OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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GILD hitting a 52 week low today on continued weakness. Break this support area and I think mid 50s comes into play and there I might decide to start a position in it.
I’m somewhat tempted even here at 60 and change but I’m not sure all the questions about how much remdesivir can contribute to the bottom line are out of the stock yet.
I’m somewhat tempted even here at 60 and change but I’m not sure all the questions about how much remdesivir can contribute to the bottom line are out of the stock yet.
I think it's massively massively oversold. I can't explain it. If you have some extra coin and patience buy now and hold for 2 years ..you won't be sorry.
On remdesivir, everyone is overthinking it. The product is going to gross upwards of 5 billion this year, guaranteed. We are in the middle of a pandemic, this is a throw everything at it type scenario. Negative and positive is all balancing out, it's all just competing noise. What you are left with are hospital pharmacists buying and stocking this product. All the leading medical centers in the world are buying and stocking remdesivir. There's 2 products that do anything at all and have been proven clinically to work ... Dexamethasone and remdesivir. That's the bottom line
5 billion in sales seems quite optimistic from what I've read. Here's one article about its sales projections. Even Gilead's own projection implied up to 3 billion. The company seems pretty levered to HCV and HIV and those have been strong pipelines for them but seem to be flagging a little lately which I think has contributed to their weakness. The 55-60 is where I'm tempted to start a position but I'm just going to wait for now, plus if the overall market shows weakness because of increased #of cases or lack of stimulus until after the election that won't help either.
From the article:
Remdesivir has become the standard of care for patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19. But many doctors remain wary of using it more widely, raising questions about lofty analyst sales forecasts for a drug that could eventually be eclipsed by newer treatments.
The company struggled to meet early demand and gave away around 250,000 courses earlier in the pandemic, when remdesivir was the only treatment proven to shorten hospital stays for severely ill patients.
Since then, low-cost steroids have demonstrated an ability to cut death risk in severely ill COVID-19 patients, and doctors question the medical value of using remdesivir for moderately-ill patients.
Wall Street forecast $2.5 billion in worldwide sales of remdesivir this year, according to Refinitiv. However, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which oversaw the drug's second-quarter distribution, said hospitals only bought 32% of 500,000 available courses - worth about $500 million at $3,120 per course.
The European Union in July purchased 30,000 courses worth another $74 million. The EU recently contracted for 500,000 remdesivir courses over the next six months, but the deal does not require purchases.
Gilead sells and licenses remdesivir to most of the world but is expected to get the vast majority of revenue from the United States and Europe.
Johanna Mercier, Gilead's chief commercial officer, acknowledged that "hospitalization rates were much lower than originally predicted."
The drug accounts for a fraction of Gilead's product sales, which totaled $21.7 billion in 2019. But the company in July raised its 2020 outlook, implying remdesivir sales of up to $3 billion, according to analysts.
ANALYSIS- Sales of first big COVID-19 drug, remdesivir, may disappoint
Investors betting on big profits from COVID-19 treatments may get an unwelcome surprise when Gilead Sciences Inc reports quarterly results this month. Its remdesivir, the first important coronavirus treatment, has not been used as much as first expected and faces complex insurance reimbursement...
www.nasdaq.com
BTW here's a Time article talking about the 2 studies on remdesivir. One paragraph sounds specifically like what my interpretation of the 2 studies was above.....the results don't sound so conflicting. If you don't discriminate for progression of the disease both the WHO and Gilead studies say no difference is seen. The GILD study also pulled out earlier stage progression and in that stage you do see an effect. The WHO study didn't look at that.
From the article:
Dr. Roger Shapiro, associate professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, and a practicing infectious disease physician, pointed out that, unlike the NIAID study, the Solidarity study did not break down people who needed oxygen by how much additional oxygen they needed. The Solidarity study grouped people by whether they did not need supplemental oxygen, whether they needed it or if they were on ventilators.
The difference could be important, as those needing less oxygen may be earlier in their infection than those needing more. Indeed, in the NIAID study, the scientists did look at the so-called low-flow and high-flow groups, and found that remdesivir provided more benefit for those needing less oxygen. And Shapiro notes that if the two groups in the NIAID study are combined, and treated as a single group like these patients were in Solidarity, the responses to remdesivir are pretty similar.
time.com
From the article:
Dr. Roger Shapiro, associate professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, and a practicing infectious disease physician, pointed out that, unlike the NIAID study, the Solidarity study did not break down people who needed oxygen by how much additional oxygen they needed. The Solidarity study grouped people by whether they did not need supplemental oxygen, whether they needed it or if they were on ventilators.
The difference could be important, as those needing less oxygen may be earlier in their infection than those needing more. Indeed, in the NIAID study, the scientists did look at the so-called low-flow and high-flow groups, and found that remdesivir provided more benefit for those needing less oxygen. And Shapiro notes that if the two groups in the NIAID study are combined, and treated as a single group like these patients were in Solidarity, the responses to remdesivir are pretty similar.
