ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Stock and Investment Talk


Premium of 45% MSFT is paying. 95/share 68.7 billion. 3 billion breakup fee if it doesn't go through.
Bought ATVI a couple months back as I thought it look pretty cheap. Obviously MSFT did too.

Sold it at $90 in premarket bought it back at 82.60 in the mid day.

So I was bludgeoned pretty good today, but at least I got one good trade out of it.
 
Nice pop for SOFI, but the stock may still trend down for a bit:

Own this one too. Far too much of it actually. Have some calls out on it, but bought most of that back in the past couple trading days as the stock tanked. So hopefully this price holds till morning(or better yet goes up even more) and I'll some more calls tomorrow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Proof that Bill Ackman is scam artist. Fear and short = pump and dump in reverse. Good watch. Don't believe the financial fear porn:

 
That makes no sense. If you are buying this in your “short term portfolio”, then you better learn how to trade technical levels.
My definition of short-term doesn't mean your definition of short-term, so you are incorrect. Also, I try to normally say "shorter-term" as compared to my buy and long hold POV.
 
Proof that Bill Ackman is scam artist. Fear and short = pump and dump in reverse. Good watch. Don't believe the financial fear porn:

First of all, I think the person narrating the video missed the point of Ackman’s statement. Second of all, he will come on CNBC and announce the market crashing after he has shorted the market. He isn’t going to wait for the market to drop and then short it. “Don’t hate the player, hate the game”. The CNBC guy should have clearly asked Ackman if he had shorted the market before, during and after the interview.
 
My definition of short-term doesn't mean your definition of short-term, so you are incorrect. Also, I try to normally say "shorter-term" as compared to my buy and long hold POV.
Regardless of your definition of short term, IMO buying AAPL at $170 is not a right move. There are likely to be much better buying opportunities coming up.
 
First of all, I think the person narrating the video missed the point of Ackman’s statement. Second of all, he will come on CNBC and announce the market crashing after he has shorted the market. He isn’t going to wait for the market to drop and then short it. “Don’t hate the player, hate the game”. The CNBC guy should have clearly asked Ackman if he had shorted the market before, during and after the interview.
If you are okay with fear and short, then don't whine about pump and dump. It's the same exact thing.
 
Regardless of your definition of short term, IMO buying AAPL at $170 is not a right move. There are likely to be much better buying opportunities coming up.
You seem to always think that a better buying opportunity is coming. LOL! This POV has been wrong for years.
 
If you are okay with fear and short, then don't whine about pump and dump. It's the same exact thing.
I don't whine about pump and dump. In this case, Ackman shorted and then relayed his fears. Look, if people are stupid enough to get their stock picks from CNBC guests then they deserve to lose money.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUDead
You seem to always think that a better buying opportunity is coming. LOL! This POV has been wrong for years.
I don't think you have a full understanding of "short term trading" or what I have been telling you for the past 2 years. The market is always full of opportunities for short term trading which most people would define as equities that are held under 1 year. That has been the case during bull markets and certainly during bear markets. I told you guys in September/October that a pullback was coming in the next 3 months (as it did). That does not mean that you should sell all your stocks and sit on cash. Smart trader would position the portfolio with put options, shorts on high flying stocks. I told you in December to put stocks in high dividend and high cash flow stocks (not cash). This has been a very profitable trade for me this year. If you understand technicals and understand enough of the fundamentals, you will do a much better job of succeeding in short term trading. At the very least you should understand the 50 and 200 day moving average on a 2 year chart of AAPL. Don't buy just because AAPl is down $10 from all time highs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: redking
UL with a 5% bounce to about 49 and change in the premarket. Hopefully it holds through the open and the day. May get out of some of this position quicker than I expected.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
I don't think you have a full understanding of "short term trading" or what I have been telling you for the past 2 years. The market is always full of opportunities for short term trading which most people would define as equities that are held under 1 year. That has been the case during bull markets and certainly during bear markets. I told you guys in September/October that a pullback was coming in the next 3 months (as it did). That does not mean that you should sell all your stocks and sit on cash. Smart trader would position the portfolio with put options, shorts on high flying stocks. I told you in December to put stocks in high dividend and high cash flow stocks (not cash). This has been a very profitable trade for me this year. If you understand technicals and understand enough of the fundamentals, you will do a much better job of succeeding in short term trading. At the very least you should understand the 50 and 200 day moving average on a 2 year chart of AAPL. Don't buy just because AAPl is down $10 from all time highs.
Once again, our definitions are different. Not interested in what you are talking about. Don't have the time to devote to technical trading. I described my objective and rationale for this account a few days ago.
 
So buy Sony?

Or maybe buy Unity? As I'm sure Sony is now looking to keep pace with MSFT and add to it's game making/metaverse capabilities.
 
So buy Sony?

Or maybe buy Unity? As I'm sure Sony is now looking to keep pace with MSFT and add to it's game making/metaverse capabilities.
As usual, seems like an overreaction by emotional people.

FYI - Morningstar lists Sony as slightly undervalued prior to this dump.
 
PTON should have never gone public. I don't understand the appeal to investors. The money making point is the subscription which relies on the trainers to put up compelling videos. Can't someone like NordicTrack, etc. just do the same. I don't think Peleton hires its own trainers.
The value in Peloton is the large number of monthly subscriptions providing a steady stream of cash. They absolutely do employ their own trainers, all the classes are proprietary. Users have developed connections with those trainers. First mover and brand loyalty. I love the platform. Doubt that I will ever return to paying for a monthly gym membership. No doubt that competition has increased. As Covid dies down, more people will return to gyms but will most likely retain their Peloton membership as it is modest, especially if they purchased the bike or tread. Would seem to be an attractive acquisition target given its current market valuation.
 
