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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

INTC is a dog I haven't liked in a very long time but wondering if it's starting to get attractive here maybe a few bucks lower in the low 30s and then I'd say 26-28 area after that. It would be a long term play though and slog but with the desire for more domestic chip production wonder how much they could benefit from that. Dividend seems solidly covered and is currently 4%+
 
RUAldo said:
Let’s get back to stock picks = anyone have any interesting ideas? My two newest spec plays that I’m looking to buy on dips are Vacasa and Toast.
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Sold Sept 16th FTNT $48 puts, used that money to buy Sept 16th $54 calls.

It's a chart call, a year long series of dips and rips. Seven 10+% bounces off of short term lows over the past 12 months. Currently at a 3 month low.

Worst case scenario I pick up FTNT near it's 52 week low.
 
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rutgersguy1 said:
INTC is a dog I haven't liked in a very long time but wondering if it's starting to get attractive here maybe a few bucks lower in the low 30s and then I'd say 26-28 area after that. It would be a long term play though and slog but with the desire for more domestic chip production wonder how much they could benefit from that. Dividend seems solidly covered and is currently 4%+
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I bought into this thesis a couple times over the past 2 years. Bad trade each time.

Could gain traction at some point, but who knows when.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
INTC is a dog I haven't liked in a very long time but wondering if it's starting to get attractive here maybe a few bucks lower in the low 30s and then I'd say 26-28 area after that. It would be a long term play though and slog but with the desire for more domestic chip production wonder how much they could benefit from that. Dividend seems solidly covered and is currently 4%+
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Even at that level, probably better options in the semi space.
 
RU-05 said:
I bought into this thesis a couple times over the past 2 years. Bad trade each time.

Could gain traction at some point, but who knows when.
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Yea I know they've had issues over the years from one management to the next but I think valuation and future prospects could make it attractive. If it dropped into that 26-28 range I would likely pick it up. In the low 30s, it's not a bad area but not as certain there. It's hovering at MA support that's broken twice in the last 20 years, one being the crash.
 
RU-05 said:
High valuation, but the monster growth continues.
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Morningstar:

Snowflake’s Q2 Beats by Taking Its Upmarket by Storm; Shares Attractive Even With Shares Up 18%

Analyst Note | Julie Bhusal Sharma | Aug 24, 2022
Snowflake’s second quarter was an excellent one, as revenue and GAAP EPS came in well above our expectations and management’s due to a snowballing effect which has Snowflake making traction upmarket. We think such success lies in the ease of setting up and trying out the Snowflake platform, which involves little upfront costs due to the company’s consumption model.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $295 per share for no-moat Snowflake. Shares are up 18% after-hours to around $188 per share, putting Snowflake shares in 4-star, undervalued territory, given our very high uncertainty rating.

Snowflake reported second-quarter revenue of $497 million, an increase of 83% year over year. Product sales boasted revenues of $466 million, also representing an 83% year-over-year increase. Financial services was the greatest contributor to revenue but all other verticals posted healthy growth. Customer count growth remains robust, especially within the company’s base of Global 2,000 customers—which grew by 12 more customers in the quarter and altogether has an average 12-month trailing product revenue of $1.2 million. Snowflake reported quarterly GAAP losses per share of $0.70, better than we had forecasted due to product revenue outperformance.

Snowflake’s third-quarter outlook includes year-over-year growth in product revenue at a midpoint of 61%, which we think is feasible. Fiscal 2023 product revenue is guided for year-over-year revenue growth at a midpoint of 6% (an increase from previously guided 66%). Non-GAAP operating margins are expected to be 2% in the third quarter and for the overall year. Headcount remains the biggest investment in the business, as the company has already added about 1,000 net new employees this year, to date. We like this strategy—especially when it boost customer acquisition—as we see moaty beginnings for Snowflake that we think will pay off in the long run if the company continues to work quickly to obtain sticky customers.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
Yea I know they've had issues over the years from one management to the next but I think valuation and future prospects could make it attractive. If it dropped into that 26-28 range I would likely pick it up. In the low 30s, it's not a bad area but not as certain there. It's hovering at MA support that's broken twice in the last 20 years, one being the crash.
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2 questions I see regarding their turnaround.

