OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[Knight Owl]

Kind of OT, but our local pool is closing because they can’t find any lifeguards. I talked to one of the board members and he said he can’t explain it, they had a waiting list of lifeguards up to 2020 and the bottom dropped out. They even significantly raised pay and that didn’t attract anyone.

As someone who is only 31, I struggle to wrap my head around this as I’m not that far removed from working part time jobs in college/high school. I keep hearing this is a direct impact of inflation/stagflation but that doesn’t square with me.

For those who were around during the 70s/80s stagflationary period, did small businesses struggle to find employees due to the perceived imbalance between pay, effort, and cost of living?

My earliest memories of the real economy were early-mid 80’s when I started working part-time. There was a lot of optimism for young people then since America was winning the Cold War (Solidarity movement in Poland was early 80’s) and college was relatively cheap. This is a very different America in that four years of college is probably now out of reach for many but those choosing to attend college may not be willing to work part-time jobs any longer (people getting COVID at work probably has an influence on the minds of quite a few).

 

[mdk01]

Kind of OT, but our local pool is closing because they can’t find any lifeguards. I talked to one of the board members and he said he can’t explain it, they had a waiting list of lifeguards up to 2020 and the bottom dropped out. They even significantly raised pay and that didn’t attract anyone.

As someone who is only 31, I struggle to wrap my head around this as I’m not that far removed from working part time jobs in college/high school. I keep hearing this is a direct impact of inflation/stagflation but that doesn’t square with me.

For those who were around during the 70s/80s stagflationary period, did small businesses struggle to find employees due to the perceived imbalance between pay, effort, and cost of living?

That would have been me in the 70s and the answer is they would have been flooded with applicants.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Kind of OT, but our local pool is closing because they can’t find any lifeguards. I talked to one of the board members and he said he can’t explain it, they had a waiting list of lifeguards up to 2020 and the bottom dropped out. They even significantly raised pay and that didn’t attract anyone.

As someone who is only 31, I struggle to wrap my head around this as I’m not that far removed from working part time jobs in college/high school. I keep hearing this is a direct impact of inflation/stagflation but that doesn’t square with me.

For those who were around during the 70s/80s stagflationary period, did small businesses struggle to find employees due to the perceived imbalance between pay, effort, and cost of living?

I think the work shortage is solely due to COVID and how it has impacted day to day life.

Congrats on being 31. Make sure to DCA and invest on schedule. Don't get scared away during bear markets. Time wins the day and you have a lot of it!

 

[Joey Bags]

I think the work shortage is solely due to COVID and how it has impacted day to day life.

Congrats on being 31. Make sure to DCA and invest on schedule. Don't get scared away during bear markets. Time wins the day and you have a lot of it!

That’s the plan. We are about to close on our new home soon, will rebalance our long term investments once we close. A lot of our investment strategy has involved building our down payment and beefing up our emergency fund to factor in homeownership, so things were more conservative and liquid. Now that those objectives are complete it’s time to rebalance for the long term.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Today's inflation is mostly due to conflict and COVID, not monetary policy (which means, lots of fear and emotion). The Fed is going to have to take less action than the market thinks since inflation will plummet once Putin and China are done doing what they do.

Even if what you say is true (and I don't believe is), if Russia and China are prominent in influencing our economic struggle, why would they take any steps to reduce or eliminate that pressure?

 

[rutgersdave]

Kind of OT, but our local pool is closing because they can’t find any lifeguards. I talked to one of the board members and he said he can’t explain it, they had a waiting list of lifeguards up to 2020 and the bottom dropped out. They even significantly raised pay and that didn’t attract anyone.

As someone who is only 31, I struggle to wrap my head around this as I’m not that far removed from working part time jobs in college/high school. I keep hearing this is a direct impact of inflation/stagflation but that doesn’t square with me.

For those who were around during the 70s/80s stagflationary period, did small businesses struggle to find employees due to the perceived imbalance between pay, effort, and cost of living?

Saw this on TV, there are about 300,000 public pools and about 1/3 100,000 will not open because no lifeguards. Kids going to cause trouble when the pools aren’t open. They had a 70 years old who was going to be a lifeguard who was during her teens. Immigration restrictions, legal and illegal, is probably part of the cause. Legal immigration down 1 million last 4 years and illegal, supposedly doing a great job, down 3 Millions. There’s 4 million right there. When they stopped the illegal, they needed to increase the legals but a lot of American think the US is being overrun by immigrants.

no employment problems back in the 70/80’s, plenty of people around.

 

[rutgersdave]

My two previous posts just tells me it’s going to be worst than I thought a couple weeks ago when markets going to 30-35%, instead more like 40-50% down. Cramer normally a positive person buy buy buy like T2K.

