OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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I see 2,700 I don’t see 2,000. I would start crying and then you can classify it as a stock market crash not a correction.
It's crash for quite a few tech stocks and not just the high flyers lol. 30-50%+ moves for some big names. Look at FB, a name I still like BTW. It's down 50% off the highs and its valuation isn't crazy either. I gave myself quite a cushion (240s was first buy) and it still went down quite a bit. That's why I say I widen my buy points if things are volatile like this. It wasn't meant to be a longer term hold but that's why I stick with trusty big names at reasonable valuations. I'm comfortable holding if needed and sooner or later they usually come through but doesn't mean there won't be "pain on paper" in the mean time. My average price of FB is about 220 currently. We'll see if it works out longer term. I believe it will. It's just been a dead cat, no bounce or anything really of any sort. Even though other big tech has come down a lot too, all had some bounces here and there to play even if they eventually came back down. FB not really much at much at all except, one quick snap back rally when it broke 200.
GOOGL testing earlier year lows again like last week.
So much red…hard to believe all this carnage was caused by one POS madman. I blame the Russian citizens. They can’t be that F’in stupid and fear is no excuse for allowing the death and destruction to occur in Ukraine. If the Russian oligarchs had any balls they’d take out Putin.
I had to look to see where I purchased my FB 230 but sold half at 213 and brought some at 190. FB will come back faster than most with a PE of 13. I‘m glad I sold my ADBE and NVDA since they gone down more by 60-70 points. Not touching any stocks without a positive PE. Just waiting for capitulation to buy big.
The S&P 500 Just Hit a ‘Death Cross.’ Why It’s Good News for the Stock Market. — Barron’s
The S&P 500 has performed so poorly this year that it is now trading at a scarily low level. That usually presents an attractive opportunity for longer-term investors. The market benchmark, down about 12% for the year, hit a “death cross” on Monday. That is when the index’s 50-day moving average...
The S&P 500’s death cross lands the index’s 50-day moving average at around 4,465. That is below its 200-day moving average of 4,467. All it would take for the index to close in a death cross is for it to end Monday below 4,377; it was at 4,199.90 in early afternoon.
Although that makes things in the stock market feel bleak, it is probably a good time for longer-term investors to buy stocks. Historically, the S&P 500 tends to post impressive gains in the 12-month period following an initial close in a death cross. Based on the 53 times the index has closed in death-cross territory, the average gain over that span is 50.7%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
S&P down 13% so far. Just brought some SPY after reading article. Still have 70% cash to invest.
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Looks like we got it. Now, I would like to see capitulation occur at some point!
The S&P 500 Just Hit a ‘Death Cross.’ Why It’s Good News for the Stock Market. — Barron’s
The S&P 500 has performed so poorly this year that it is now trading at a scarily low level. That usually presents an attractive opportunity for longer-term investors. The market benchmark, down about 12% for the year, hit a “death cross” on Monday. That is when the index’s 50-day moving average...apple.news
The S&P 500’s death cross lands the index’s 50-day moving average at around 4,465. That is below its 200-day moving average of 4,467. All it would take for the index to close in a death cross is for it to end Monday below 4,377; it was at 4,199.90 in early afternoon.
Although that makes things in the stock market feel bleak, it is probably a good time for longer-term investors to buy stocks. Historically, the S&P 500 tends to post impressive gains in the 12-month period following an initial close in a death cross. Based on the 53 times the index has closed in death-cross territory, the average gain over that span is 50.7%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
S&P down 13% so far. Just brought some SPY after reading article. Still have 70% cash to invest.
Capitulation should bring S&P to 17-20% down.
PYPL looks like it maybe bottom - up 5 days 4% and up today. FB is close to the bottom. Will increase my FB @ 187 and start new position in PYPL.
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Well one I thing about MA indicators and death cross or whatever, I take them as lagging indicators. So at least some of the downside is already in the market, especially if you're talking about tech. So I think there is some value there but it's not necessarily as foreboding as it sounds...it can be but not for sure. Same for golden crosses, it's a lagging indicator as well.The S&P 500 Just Hit a ‘Death Cross.’ Why It’s Good News for the Stock Market. — Barron’s
The S&P 500 has performed so poorly this year that it is now trading at a scarily low level. That usually presents an attractive opportunity for longer-term investors. The market benchmark, down about 12% for the year, hit a “death cross” on Monday. That is when the index’s 50-day moving average...
The S&P 500’s death cross lands the index’s 50-day moving average at around 4,465. That is below its 200-day moving average of 4,467. All it would take for the index to close in a death cross is for it to end Monday below 4,377; it was at 4,199.90 in early afternoon.
Although that makes things in the stock market feel bleak, it is probably a good time for longer-term investors to buy stocks. Historically, the S&P 500 tends to post impressive gains in the 12-month period following an initial close in a death cross. Based on the 53 times the index has closed in death-cross territory, the average gain over that span is 50.7%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
S&P down 13% so far. Just brought some SPY after reading article. Still have 70% cash to invest.
I've been waiting to see if that would get into the 80s but it does seem to be holding for now. Wonder if next qtr earnings would give it one last woosh down or have we seen it all now. The CEO's comments on eBay still having an affect on earnings bothered me. That IMO should be all priced in the stock and there shouldn't be a trickling of that effect every qtr. Even though FB has had just about the same reaction after earnings as PYPL, I liked the way they kitchen sinked everything and that's the way it should be for any CEO. No trickling out of bad news, just get it all out there and be done.
PYPL is my third choice after V/MA. Still like the business but I have less conviction for it than I do the other two. I've said this before I'm a simple guy I just view them as payment processors, not for fintech or whatever.
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I bought little in the 190s and 180s and my average is just around 220 now. I'll slowly buy more if it goes down more at points I think it has support and could be settling. I still believe in the stock and the company longer term and I'll wait it out. That's part of my security of having quite a bit of cash up or down market, specifically in a down one. I have more money to deploy to buy if things continue to go down. It might not come back right away or soon, frankly I wouldn't expect it if rates are going up and the economy slows, but at the same time it can't go down forever. Markets can be irrational longer than you can be liquid..so for me to protect against that I always have cash and I stick to companies that I think are safe and solid and will come around eventually.
As to capitulation, who knows when that really is until after the fact. People can make guesses in the present but you're really not sure until you look back. People thought the January low was capitulation and turnaround. I think I said the most you can say maybe it's a short term bottom but you can't know for sure. We since broke those lows in February and may be on the way to breaking them again. The best you can ever say IMO is maybe short term bottom and HOPE it's a longer term one and THE bottom. Personally, I don't know that THE bottom will happen any time soon.
Adami mentioning NKE on Fast Money and 105 area would be a place to think it's attractive on valuation for a trade. I myself have been waiting on NKE and thinking 90-105 area is an interesting area to buy a little. Even where it is now, 115 area I think there is some support. I was tempted to buy today but I haven't yet.
One bright light.....Berkshire hits $500,000! :)
(Reuters) - The share price of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc ( BRK/A ) reached $500,000 for the first time on Monday, reflecting the company's status as a defensive stock in a market unsettled by events in Ukraine and rising inflation.
Berkshire's Class A shares have risen 10% in 2022, outpacing the Standard & Poor's 500 index, which has fallen 12%.
Time to start another big round of buying!!! Sadly, I was stuck in meetings this afternoon. Hopefully tomorrow starts off slow. I may need to place a few standing orders for buys.
Slow and steady turtle...one who is willing to hold lots of cash too if nothing interesting to buy.
I've said this before but I think that's a headline risk thing and short term issue imo. It's a "cherry on top" of other "bad news" so to speak. I still think inflation and rates are the biggest long term overhang on the market.
Proudly, Berkshire is in my top-10 holdings (across all accounts). Still waiting for Buffett's succession plan thought. LOL!
Some nice info from chartist/technician Carter Worth on AAPL. 10 times AAPL has gone down more than 15% from 2009-2022 and the mean/median are both around 30%. 138 is a possible level where it could find footing and a 30% move would put you in the 120s.
Will be interesting to see if WB buys more AAPL at these "discounted" prices.
140-145 was where I was wondering about it so 138 isn’t far off from that.
I do look at past downward moves of a stock and see if there is any overlap with areas of support. I like the info from Worth that 30% was about the mean/median downside move. I might be even more patient. 138 is about a 25% move and 120s would be an average 30% move for AAPL.
Get ready for massive buying! Don't miss out on the upswing:
www.cnbc.com
Cramer says stocks may bottom sooner than expected because Wall Street is so negative
"Because sentiment is already so negative, that bottom could come sooner than you'd think," the "Mad Money" host said Monday.
The same Cramer that was plugging NVDA before it dropped 34.65% since this video less than 4 months ago
He makes 5-10 public calls everyday. Easy to cherry pick the few bad ones, but that's what bears do! :)
Buy and hold NVDA. Put it away and look at it in 10 years. You will be very happy. Doing an across the board buy for our E-Trade account tomorrow. Will start adding to our stocks and leverage plays afterwards.
Cramer is on for entertainment. He plugs every company where the CEO comes on his show. He is the last person I would listen to for advice. But I agree with NVDA; especially with the price down to more reasonable levels.
I think he’s knowledgeable and yes everyone can’t be right all the time when you’re making a bunch of calls but he has been wrong on quite a few things I’ve seen recently and I don’t really watch his evening show just what I occasionally see in the morning.
I don’t find him entertaining either. I find him annoying. He’s a carnival barker. Like that thread about sports announcers., I mentioned I’m not picky about it. I’m slightly more picky though on whose stock analysis I like to hear.
+1
Love NVDA. I look at the price and think about backing up the truck. Their last earnings report was flawless and demand for their products just keeps increasing.
I like watching Cramer's opening segment (about 10 mins) via YouTube. These intros do a good job summing up the trading day and what to look for in the near future.
Tesla hikes car prices in the U.S., China after CEO Elon Musk warns of inflation pressure
Tesla raised the prices of all of its models in the U.S. In China, a version of the Model 3 and the Model Y have seen price hikes.
SoftBank's Arm plans to cut up to 1,000 jobs after collapse of $40 billion Nvidia deal
Widely regarded as the jewel in the crown of the U.K. tech sector, Arm employs employs around 6,400 people worldwide.
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Makes total sense…
www.cnbc.com
Movie theater chain AMC just bought a stake in a tiny gold miner with a shaky financial history
AMC Entertainment has agreed to purchase a major stake in a Nevada metal miner, an unusual expansion for the one-time meme stock.
Want gold exposure...ABX, NEM, GLD...pshaw. Of course AMC is the logical choice.Makes total sense…
Movie theater chain AMC just bought a stake in a tiny gold miner with a shaky financial history
AMC Entertainment has agreed to purchase a major stake in a Nevada metal miner, an unusual expansion for the one-time meme stock.
Greg Abel, as per last years annual meeting. I’ve always wanted to attend the BRK annual shareholder meeting—going to go next year I think.
Makes total sense…
Movie theater chain AMC just bought a stake in a tiny gold miner with a shaky financial history
AMC Entertainment has agreed to purchase a major stake in a Nevada metal miner, an unusual expansion for the one-time meme stock.
Crazy. Just read that Eric Sprott invested in Hycroft as well. For those that don't know him, he is one of the smartest commodities guys out there. He started a silver ETF years ago where he holds physical silver rather than futures.
Dopes with cancel culture sanctions driving everyone to China
Russian nukes aren't as likely as Israeli in the future
www.wsj.com
Russian nukes aren't as likely as Israeli in the future
WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales
Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.
www.wsj.com
Dopes with cancel culture sanctions driving everyone to China
Russian nukes aren't as likely as Israeli in the future
WSJ News Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales
Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.
Biden administration doing everything they can to escalate the war, drive Russia to work with China and kill the dollar. These people are amazingly stupid.
Its easy to throw out a statement like that. What are your recommendations to end this crisis?
Honestly all that needs to be done is sanctions on Russia's leadership and economy in line with 2014 and just let them collapse on their own. The failure of the Russian army has nothing to do with the sanctions that have been levied so far, they are doing a fine job of self destructing on their own.
In reality, as I've said before, the extreme sanction packages levied so far are built to kill the average Russian citizen. The ruling class is largely insulated and will continue to maintain relative power and wealth. Russian society also isn't on the brink of revolution like Ukraine was in 2013, so these extreme hardships have a higher likelihood of turning the average Russian citizen against the West rather than against Putin.
I saw this morning Ely Lilly will no longer be sending pharmaceuticals to Russia to protest the Russian government. Is this really the best way to go about this? Harming civilians to try and virtue signal never sits well with me. Hell, we even broker humanitarian deals for North Korea through South Korea.
Like the old saying goes = you hang with sh!t, you stink like it. Russian citizens are paying the price for their support of a madman.
