Yes it is. It's called dollar cost averaging and if you review all the data analyses, it is the best way to invest.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
I’m perfectly educated on DCA and am all for it. It’s just that if a recession and bear market are lengthy, any premature investment will be dead money for a while.
True, but nobody knows what, when, where, and the proper timing until it has passed. I sure as hell don't. DCA is king.
Last edited:
That’s not really how it would go down. Putin being assassinated, especially if it was by someone within the Kremlin, would likely spark a counter coup or even civil war. And that type of civil unrest in the country with the most nukes means peak FUD.
Russia is a very factioned country, it’s not your typical third world strongman dictatorship. Putin himself is much closer to an Erdogan than he is to a Saddam or Assad.
Douglas Macgregor seemed to make more sense than a lot of other talkers on TV (Adam Tooze was another). Too many Chesty Puffbags want to go to war. I heard one guy say Russians "kettle" Ukrainian soldiers (like NYPD does rioters and then blasts) them with artillery etc.
Macgregor says Ukrainian soldiers now mix-in with civilians. He also said Putin didn't go in too hard on initially and that lined-up with what I was seeing. He doesn't like idea of war escalating and thinks Zelensky is a puppet overdoing things. He thinks a neutral post-war Ukraine is best for all sides. Stuart Varney's monocle falls into his soup
www.newstatesman.com
Macgregor says Ukrainian soldiers now mix-in with civilians. He also said Putin didn't go in too hard on initially and that lined-up with what I was seeing. He doesn't like idea of war escalating and thinks Zelensky is a puppet overdoing things. He thinks a neutral post-war Ukraine is best for all sides. Stuart Varney's monocle falls into his soup
The world is at financial war
The freezing of Russia’s central bank reserves has brought conflict to the heart of the international monetary system.
www.newstatesman.com
Last edited:
He raised it 3 times in 2017 and 4 times in 2018 and then reversed course in 2019. Inflation was 2.1% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018. Market started coming down in September of 2018 and fell about 20%. I don't think you see the effect of rising rates right away it takes time, sometimes even years they say. I think maybe 3-4 times fed rate hike cycles didn't lead to recession since the 50s or something like that but every other time sooner or later it did.
I think it shows that it's a hard to thread the needle especially with much higher inflation now. Either you go too far and slow down the economy to bring inflation under control and possibly cause a recession or you don't go far enough and inflation remains elevated quite beyond it's 2% target rate which can also slow down the economy if it's high enough.
These are smart people but they're not infallible. You see what happened in 2018. Famous words by fed chairs "supbrime is contained" and "inflation is transitory" so you can't just assume that they will get it right, maybe he will maybe he won't.
Last edited:
This part I agree with you in the sense that over the long haul usually you'll be okay, at least in quality names IMO. That's why I stick with those when I trade because if I'm somewhat early I'm okay holding names like that for the long haul and usually they come back but that doesn't mean they come back "tomorrow" and it can take time. That's part of why valuation and price matters, I don't just buy indiscriminately.
Last edited:
Venezuelan oil infrastructure is suppose to be lousy and Iranian oil isn't the best to refine I heard, so not sure either or both would make a meaningful dent to a loss of Russian oil. Plus Iranian oil could be on the market in back door ways as well.
But part of me thinks though does Russian oil really go offline, it's all fungible right? If it doesn't go to point A, good chance it'll go to Point B and what was going to point B, may later go to Point A etc..Mind you the whole supply chain and everything is altered and that can cause issues but is the actual supply of oil on the market changed meaningfully longer term?
Sure but who? They always talk about the oligarchs putting pressure on him but that's the not the direction of the flow of power. If he suspects anything they will either be killed or thrown in jail. I think that happened to one of the heads of an energy company awhile back. I mean look at Jack Ma. He's been essentially "disappeared" by Xi, same fashion as Putin does.
Justice would be a little Polonium poisoning for Putin but unfortunately it's unlikely that or anything like it will happen.
Solid earnings by DKS. Not sure the rally will last though as most of them have faded over time.