 

[T2Kplus20]

That’s the plan. We are about to close on our new home soon, will rebalance our long term investments once we close. A lot of our investment strategy has involved building our down payment and beefing up our emergency fund to factor in homeownership, so things were more conservative and liquid. Now that those objectives are complete it’s time to rebalance for the long term.

+1
Down payment and home is key for wealth building. Emergency funds are super critical for peace of mind. At least 6-12 months, but do what makes you and your family comfortable.

But make sure to add to your investments on schedule and regularly, even just via a work 401k. I have 15 years on you and will be doing the same for another 15 years!

 

[RUDead]

Today's inflation is mostly due to conflict and COVID, not monetary policy (which means, lots of fear and emotion). The Fed is going to have to take less action than the market thinks since inflation will plummet once Putin and China are done doing what they do.

That isn't true. You have been dead wrong about inflation since last summer and now you are falling for the latest inflation talking point.

This is the truth about inflation:

Milton Friedman: It is always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon. It's always and everywhere, a result of too much money, of a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than an output. Moreover, in the modern era, the important next step is to recognize that today, governments control the quantity of money. So that as a result, inflation in the United States is made in Washington and nowhere else.

 

[Knight Owl]

That isn't true. You have been dead wrong about inflation since last summer and now you are falling for the latest inflation talking point.

This is the truth about inflation:

Milton Friedman: It is always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon. It's always and everywhere, a result of too much money, of a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than an output. Moreover, in the modern era, the important next step is to recognize that today, governments control the quantity of money. So that as a result, inflation in the United States is made in Washington and nowhere else.

Except when it is also supply constraints (low output in Milton’s statement) and pent up demand from lockdowns gone wild. We haven’t seen a pandemic on this scale in a hundred years and Trump’s attempts to change supply chains through tariffs came at a bad time since he did it right before the worst pandemic since the Spanish flu.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Except when it is supply constraints. We haven’t seen a pandemic on this scale in a hundred years and Trump’s attempts to change supply chains through tariffs came at a bad time since he did it right before the worst pandemic in a hundred years.

Bingo. This caused the inflation in the first place and then Putin went Putin and supercharged the energy market. Not a mystery here, even Powell talks about it.

 

[Joey Bags]

Saw this on TV, there are about 300,000 public pools and about 1/3 100,000 will not open because no lifeguards. Kids going to cause trouble when the pools aren’t open. They had a 70 years old who was going to be a lifeguard who was during her teens. Immigration restrictions, legal and illegal, is probably part of the cause. Legal immigration down 1 million last 4 years and illegal, supposedly doing a great job, down 3 Millions. There’s 4 million right there. When they stopped the illegal, they needed to increase the legals but a lot of American think the US is being overrun by immigrants.

no employment problems back in the 70/80’s, plenty of people around.

I’ve never met an illegal immigrant lifeguard in my life haha, at least not in NJ.

 

[tom1944]

My two previous posts just tells me it’s going to be worst than I thought a couple weeks ago when markets going to 30-35%, instead more like 40-50% down. Cramer normally a positive person buy buy buy like T2K.

For how long?

Like the 70's where the market was flat for the decade or less than 3 years?

 

[tom1944]

I’ve never met an illegal immigrant lifeguard in my life haha, at least not in NJ.

We did not need immigrants

My siblings were born between 1957 and 1969 and while there were 5 of us there were plenty of families with more. The largest I am aware of had 13 but there were plenty of families between 5 and 12 kids

Every kid I knew had to work

Besides the Orthodox Jewish families I do not know any young family with more than 3 kids and hardly any have 3. It is mostly 1 0r 2 kids

 

[rutgersdave]

I’ve never met an illegal immigrant lifeguard in my life haha, at least not in NJ.

you met probably met 3-8 lifeguard in your young life not the 300,000 lifeguards necessary.

 

[RU Cheese]

Saw this on TV, there are about 300,000 public pools and about 1/3 100,000 will not open because no lifeguards. Kids going to cause trouble when the pools aren’t open. They had a 70 years old who was going to be a lifeguard who was during her teens. Immigration restrictions, legal and illegal, is probably part of the cause. Legal immigration down 1 million last 4 years and illegal, supposedly doing a great job, down 3 Millions. There’s 4 million right there. When they stopped the illegal, they needed to increase the legals but a lot of American think the US is being overrun by immigrants.

no employment problems back in the 70/80’s, plenty of people around.

Terrible take. You need lifeguards for safety, and more importantly, insurance reasons. No way illegal immigrants are the majority of lifegaurds.

