont close until mid 2022 so your money will be tied up for a few months plus their a bit of risk premium if the deal doesn't get through due to the high stock buyout price. That being said, if the deal goes through it will be close to 100.
Catching falling knives in a bull market is a dumb strategy. Easier, less risky ways to make money.
Net of unrealized loan loss credit, it would have been a miss. I like GS better and even MS better than JPM.
MS has dicked around 100 support level for 6 months. With rising rates it should break out of its range.
like them too. They'll make money on the credit spread prob more than anyone else.
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