How to Make Sense of Conflicting Results on Promising COVID-19 Drug Remdesivir
A large WHO study on the drug remdesiver showed no survival benefit for coronavirus patients. But doctors aren’t ready to stop using it
So after settling back off the 50% jump, Rewalk jumped 20% today on the news that medicare will no pay for the Rewalk product.
The question of course is who was buying 2 days ago before the news broke?
I bought on your call and I'm up 16%. News this morning of paypal allowing the use of bitcoin/crypto has it up another 5% so far.
Bitcoin has now become the unofficial currency of the people of Nigeria (not the govt) which sounds trivial but Nigeria is Africa's most populated country and is a hub of technology. Besides bitcoin's scarcity and finite quantity, its acceptance in the face of govt currency fiats will continue to increase its demand. Finally, another stimulus package and a "blue wave" possibly coming on Nov 3 will stoke inflation fears further driving up the price of bitcoin.
More Bitcoin craziness!
www.cnbc.com
Paul Tudor Jones says he likes bitcoin even more now, rally still in the 'first inning'
The longtime trader believes inflation will make a comeback and bitcoin is the best hedge against it.
You think its crazy? I wouldn't put all my money into bitcoin (or any other asset), but it certainly is worth putting a portion of your holdings into it. I prefer the easier transactions of a trust like GBTC rather than the more complicated version of actually buying bitcoins. I can assure you that will become easier however over time, as seen by Paypal now participating in its use.More Bitcoin craziness!
Paul Tudor Jones says he likes bitcoin even more now, rally still in the 'first inning'
The longtime trader believes inflation will make a comeback and bitcoin is the best hedge against it.
GILD with another 52 week low breaking 60 to the downside again. It retook it and closed above a couple days ago...will it be able to do it again?
Another note in Barron's from a Citigroup analyst with a buy rating on the stock. Even though he has a buy rating doesn't sound like a good growth story for the next couple years and echoes what I mentioned above. They're quite levered to HCV and HIV and those pipelines seem to be peaking and their cancer therapies will take some time to pick up the slack. Also more questions about just how much sales remdemsivir will have. It is oversold but sometimes a stock can stay oversold for a quite awhile. Still like it more in the mid 50s than here and around 52 if that broke.
From the article:
Gilead Sciences has bet big on experimental treatments lately to hedge the peaking sales of its antiviral drug franchises.
Citigroup analyst Mohit Bansal is a fan, with a Buy rating on Gilead stock (ticker: GILD), but he foresees a few years of eroding revenue before Gilead gets a lift from new acquisitions like its $21 billion deal for cancer fighter Immunomedics (IMMU).
“We see two more years of revenue decline,” Bansal wrote in a note Wednesday. Gilead stands to get a passing revenue boost from its celebrated Covid-19 antiviral remdesivir, but Bansal expects Covid sales to taper off in next year’s second half.
It won’t be until 2023 that Gilead starts to get a top-line boost from Immunomedics sales, he concludes. So Bansal has taken down his target price for Gilead stock to $75 from $80. In Thursday morning trading, the shares were flat at $60.17.
“While remdesivir is a nice short-term addition, we think these revenues could be short-lived after 2021, especially with new antibody treatments & vaccines,” Bansal writes. The Covid antiviral’s contribution will be a wild card when Gilead reports its latest quarter’s sales on Oct. 28.
www.barrons.com
Another note in Barron's from a Citigroup analyst with a buy rating on the stock. Even though he has a buy rating doesn't sound like a good growth story for the next couple years and echoes what I mentioned above. They're quite levered to HCV and HIV and those pipelines seem to be peaking and their cancer therapies will take some time to pick up the slack. Also more questions about just how much sales remdemsivir will have. It is oversold but sometimes a stock can stay oversold for a quite awhile. Still like it more in the mid 50s than here and around 52 if that broke.
From the article:
Gilead Sciences has bet big on experimental treatments lately to hedge the peaking sales of its antiviral drug franchises.
Citigroup analyst Mohit Bansal is a fan, with a Buy rating on Gilead stock (ticker: GILD), but he foresees a few years of eroding revenue before Gilead gets a lift from new acquisitions like its $21 billion deal for cancer fighter Immunomedics (IMMU).
“We see two more years of revenue decline,” Bansal wrote in a note Wednesday. Gilead stands to get a passing revenue boost from its celebrated Covid-19 antiviral remdesivir, but Bansal expects Covid sales to taper off in next year’s second half.
It won’t be until 2023 that Gilead starts to get a top-line boost from Immunomedics sales, he concludes. So Bansal has taken down his target price for Gilead stock to $75 from $80. In Thursday morning trading, the shares were flat at $60.17.