 

[rutgersdave]

Terrible take. You need lifeguards for safety, and more importantly, insurance reasons. No way illegal immigrants are the majority of lifegaurds.

Million legal immigrants less over the 4 years. You explain where the 100,000 lifeguards went to especially when hourly rates are like $16-23 hour. Almost every job category they are understaffed.

Someone has to do the work the illegals did previously, maybe those lifeguards decided to do their jobs, considering their jobs were seasonal.

 

[RUDead]

Some good info in here for those interested in the capitulation question:

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[mdk01]

Saw this on TV, there are about 300,000 public pools and about 1/3 100,000 will not open because no lifeguards. Kids going to cause trouble when the pools aren’t open. They had a 70 years old who was going to be a lifeguard who was during her teens. Immigration restrictions, legal and illegal, is probably part of the cause. Legal immigration down 1 million last 4 years and illegal, supposedly doing a great job, down 3 Millions. There’s 4 million right there. When they stopped the illegal, they needed to increase the legals but a lot of American think the US is being overrun by immigrants.

no employment problems back in the 70/80’s, plenty of people around.

Immigration had nothing to do with lifeguards in the 70s. It was HS kids, college kids and a few teachers earning summer money. They should be available in 2022.

 

[rutgersdave]

Immigration had nothing to do with lifeguards in the 70s. It was HS kids, college kids and a few teachers earning summer money. They should be available in 2022.

We‘re not talking about immigration in the 70’s. IMMIGRATION IN 2022. The lifeguards might decide to work in restaurant jobs or construction that immigrants use to do instead of taking that seasonal job as a lifeguard.

Also, how about the 30-50 million jobs that the Chinese workers were doing that we want transferred back to the US? Maybe, we brought back only 2-3 millions jobs that have to be performed by someone but we don’t have the workers. Hourly wages have to go up for employers fighting for the workers.

Inflation doesn’t explain the shortage of workers. There were approx 10 million open jobs available, why? Some of them due to retirement but there are other reasons, reduction of legal and illegal immigrants and jobs being created from moving them back from China to the US.

 

[RUAldo]

We not talking about immigration in the 70’s. IMMIGRATION IN 2022. The lifeguards might decide to work in restaurant jobs or construction that immigrants use to do instead of taking that seasonal job as a lifeguard.

Also, how about the 30-50 million jobs that the Chinese workers were doing that we want transferred back to the US? Maybe, we brought back only 2-3 millions jobs that have to be performed by someone but we don’t have the workers. Hourly wages have to go up for employers fighting for the workers.

Inflation doesn’t explain the shortage of workers. There were approx 10 million open jobs available, why? Some of them due to retirement but there are other reasons, reduction of legal and illegal immigrants and jobs being created from moving them back from China to the US.

So many kids that would otherwise seek summer jobs are too busy with sports and camps now.

 

[rutgersdave]

So many kids that would otherwise seek summer jobs are too busy with sports and camps now.

Were’t they busy with sports and camps 5-6 years ago? Maybe the demographic has changed and there are less teenagers? I don’t know how you access that information.

I really don’t care about any of this, I’m going to make a killing in the market when it drop further. They are going to kill the economy trying to kill inflation. All the wage increases aren’t explained by oil increases.

 

[mdk01]

We‘re not talking about immigration in the 70’s. IMMIGRATION IN 2022. The lifeguards might decide to work in restaurant jobs or construction that immigrants use to do instead of taking that seasonal job as a lifeguard.

Also, how about the 30-50 million jobs that the Chinese workers were doing that we want transferred back to the US? Maybe, we brought back only 2-3 millions jobs that have to be performed by someone but we don’t have the workers. Hourly wages have to go up for employers fighting for the workers.

Inflation doesn’t explain the shortage of workers. There were approx 10 million open jobs available, why? Some of them due to retirement but there are other reasons, reduction of legal and illegal immigrants and jobs being created from moving them back from China to the US.

What student in his/her right mind choose a restaurant job over being a lifeguard for the summer?

 

[bac2therac]

Million legal immigrants less over the 4 years. You explain where the 100,000 lifeguards went to especially when hourly rates are like $16-23 hour. Almost every job category they are understaffed.

Someone has to do the work the illegals did previously, maybe those lifeguards decided to do their jobs, considering their jobs were seasonal.

This is devoid from reality re -who lifeguards

 

[Steve91562]

Kind of OT, but our local pool is closing because they can’t find any lifeguards. I talked to one of the board members and he said he can’t explain it, they had a waiting list of lifeguards up to 2020 and the bottom dropped out. They even significantly raised pay and that didn’t attract anyone.

As someone who is only 31, I struggle to wrap my head around this as I’m not that far removed from working part time jobs in college/high school. I keep hearing this is a direct impact of inflation/stagflation but that doesn’t square with me.

For those who were around during the 70s/80s stagflationary period, did small businesses struggle to find employees due to the perceived imbalance between pay, effort, and cost of living?

Ha, ha, I was a lifeguard in the late 70's. Best job I ever had. Unions were stronger, but don't think we had a labor shortage in the 70's.

I know the summer job force participation by teens has decreased over the years. It was 50% back then, but I think only 25-30% now from a graph I saw last time I looked it up.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Good advice:

U.S. Stock Crash Is 'Huge' Opportunity to Cash in: Top Investor

Ron Baron likened the economic opportunity Friday to the one he had when he founded his investment management firm in 1982.

www.newsweek.com

 

[RU-05]

Kind of OT, but our local pool is closing because they can’t find any lifeguards. I talked to one of the board members and he said he can’t explain it, they had a waiting list of lifeguards up to 2020 and the bottom dropped out. They even significantly raised pay and that didn’t attract anyone.

As someone who is only 31, I struggle to wrap my head around this as I’m not that far removed from working part time jobs in college/high school. I keep hearing this is a direct impact of inflation/stagflation but that doesn’t square with me.

For those who were around during the 70s/80s stagflationary period, did small businesses struggle to find employees due to the perceived imbalance between pay, effort, and cost of living?

Strikes me as 16-18 year olds and young adults not wanting to work, and it goes beyond just lifegaurding.

 

[RU-05]

That isn't true. You have been dead wrong about inflation since last summer and now you are falling for the latest inflation talking point.

This is the truth about inflation:

Milton Friedman: It is always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon. It's always and everywhere, a result of too much money, of a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than an output. Moreover, in the modern era, the important next step is to recognize that today, governments control the quantity of money. So that as a result, inflation in the United States is made in Washington and nowhere else.

I don't see how we ignore the supply constraints when talking inflation right now.

Yes too much money, but too much money coinciding with limited supply is what is really setting it off right now.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don't see how we ignore the supply constraints when talking inflation right now.

Yes too much money, but too much money coinciding with limited supply is what is really setting it off right now.

+1.
The story of what is going on is pretty simple. Supply constraints plus Putin.

 

[RU-05]

+1.
The story of what is going on is pretty simple. Supply constraints plus Putin.

I don't think we can ignore the massive increase in money supply either though. Like most things in life, it's pretty complicated.

Kind of like the oil production situation in the US. Yeah, it's part Biden, but it's also part Oil companies enjoying profits(and to be fair the tech giants were enjoying record margins for the previous 2 years), and it's also part labor shortage. Multiple factors at play.

And diminished US oil production is yet another factor in inflation.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don't think we can ignore the massive increase in money supply either though. Like most things in life, it's pretty complicated.

Kind of like the oil production situation in the US. Yeah, it's part Biden, but it's also part Oil companies enjoying profits(and to be fair the tech giants were enjoying record margins for the previous 2 years), and it's also part labor shortage. Multiple factors at play.

And diminished US oil production is yet another factor in inflation.

The extra money was fine until COVID-related supply issues increased. Inflation was likely "transitory" to some extend prior to omicron hitting as a 3rd major pandemic wave. And of course, then Putin when Putin.

 

[RUDead]

I don't see how we ignore the supply constraints when talking inflation right now.

Yes too much money, but too much money coinciding with limited supply is what is really setting it off right now.

I'm not ignoring that at all. That's why I said only a drop in demand will move the price lower in the short run. Can't fix these supply side issues quickly.

 

[RU-05]

The extra money was fine until COVID-related supply issues increased. Inflation was likely "transitory" to some extend prior to omicron hitting as a 3rd major pandemic wave. And of course, then Putin when Putin.

This is true too. Inflation was a thing in 2021, but it wasn't back breaking. Not only has the invasion elongated the inflation timeline, but it also supercharged it.

Problem with Putin being Putin is, that conflict doesn't have an end in sight, and sounds like the grain shortage issue really hasn't worked it's way into the system yet.

Not to mention what happens if China decides to go after Taiwan. Then we are talking another year or couple years or more.

 

[T2Kplus20]

This is true too. Inflation was a thing in 2021, but it wasn't back breaking. Not only has the invasion elongated the inflation timeline, but it also supercharged it.

Problem with Putin being Putin is, that conflict doesn't have an end in sight, and sounds like the grain shortage issue really hasn't worked it's way into the system yet.

