+1
Too many positive reports! Makes so much sense that the market dropped 3% today. 😂
The market is emotional and irrational.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Too many positive reports! Makes so much sense that the market dropped 3% today. 😂
The market is emotional and irrational.
I think there is some rationality to the drop. Too big of a run, covid, stimulus falling apart. But the rational for this not being a collapse is also there.
It only becomes a collapse when countries start having Wuhan and Melbourne style lockdowns without any stimulus.
I did start buying last night. I reviewed the stocks that I have been trading and already own some shares.
AAPL and TSLA down24% from high
ADBE and NVDA down 17% from high
CRM down 19% from high
MSFT FB GOOG down 14% from high
I think they are oversold and the March and Sept dips they only went down 20% but recovered. If they don’t recover shortly then it’s my long term investment. My % of equities was low anyhow.
This is no way a recommendation. I buy when it’s low and sell whenever there’s a profit.
David Einhorn’s opinion on the market. Doesn’t mean he’s right but just one take.
www.marketwatch.com
The stock market has put in a top and an 'enormous' bubble has already burst, says David Einhorn
An “enormous” bubble in tech stocks likely popped in September, putting the top in the market, hedge-fund manager David Einhorn warned in a letter to investors.
www.marketwatch.com
Asset allocation is a very individual metric. The key data point is your age. Younger people with long time horizons should and can be more aggressive in their allocations. Those in or approaching retirement should be looking to reduce market risk. In a rising market, more and more investors develop a false sense of competence, especially after the long run that we have experienced. The tech wreck exposed many "day traders" who really didn't know what they were doing.
I agree the market is extremely high but I can’t be in 100% cash. I want to be in cash 100% but if I see an opportunity to make a trade and only hold the stock for a couple of week or a month then it’s worth the risk.David Einhorn’s opinion on the market. Doesn’t mean he’s right but just one take.
The stock market has put in a top and an 'enormous' bubble has already burst, says David Einhorn
An “enormous” bubble in tech stocks likely popped in September, putting the top in the market, hedge-fund manager David Einhorn warned in a letter to investors.
I will keep an eye on this market since I am normally out of the stocks when the earnings come out but these stocks are already low. I expect them to jump within a week or will reduce my exposure.
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BOOM!
www.cnbc.com
U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected
The growth came after a 31.4% plunge in the second quarter and was better than the 32% estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones
Strong jobs numbers too. Don't f' this up America--keep riding the Trump Economic Recovery Train!
U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 751,000, their lowest level since March
The number of first-time unemployment-benefits filers fell to the lowest level in the pandemic, declining for a second straight week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Initial weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 24, down from the previous week’s total of 791,000. It was also the lowest initial claims print since the week of March 14, when they came in at 282,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial jobless claims to come in at 778,000.
“We had expected that the steep decline we saw in claims last week would be too big to repeat, but downside momentum in claims remains intact,” Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. “The question going forward is going to be whether a surge in COVID cases and renewed measures aimed at containing the virus will lead to another spike in claims in the coming weeks.”
www.cnbc.com
U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 751,000, their lowest level since March
The number of first-time unemployment-benefits filers fell to the lowest level in the pandemic, declining for a second straight week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Initial weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 24, down from the previous week’s total of 791,000. It was also the lowest initial claims print since the week of March 14, when they came in at 282,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial jobless claims to come in at 778,000.
“We had expected that the steep decline we saw in claims last week would be too big to repeat, but downside momentum in claims remains intact,” Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. “The question going forward is going to be whether a surge in COVID cases and renewed measures aimed at containing the virus will lead to another spike in claims in the coming weeks.”
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 751,000, vs 778,000 expected
The number of first-time unemployment claims declined for a second straight week — to the lowest level since Covid shutdowns began in March.
Thanks for sharing your abrupt change in trading startegy....after the strong economic news is announced today and Cramer says the market is oversold...
I sometime listen to Cramer and he’s hit and miss but I like it when he goes to the charts. I can’t do my analysis with chart. Cramer has been saying for a week or two that the charts say that the market will turn upward Friday or election time.Thanks for sharing your abrupt change in trading startegy....after the strong economic news is announced today and Cramer says the market is oversold...
As you noticed I changed my mind last night after reviewing how far down the stocks moved. If these stocks don’t move upward after their earning ( AAPL, FB, GOOG, AMZN) then I would be Wary of the market.
I don’t normally at YTD gain but if MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, and FB is trading at around a 33 PE and MCD is 34, KO 24 or PG at 26, I think those tech stocks are safer.
What I noticed was you posted about changing your mind after the strong economic news this morning. Carry on Gordon.
Josh Brown(one of my favorite guys on cnbc) on the halftime report ragged on Einhorn a bit noting he predicted a bubble in 2014 and 2016. Also noted that Einhorn said Amazon at that time was one of those companies that was ready to burst.David Einhorn’s opinion on the market. Doesn’t mean he’s right but just one take.
The stock market has put in a top and an 'enormous' bubble has already burst, says David Einhorn
An “enormous” bubble in tech stocks likely popped in September, putting the top in the market, hedge-fund manager David Einhorn warned in a letter to investors.
Brown did say one of Einhorn's books was a must read for investors. So he wasn't completely undermining him.
