I don't think this is exactly proportional, but definitely correlated (regarding index funds). I believe it still depends on what is being bought.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Yea they started selling as the shares ramped up at 80 and most of the sales were over 100. I think they're smart enough to know the growth rate was unsustainable. They stopped scheduled selling in 2021 just before they slashed their forecasts. To me that's, you've gotten your money don't make waves and make it look bad with additional stock sales just before you're about to slash sales projections. Executives and founders have lots of shares and it's very unusual that any ever sell all or any significant stake. That would be another flag to call attention to yourself. Sell enough to cash in but not enough to raise any flags. Still holding a sizeable amount of stock/options doesn't mean much imo. Unlike drug companies, where I'm often skeptical, I don't think these guys did anything illegal. They used some common sense.
It's kind of logical if you think about it. The pandemic supercharged all these kind of things but eventually it was going to wear off. It's not a sustainable growth rate especially at a premium price. The product can be great but that's besides the point.
From the article:
Although the plan called for selling up to 2.4 million shares through October 2022, Foley notified the board that he had terminated the selling plan on Aug. 30, 2021, after selling a total of 1 million shares. No reason was given for the termination, but on Nov. 4, 2021, the company slashed its sales forecast and the shares tumbled.
Peloton insiders sold nearly $500 million in stock before its big drop, SEC filings show
The wave of insider selling started when the stock surged past $80 in the fall of 2020, and gained momentum in 2021 as it held above $100, SEC filings show.
While you'll see people call it "an iPad attached to a bike" in more and more places, they still have a good name and an almost cult-like following. You wonder if the are a candidate to be acquired.Yea they started selling as the shares ramped up at 80 and most of the sales were over 100. I think they're smart enough to know the growth rate was unsustainable. They stopped scheduled selling in 2021 just before they slashed their forecasts. To me that's, you've gotten your money don't make waves and make it look bad with additional stock sales just before you're about to slash sales projections. Executives and founders have lots of shares and it's very unusual that any ever sell all or any significant stake. That would be another flag to call attention to yourself. Sell enough to cash in but not enough to raise any flags. Still holding a sizeable amount of stock/options doesn't mean much imo. Unlike drug companies, where I'm often skeptical, I don't think these guys did anything illegal. They used some common sense.
It's kind of logical if you think about it. The pandemic supercharged all these kind of things but eventually it was going to wear off. It's not a sustainable growth rate especially at a premium price. The product can be great but that's besides the point.
From the article:
Although the plan called for selling up to 2.4 million shares through October 2022, Foley notified the board that he had terminated the selling plan on Aug. 30, 2021, after selling a total of 1 million shares. No reason was given for the termination, but on Nov. 4, 2021, the company slashed its sales forecast and the shares tumbled.
Peloton insiders sold nearly $500 million in stock before its big drop, SEC filings show
The wave of insider selling started when the stock surged past $80 in the fall of 2020, and gained momentum in 2021 as it held above $100, SEC filings show.www.cnbc.com
Apple might buy it out of bankruptcy. Peloton will not make it in its current structure. The use of home exercise equipment always slows down and then declines. People are itching to get out of the house. It’s over! Essentially, if you haven’t bought one by now, you’re unlikely to buy one. That’s why there is a lot of inventory sitting around.
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I can see AAPL buying it but market cap needs to decrease more before AAPL would consider buying it.
As I recently mentioned, Peloton has a few good products and services, but not a good company. It's not enough. It should be wrapped into a sports equipment portfolio. I guess AAPL can buy it and create a service that is adaptable for any type of sports equipment.
That's possible and like mentioned, Apple could be a suitor. I can't think of anyone else though, maybe Google since they bought FitBit? Two things I mentioned before in this thread. Apple doesn't have a history of doing big deals (3 billion for Beats is their largest) and they also like to do things on their own (AppleTV+ vs a possible Netflix acquisition many years ago or Apple watch vs FitBit). Right now market cap of PTON after the drop is 8 billion. A drop in the bucket considering the cash on hand Apple has but I still don't think they would buy it for that price or any premium to that price. I agree with the poster above who said it would probably need to drop more. I could envision an Apple acquisition but I'd still probably lean towards skeptical.
You make excellent points. PTON would definitely fit well with AAPL push into health and fitness. They need something to link with their apple watch. $8B market cap would mean that AAPL would have to pay $10-11B to buy the company. Even though AAPL has enough money to easily buy a company like this, they have always been hesitant to make big purchases. That could always change. I could see AAPL buying it for $6-8B if the market cap falls another 33-50%.
BTW, the market has taken another major downturn into closing today which tells me that people are selling the rips instead of buying the dips. It does not feel like we are near the bottom of this downturn.
Earnings beat for NLFX. Never got into this one. Lots of competition in the streaming world.
www.cnbc.com
Netflix shares fall 20% on slowing subscriber growth
Netflix reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.
