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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

There is a pipeline to get the Canadian oil to the Gulf

The last 2 days gasoline in my area dropped about 10 cents. What is the reason?

I believe Enbridge 3 does.

It dropped 5 cents by me. That amount could simply be the completion of the switch to summer blend, but could also be other reasons. If it drops another 50 cents it will be worth a closer look.
 
Permian oil is light sweet. Low margin for refiners. Canadian oil sands produces bitumen, very heavy oil that sells at a discount and is very profitable for complex Gulf Coast refineries. Meanwhile, Venezuela crude is also very dirty. Yet this admin seems to be encouraging that production over our neighbor to the north. Why? Venezuela is a classic socialist economic nightmare. They certainly made everyone equal and poor under Chavez. Anyone with a brain departed. Oil company workers were fired if they didn't vote the right way. They drove Western technology out. Production steadily and rapidly declined. PDVSA is a shell of what it was 20 years ago. Environmentalists must be thrilled that production of fossil fuels dropped while the population starved and fled. Now, Biden is reaching out to ask them to produce more. Come on now.
I’m not a refinery expert but I remember reading an article months ago which stated the Keystone XL a) would have benefitted political activists, Koch Enterprises specifically… so I’m not surprised at the right wing media backlash when XL was cancelled.
b) would have had a very negative effect on gasoline prices on the west coast (surprisingly large price increases) due to the fact that refinery capabilities in the Midwest and maybe the gulf would have to be altered.
Bitumen is basically tar which is diluted so they can even move the stuff through pipelines.
 
I think the symbol changed from FB to META. Did that cause some automatic selling for some reason?
That happened a week or two ago, not related to that. They had some settlement with the gov’t over some lawsuit with home ads but I don’t think that was it either. I don’t think there was any news out in the public really.

Edit : forgot MZ also showed some prototype headsets for the whole metaverse thing. Maybe they reminded people just how much that endeavor is going to cost them lol.
 
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That happened a week or two ago, not related to that. They had some settlement with the gov’t over some lawsuit with home ads but I don’t think that was it either. I don’t think there was any news out in the public really.

Edit : forgot MZ also showed some prototype headsets for the whole metaverse thing. Maybe they reminded people just how much that endeavor is going to cost them lol.
I can’t think of a single worse strategic blunder than the boondoggle known as the metaverse
 
I still don't understand the need and value of the metaverse.....yet.
Like FB, I think it's entertainment?

Question imo is, will people want to wear headsets? People looking at their phones all the time seemed weird at one point too, but wearing the headset is a very big step beyond that.
 
There is a pipeline to get the Canadian oil to the Gulf

The last 2 days gasoline in my area dropped about 10 cents. What is the reason?
Commodity price is down a bunch, I think on recession fears. That's slowly trickling down to gas prices.
 
There is a pipeline to get the Canadian oil to the Gulf

The last 2 days gasoline in my area dropped about 10 cents. What is the reason?
Insufficient takeaway capacity. Look, people don't spend billions of dollars building pipelines just for the heck of it. There has to be demand for product to be moved. If the market price at terminus A is X, and terminus B is X+Y, it makes economic sense to build the transportation infrastructure to move it if Y covers you costs plus a suitable risk adjusted return on capital. Sure, if more Alberta crude moves south to the Gulf, less goes west to be refined on the west coast or be exported to Asia. BTW, crude is moving south on trains and trucks that have massive carbon footprints compared to piping it. The probability of a spill goes up massively.
 
Like FB, I think it's entertainment?

Question imo is, will people want to wear headsets? People looking at their phones all the time seemed weird at one point too, but wearing the headset is a very big step beyond that.
Sounds like a good side project to diversify FB's business. Not a main focus yet.
 
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Insufficient takeaway capacity. Look, people don't spend billions of dollars building pipelines just for the heck of it. There has to be demand for product to be moved. If the market price at terminus A is X, and terminus B is X+Y, it makes economic sense to build the transportation infrastructure to move it if Y covers you costs plus a suitable risk adjusted return on capital. Sure, if more Alberta crude moves south to the Gulf, less goes west to be refined on the west coast or be exported to Asia. BTW, crude is moving south on trains and trucks that have massive carbon footprints compared to piping it. The probability of a spill goes up massively.
Canada is expanding pipeline capacity to the west coast. XL was never all or nothing from a Canadian production perspective. The result is more oil than before gets piped to the coast.
 
Like FB, I think it's entertainment?

Question imo is, will people want to wear headsets? People looking at their phones all the time seemed weird at one point too, but wearing the headset is a very big step beyond that.

Ever see Woody Allen's movie "Sleeper"? We're headed for the orgasmatron.
 
Ever see Woody Allen's movie "Sleeper"? We're headed for the orgasmatron.
In my limited experience with VR is that it's really cool, really interesting.

