The entire S&P has been holding up very well to such an extended period of max fear and FUD (which is another reason to be bullish). I think it is only down 12%'ish. I am considering moving VOO in one of our rollover IRAs to SSO to catch 2x of the upcoming movement back to ATHs. Hmm.....
Just brought SPY down 12% for $421.80 but will sell if it rebound but buy more if it goes further down.
Good move! I am going with the 3x ETFs in my fun account, but only willing to go 2x in one of our retirement accounts! I will assess tonight when to pull the trigger on SSO. Likely, I will convert VOO to SSO in several steps. It will become my top holding in this account.
OIH is a weird ETF and shows how out of favor oils stocks are. With oil well above $100, OIH show be 2-3x higher than it is now (based on past history). I dabbled with OIH last year, but XLE provided better returns.
A little more bearish analysts have targets anywhere from 3700-4000 for the S&P. I also see year end targets or 2023 targets anywhere from 4500-5000.
What a mess…how the hell is Amazon back to June 2020 levels…Biden should be addressing the nation daily/weekly because hard to separate fact from fiction.
GS and MS still have the S&P reaching 5200-5300 in 2H 2022. I agree with this.
Current is for traders. Long holders stick to the plan and just buy more during temporary dips.
Don't swim against the current. Ever. You will lose. Always. My point: go with the flow, at least until the current subsides. At that point, swim where you want, at whatever pace and at whatever distance you wish.
Lots of fiction going on.
Nope. Stick to the plan. Worked perfectly in 2008/2009 and 2020. F the short term current. It always changes.
I’m not suggesting to abandon the long term plan but this crisis presents geopolitical risks I know I’ve never seen in my lifetime. COVID was a one-trick pony. This crisis is a whole different animal. Inflation and supply chain were already a problem and the Fed has some tough decisions to make if oil continues to go up.
I’ll buy SH when I sell SPY expecting market to go tomorrow. I still have a huge cash balance.
I’ve got plenty of cash too…times like this I’m happy I didn’t deploy it too aggressively. Been nibbling the whole way down but staring at a lot of red. Need market capitulation ASAP.
The "crisis" is based on fear, not facts. It will be over soon, one way or another. Don't be on the sidelines when it does end.
I brought small amount of NVDA and ADBE but sold them a couple of days ago which was smart since they went down 20-30 since seeing the red growing. I reduce my MSFT and APPL balances couple of days ago so that the losses are acceptable again a smart move. Sold all my UNH today since near its ATH.
Way too conservative. Going to miss out again with that strategy. Added to positions across the board with both brokerage accounts, couldn't pass this up.
The Fed erred. Big time. Should have tapered and then initiated raising rates months ago. Now, with this new dynamic, lots of turmoil, and recession ahead. Hard to play catch up. So we assess and adapt, repositioning to best work through it. What's most troubling, though, is the potential lengthy duration of the blight.
We think alike, maybe it’s the years of experience.
I don’t expect the market to bounce back quickly. Less easy money means lower chance of a spring back. Even when a bottom is found, I expect things will linger.
Experience can be biasing with future events. Not all dips are 1999/2000 again.
Be honest. Did you say the same thing in 2018 and 2020? I bet yes to both. And I bet this is a big yes to many investors. Thankfully, you keep buying because at the end of the day we all really know one thing.....
I didn’t think markets would bounce back so quick but I slowly bought what I considered quality names at levels I think are reasonable. Whenever there is a decent pull back that’s what I do. If I’m early, I believe the names I’m in will come back sooner or later and they usually do except for the common stock of financials in the crash.
I find in the odd position of agreeing with you, but definitely do not agree with the indiscriminate buying on most down days. You need to learn the technicals of the market and use options to make money. Volatility is a traders best friend.
2018 was all about the Fed and raising interest rates and getting rid of easy money. We had a 20% dump, Powell learned his lesson, and the market started growing again well before 2020.
Happy we agree. My buying across the board was for one of our main retirement accounts (brokerage). 8 ETFs that we will hold for 15+ years. 95% of our investments are long hold funds and ETFs. Definitely not a trader in anyway. Even our stocks and leveraged ETFs are long holds. Maybe not 15 years, but.....
Damn straight! Now you are learning. :)
Yea and what happened to the market when rates went up…that’s the point. He reversed course later. I don’t think he can reverse course now with inflation. With commodity prices rising, he’s got a tight rope to walk and I’m not sure he can do it.
You only need to experience going from thinking you are retiring at 35 to having 90 percent less assets 6 months later once to realize you never want to go through that again. It also took a long time to get back to break even. Prudent risk management is essential the closer you get to needing to monetize your savings.
Not true. Look at the data. Rates started going up in 2016 and it was early 2017 when it became regular. Stocks and tech BOOMED in 2017 and most of 2018 until rates got to 2.5-2.75% and Powell said rates will keep going up in lockstep. This is when the market said enough and freaked out. Powell backed down and the party started again.
100% in agreement with this. Our plans will change as we approach retirement age.
You are correct. The analogy is not dot.com or the financial crisis. This is a different paradigm. Two factors. First, this war is not transitory. It’s the largest western world invasion since 1942. If all images were black and white, you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference. The ramifications are going to last years unless we see a quick removal of Putin which I pray happens. Secondly, every time oil spiked to these inflation adjusted peaks, a recession followed. I repeat, EVERY time. Wars make strange bedfellows. Who’d of thunk we’d be talking to Venezuela and Iran about oil. No one can accurately predict how long a recession will last in the face of war and high oil prices. At some point the market will be very desirable. Until then it’s buyer beware.
Imagine the market rally if someone takes out Putin…if there is any justice in this world Putin will be removed from it before he kills any more people.
