OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

market has no relationship to earnings or the economy just turbo boost by low interest rates and government buying corporate bonds.

I don't think this is true. Tech stocks are flying because they had great quarters and are poised to thrive in a post covid environment. Similar for home improvement. Similar for big box stores that were able to accommodate shoppers. Meanwhile airlines and cruises are 50% off their pre covid levels. Banks are still way off their highs(this despite strong quarters for many). Reit's are rightfully in the tank.

It's true the tech stocks are on turbo boost, I think the market is def top heavy, and yesterday was only a small step towards equilibrium, but it is not like there are high flying stocks of companies that are currently tanking.

 

[BigWill]

So 8.4% unemployment is good?

BETTER than the 20 % numbers that the TDS forecasters want....

 

[RU-05]

BETTER than the 20 % numbers that the TDS forecasters want....

The TDS folks are pretty irrelevant in this discussion.

 

[T2Kplus10]

The market will keep going up and up. Plan accordingly:

Powell says low interest rates could last for years

Interest rates are likely to stay low for years as the economy fights its way back from the coronavirus pandemic, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks published Friday afternoon.

www.cnbc.com

 

[tom1944]

The market will keep going up and up. Plan accordingly:

Powell says low interest rates could last for years

Interest rates are likely to stay low for years as the economy fights its way back from the coronavirus pandemic, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks published Friday afternoon.

www.cnbc.com

What percentage of your assets are in cash or cash equivalents?

 

[BigWill]

The TDS folks are pretty irrelevant in this discussion.

Which is why you should be quiet in this chat about the economic miracle that President Trump is going to accomplish not ONCE but TWICE in 4 years.

 

[T2Kplus10]

What percentage of your assets are in cash or cash equivalents?

Already discussed allocations in this thread, look it up.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Mortgages are ripping it:

Mortgage demand from homebuyers surges 40% from a year ago amid sales spree

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

Which is why you should be quiet in this chat about the economic miracle that President Trump is going to accomplish not ONCE but TWICE in 4 years.

Stocks and Investment Talk is the name of the thread so I agree we all should keep the politics out of this chat.

 

[RU-05]

Mortgages are ripping it:

Mortgage demand from homebuyers surges 40% from a year ago amid sales spree

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

www.cnbc.com

Talking head recommended STC which focuses on title insurance. Up 100% from the bottom but only a little above precovid levels. Small cap though so expect volatility.

On the other side of the coin is the toll this(as well as the accompanying protests) will take on cities.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Talking head recommended STC which focuses on title insurance. Up 100% from the bottom but only a little above precovid levels. Small cap though so expect volatility.

On the other side of the coin is the toll this(as well as the accompanying protests) will take on cities.

Cities are being hit hard. Small and mid caps are still lagging the broader market.

 

[rutgersdave]

Cities are being hit hard. Small and mid caps are still lagging the broader market.

I hope the market continues to recover especially the Tech stocks. I think my gamble might pay off big.

 

[Caliknight]

Simply untrue. Earning call season ended weeks ago and yet you sold on Wed the day before a selloff? Color me skeptical.

Doomsday wrong again. It’s uncanny.

 

[rutgersdave]

Doomsday wrong again. It’s uncanny.

Making big money today.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Making big money today.

 

[Caliknight]

Making big money today.

LOL

 

[RU-05]

I hope the market continues to recover especially the Tech stocks. I think my gamble might pay off big.

Recover? I think it would be more accurate to say you hope they continue on their run. The dip was nothing in the overall trend.

Today is certainly a bit of a bounce back but I'm thinking the big run is over. At least in the short term. If we get another good day tomorrow I'll do what I should have done last week and that is trim back on some of the huge Covid gainers.

 

[rutgersdave]

Recover? I think it would be more accurate to say you hope they continue on their run. The dip was nothing in the overall trend.

Today is certainly a bit of a bounce back but I'm thinking the big run is over. At least in the short term. If we get another good day tomorrow I'll do what I should have done last week and that is trim back on some of the huge Covid gainers.

No, I just want it to go back to their 52 week high. Most of the high techs went down 10-12% and will be happy with a 50% recover.