Big time crushed!

Glad I didn’t wait for the drop to the 200 day moving average for MSFT. I did see that “Wall St” puts a 60% chance on the deal ever closing. To me that is basically a 100% chance then based on recent history.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Once again, our definitions are different. Not interested in what you are talking about. Don't have the time to devote to technical trading. I described my objective and rationale for this account a few days ago.
It is now clear why your returns don't ever beat the S&P 500.
 
This is as silly as what a Josh Brown - Pete Najarian fight would be.
You are right. No need to argue. If he gets it, then he get it. If not then his loss. I tried to tell him. Look at the chart. Better entry point for AAPL will be between $145-160. $170 and $165 is too high. For his sake, hopefully he will learn.
 
I just bought some at 46.10. There is some support in this 45-46 area give or take. More around 42. Think it will be a longer term hold and willing to buy more if it goes down more. If the deal happens at a premium price, I'm willing to deal with that outcome. I think a lot has been priced in today though. If they don't end up doing the deal then it could bounce right back.
Sold half of my position at 50.90. Think there could be some resistance in this 50-52 area so I figure sell around the midway point. I can't complain about such a quick bounce and return. Will see if the rest can get up to the mid 50s, maybe even high 50s-60 over some time. I'm comfortable holding a name like Unilever. If that news comes to fruition or more rumors come out it could tank again.
 
Peleton news. Not a great sign...
I think the company is in trouble and I never considered buying it. The sale by insiders, though, was part of a 10b5-1 that schedules sales a predetermined number of shares at predetermined dates. Not that that changes the poor outlook for the company…
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
You are right. No need to argue. If he gets it, then he get it. If not then his loss. I tried to tell him. Look at the chart. Better entry point for AAPL will be between $145-160. $170 and $165 is too high. For his sake, hopefully he will learn.
200 day is 147 for AAPL so I see what you are saying. However the NASDAQ has already broken through the 200 day moving average and there is no guarantee AAPL ever dips that low barring unforeseen bad news. There isn’t anything necessarily magical about what prices were back in September I guess would be the point…being fully aware that 200 day is widely used however.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20 and RU-05
A guy from MAI investment capital who was a big ATVI bull thinks the closing of that deal will with MSFT could take a year and a half, and thus the spread between current stock price and agreed upon sale price is reasonable. Said they were weighing their options.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
200 day is 147 for AAPL so I see what you are saying. However the NASDAQ has already broken through the 200 day moving average and there is no guarantee AAPL ever dips that low barring unforeseen bad news. There isn’t anything necessarily magical about what prices were back in September I guess would be the point…being fully aware that 200 day is widely used however.
Ya, if you really want to add to AAPL you don't wait till it hits the 200 day as it may not do so anytime soon, and when it does that 200 day could be considerably higher than where it now is.

Looks like T2K was willing to DCA in $5 dollar stock price increments if AAPL were to drop.

Sounds like a fine strategy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
Ya, if you really want to add to AAPL you don't wait till it hits the 200 day as it may not do so anytime soon, and when it does that 200 day could be considerably higher than where it now is.

Looks like T2K was willing to DCA in $5 dollar stock price increments if AAPL were to drop.

Sounds like a fine strategy.
For me, AAPL is a good company but doesn't mean I'll buy/trade it at any price. It's hovering at the 50DMA right now, last time it breached that was September 2021. It could have some support here. It's trading at 30 times, so I don't consider that particularly cheap. It's had moves down of 10, 13, 20, 25 percent over the last 18 months. It's currently about 8-9% down off the highs. It's not particularly oversold on any longer term basis, not too much either on shorter term basis. It has support in the 155ish area before the 200DMA. A 20% move down off the highs would also put you around the 200DMA.

I have the stock from long ago as part of buy/hold stocks I own but as a trade or to start position, this isn't particularly an attractive area IMO. I've said before I don't have FOMO. If it were to turn around and go up so be it. It wouldn't be the first time it happened to me. I have to be comfortable with where I buy something and be willing to own at that price if necessary.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
As usual, seems like an overreaction by emotional people.

FYI - Morningstar lists Sony as slightly undervalued prior to this dump.
Even with the recent drop it still sell's at a higher P/E than it's pre covid levels.

The drop peaked my interest, and maybe there is a couple % rebound day somewhere(didn't get that today though, down another 3.6%) but nah. Much more interesting options out there imo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
For me, AAPL is a good company but doesn't mean I'll buy/trade it at any price. It's hovering at the 50DMA right now, last time it breached that was September 2021. It could have some support here. It's trading at 30 times, so I don't consider that particularly cheap. It's had moves down of 10, 13, 20, 25 percent over the last 18 months. It's currently about 8-9% down off the highs. It's not particularly oversold on any longer term basis, not too much either on shorter term basis. It has support in the 155ish area before the 200DMA. A 20% move down off the highs would also put you around the 200DMA.

I have the stock from long ago as part of buy/hold stocks I own but as a trade or to start position, this isn't particularly an attractive area IMO. I've said before I don't have FOMO. If it were to turn around and go up so be it. It wouldn't be the first time it happened to me. I have to be comfortable with where I buy something and be willing to own at that price if necessary.
What do you make of AAPL holding up much better then the other mega caps of late? Good sign, or potential for catch up to the downside?

Edit: I don't own, and not really looking to buy, just curious as to what people make of aapl and how that relates to the market.
 
How bout F?

Stock had doubled since Sept before todays drop. Was the move to the upside too much, and is this downside move enough?
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT