I haven't traded/sold any of those shares, just kept buying the dip. FYI, TQQQ is up about 20% since Monday. Got a plan and sticking to it.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
I started buying slowly at the end of Jan (when it was under $50). Added a bunch on a few large dips. Was overall down on Monday, but bounced back nicely into the green. It is a wild ride, but I don't mind volatility in my "fun" account.
UPRO, the 3x of the S&P 500, is much less bouncy.
Are you buying UPRO, TQQQ, SOXL which are traditionally a volatility/short term trades as a long term buy and hold strategy? That is interesting. Certainly it is outside the box thinking. Timing for those type of purchases is everything. Get the timing wrong, you could lose big time. Get the timing correct, you could make out like a bandit. How did you determine the correct timing?
When you say “fun account” is it at least somewhere in the six figures? I had a guy at work that used to talk about stocks ALL the time as if it was his side job and we eventually came to learn that he was trading like $50K.
I don't know the "correct" timing, but I know the "better" timing and rely on the historic principle that stuff goes up (in general). LOL! I also calculated a few scenarios to test the long hold theory using Morningstar's $10k return chart. If you bought at the absolute worst time over the past 10 years, here is what happened:
2/19/20 - $10,000
3/20/20 - $3,003 (so you lost 70% at bottom)
11/19/22 - $30,002 (so 3x at the ATH peak even if you bought at the worst time possible)
Held until today - you still would have about $15,000
I tested a few other extremely negative scenarios and it worked out fine. The only time that it didn't work out was during the full dot.com and 9/11 crash when the QQQ dumped 85%. That compression of the daily 3x was too strong to survive. You still would not have made your money back today if you bought literally at the dot.com zenith. That's the only scenario where this plan turned out to be a loser.
You probably know this already, but for others reading the post, the math is actually in your favor. Since it 3x's daily, you get a significant multiplier affect beyond just the 3x on the upswing. If the QQQ goes up 20% over 6 months, the TQQQ doesn't go up 60%, but actually much higher. On the flip side, since 0% is the mathematical floor, it works in reverse going down. So a 20% drop in QQQ is only about -50% or so for the TQQQ.
As I mentioned before, I am VERY comfortable with holding onto UPRO for the long haul. I am still thinking about TQQQ. As for SOXL, this is even more nuts that TQQQ. I have already experienced multiple +/- 15% days. I only own $5k of SOXL and may convert to the 2x version or perhaps short term play it.
Interesting stuff! I learned a lot over the past few months on these leveraged funds. :)
My "fun account" is comfortably over 6 figures, but this also includes my crypto and additional stocks I bought in 2022. The money I have dedicated to leverage etfs is under 6 figures.
Well over long stretches do these not outperform the underlying indexes? Probably not a great buy at an ATH, but buying when 20% off the ATH? Seems like you should do well there long term even if there is the potential for short term pain.
Not me, but did do some DCAing by buying BABA yesterday. It’s been a painful hold, but today helped A LOT! Glad I listened to Mr. Wonderful‘s call on Monday.
It is a good investment if the market constantly goes up. In that case, your returns will greatly surpass the 3x. However if the market stays flat or goes up and down then the returns will likely be disappointing. Anyone who is interested in holding the 3x leveraged ETF's long term, should familiarize themselves with the concept of volatility decay. If you are comfortable then proceed. If you are only investing a couple of thousand dollars then you should be ok.
Correct, that is why they should be used as short term trading vehicles only. That is what they have been designed to be used for.
I've read a lot of articles that you don't need to worry about decay due to the leverage being applied only daily. Regardless, it definitely hasn't impacted performance over their histories. I'm not going to add to SOXL, unless I downgrade to the 2x option. As for TQQQ and UPRO, I have much larger positions, but nothing stupid (relatively). As of now, I only have 55-60% of my dedicated funds for leveraged ETFs invested. The rest is cash.....for now. Gotta go slow and be patient with these due to the timing issue you cited before.
Any investment less than $100,000 into these funds will not likely move the needle much in the long run.
Really? The GrayZone? Whoever doesn't know who they are should just read this link. A far-left site that is pro authoritarian regimes, denies the Ughurs genocide in China. Very strange site.
The Grayzone - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
I never heard of the site and don't care about it one way or another. I was listening to the general - who has given dozens of interviews over the web, podcasts and TV. The posted interview is better than listening to Hannity and Linsey Graham calling Putin a criminal and murderer for 15 minutes, and then calling for him to be murdered. That was one of the more bizarre moments I've seem.
Here's another interesting analysis by vets describing how Russian military successes aren't being reported so people assume there haven't been many.
You know the analysis is legit because the guy is wearing fun sunglasses.