 

[RU-05]

Trimmed a bit on DKNG, MHH and MTBC which were up 10%, 7% and 7% on the day respectively.

 

[RU-05]

I've mentioned them before but Intel has a p/e of 9x, an eps of 5.4, and a price to book of 2.54.

You don't see the growth as you'll see in other tech stocks, but those #'s above look more like a utility #'s then a tech company.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Trimmed a bit on DKNG, MHH and MTBC which were up 10%, 7% and 7% on the day respectively.

Routine buying day today, nice discounts to be had.

 

[RU-05]

Routine buying day today, nice discounts to be had.

Discounts based on all time highs? Those might not be discounts.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Discounts based on all time highs? Those might not be discounts.

MEGA discounts, the market will be at new record highs soon.

 

[RU-05]

MEGA discounts, the market will be at new record highs soon.

Fingers crossed.

 

[RU-05]

Why do I keep seeing Hindenburg in the headlines of articles that proceed a significant drop in a stocks price.

A short seller shouldn't have the ability to influence a stock in this manner. I guess they know the line which they can't cross but it reeks of price manipulation.

The companies name is almost comical.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Why do I keep seeing Hindenburg in the headlines of articles that proceed a significant drop in a stocks price.

A short seller shouldn't have the ability to influence a stock in this manner. I guess they know the line which they can't cross but it reeks of price manipulation.

The companies name is almost comical.

If an investor/trader is influenced by that type of “noise” they need to really exercise caution in their investing. It’s scarey to me that so many relatively new investors/traders are often using leverage and options without fully understanding what they are doing (not saying you fall into that category). The market since the low of March 23 is completely atypical. I’m bullish long-term but not smart enough to call market tops and bottoms. Having gone through October ‘87, the dot com crash, 2008-9, 2018, and COVID-19, I don’t get too excited by short term swings and pretty much stay with my own personal investment plan. That’s not to say I don’t take profits from time to time but those are generally driven by my asset allocation plan/bands, or what I see to be a substantive change in a company or industry. Good luck to all!

 

[T2Kplus10]

Fingers crossed.

Where else are you going to put your money for good returns? Until this changes, the market will keep going up.

 

[RU-05]

If an investor/trader is influenced by that type of “noise” they need to really exercise caution in their investing. It’s scarey to me that so many relatively new investors/traders are often using leverage and options without fully understanding what they are doing (not saying you fall into that category). The market since the low of March 23 is completely atypical. I’m bullish long-term but not smart enough to call market tops and bottoms. Having gone through October ‘87, the dot com crash, 2008-9, 2018, and COVID-19, I don’t get too excited by short term swings and pretty much stay with my own personal investment plan. That’s not to say I don’t take profits from time to time but those are generally driven by my asset allocation plan/bands, or what I see to be a substantive change in a company or industry. Good luck to all!

A lot of people must be influenced by it as the subject of Hindenburg's analysis, if we want to call it that, consistently tank on the news.

NKLA is down nearly 10% after Hindenburg's latest report. I get NKLA has been looked at as having a shaky foundation, but I thought the deal with GM provided a fair amount of validity, I would think that deal would carry more weight then a report from a short seller.

GM, can't get much more established then that is also down on the report.

 

[RU-05]

Where else are you going to put your money for good returns? Until this changes, the market will keep going up.

I fully understand that argument, but there is a limit to that action. At some point the money dries up. Not saying we are at that point, but we might be. In the short term at least.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I fully understand that argument, but there is a limit to that action. At some point the money dries up. Not saying we are at that point, but we might be. In the short term at least.

Perhaps, but there is a long way to go for that.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Gotta keep this thread going! :)

Homebuilder sentiment soars to record high, but lumber prices raise a red flag

Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes rose in September to the highest reading in the NAHB/Wells Fargo index's 35-year history.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

Gotta keep this thread going! :)

Homebuilder sentiment soars to record high, but lumber prices raise a red flag

Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes rose in September to the highest reading in the NAHB/Wells Fargo index's 35-year history.

www.cnbc.com

Was considering a lumber play.