Dick’s Sporting Goods - The retail stock gained more than 4% in premarket trading after Dick’s released its fourth-quarter results. The quarter beat expectations for adjusted earnings and revenue, according to estimates compiled by Refinitiv. The company said same-store sales grew 5.9%, which was faster than the rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 before the pandemic.
www.cnbc.com
Dick’s Sporting Goods - The retail stock gained more than 4% in premarket trading after Dick’s released its fourth-quarter results. The quarter beat expectations for adjusted earnings and revenue, according to estimates compiled by Refinitiv. The company said same-store sales grew 5.9%, which was faster than the rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 before the pandemic.
Dick's Sporting Goods expects more profit momentum after solid holiday quarter
CEO Lauren Hobart said the company's 2022 outlook establishes a new foundation for the Dick's to build upon in the future.
DKS lost 10 pts yesterday and gaining 5 pts premarket, not much of a win.Solid earnings by DKS. Not sure the rally will last though as most of them have faded over time.
Dick’s Sporting Goods - The retail stock gained more than 4% in premarket trading after Dick’s released its fourth-quarter results. The quarter beat expectations for adjusted earnings and revenue, according to estimates compiled by Refinitiv. The company said same-store sales grew 5.9%, which was faster than the rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 before the pandemic.
Dick's Sporting Goods expects more profit momentum after solid holiday quarter
CEO Lauren Hobart said the company's 2022 outlook establishes a new foundation for the Dick's to build upon in the future.
Just about everything was down yesterday. The point was their earnings were solid to good and that's another retailer demonstrating the consumer has been pretty resilient up to date in the face of inflation. Most of these rallies fade though. I'm wondering if we reached a tipping point now with commodity prices breaking the camel's back.
Most companies continue to rock earnings. 75-80% of S&P companies that reported have beat street expectations. Lots of fear based on emotion, not facts.
Those earnings/results were based on the last quarter. Ukraine has changed everything at least for the short term.
At a combined 3.5% of the world economy, it has mostly changed emotions, not real life business, especially for US companies. Only 1 out of the 500 S&P companies has meaningful exposure to Russia. Phillip Morris. Russians still love to smoke! :)
Soon we can purchase oil from Guyana.
Supposedly they have huge offshore oil fields.
Gas prices are way up, which means less discretionary spending. Have to look at the big picture.
People said the same thing about this quarter....."less discretionary spending". Didn't happen. Job market strong, wages are booming for lower income and hourly workers (who would be most impacted by temporary higher gas prices). Facts still not adding up to justify the fear and emotion going on.
Cramer and Team on some banks:
Has the decline in U.S. banks with zero Russian exposure gone too far? Baird upgrades Bank of America (BAC) to a hold but says Wells Fargo (WFC) and PNC Financial (PNC) look best to add on weakness.
I certainly don’t think most consumers are stressing about gas prices to the point it will take down the economy. But the optics are bad right now when people see $4+ at the pump and the long term driving implications are somewhat unknown. Couldn’t have happened at a worse time as the re-opening is going next level and we are approaching travel season.
The wheat price increases is a major threat to the third and developing world. Remember, the Arab spring was partially driven by high wheat prices in 2011.
If it's sustained I think it will have an effect despite the pretty remarkable resilience of the consumer to date. Recession? I wouldn't rule it out but I wouldn't say for sure either but probably slower growth though. Seeing your bills go up at the grocery store and the pump for a sustained period is bound to have an effect sooner or later. Disposable/discretionary choices could go from this and this to this or this. I think it depends how sustained these very elevated commodity prices remain.
AMZN goes below 2700, MSFT penetrated it's lows from a couple weeks ago.
2500 area which I mentioned awhile ago was the next level I'd look at if this area breaks meaningfully for AMZN.
2500 area which I mentioned awhile ago was the next level I'd look at if this area breaks meaningfully for AMZN.
You are exactly wrong. The price of oil and gas right now is at the pain threshold where people are making choices between driving to work and paying for food. Its called demand destruction and is the end game for the Biden administration to carry out their fantasies of an all electric car world.
If you don't know already this market is going down and going down hard because of this fool in the whitehouse and his sycophant lackeys who are directing him. Biden is so bad that he makes Jimmy Carter look good by comparison.