Not to mention what happens if China decides to go after Taiwan. Then we are talking another year or couple years or more.

If NATO, EU, and US just said f it and let Putin have Ukraine the market would be much higher now. LOL! :)

I believe the end of the active conflict is closer than we think. Putin's military is inching forward, but at a steep cost. It is getting ground down and the world is watching this happen. He needs to save face, which means likely going Crimea 2.0 with eastern URK and calling it a day.

 

[RU-05]

I'm not ignoring that at all. That's why I said only a drop in demand will move the price lower in the short run. Can't fix these supply side issues quickly.

Ya and this has been super frustrating, not just for Powell, or the markets, but everyday people as it's just difficult to get stuff.

Potential 3rd rail here, but with all these people seemingly looking for opportunity at the southern border, why isn't that supply being tapped in terms of labor?

I mean can't Mexico hire a bunch of people to ramp up their oil supply? Never mind all the jobs in the US. I mean thousands of people looking for work, and all sorts of job openings that aren't being filled? Is no one seeing the disconnect?

Feel like there are solutions here but people want to focus on the problems.

 

[RU-05]

If NATO, EU, and US just said f it and let Putin have Ukraine the market would be much higher now. LOL! :)

I believe the end of the active conflict is closer than we think. Putin's military is inching forward, but at a steep cost. It is getting ground down and the world is watching this happen. He needs to save face, which means likely going Crimea 2.0 with eastern URK and calling it a day.

I'm hoping for the reverse. I'm of the opinion that the western world should, if need be, deal with the pain of another year of this if the end result is Russia losing/Putin getting the boot, and Russia turning more Eurocentric.

It's been my thought since the beginning, but why does Russia have to be our adversary? Can't we all just get along? ;)

 

[Knight Owl]

I don't think we can ignore the massive increase in money supply either though. Like most things in life, it's pretty complicated.

Kind of like the oil production situation in the US. Yeah, it's part Biden, but it's also part Oil companies enjoying profits(and to be fair the tech giants were enjoying record margins for the previous 2 years), and it's also part labor shortage. Multiple factors at play.

And diminished US oil production is yet another factor in inflation.

Biden has prevented exactly zero wells from being built in the US. Permian Basin production has been picking up steam of late but overall the US is still more than a million bpd behind where it was pre-pandemic…and that is on the oil companies as they have been very deliberate in ramping back up.

 

[RU-05]

Biden has prevented exactly zero wells from being built in the US. Permian Basin production has been picking up steam of late but overall the US is still more than a million bpd behind where it was pre-pandemic…and that is on the oil companies as they have been very deliberate in ramping back up.

I'm not sure how much is just talking point, but we have seen how foreshadowing does effect markets. The market started it's downward slide when the FR's talk turned hawkish, not when it actually started tightening. Oil began to creep higher with the threat of Russia invading Ukraine before the actual invasion(and the sanctions that came with it). Oil now just took a dump this week on fear of a recession, not an actual drop in demand.

So I wonder what would happen if Biden said, let's build some pipelines and open up some more land to drilling. Not that I even support such measures, but markets do react when leaders announce plans.


Somewhat of a different point, but coming in Biden wanted to curb oil production, oil companies did just that. Odd to now complain about oil companies curbing production.

 

[mdk01]

I'm not sure how much is just talking point, but we have seen how foreshadowing does effect markets. The market started it's downward slide when the FR's talk turned hawkish, not when it actually started tightening. Oil began to creep higher with the threat of Russia invading Ukraine before the actual invasion(and the sanctions that came with it). Oil now just took a dump this week on fear of a recession, not an actual drop in demand.

So I wonder what would happen if Biden said, let's build some pipelines and open up some more land to drilling. Not that I even support such measures, but markets do react when leaders announce plans.


Somewhat of a different point, but coming in Biden wanted to curb oil production, oil companies did just that. Odd to now complain about oil companies curbing production.

How about reversing the Keystone decision as opposed to genuflecting towards Maduro and the woefully inefficient Venezuelan oil industry? Last time I checked Canada was still an ally with an excellent human rights record.

 

[Knight Owl]

How about reversing the Keystone decision as opposed to genuflecting towards Maduro and the woefully inefficient Venezuelan oil industry? Last time I checked Canada was still an ally with an excellent human rights record.

People are still confused. There are plenty of pipelines. Oil companies have plenty (this is a huge understatement) of drillable land right now…as in right this minute…as in no need to ask anyone…as in they can drill baby drill…as in they could get back to pre-pandemic production and then some without a single new acre of land…as in they don’t need a letter from the American Petroleum Institute…as in just put the holes in the ground and insert sucker rods…