Overall? Since stocks go up over time, it will last forever. :)
| Mean: | 16.93 | |
| Median: | 15.87 | |
| Min: | 4.78 | (Dec 1920) |
| Max: | 44.19 | (Dec 1999) |
Stocks performed extremely well during the last Fed rate increase cycle (2016-2018) until it hit 2.5% and Powell unwisely stated he was going to keep at it no matter what. That's when the market freaked out and forced him to back down. Lesson learned, which is why Papa is being more thoughtful now and sticking with quarter points.
That vote was on the first/initial increase. Fed knows it has to accelerate things despite RU/UKR.
The Fed's report predicts their next steps. All quarter points. They also predict that inflation should peak with the June/July data point which means end of summer. If inflation doesn't start going down by the end of summer, look for a 50 at their Sept 13th meeting.
This…nothing really changed this week…I loved the rally but when you see ARKK jumping despite the mix of loser holdings (other than Tesla) I think we will retest some lows especially when people keep throwing around the word “stagflation”. There is no simple way out of this inflation mess and these crazy prices are never going back to old levels unless there is a major reckoning. Wish I bought more Walmart at $132 because it’s now become my favorite store. Groceries are waaaay better than I expected.
Only wacko bears and short sellers are talking about stagflation. I wonder why?
That first paragraph just sounds like the usual “sell in may and go away” I don’t pay close attention to it but I don’t know that that works all the time or even most of the time in recent history.
The Stock Market Just Had Its Best Week Since 2020. Enjoy It While It Lasts. — Barron’s
Drop a ball off a balcony, and it will bounce. Drop the market off an all-time high and it eventually will, too. That doesn’t make it a buying opportunity. We’ve been waiting a while for a week like this. The S&P 500 rose 6.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.5% and the Nasdaq...apple.news
History suggests a short-term bounce is in the offing. On Monday evening, just after the S&P 500 had dropped 0.7%, Stifel strategist Barry Bannister told investors to expect a “relief rally” by April 30, but one that would weaken again starting in May. He cited the fact that November through April is usually stronger than the prior May through October. That hasn’t been the case so far, which makes the market “ripe for a rally,” Bannister says.
Similarly, the folks at Bespoke Investment Group note that when the Nasdaq gains 2.5% for two days in a row, it’s gone on to gain a median 3.4% over the next month, more than three times the median 1% rise over all periods going back to 1996. Unfortunately, those gains peter out over three months, suggesting that investors need to be more cautious than traders. “[More] often than not, these kinds of rallies have occurred during bear markets,” Bespoke notes.
Earnings come out mostly in April. I normally sell after earnings which means May. I hope the rebound last a few more weeks.
Yeah let’s be realistic. This relief rally is great but it’s not like there isn’t plenty of trouble brewing. Regardless, I don’t think it changed EOY targets unless Putin goes off the deep end or inflation shows no signs of improvement.The Stock Market Just Had Its Best Week Since 2020. Enjoy It While It Lasts. — Barron’s
Drop a ball off a balcony, and it will bounce. Drop the market off an all-time high and it eventually will, too. That doesn’t make it a buying opportunity. We’ve been waiting a while for a week like this. The S&P 500 rose 6.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.5% and the Nasdaq...
History suggests a short-term bounce is in the offing. On Monday evening, just after the S&P 500 had dropped 0.7%, Stifel strategist Barry Bannister told investors to expect a “relief rally” by April 30, but one that would weaken again starting in May. He cited the fact that November through April is usually stronger than the prior May through October. That hasn’t been the case so far, which makes the market “ripe for a rally,” Bannister says.
Similarly, the folks at Bespoke Investment Group note that when the Nasdaq gains 2.5% for two days in a row, it’s gone on to gain a median 3.4% over the next month, more than three times the median 1% rise over all periods going back to 1996. Unfortunately, those gains peter out over three months, suggesting that investors need to be more cautious than traders. “[More] often than not, these kinds of rallies have occurred during bear markets,” Bespoke notes.