I went to cash two months ago and have saved hundreds of thousands of potential losses. I knew Biden was going to be an absolute disaster and it is proving true. I will stay in cash until I am convinced the rout is over. I just hope this asshole in the whitehouse didn't start World War III. Good Luck and Go RU!
Food for thought from well respected and renowned economist:
Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse published a note yesterday that will blow your mind. Before I highlight what he said, it is important to understand who Pozsar:
Zoltan Pozsar is a Managing Director and is the Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy based in New York. Prior to joining Credit Suisse in February 2015, Zoltan had a distinguished career in the public sector. During the Great Financial Crisis, Zoltan served at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in charge of market intelligence for securitized credit markets and was the point person on market developments for senior Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury and White House officials throughout crisis. From 2011 to 2012, Zoltan was a visiting scholar at the IMF where he authored a number of papers, framed the Fund’s official position on shadow banking, and consulted G-20 working groups on global macro-financial developments. From 2012 until his arrival at Credit Suisse, he served as a senior adviser to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Essentially, Zoltan Pozsar is the epitome of the insider or establishment, especially when it comes to his views on currencies, financial assets, and markets. In the note, which is titled Bretton Woods III, Pozsar starts off with the following excerpt:
We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.
A crisis is unfolding. A crisis of commodities. Commodities are collateral, and collateral is money, and this crisis is about the rising allure of outside money over inside money. Bretton Woods II was built on inside money, and its foundations crumbled a week ago when the G7 seized Russia’s FX reserves…
Pozsar then went on to explain why people should be concerned about recent commodity price moves:
The aggressor in the geopolitical arena is being punished by sanctions, and sanctions -driven commodity price moves threaten financial stability in the West. Is there enough collateral for margin? Is there enough credit for margin? What happens to commodities futures exchange s if players fail? Are CCPs bulletproof ?
I haven’t seen these topics in the wide offering of Financial Stability Reports, have you? Is the OTC commodity derivatives market the gorilla in the room? The commodities market is much more financialized and leveraged today than it was during the 1973 OPEC supply crisis, and today’s Russian supply crisis is much bigger, much more broad -based, and much more correlated. It’s scarier
Pozsar finished his piece with the following conclusion:
In this instance, price instability (surging and collapsing commodity prices) feeds financial instability: margin calls may trigger the failure of some smaller commodity traders and maybe even some CCPs – the commodity exchanges.
Again, commodity correlations are at 1, which is never a good thing…
The Fed and other central banks will be able to provide liquidity backstops…
…but those will be Band-Aid solutions. The true problem here is not liquidity per se. Liquidity is just a manifestation of a larger problem, which is the Russian-non-Russian commodities basis, which only China will be able to close.
Do you see what I see? Do you see inflation in the West written all over this like I do?
This crisis is not like anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971 – the end of the era of commodity-based money.
When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities.
From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities).
After this war is over, “money” will never be the same again…
…and Bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this.
Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse published a note yesterday that will blow your mind. Before I highlight what he said, it is important to understand who Pozsar:
Zoltan Pozsar is a Managing Director and is the Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy based in New York. Prior to joining Credit Suisse in February 2015, Zoltan had a distinguished career in the public sector. During the Great Financial Crisis, Zoltan served at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in charge of market intelligence for securitized credit markets and was the point person on market developments for senior Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury and White House officials throughout crisis. From 2011 to 2012, Zoltan was a visiting scholar at the IMF where he authored a number of papers, framed the Fund’s official position on shadow banking, and consulted G-20 working groups on global macro-financial developments. From 2012 until his arrival at Credit Suisse, he served as a senior adviser to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Essentially, Zoltan Pozsar is the epitome of the insider or establishment, especially when it comes to his views on currencies, financial assets, and markets. In the note, which is titled Bretton Woods III, Pozsar starts off with the following excerpt:
We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.
A crisis is unfolding. A crisis of commodities. Commodities are collateral, and collateral is money, and this crisis is about the rising allure of outside money over inside money. Bretton Woods II was built on inside money, and its foundations crumbled a week ago when the G7 seized Russia’s FX reserves…
Pozsar then went on to explain why people should be concerned about recent commodity price moves:
The aggressor in the geopolitical arena is being punished by sanctions, and sanctions -driven commodity price moves threaten financial stability in the West. Is there enough collateral for margin? Is there enough credit for margin? What happens to commodities futures exchange s if players fail? Are CCPs bulletproof ?