But I can't help but wonder what it would mean for society if we were all investing a significant amount of time to VR.

Never mind the Matrix like implications.
 
In my limited experience with VR is that it's really cool, really interesting.

But I can't help but wonder what it would mean for society if we were all investing a significant amount of time to VR.

Never mind the Matrix like implications.
I always got the impression Meta is trying to be the first to get to the Ready Player One model and start the future of VR.
 
I always got the impression Meta is trying to be the first to get to the Ready Player One model and start the future of VR.
My wife and I joke about Dr. Cynthia Walker, a professor we had at RU-SCILS that said 20 plus years ago that someday we'd all have digital avatars and would do most of our daily activities using them. I'm not one to bet against Zuck but some of their applications seem off. Even the one on the frontpage of their website, of a grandfather/granddaughter? virtually fishing together just seems strange. https://about.facebook.com/
 
My wife and I joke about Dr. Cynthia Walker, a professor we had at RU-SCILS that said 20 plus years ago that someday we'd all have digital avatars and would do most of our daily activities using them. I'm not one to bet against Zuck but some of their applications seem off. Even the one on the frontpage of their website, of a grandfather/granddaughter? virtually fishing together just seems strange. https://about.facebook.com/
I’ve always like Zuck and have owned FB for years. However, making such a bold announcement was unnecessary and ill-timed especially when he doesn’t even have a go-to-market product yet. It’s like if Tesla changed its name to RocketShip because they are going to manufacture consumer rocket ships we can fly in space one day like the Jetsons. Zuck should have taken the Alphabet approach with renaming the company.
 
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My wife and I joke about Dr. Cynthia Walker, a professor we had at RU-SCILS that said 20 plus years ago that someday we'd all have digital avatars and would do most of our daily activities using them. I'm not one to bet against Zuck but some of their applications seem off. Even the one on the frontpage of their website, of a grandfather/granddaughter? virtually fishing together just seems strange. https://about.facebook.com/
I'll take the opposite viewpoint here.

Say you live far away from relatives, you can go VR and do stuff together beyond just talking on the phone. Multiple family members in different parts of the world? Virtual family reunions?

Unlike say, having your kid playing real sports as opposed to VR sports. There may not be that real world opportunity to do certain things with certain people.

And, long term, grand parents of today, who grew up pre video games, are much less likely to go VR then grand parents 10-20 years from now who grew up playing video games.
 
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I’ve always like Zuck and have owned FB for years. However, making such a bold announcement was unnecessary and ill-timed especially when he doesn’t even have a go-to-market product yet. It’s like if Tesla changed its name to RocketShip because they are going to manufacture consumer rocket ships we can fly in space one day like the Jetsons. Zuck should have taken the Alphabet approach with renaming the company.
Ya, Zuck seemed to jump at the metaverse hype that was pushing stocks for a bit.

Maybe not unlike Square turning to Block, but an even more extreme/premature version.
 
Ya, Zuck seemed to jump at the metaverse hype that was pushing stocks for a bit.

Maybe not unlike Square turning to Block, but an even more extreme/premature version.
I made some good money with FB in the past but then I thought FB could hold PE @22. Boy, I was wrong and lost some but didn’t hold a large quantity. I still hold a small quantity and still think it’s undervalued. At some pt, the market will realize and value it properly.
 
I made some good money with FB in the past but then I thought FB could hold PE @22. Boy, I was wrong and lost some but didn’t hold a large quantity. I still hold a small quantity and still think it’s undervalued. At some pt, the market will realize and value it properly.
I was up huge for years but it’s eroded away to small gain.
 
Canada is expanding pipeline capacity to the west coast. XL was never all or nothing from a Canadian production perspective. The result is more oil than before gets piped to the coast.
Agreed but the expansion of the westward capacity took on urgency once XL was blocked. There were already westward pipelines from Calgary. No one ever said different. But there was considerable green and tribal opposition to the westward pipes. There are massive reserves in Alberta but it costs more to get the bitumen out of the ground when compared to places like Saudi Arabia. At today's prices, it is very profitable to produce it. You can be sure the big producers would want to have options to send it either south or west. Whatever maximizes returns. Why make it hard on them and buy from places like Venezuela?
 
Meh type of day for the markets. Powell held serve in front of congress today.
 