“While remdesivir is a nice short-term addition, we think these revenues could be short-lived after 2021, especially with new antibody treatments & vaccines,” Bansal writes. The Covid antiviral’s contribution will be a wild card when Gilead reports its latest quarter’s sales on Oct. 28.
Gilead’s Sales Will Slip Even With Remdesivir
Citigroup analyst Mohit Bansal rates Gilead stock at Buy but lowered his target price to $75 from $80. He sees two more years of revenue decline.
FDA approves remdesivir for treatment of COVID. I think this was kind of a given and expected but we'll see how much juice it gives to the stock and still questions remain on just how much will it contribute to sales/earnings.
U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approves Gilead’s Antiviral Veklury® (remdesivir) for Treatment of COVID-19
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the antiviral drug Veklury® (remdes
www.businesswire.com
FDA approves remdesivir for treatment of COVID. I think this was kind of a given and expected but we'll see how much juice it gives to the stock and still questions remain on just how much will it contribute to sales/earnings.
U.S. Food and Drug Administration Approves Gilead’s Antiviral Veklury® (remdesivir) for Treatment of COVID-19
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the antiviral drug Veklury® (remdeswww.businesswire.com
I'm sitting on 10 Oct 23 options, 61 strike. Tomorrow may be a very good day!
Very realistic chance that could be in the money. Don’t think it’ll get much beyond the 65ish area any time soon but up to 62 or so is quite possible imo.
EDIT: just took a look at the after hours up 4 bucks and around 7% so looking good for you....maybe it will smack up against the 50DMA again in the 65ish area but without confirmation of sales not sure it can break that with conviction and stay above it...but for you it doesn't matter....congrats!
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GBTC, INCL, and EHTH all tank on me in after hours. The latter 2 off poor earning results.
INTC had been one of those stocks I was holding where if you look at the #'s you'd say this thing is way undervalued. P/E of 9, EPS of 5.4. Yet it reports today and sees shrinking rev's and earnings and it drops another 10%. Bought it after it tanked on it's last earnings, and sold pretty much at the same level.
EHTH is one I can't figure, the #'s look pretty good, but down nearly 50% off it's highs. Sold half my position on a bit of an after hours bounce and will likely sell the rest soon. Going to wait see some analysis, and how it reacts in the days ahead.
No clue what is up with GBTC, maybe profit taking after a hot run of late.
INTC had been one of those stocks I was holding where if you look at the #'s you'd say this thing is way undervalued. P/E of 9, EPS of 5.4. Yet it reports today and sees shrinking rev's and earnings and it drops another 10%. Bought it after it tanked on it's last earnings, and sold pretty much at the same level.
EHTH is one I can't figure, the #'s look pretty good, but down nearly 50% off it's highs. Sold half my position on a bit of an after hours bounce and will likely sell the rest soon. Going to wait see some analysis, and how it reacts in the days ahead.
No clue what is up with GBTC, maybe profit taking after a hot run of late.
Meanwhile GE is pushing towards $8. One of those cases where I want to get in as I think it does continue to move higher, but wary of a near term step back.
Cramer recently had a Ford vs GE segment wondering which one get's to $10 first. Ford continues to hold it's lead but both are running strong.
Cramer recently had a Ford vs GE segment wondering which one get's to $10 first. Ford continues to hold it's lead but both are running strong.
I'm telling ya, those rem sales projections are underestimated. They are going to get revised up. Perhaps when they report next week. That's my prediction. Mark this post.
Not sure what you’re referring to about after hours selling of GBTC. It doesn’t trade after hours. Bitcoin hit as high as13.2k today and GBTC followed suit. Bitcoin trades around the clock worldwide and as I post , it’s around 12.9. GBTC will drop a bit tomorrow if bitcoin stays there. It’s not a straight line up but it’s long term outlook is bullish. I’ve seen bitcoin projections of 50k to over 200 k over the next 18 months.
Well that after hours and premarket rally faded but at least it gave you enough of an opportunity to cash in this morning. Like I said I didn't think the FDA news was something unexpected. If the stock hadn't been so oversold I'd figure it would have been a sell the news kind of story but since it was I guess any little positive could trigger a relief rally but looks like it's faded for now. But still holding about 60 which is good.
I still think it needs confirmation on just how much remdesivir is selling and also is it enough to make up for slowing growth in the their key lines of HIV/HCV.
Yes and will rise like a phoenix from the ashes....well maybe in a few years...at least that's my bet. 😉
ya know I was thinking about that this morning, maybe etrade was glitchy last night?