I haven’t seen these topics in the wide offering of Financial Stability Reports, have you? Is the OTC commodity derivatives market the gorilla in the room? The commodities market is much more financialized and leveraged today than it was during the 1973 OPEC supply crisis, and today’s Russian supply crisis is much bigger, much more broad -based, and much more correlated. It’s scarier
Pozsar finished his piece with the following conclusion:
In this instance, price instability (surging and collapsing commodity prices) feeds financial instability: margin calls may trigger the failure of some smaller commodity traders and maybe even some CCPs – the commodity exchanges.
Again, commodity correlations are at 1, which is never a good thing…
The Fed and other central banks will be able to provide liquidity backstops…
…but those will be Band-Aid solutions. The true problem here is not liquidity per se. Liquidity is just a manifestation of a larger problem, which is the Russian-non-Russian commodities basis, which only China will be able to close.
Do you see what I see? Do you see inflation in the West written all over this like I do?
This crisis is not like anything we have seen since President Nixon took the U.S. dollar off gold in 1971 – the end of the era of commodity-based money.
When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities.
From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities).
After this war is over, “money” will never be the same again…
…and Bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this.
Keep in mind I said “take down the economy” = obviously there will be pain at the pump and consumers will not be happy.
C'mon man this isn't a political thread. Yes we can debate the logic of decisions here but keep the callouts to the CE board.
Bags, The direct actions of the Biden administration is why the market is going down. Cutting the domestic producers ability to drill, stopping the construction of the Keystone pipeline, denying leases on federal lands and I could go on and on about how Biden is directly killing the economy and the stock market. Elections have consequences and we have an imposter in the whitehouse who was installed not elected. Regardless of how he got there it is his policies which are destroying the United States. Here in NJ the vast majority of us have a higher standard of living than most of the country. We can afford to absorb $4, 5, and 6/gal gasoline, the vast majority of the country can't. Joe Biden is directly responsible for where we are. None of this would be going on if Trump were in the whitehouse.
I saw some interviews with others who were very critical of MacGregor's remarksDouglas Macgregor seemed to make more sense than a lot of other talkers on TV (Adam Tooze was another). Too many Chesty Puffbags want to go to war. I heard one guy say Russians "kettle" Ukrainian soldiers (like NYPD does rioters and then blasts) them with artillery etc.
Macgregor says Ukrainian soldiers now mix-in with civilians. He also said Putin didn't go in too hard on initially and that lined-up with what I was seeing. He doesn't like idea of war escalating and thinks Zelensky is a puppet overdoing things. He thinks a neutral post-war Ukraine is best for all sides. Stuart Varney's monocle falls into his soup
The world is at financial war
The freezing of Russia’s central bank reserves has brought conflict to the heart of the international monetary system.
Skinny,
There's some false narratives in your post. Canada can send us 800k barrels of oil. The Keystone Pipeline can only handle 800k per day. All it would do is bring the oil to the US faster than the current overland trucks do. Yes, JB cut into oil production, fracking, in retrospect a big mistake but there are still thousands of oil drilling leases available and not prohibited on govt owned land that the oil companies are voluntarily not drilling.
I believe there in inaccuracies in the post above.
Also this canard about Keystone is really just to fool the rubes
But one year after announcing a halt to any new federal oil and gas leasing, Biden has outpaced Donald Trump in issuing drilling permits on public lands. After setting a record for the largest offshore lease sale last year in the Gulf of Mexico, the Interior Department plans to auction off oil and gas drilling rights on more than 200,000 acres across Western states by the end of March, followed by 1 million acres in the Cook Inlet, off the coast of Alaska.
The administration's actions reveal an uncomfortable truth: Although Biden supports a shift to cleaner sources of energy, he has failed to curb fossil fuel
I would rather not prolong the political debate but let’s be real: Trump is a total arrogant d-bag, but his policies were largely spot-on and world leaders feared him. Remember when Trump lambasted Germany and other NATO countries for not meeting their defense spending obligations? Russia and China would never have pulled this crap with Trump.
