long GS and looking to get into ms soon. Big banks are at low multiples and higher rates won't hurt them so it's a safe harbor.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
PYPL is kicking my ass. Not sure if I bail at this point or hope for rebound.
Broke that 180 trendline again, the more times it does that and the longer it stays below it your short could be good. New 52 week low today. I think 170-175 area is another area of support. 155 or so after and then 125 area after that. It is oversold though but doesn't mean it can't stay that way for awhile.
I’ve held GS since shortly after it went public in 1999. I agree with your points on low multiples of banks and also interest rates.
Yeah I dont like the support around 175. I have a stop limit to cover at 177.10. $1000 on 100 shares on a one day swing trade is a good life.
That's about the reverse of the couple long trades I've done with it but a different range. I could've done it more times but I'm too chicken.
Thinking about doing it again but new range now with that 180 trend line being a ceiling this time..maybe 185ish and the bottom of the range 170-175ish.
It's like a one night stand. Going back to a stock that you beat in a swing trade is never as good the 2nd time and it usually ends up costing you.
Plus the macro trend on stocks like PYPL is negative right now.
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Funny thing is that I don’t get excited by 1k short term trading gain. But I’m like pig in sh1t if I win 1k at the Blackjack table, no sure why.
Well, I have two accounts: an investment account at Fidelity which is buy and hold and a TD Ameritrade account that I use for day trades or swing trades. At the end of every month I pull out 65% of what I net. Most days I make $50 or $100 and some days I lose $50 or $100 but usually I'll make a couple of grand net every month. Not enough to sustain a career but it keeps me plugged into the market and it allows me to find long term trades to do on my Fidelity account.
If I did it all in one account it would not feel significant to me but transferring that cash from my TD Ameritrade account into my bank and pulling it out of the ATM makes me happy as a pig in sh!t.
Right on. I've pissed away thousands on the market, but if I walk away from the black jack table with a profit, I'm jubilant!
Right, I understand the risk premium. Just seems excessive given the likelihood that the deal is approved.
I avoid buying individual stocks like the plague and hate relying on technical analysis but thought I made a good buy getting MSFT at under $315 avg cost last week. Turns out I was a little early in my timing buying on Jan 6th but wound up buying more on the continued dip yesterday and it stabilized today closing at $310 and up $5/sh on the day.
Stock is down from high of $350 so I feel like a 10% “discount” off the high is a deal I can’t resist…given that it is Microsoft after all.
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+1
I only dabble with stocks. Vast, vast majority of our investments are funds and etfs. Still, sometimes you just can't pass up on a great buy!
Couldn’t find any bad news on the company…future earnings estimates look good (and they’ve been beating estimates consistently) plus even Cramer was talking them up last week and I noticed a few other tv analysts agree with him. So there are likely many MSFT “hodlers” out there.
And microsoft is held in pretty much 85% of all ETFs/Funds with a high percentage too
Last I checked my account was around 2PM, went home, watched some haltime on dvr, everything in the red, I was down 1.2ish%.
Checked again around 4:30, and I'm in the green.
The market just continues to prove resilient. Yes there are interest rates headwinds, QT as well, the high flyers continue to give back, but there is still too much money out there and no where else but stocks to put it.
I wonder if we don't continue to see an orderly rotation as opposed to a significant sell off and reset.
Any hint of good news or "less bad" news and this market is going to explode. I have more cash ready to roll. These buying opportunities don't come along often!
You must earn a lot to have so much cash on hand all the time. What happened to "its better to be in the market than time the market"?
The key is to live below your means. :)
As mentioned below, sold my crypto profit to help fund this new stock account.
Good watch. As per Mr. Wonderful, there is no other place to put your money to out grow inflation.
.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEEcEGIGzgs&list=WL&index=21
There might be some opportunities, but some stocks may not have fully corrected. Certainly many stocks have been pounded, and there might be opportunities. A third (36%) of Nasdaq stocks have dropped 50% or more, but the overall Nasdaq is only down 9% from its high. An article in “The Street” notes that when there are that many stocks down over 50%, the overall Nasdaq drop would be over 20%. I wish I had some conviction at this point, but I am concerned there could be more pain. I will continue to carefully buy the dip in some stocks, but not convinced it’s time to pile money in.
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Big tech and semis are holding up extremely well. Obviously, spec tech got destroyed. My thoughts are the following:
Big Tech & Semis - It's go time for adding to positions. Sure, be smart since some have gone down more that others. Will there be more dips? Probably, but this money is well spent at these levels. These companies are crushing performance and will continue to lead the way for the next decade.