GE with some more positive signs....better than expected earnings. Up 8-9% at the open on a very red day, although not sure how much will hold if overall market continues to be weak. Adjusted earnings showing a a slight profit over an expected loss. Cash flow slightly positive among various segments of the company over expected negative cash flow. No surprises out of GE Capital with regards to insurance reserves (unfortunate to say but as I mentioned above COVID could actually be helping that portfolio) and cash flow overall expected to be positive in 2021. Considering all the headwinds they face, especially in their jewel of aviation I'd say not bad at all.
CEO mentioned he thinks the turn around is probably in inning 2-3, so like I said above a long slog still ahead. But seems like they're doing a good job trimming the fat, cutting the costs and becoming more lean in order to show positive cash flow and profits in the face of headwinds on their strongest business segment. Company looks like it's being run better but still a ways to go. If the pandemic hadn't hit I'd think we'd more like inning 4-6 but that basically took any sort of wind out of their sails. CEO said airline traffic will return but it will likely take years but he does see traffic in China becoming more normalized. That will likely occur too across the world as we move through the pandemic in the coming years.
Revenue's from their renewable energy segment was on par with their other segments(aviation, power, healthcare) which I assume should help the stock price in a market which currently is in love with clean energy.
I've dragged my feet getting in, I saw it dipped with the rest on the market on monday, but didn't get in, so I'm hoping the market does bring it back today and then I'll take up a position.
Saw JPM dip back below $100. No matter how good the earnings for these financials look they just can not budge.
This is another one where I think about getting in, regret it a little when it starts to move, but then it settles back every time.
This is another one where I think about getting in, regret it a little when it starts to move, but then it settles back every time.
Like I said it’s going to be a multi year slog and could easily go back to the 6s especially if overall market is weak but a foray up to high single digits low doubles isn’t unrealistic either as I said and the GS analyst has a similar view. But beyond that area is not likely without a GE aviation recovery. These other segments shouldn’t be on par with it, it just basically shows how much it’s been hurt by the pandemic.
Couple months back someone mentioned NIO, at around $9, as a chinese EV play, and I said, nah, would rather stick with US companies because there are plenty of options there. Well it went on a big run and it got up above $30 recently.
It has settled back a bit, currently below $27.50.
I do wonder how much upside is left for any stock that has gone on a run like NIO has, and I do wonder about the glut of EV plays that are out there, with more on the way. But as the biggest Chinese EV company, one that is and has been actually making and selling cars, in country that has a top down focus to go electric, I think I might be willing to get in a little late on this one.
It has settled back a bit, currently below $27.50.
I do wonder how much upside is left for any stock that has gone on a run like NIO has, and I do wonder about the glut of EV plays that are out there, with more on the way. But as the biggest Chinese EV company, one that is and has been actually making and selling cars, in country that has a top down focus to go electric, I think I might be willing to get in a little late on this one.
Given the levels this was at, plus todays earnings, and the positive sentiment which proceeded those earnings, I think GE might be past the slog phase. Granted if you bought this at $30 four years ago, it might feel sloggish to see this in the low double digits next year, but if I were to get in right now? Low double digits next year would be pretty quick up turn.
Well might sell some of my position if it got up to those resistance levels I mention but the rest I’m looking at high teens twenties and beyond as the slog. Also want to see that these headwinds are mostly out of the way....especially no more surprises out of LTC. I tend to think LTC should be accounted for because I trust this management team more. Nonetheless the CEO himself puts it at inning 2-3 of the turnaround. So it’s not just my opinion.
in before you know who says he went to cash last Fri and is rebuilding his positions on down days this week
Someone mentioned SH around late August. It is now, where it was then.
Unless you are expecting that big drop, as opposed to the volatility we have seen over the past couple months, you have to be super nimble to play this one.
The selloff has taken GILD firmly through the support in the low 60s I mentioned. Earnings out after hours and we'll get a look see into remdemsivir sales/projections and how their HCV/HIV lines are doing. I've been on the sidelines and will continue to be.
Over-valued equities, COVID resurgence, potential election shenanigans, record deficit to grow further....
All these things have been known considerations for months, and thus the volatility over that time.
Does the reality of the resurgence and the election chaos tip the scales? It could.
I'd say the deficit isn't really a factor given the market has been going up in the face of ever increasing deficits for decades. Plus stimulus, and the additional debt that comes with it, would actually turn todays tide very quickly.
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Well right now it's bumping up against the 200DMA, so you need to break that and hold it too for some time to confirm. I don't know that it will happen so easily. After that I'd say the 9-10.50 area is the next resistance and then after that 12-13 area. If the market is weak that won't help.
Also news that BA expects to get approval for the 737 Max in the 4th qtr and then need time to train pilots. BUT they also expect to layoff more workers in the next year. They have 160K employees and had already planned to layoff 16K or 10% but by the end of next year expect the workforce to be at about 130K. So you see what BA's outlook on demand must be on planes which in turn effects GE Aviation.
GE is showing some positive baby steps and I'd just leave it at that.