America itself is being invaded by foreigners right now. So far over 12X the number of soldiers who invaded the beaches at Normandy have broken in with help from DC. Right now another 70,000 are massing in Mexico. 80k are going to die this year from Fentanyl made in Mexio with Chinese help/materials. The cartels are decapitating, flaying, raping etc. Its dysfunctional that Americans should be caught-up in Ukraine drama ignoring worse things at home
This is especially true since it was avoidable. Putin/Russia experts know that Putin gets aggressive when he's making money with oil and/or NATO nations are distracted. Putin got an easy green light when US fuel production was intentionally crippled, and when admin helped Russian pipeline. That followed-up with the Afghanistan mess which was also intentional. US allies weren't even informed and they publicly condemned the actions in parliaments. I knew wars were coming as soon as I saw the C-17 fiasco.
The fiasco continues as Russia works to help US with Iranian oil. Thats crazy enough, but going to Iran pisses off Saudis who then refused Biden's phone calls begging for oil. Then you have Harris claiming Ukraine is part of NATO. Oh and US is taking Iran's Republican Guard off terror list and working to get Sheikh Mohammed and 4 other 9-11 captives a plea deal. This after they released 20th 9-11 hijacker to Saudi Arabia claiming he had "mental problems."
Maybe someday people in DC will stop helping enemies. Lord help US if it ever went to war with these people.
Kamala Harris tweet mistakenly suggests Ukraine is part of NATO
The tweet was originally posted around 8:30 p.m. Tuesday evening. A second, nearly identical tweet was posted almost an hour later around 9:20 pm.
nypost.com
Get ready for the lawsuits;
Remember ESG came from China via BlackRock
www.nationalreview.com
Remember ESG came from China via BlackRock
SEC plans to force public companies to disclose greenhouse gas emissions
BlackRock, ESG, and China — an Interesting Combination | National Review
It has always been entertaining to speculate just how BlackRock reconciles its enthusiasm for ESG with its excitement over investment in China.
www.nationalreview.com
To preserve the sanctity of this thread as one dedicated to stock talk I'm going to take a pass on this one.America itself is being invaded by foreigners right now. So far over 12X the number of soldiers who invaded the beaches at Normandy have broken in with help from DC. Right now another 70,000 are massing in Mexico. 80k are going to die this year from Fentanyl made in Mexio with Chinese help/materials. The cartels are decapitating, flaying, raping etc. Its dysfunctional that Americans should be caught-up in Ukraine drama ignoring worse things at home
This is especially true since it was avoidable. Putin/Russia experts know that Putin gets aggressive when he's making money with oil and/or NATO nations are distracted. Putin got an easy green light when US fuel production was intentionally crippled, and when admin helped Russian pipeline. That followed-up with the Afghanistan mess which was also intentional. US allies weren't even informed and they publicly condemned the actions in parliaments. I knew wars were coming as soon as I saw the C-17 fiasco.
The fiasco continues as Russia works to help US with Iranian oil. Thats crazy enough, but going to Iran pisses off Saudis who then refused Biden's phone calls begging for oil. Then you have Harris claiming Ukraine is part of NATO. Oh and US is taking Iran's Republican Guard off terror list and working to get Sheikh Mohammed and 4 other 9-11 captives a plea deal. This after they released 20th 9-11 hijacker to Saudi Arabia claiming he had "mental problems."
Maybe someday people in DC will stop helping enemies. Lord help US if it ever went to war with these people.
Kamala Harris tweet mistakenly suggests Ukraine is part of NATO
The tweet was originally posted around 8:30 p.m. Tuesday evening. A second, nearly identical tweet was posted almost an hour later around 9:20 pm.
I'm up 130% today on my PDD puts.
Unfortuneatley I was down 100% yesterday.
Still I got out of there up a little.
Unfortuneatley I was down 100% yesterday.
Still I got out of there up a little.
Yes. Please just ignore the strong urge to get sucked into political conversations. It is sad to see these folks go down a false rabbit hole and can't get out.
Your situation maybe unique. I am no financial advisor, but I would venture to guess that most long term investors aren't usually willing to invest in highly volatile investment vehicles like the highly leveraged ETFs (other than stocks) in the hopes of generating long term gains associated with an index. I would be interested in knowing how this works out for you. If this is not a big portion of your portfolio, would you mind disclosing your tax lots and date of purchases for these funds so we can all follow along as well?
Looking at BTC's chart.
All time looking really good I think, higher high's and higher lows dating all the way back to 2017.
One year, down significantly from it's highs but looking relatively stable. 30-32 was support. Now that support look's to be in the 36-38k range. Again, we see the higher highs and higher lows.
