OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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SOS…not sure how that’s possible when the Fed has made it clear that they will continue to tighten until inflation decreases significantly. There has to be some pain ahead or else the Fed will tighten even more aggressively IMO. My guess is we have a rough year-end and then start working towards ATHs in mid to late 2023 or early 2024.
I try not to let the tax tail wag the dog but it’s always a factor for me, especially as a buy and hold investor. I can see going to cash or a cash equivalent in a qualified plan where it wouldn’t be a taxable event but wouldn’t want to do it in a taxable account—just my personal preference. Don’t you get killed by long term capital gain tax when you go to cash or do you just figure that’s your best plan even after taxes?
Inflation is already decreasing significantly. You are behind the curve my friendly bear. CPI and PPI are lagging metrics. Watch the video.
moving to cash and picking my spots over the past 6mos and then when rumblings about covid allowed me to bank. I don't care about tax consequences as I'm still very far ahead. Basing investment decisions on tax implications is foolish imho. You make 80cents or 65 cents on the dollar, you're still making more than you had.
Don't get me wrong, buy and hold has it's place
No chance…it’s going to take a long time to get to 2% target.
Fed expected to stick with hawkish rate hikes until data show further slowing in inflation
With the CPI and PPI numbers softening, markets have started to moderate the Fed's rate hike expectations.
Thanks I understand your position. For me, I never felt good trying to time when to sell and when to get back in. I take profits from time to time but don’t exit a position altogether unless I feel something fundamentally changed that makes me think the stock is not still a long term investment. I have some positions I’ve held for 30+ years with significant embedded long term gains that I plan on leaving to the kids with a stepped up basis. Lots of ways to win, though, and that’s great!
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Agree 100%. I got burned too many times early in my investing career worrying about tax implications. My intention is always buy and hold but market dynamics and company performance doesn’t make it that easy (at least for me).
agree! lots of ways to play things
I recently sold out of a bio being bought with all cash deal so no benefit to holding till yr end deal price as it won't move much. With that money, I'll play the ebb and flows of things as I expect a pullback. I have some i've held meeting the long term cap gains so they will stay.
I do think the markets will have tough time achieving past performance measures for the next decade or so
@T2Kplus20
careful with that inflation view, everyday items are really not down and margins are being squeezed to offset this so you get hit both ways. Lots of companies are reporting issues moving costs down the line.
It's not an all or nothing game. The market cares about it going down which is happening (and the Fed would be fine with 3%'ish as per JPow). You need to stop thinking binary. This is about expectations much more than absolute values.No chance…it’s going to take a long time to get to 2% target.
Fed expected to stick with hawkish rate hikes until data show further slowing in inflation
With the CPI and PPI numbers softening, markets have started to moderate the Fed's rate hike expectations.www.cnbc.com
Short-lived, though. lt'll be back above $110 come late fall-early winter. Nat gas and fuel will be in short supply in Europe. Unfortunately.
After reading this board, I’m getting a little more caution about the market and sold some of my profitable stocks back to 70% cash. Going back to my seasonal trade, buy low sell high. I’ll wait for the next drop to buy but I did just buy CVX. Only 3% from my ATH.
The market always goes down after earning season. You just don’t exactly when it will drop, majority of the time right after earnings seasons and other times right before earning season. Everyone has their way of making money. I still question if we ever see the 25%-30% drop.
What do you think will happen when we see another large decrease in inflation with the August CPI and PPI? Based on leading indicators, its highly likely.
Be careful.
... "another large decrease in inflation"? The food index continued to rise, increasing 1.1 percent in July, and the food at home index rose 1.3 percent. You can cherry pick, yes. But those cherries will be more expensive in August. LOL.
Yes, ANOTHER large decrease in inflation. MoM inflation was 0.0 last month (which means aggregate prices didn't go up at all). August will likely show a negative MoM data point which is deflationary.
You lost me = MoM was basically flat and “August will likely show a negative”…where is the “”another large decrease”?
What i warned about earlier just hit the wires; producers and stores fight over costs allocation. Its not cheaper tk, only u dont recognize it yet. Its there
More positive news for DIS. I wouldn't mind if the spun off ESPN. I'd think maybe a good possibility a AMZN or AAPL might scoop it up if they did.
www.cnbc.com
Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb buys a new stake in Disney and pushes for ESPN spinoff
In a letter to Disney CEO Bob Chapek, Loeb said there is a strong case that the ESPN business should be spun off.