Spec Tech - Everything got obliterated, but there are some companies that have a path to profitability and will eventually join the ranks of Big Tech. Which ones? No idea. LOL! However, they exist and buying now would be like buying AMZN after it cratered in the early 2000s. So don't dismiss all of these, do some homework and take a chance on a possible gem or two.
Of course living below your means is the obvious answer. As one income, I think I do pretty well. I Budget extremely well and put away close to 30% yearly of what I earn towards savings/investments which is probably higher than most people.
That said, the goal of brokerage/IRA/401k is to keep that money invested in the market rather than trying to time it. Only way cash should be coming and going is if you sell a position or new cash flows to these accounts. I only mention this as I know some people fully tapped into investments without any cash on the sidelines(outside savings account) and then if the market turns down they are stuck bc they can’t dollar cost avg or they are forced to sell for a loss if they need cash.
depending on the portfolio I keep cash in the sidelines for further investment. Overall close to 15% to DCA or pickup something long term.
To be honest, we have a large cash/CD reserve as well as plenty of savings with each paycheck (which is after a maxed 401k). So cash is available when needed. We just did our max backdoor Roth contributions for 2022 to take advantage of this dip. We normally make month deposits to our brokerage account, but can adjust if the opportunity is attractive.
Not overly timely as the most recent quote is from Nov, and at this point, his schtick is almost comical, but he's "legendary" I guess.
I do like #5.
I assume "the street" is talking historically?
I mention it above, but I wonder about this impending correction, unless inflation gets to crisis mode and people need to pull money from the market to supplement their day to day, I'm not sure it happens.
Does it continue to rotate so that the overall S&P takes a hit but the energy sector jumps? Or value like like VIAC and T jump? That makes sense to me. But where is the money going otherwise?
The ARKK type stocks which have deservedly been hammered, will reach a point, at least some of them, where they become strong buys again. I think PINS fits that bill which I recently bought, SNAP is one that I'm watching. Both could come down a bit more, moreso the latter, but if you bought right now, you'd probably be looking pretty good in 3 years.
Professional bears make me laugh. They have been predicting the mother of all crashes since 2015. For all the whining about the past 2 months, I think the S&P is literally 2% off its ATH. LOL!
See sig below:
I watched a CNBC chip and the guest recommended a barbell approach to 2022.....one side big tech, the other side value and dividend stocks.
Very reasonable advice.
Another video.....buy the crap out of big tech. Inflation may break sooner than expected.
.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAg_FXokypo&list=WL&index=18
BOOM! Most important takeaway:
But do interest rate increases translate into a weaker stock market?
As it turns out, during so-called rate-hike cycles, which we seem set to enter into as early as March, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly.
I mentioned this is a past post:
The last time rates started to be consistently hiked was in 2017 and the market, including tech, boomed. It wasn't until late 2018 when the market said enough and freaked out with a temp correction. We are a long, long way off from that time. The market just needs a little time to get comfortable with the new normal:
Rates since 2008 global economic downturn
Dec 16, 2008 — 0.0–0.25
Dec 16, 2015 — 0.25–0.50
Dec 14, 2016 — 0.50–0.75 - Market and Tech Boomed during this time period
Mar 15, 2017 — 0.75–1.00
Jun 14, 2017 — 1.00–1.25
Dec 13, 2017 — 1.25–1.50
Mar 21, 2018 — 1.50–1.75
Jun 13, 2018 — 1.75–2.00
Sep 26, 2018 — 2.00–2.25
Dec 19, 2018 — 2.25–2.50
Jul 31, 2019 — 2.00–2.25
Sep 18, 2019 — 1.75–2.00
Oct 30, 2019 — 1.50–1.75
Mar 3, 2020 — 1.00–1.25
Mar 15, 2020 — 0.00–0.25
LOL!
You said something about Mr. Wonderful. He was on CNBC and sounding pretty bullish about 2022. Stocks are still the only game in town.
Starting at the 2 min mark:
.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEEcEGIGzgs&list=WL&index=2
We was also bullish about the European market. That's it from Mr. Wonderful!
Ha, yeah that's the one.
I'll look to see if I can find that article.
He did not like Euro banks though. Didn't like US banks, no growth, disliked Euro banks even more.
I have enough of financial/bank exposure in my value funds/etfs, but all US focused. Honestly, I have very limited global exposure. Ex-US never seems to match US returns over the long run. Downside are normally worse and the upsides aren't as good, so what's the point? Obviously, there may be some shorter-term opportunities, but my shorter-term account is focused on undervalued tech.
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