One month up significantly from it's lows about 3 weeks ago. Still off it's highs, but while the 2 most recent highs were quick spikes this more recent run is a steady climb over the last 4 days.
Really the one year looks the same in that regard, a downward trend followed by a spike in April. A downward trend followed by a spike in October. But right now we are in a steady climb since it's lows in January.
Any TA thoughts?
All time looking really good I think, higher high's and higher lows dating all the way back to 2017.
One year, down significantly from it's highs but looking relatively stable. 30-32 was support. Now that support look's to be in the 36-38k range. Again, we see the higher highs and higher lows.
One month up significantly from it's lows about 3 weeks ago. Still off it's highs, but while the 2 most recent highs were quick spikes this more recent run is a steady climb over the last 4 days.
Really the one year looks the same in that regard, a downward trend followed by a spike in April. A downward trend followed by a spike in October. But right now we are in a steady climb since it's lows in January.
Any TA thoughts?
I think its a larger consolidation than in the past with newer investors bailing along with other risk assets. The HODLers are unchanged, in fact 1.5 billion in BTC left Coinbase more recently confirming that accumulation is ongoing.
Which means if it enters into that range it should blast right through it?
If so would it also expect to hold above the high end of that range? or is that not part of the TA prediction?
May be smooth sailing until the next CPI data point in early April (unless Putin goes Putin with the conflict). Semis finished in the green. :)
Yup it is. Thought there could be at least a little sell off today but nope still strong move up. But I've said you get violent counter trend rallies so hard to know for sure what anything is in the present but only when you look back
On Halftime they were mentioning, JP Morgan analyst saying bottom is in or close to it in those high flyer or no multiple names. I don't know about those names but I was thinking just this morning if we haven't seen the bottom or near bottom for big tech though.
Some of those names have tested previous lows and either bounced off or penetrated and quickly retook those levels. So could we go back? Yea but I wonder if they do go back or even if they do break will it be appreciably lower than the lows we've seen already? FAANG names have been down 20-50% or more so even if we go lower will appreciably lower than the move some of them have had already? I wonder. The multiples are anywhere from very reasonable to somewhat elevated.
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May be it’s just me, but strange news-cycle today given everything that’s happened in the last 24-48 hours with Zelenskyy’s plea, Fed raising rates, commodities, etc…Putin been relatively quiet and far fewer Ukraine stories than we’ve been seeing lately. Calm before the storm or is Putin on the ropes?
I suspect we will retest lows but probably found the floor unless Putin goes bananas. I’m planning to deploy a larger potion of cash on hand during the next few dips. Does anyone think the EV manufacturers can rise despite commodity prices and supply chain issues? I remember someone mentioned GGPI recently.
S&P 500, Nasdaq rally for a third day as investors get comfortable with the Fed's rate-hike plan
The S&P 500 notched a third day of gains as investors digested the latest news out of Ukraine.
Getting back to stock picking, and while SPACs have gotten crushed, anyone have thoughts on IMPX = the Harley/Livewire SPAC? It’s under the $10 redemption and apparently a top holding of Michael Burry. My thinking is with car prices increasing, gas prices up, and the EV market struggling to crank out autos, could electric motorcycles be the answer? The fact is higher auto prices are here to stay. Auto manufacturers don’t ever reduce prices once they go up.
Buying a SPAC trading under $10 is risky business since the $$ in the trust has the option to redeem before the deal is done and the company goes public. Since their stock is at $10 they will normally redeem rather than lose $$. Once that happens you tend to see the stock continue to trade lower until those same investors sell their warrants which they were allowed to keep for free. They basically sell at any price which hammers the stock.
Most stocks don't recover from this for a long time but if you like the deal, you could watch to see what is does after the deal is done and look for a chance to buy lower.
ADTH is one I saw recently which rode out this initial wave of selling and are doing pretty well now. Almost back to $10. But they traded down to $4 right after they completed the deal.
Didn't Putin just recently call Russians protesting the war scum? Also news of Russia bringing in Syrian mercenaries. And of course constant bombings of Ukrainian civilians. So there is plenty of news out there.
But I think Putin is very much on the ropes. But he won't go down easily. Easy to stand strong when you isolate yourself like he has.
Been considering VW for awhile and as a Euro company they are down significantly since the Russian invasion.
But the flip side of that is, Europe even more then the US is seeing the importance, or at least the argument, for EV over ICE. Commodity prices are a headwind as are chip shortages, but if and when the EV commodity prices reside, I don't those prices will stick in the mid of purchursers the way oil prices have.
VWAGY, but it's OTC.
But if you buy pre-merger, can’t you also redeem your shares if it continues to trade lower?
That’s what I was wondering which would mean that $10 is the floor - no?