July's 0.0 MoM was a huge decrease from the 1.3% increase in June.
Please pay attention! :)
I posted a story on this before. It's official now. Looks like Paramount+ coming to Walmart+ subscribers. I agree with this strategy. Paramounts and Peacocks and smaller services don't have enough content to really drive subscribers to come. IMO they need to bundle with each other or something else..in this case Walmart+
www.cnbc.com
Walmart strikes exclusive streaming deal to give Paramount+ to Walmart+ subscribers
Walmart has reached a deal with Paramount Global to offer its streaming service as a perk of the retailer's subscription service, Walmart+.
So Walmart+ is a real thing? Thought it was just an idea. Interesting.....I posted a story on this before. It's official now. Looks like Paramount+ coming to Walmart+ subscribers. I agree with this strategy. Paramounts and Peacocks and smaller services don't have enough content to really drive subscribers to come. IMO they need to bundle with each other or something else..in this case Walmart+
Walmart strikes exclusive streaming deal to give Paramount+ to Walmart+ subscribers
Walmart has reached a deal with Paramount Global to offer its streaming service as a perk of the retailer's subscription service, Walmart+.
It's Walmart's version of Prime and now they have a media segment too just like Prime. It's nowhere near close to the size of Prime though. From Paramount's perspective though, any additional subscriber is a good thing.
Underpromise overdeliver.
www.cnbc.com
Walmart sticks with second-half outlook after earnings beat expectations
The retailer's profits are under pressure, as consumers feel pinched by inflation and buy fewer high-margin items, such as apparel and electronics.
You can see this set-up miles away! Good for WMT. Play the expectations game.Underpromise overdeliver.
Walmart sticks with second-half outlook after earnings beat expectations
The retailer's profits are under pressure, as consumers feel pinched by inflation and buy fewer high-margin items, such as apparel and electronics.
I bought more on the dip 3 weeks ago. I’ll continue to add on any weakness and let it DRIP.
IIRC you mentioned it in the 140s and I didn't like it there but I thought where it went in these last couple dips wasn't a bad spot for it. I missed it though by a couple bucks when it dropped to 117 in May and again recently at 120. My order was set at 115 and I left it.
Hmm, I doubt I recommended it in the 140s. I’ve been in WMT since $60 and the $120s is the highest I’ve paid for it. Unless I’m confusing it with a different position of mine. Either way, WMT is one of the few stocks I don’t plan to sell for ages.
I have an old core position too and was looking to maybe add but missed it.
Did a quick look up and my mistake it was 132 you said wish you added more and someone else responded that it's at 142 so not far off from where you bought if you wanted more. Mid 130s at the time was actually not a bad area for a trade with a stop. That was about the bottom of a trading range before it broke down. Now it's back in there and we'll see if it hold in that range again. It's bumping up against the 200DMA now.
I still like the company in general and with inflation, it's more likely a go to for many. I'm always in favor investigating strong names like WMT if they get whacked. Just unfortunately missed it this time.
Speaking of retail, it was very strong today. Talking about retail "strength" lol. I wonder about the rally when I see things like this.
www.cnbc.com
Bed Bath & Beyond soars as much as 70% as meme traders talk up Ryan Cohen's call options purchase
Bed Bath & Beyond jumped as meme stock traders piled in, encouraged by GameStop Chairman Ryan Cohen placing another bet on the struggling retailer.
It's right at the 200DMA. If it can actually hold up here, that would be impressive. It's had more strength than I would have expected but I feel like it's stretched now. We'll see.
With retail this strong a serious recession isn't possible.Speaking of retail, it was very strong today. Talking about retail "strength" lol. I wonder about the rally when I see things like this.
Bed Bath & Beyond soars as much as 70% as meme traders talk up Ryan Cohen's call options purchase
Bed Bath & Beyond jumped as meme stock traders piled in, encouraged by GameStop Chairman Ryan Cohen placing another bet on the struggling retailer.
I've thought that a recession might not be a deep one if we have one but I don't know if I'd say retail is strong. It was a strong day for retail but like I said above for walmart....under promise over deliver. So it's a sort of relief that it might not be so bad, not that everything is rosy.
I actually think a pullback to what I said might resistance (4000-4100) earlier and holding that area would be healthy. Consolidation would be a good thing imo.
No problem with this. I will be buying all meaningful dips. Another good inflation report plus a 0.50% rate bump will send the S&P to 4500+.