Silly overreaction by the market. They beat the street estimate on new subscribers. But as I mentioned above, lots and lots of competition in the streaming space. Way too much.
I actually had some good timing today. Got out of several positions this morning so I can have more cash to build positions in my highest conviction stocks. Worked out well for once! LOL.
Slowing subscriber growth despite beating expectations tell me that this market is going to be expecting a lot from these high P/E companies. 11% down is a bigger drop than I would expect. Let's see what happens tomorrow. This could just be initial over reaction.
Looks like DIS is taking a hit in sympathy with NFLX earnings. Bought it a little while back at 144.5 and sold at 156..went up close to 160 where I thought there might be resistance but got early to lock in gains. Down 4.5% to about 141 in the afterhours. NFLX down about 12% Competition hurting growth of the streaming services.
Is it an overreaction? This is one of the companies that you have noted (several times) is overvalued.
Yikes!! Now down 15% in after hours (39% off the high)
Beating earnings or key metrics is nice but like I said somewhere above, it's not that you beat it's how much you beat by especially when your valuations are high. Guidance also is important and if competition is hurting their guidance on subscriber growth that's going to hit a stock, especially a high valuation one.
Yes. It beat the street estimate but the street still freaks out? Pure silliness. And yes, you are correct. It's overvalued and I have thought so for a long time.
Wonder if DIS around 137 might not be a bad spot. There is a gap in 2020 that might need closing though and there is firmer support in that 115-120s area if it got there.
If this holds up into tomorrow's trading and especially if there are other companies such as AMZN. etc that suffer the same fate then it could get ugly. Lot's of if's, but that is why you hedge. Keep in mind that AAPL and MSFT are at higher P/E's relative to their past and they could potentially fall if they don't beat handily and guide higher.
I've said something similar above. Everyone talks about multiple compression of the high flyers but that doesn't mean there can't be some multiple compression of some old tech as well, just to a lesser degree, that are trading above their historical PEs.
Unfortunately, I'm just Joe Retail like I've said above. I'm pretty conservative in how I trade and I consider my knowledge base as small in general let alone to do hedging with options. I know the basics but if you get into spreads and straddles and such it's beyond me because I haven't read enough on it. Technicals and candlestick patterns etc...I've read/researched over years of trading but never upped my knowledge on options strategies etc..
Any compression of big tech will be very temporary. Gotta buy and take advantage of the dip. At the end of the day, nothing has changed. For the vast majority of people, there is no other place to put money for good returns. It's the stock market or under the mattress. Any fed actions over the next 2 years won't come close to changing this.
Also, watch what happens once inflation starts to dip sooner than expected. Powell is banging the drum because Biden told him to do so. Fed actions are going to be much lighter than the rhetoric suggests.
Couldn’t agree with you more especially the first paragraph. As for the second paragraph, the derivative market is where I generate a good portion of alpha in my portfolio. Trading in the derivative market requires a lot of practice. It is nearly impossible to master that art by just reading books and understanding the underlying math. No one will ever time the market perfectly on every single occasion. Anyone who speaks in absolute terms about the stock market, fed, etc is probably talking out of their ass or has a time machine.
Given the Q's typically outperform the S&P, but have underperformed more recently, if you're going to play these leveraged ETF's that would probably be the better play.
How do these type funds work anyways?
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I like the way you think! Seriously, I am eyeing that bizatch. Maybe I throw a few hundred in TQQQ for fun.
Is that important to know? LOL.
Definitely better to play leverage on the QQQ than the S&P due to the recent drop. It really is intriguing.
I have consolidated my positions to my favorites, got plenty cash in the account ready to go. Buying more GOOGL, AMZN, FB, MSFT, NDVA, and ENPH on any further weakness. Prepared for earnings and to spin the wheel! Should be fun.
One last comment on NFLX. Very obvious for those paying attention to streaming services.
www.cnbc.com
Netflix quietly admits streaming competition is eating into growth
Netflix added a line in its quarterly shareholder letter acknowledging streaming competition is affecting its "marginal growth."
Anyone considers buying $FNGU? Man I wish they can replace stupid Chinese stocks with MSFT and ADBE.
I love the spirit, and I want it to be the case —but Cramer is also the same guy who tweeted out to everyone to buy Netflix at $597 a share on January 3rd, 2022
The guy’s an entertainer, who often has more bad reads than good ones. Especially this year
The guy is way more good than bad. However, when you are on the air for a few hours a day, you are bound to make bad calls all the time. That's the nature of the business.
I never viewed Cramer as gospel, but instead used him for ideas and trends. The fact is that most analysts or so-called financial experts seem to be wrong as much as they are right.
I like hearing about general market trends, movements, sectors, and future events more than buy/sells on individual stocks. Cramer is pretty good on these topics.
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