MSFT didn't move(actually dropped but that could have just been the overall market dropping) on it's very positive report so I'm not expecting much movement in the above mega caps either.
Again my very humble opinion here but I think the big runs of these companies over the spring and summer baked in these positive quarterly earnings. Thus I don't see non movement here as very concerning for the overall market.
Strong jobs numbers too. Don't f' this up America--keep riding the Trump Economic Recovery Train!
U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 751,000, their lowest level since March
The number of first-time unemployment-benefits filers fell to the lowest level in the pandemic, declining for a second straight week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Initial weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 24, down from the previous week’s total of 791,000. It was also the lowest initial claims print since the week of March 14, when they came in at 282,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial jobless claims to come in at 778,000.
“We had expected that the steep decline we saw in claims last week would be too big to repeat, but downside momentum in claims remains intact,” Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. “The question going forward is going to be whether a surge in COVID cases and renewed measures aimed at containing the virus will lead to another spike in claims in the coming weeks.”
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 751,000, vs 778,000 expected
The number of first-time unemployment claims declined for a second straight week — to the lowest level since Covid shutdowns began in March.
Happy Days Are Here Again?
Got to say, in the run up to election day, I harbor some skepticism about the validity of these economic reports. The current admin has demonstrated a tendency to enhance reality in order to achieve a more desirable result, one that helps their cause and interests. Who dare impede the WH at this point with Nov 3 approaching?
Serious observation. Thoughts?
Best post in this thread. Investing most definitely should be related to your time horizon. I'm in one of those shorter time horizons due to my age but I've always followed techs and still put a small portion of my funds to actively trade on fundamentals and momentum. That's just me and the amount I invest, if totally lost, won't change my lifestyle. But your post is absolutely the best advice for investors.
If the stock market is the reason you choose a presidential candidate then it really doesn't matter. The market cares more about a split congress. Gridlock is what keeps the market going higher, not the party of the President.Strong jobs numbers too. Don't f' this up America--keep riding the Trump Economic Recovery Train!
U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 751,000, their lowest level since March
The number of first-time unemployment-benefits filers fell to the lowest level in the pandemic, declining for a second straight week, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Initial weekly U.S. jobless claims came in at 751,000 for the week ending Oct. 24, down from the previous week’s total of 791,000. It was also the lowest initial claims print since the week of March 14, when they came in at 282,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial jobless claims to come in at 778,000.
“We had expected that the steep decline we saw in claims last week would be too big to repeat, but downside momentum in claims remains intact,” Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. “The question going forward is going to be whether a surge in COVID cases and renewed measures aimed at containing the virus will lead to another spike in claims in the coming weeks.”
U.S. weekly jobless claims total 751,000, vs 778,000 expected
The number of first-time unemployment claims declined for a second straight week — to the lowest level since Covid shutdowns began in March.
Economy first for me, but the stock market typically correlates to that.
Didn’t even see the economic news. What‘s important to me is the decline % of the stocks. I would assume the algorithm for some of the funds kick in when it reaches a certain level.
Too much emphasis is placed on the news. I see people try to explain the stock market moves to the news.
Right now, I have been trying to keep AMZN, FB, PYPL, AMD, NVDA. When they go up close to the high 5%, I ‘m selling in increments but will keep a smaller portion of stock in the portfolio and buy in increments when they drop again normally buying again with a 5-7% drop.
If the market really drops, buy and hold the market.
I got out of a ton of equities a couple of weeks ago until we can get past the election. I expect everything to be “doom and gloom” for while. Good news will go unnoticed and bad news will be magnified. I need to be better prepared for similar-to-March panic this time.
ADBE went down after great earning and significant increase in their projection. If they don’t move up tonight and they start moving further down, I will be worried for the entire market. I would start reducing my equities.
He’s just another known investor like Icahn, Ackman, Buffett, Chanos, Tepper, etc...sometimes they’re right and sometimes they’re wrong. Article happened to pop into my feed so I just shared it here.
Last Oct ADBE was at $270, then at $380 before the dip in March, and was around $500 at the announcement of earnings. Currently $463.
Do I see that overall price action as a negative sign for the market? I think a continuing trend upward would be more concerning.
Most of the stocks I listed are 14-20% down from the high already, ADBE is 17% down from $536 if they break 20% down I would be reducing my equity and more concerned about the market.
So ADBE had not yet settled back the way the other stocks already had. So it makes sense that such a dip was due.
I trimmed back on aapl somewhat recently. Now I highly doubt this happens but If it drops 20% off earnings today I'm buying back in.
Conversely the hope of stimulus was driving the market in the previous weeks. So kind of a wash overall.
Moral of the story is the market wants stimulus.
Like I noted above the market was moving well on what looked like positive stimulus talks, then went south after talks broke down.
So it's reacting to both good and bad news. I think volatile is a better description then doom and gloom.
So... your portfolio comprises five equity positions and cash? That's the whole of it?
Those are the main ones but also hold GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, ADBE, and CRM right now but it depends if they are up or down. quality growth stocks. I’m not buying of the new tech stocks like Zoom, NIO which have no earnings. It’s not what you would think is a typical portfolio.
I really want to owe the dividend aristocrats or some pharm but every time I buy them, they just sink further down.
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