The Stock Market Just Had Its Best Week Since 2020. Enjoy It While It Lasts. — Barron’s
Drop a ball off a balcony, and it will bounce. Drop the market off an all-time high and it eventually will, too. That doesn’t make it a buying opportunity. We’ve been waiting a while for a week like this. The S&P 500 rose 6.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.5% and the Nasdaq...
History suggests a short-term bounce is in the offing. On Monday evening, just after the S&P 500 had dropped 0.7%, Stifel strategist Barry Bannister told investors to expect a “relief rally” by April 30, but one that would weaken again starting in May. He cited the fact that November through April is usually stronger than the prior May through October. That hasn’t been the case so far, which makes the market “ripe for a rally,” Bannister says.
Similarly, the folks at Bespoke Investment Group note that when the Nasdaq gains 2.5% for two days in a row, it’s gone on to gain a median 3.4% over the next month, more than three times the median 1% rise over all periods going back to 1996. Unfortunately, those gains peter out over three months, suggesting that investors need to be more cautious than traders. “[More] often than not, these kinds of rallies have occurred during bear markets,” Bespoke notes.
The Shiler was discussed here not too long ago.
+1
I don't think it's silly, but I do think you need to consider different factors which are in play, in this case, the covid shutdowns.
Grantham has been calling for an epic crash since 2014. This is well documented. He has been wrong for years and years and years and years.
What’s amazing is that these analysts are wrong more times than they are right but yet they keep getting airtime.
Fear porn sells. I will look for the video, but someone summed up all the public calls of Berry, Grantham, Ackman, and one other famous bear whose name escapes me and they were wrong over 98% of the time. They just keep yelling crash, crash, crash, crash, crash regardless of the situation. Sadly, since crashes happen from time to time, they get credit for being "right" even though they are essentially the boy that cried wolf.
It does appear that the hands of the oil companies are not completely tied. If they want to increase production, they could, and in fact they are. But will they ramp that increased production up even more given the current prices?
Looking forward to tomorrow's NVDA investor day! The market was amusing today. Stupid investors freaked out with fear and emotion when Powell spoke, but regulars folks knew that everything said today was in the Fed report last week. So the market mellowed out. LOL!NKE earnings beat on the top and bottom line. China issues sound inline (just down 5%) and North America as well. Online up 19% and direct sales up 15% sound good. I think they have higher margins in those areas. Up 4.5% after hours guidance will come on the earnings call.
Nike reports sales growth driven by North American demand, delays outlook amid global unrest
Nike said it will provide a more detailed outlook for fiscal 2023 when it reports fourth-quarter results.www.cnbc.com
I’m not overly impressed with the quarter and wonder if it will retreat tomorrow. Although, I do agree they were dealt a rough hand with supply chain crap and China.NKE earnings beat on the top and bottom line. China issues sound inline (just down 5%) and North America as well. Online up 19% and direct sales up 15% sound good. I think they have higher margins in those areas. Up 4.5% after hours guidance will come on the earnings call.
Nike reports sales growth driven by North American demand, delays outlook amid global unrest
Nike said it will provide a more detailed outlook for fiscal 2023 when it reports fourth-quarter results.
Just talking about the midday drop.....which was temporary. Yes, overall a solid day.
My gut tells me we are in for another leg down on some BS Russia news in the next few weeks, at which point people will finally get sick of this invasion, inflation and commodities shit and we can finally build momentum heading to the second half of the year.
2nd half of the year we can focus on a particular political party getting its ASS handed to them in the mid-terms.
So do I and I don't work there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I mentioned a week or so ago that Carter Worth said NKE could have a run up to 145 area. I saw the same as there is some resistance in that area and the neckline of what I thought was a double top is there as well. There is some slighter resistance in this 138ish area as well. Some other Fast Money traders last night mentioned a run to around 150 which is in the vicinity. I'd probably look to get out of what I have left of the shares I picked up recently in the 140-145 area because I do think it will have trouble getting much beyond that area.
8-1 vote last meeting. And FYI, Bostic doesn't have a vote. Stop with the fear porn. The Fed plan is clear and will be data driven.