Agreed but the expansion of the westward capacity took on urgency once XL was blocked. There were already westward pipelines from Calgary. No one ever said different. But there was considerable green and tribal opposition to the westward pipes. There are massive reserves in Alberta but it costs more to get the bitumen out of the ground when compared to places like Saudi Arabia. At today's prices, it is very profitable to produce it. You can be sure the big producers would want to have options to send it either south or west. Whatever maximizes returns. Why make it hard on them and buy from places like Venezuela?
Their westward piping expansion was roughly equivalent to the XL. I’m sure however, the Russia situation has changed everyone’s production forecasts now.
The US is not adding refinery capacity in the gulf and the Permian can more than make up for the bpd that would have come from Canada. So XL may have simply been used to pipe bitumen from Canada to the Gulf just to export that crude overseas. Canada should perhaps consider expanding their eastbound piping from Alberta in order to get crude to Europe due to Putin’s commitment to war with European democracies. Good thing American democracy is safe and sound…
 
I made some good money with FB in the past but then I thought FB could hold PE @22. Boy, I was wrong and lost some but didn’t hold a large quantity. I still hold a small quantity and still think it’s undervalued. At some pt, the market will realize and value it properly.
I don't completely get the Metaverse thing but there are a lot of things I don't get that turned out well. I still like the "old" biz model and wonder if Reels might be growing just on my own experience of running into more Reels vids than TikTok ones lately, obviously that's just anecdotal one off so who knows. I feel like 125-135 area could be THE bottom if it goes down further but we'll see. Still like the company longer term.
 
Cramer just mentioned this on CNBC that CLX has been up for the last few days on no reason at all. I've been wondering the same. That was one of the staples I've mentioned and it was just about to come into my range to pick it up and it's turned. Up abut 15 bucks or 12% in the last few days on really no news. I have seen some strength though recently in the yield area though, maybe oversold bounce? CLX seems to be outsized though on a relative basis compared to the rest. I've seen about 7% bounces in others.
 
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Cramer just mentioned this on CNBC that CLX has been up for the last few days on no reason at all. I've been wondering the same. That was one of the staples I've mentioned and it was just about to come into my range to pick it up and it's turned. Up abut 15 bucks or 12% in the last few days on really no news. I have seen some strength though recently in the yield area though, maybe oversold bounce? CLX seems to be outsized though on a relative basis compared to the rest. I've seen about 7% bounces in others.
PE is still high 36.7 but the stock price is lower than pre covid.

I think that the market goes down again in July when earnings come out and also when people see their June statements.
 
I made some good money with FB in the past but then I thought FB could hold PE @22. Boy, I was wrong and lost some but didn’t hold a large quantity. I still hold a small quantity and still think it’s undervalued. At some pt, the market will realize and value it properly.

Burry’s bet on big tech is clearly noteworthy.

Tech and growth stocks have been out of favor for nearly half a year. Adding these two stocks to the portfolio for the first time is a contrarian move. Burry’s portfolio now includes 6,500 shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc. and 80,000 shares of Meta Platforms Inc., the parent company of Facebook. They’re his fourth- and sixth-largest holdings, respectively.

The move could be seen as a vote of confidence in digital advertising. It could also be a signal of undervaluation. Both stocks are trading at roughly 13 and 20 times forward earnings, respectively.
 
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I made some good money with FB in the past but then I thought FB could hold PE @22. Boy, I was wrong and lost some but didn’t hold a large quantity. I still hold a small quantity and still think it’s undervalued. At some pt, the market will realize and value it properly.
I guess the market is thinking the fwd earnings may come in, and thus the fwd p/e is not as great as current p/e.

Also have to wonder that even if and when FB finds it's footing, does it outpace other companies or the overall market,
 
PE is still high 36.7 but the stock price is lower than pre covid.

I think that the market goes down again in July when earnings come out and also when people see their June statements.
I think 105-115 is an okay area of support and there would be a decent yield in that area as well. It was earning 5-6 bucks a share before the crazy pandemic bubble and would like to think it can get back to that earnings in a little time now that the bubble has popped. That would put it at 20-25 PE which isn't great but not terrible either.
 

Also CLX powering even higher intraday...up 5% now. 15% in the last few days. That's just crazy...inside info on a takover lol..I mean geez.
 
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Burry’s bet on big tech is clearly noteworthy.

Tech and growth stocks have been out of favor for nearly half a year. Adding these two stocks to the portfolio for the first time is a contrarian move. Burry’s portfolio now includes 6,500 shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc. and 80,000 shares of Meta Platforms Inc., the parent company of Facebook. They’re his fourth- and sixth-largest holdings, respectively.

The move could be seen as a vote of confidence in digital advertising. It could also be a signal of undervaluation. Both stocks are trading at roughly 13 and 20 times forward earnings, respectively.
Bear capitulation? :)
 
FEDEX was a good report:

FedEx — Shares of the shipping company rose more than 3% after FedEx issued upbeat guidance for its full fiscal year, projecting a rise in adjusted earnings. FedEx reported mixed results for its recently completed fiscal fourth quarter, with $6.87 in adjusted earnings per share on $24.39 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $6.86 in earnings per share on $24.56 billion of revenue.

 
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