WY which was down to around $15 in the covid dip is back around it's precovid level of $28. But if you look back to 2018 they were at $36. So there should be some room to run there.

Now what effect do the fires have I'm not sure.

As far as other home building plays I have Home Depot, Azek, and FCX which is a copper mining company. I'm up on HD and FCX, though down a little on Azek as they dropped on the issuance of new stock. Prob a decent time to buy in on the latter.

 

[RU-05]

Trimmed a bit on DKNG, MHH and MTBC which were up 10%, 7% and 7% on the day respectively.

DKNG, which dipped a tiny bit just after this trade is flying since, off of all sorts of news, another example of why I should just stay in a position and not try to be too cute on stocks which I feel have big long term upside.

 

[mdk01]

About 2 weeks ago I bought some BETZ, which is an EFT for online gambling companies. I'm figuring that with the looming state budget issues we're going to see a whole lot more states legalize sports betting. Initially went down but now I'm slightly ahead. Looking at it as a long term play and not a quick scalp.

 

[RU-05]

About 2 weeks ago I bought some BETZ, which is an EFT for online gambling companies. I'm figuring that with the looming state budget issues we're going to see a whole lot more states legalize spots betting. Initially went down but now I'm slightly ahead. Looking at it as a long term play and not a quick scalp.

Ya one concern I have for DKNG is the competition, you have the Penn/Barstool collaboration, you have the Ceasers/William Hill Collaboration, you have Fan Duel you have MGM getting into the online gaming. So who know who proves to be top dog?

Now DKNG being established and it's collaboration with ESPN might prove to be best in class, so BETZ might not have quite that upside, but I think it takes a clear winner, ie online gaming/betting, without the concern of competition. That is a solid play. I might buy in on that as well.

 

[RU-05]

Snow IPO today.

Was thought they would set price at $80ish.

Then they set price at $120.

Looks like it will open at $240.

Sounds like the valuation is very high, but there is just an immense amount of interest in this. I could see this one going on a Tesla run where the stock price appears to have no connection to the current fundamentals.

 

[mdk01]

Snow IPO today.

Was thought they would set price at $80ish.

Then they set price at $120.

Looks like it will open at $240.

Sounds like the valuation is very high, but there is just an immense amount of interest in this. I could see this one going on a Tesla run where the stock price appears to have no connection to the current fundamentals.

Shades of the dot com bubble.

 

[RU-05]

Shades of the dot com bubble.

I agree there are shades of that.

But in this run most of these companies are well established businesses that are seeing big earnings growth. Salesforce's recent quarterly earning was up 5x' yoy.

And the ones that are not as of yet generating earnings are seeing big revenue growth. SNOW for instance saw it's revenue grow 150% from jan 2019 to jan 2020. And the quarterlies are showing continued growth at that level.

So are they overvalued? Perhaps, but it's pretty clear that A)lots of these stocks have benefitted from covid and B) Covid has likely sped up the process of moving towards an increasingly digital world.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I agree there are shades of that.

But in this run most of these companies are well established businesses that are seeing big earnings growth. Salesforce's recent quarterly earning was up 5x' yoy.

And the ones that are not as of yet generating earnings are seeing big revenue growth. SNOW for instance saw it's revenue grow 150% from jan 2019 to jan 2020. And the quarterlies are showing continued growth at that level.

So are they overvalued? Perhaps, but it's pretty clear that A)lots of these stocks have benefitted from covid and B) Covid has likely sped up the process of moving towards an increasingly digital world.

+1
Nothing like the dot.com bubble in anyway.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

+1
Nothing like the dot.com bubble in anyway.

The similarities I see are: 1) lots of relatively new investors who have not experienced a downturn, 2) lots of investors getting into margin purchases and options with little experience in either of these spaces, 3) investors getting into “hot” or perceived to become “hot” stocks with little understanding of the company or industry, 4) lots of private equity or other money looking for a home, 5) getting “tips” on stocks from Uber drivers (used to be cab or limo drivers). Having said that, I’m bullish long term and remain with an asset allocation that is considered very aggressive for my age by most.