1)How much do these factories cost? Given the inflation is it way more then they initially planned?

2)Do these factories help them get back to producing cutting edge chips?

If they can get back to that $5 eps level, put a 12x on there and you're talking a $60 stock. But the forecast is calling for sub $4 eps as far out as 2025.
 
RU-05 said:
2 questions I see regarding their turnaround.

1)How much do these factories cost? Given the inflation is it way more then they initially planned?

2)Do these factories help them get back to producing cutting edge chips?

If they can get back to that $5 eps level, put a 12x on there and you're talking a $60 stock. But the forecast is calling for sub $4 eps as far out as 2025.
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They just got a 15B capital investment from Brookfield Asset Management for the Arizona facility. I'm sure there will be state and federal benefits too.

As far as cutting edge chips INTC has often behind or delayed on those things but I think manufacturing chips for others can be a healthy and profitable venture for them down the line.

IMO it's a possible long term hold but at the right price. Their EPS took a whack last quarter and not sure that will be coming back soon. Even the dividend which has a solid yield currently I wouldn't count on fully. Like I said I'm somewhat iffy in the low 30s but in the mid 20ish area I would probably buy and hold for down the line.
 
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rutgersguy1 said:
They just got a 15B capital investment from Brookfield Asset Management for the Arizona facility. I'm sure there will be state and federal benefits too.

As far as cutting edge chips INTC has often behind or delayed on those things but I think manufacturing chips for others can be a healthy and profitable venture for them down the line.

IMO it's a possible long term hold but at the right price. Their EPS took a whack last quarter and not sure that will be coming back soon. Even the dividend which has a solid yield currently I wouldn't count on fully. Like I said I'm somewhat iffy in the low 30s but in the mid 20ish area I would probably buy and hold for down the line.
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Data center chips are the place to be.....growth, value, tech. NVDA leads the way here. MRVL is also a good future player. INTC? Not sure.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
PCE/inflation tanks. MoM turns negative. YoY inflects down.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending barely rose in July, but inflation eased considerably, which could give the Federal Reserve room to scale back its aggressive interest rate increases.

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Unfortunately, not enough to prevent Powell from talking up more rate hikes and scaring the markets. A 75 BP seems inevitable for next month.
 
RU-Hunter said:
Unfortunately, not enough to prevent Powell from talking up more rate hikes and scaring the markets. A 75 BP seems inevitable for next month.
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It's not. He is just talking tough and playing the game. If the CPI/PPI trend continues, 0.50% is a certainty. Plan well! Historically, the market knows when the winds change well before the Fed.

Buy ANY meaningful dips.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
It's not. He is just talking tough and playing the game. If the CPI/PPI trend continues, 0.50% is a certainty. Plan well! Historically, the market knows when the winds change well before the Fed.

Buy ANY meaningful dips.
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Is today a meaningful dip?
 
T2Kplus20 said:
It's not. He is just talking tough and playing the game. If the CPI/PPI trend continues, 0.50% is a certainty. Plan well! Historically, the market knows when the winds change well before the Fed.

Buy ANY meaningful dips.
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He's doing his job. The market has been oblivious. The Fed has been trying (but failing) to communicate its intent and commitment to raise rates well into 2023 to bring down inflation. Now it's a matter of how far the market drops and how long it stays there.

So the next 5 to 10 year cycle seems geared toward value, energy, commodities.
 
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RUinPinehurst said:
He's doing his job. The market has been oblivious. The Fed has been trying (but failing) to communicate its intent and commitment to raise rates well into 2023 to bring down inflation. Now it's a matter of how far the market drops and how long it stays there.

So the next 5 to 10 year cycle seems geared toward value, energy, commodities.
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^^^^^ King of the Bears

Sorry, ATHs within 6-12 months. Inflation is dropping quickly. Don't get left behind.
 
The July rally looks to be more of a head fake at this point, as investors were looking for any reason to be optimistic about inflation peaking. The $300B in college loan forgiveness is not going to help with inflation as the government keeps pumping more dollars into the economy. I don't think we see a pause in rate hikes until sometime in 2023 at the earliest.
 
RU-Hunter said:
The July rally looks to be more of a head fake at this point, as investors were looking for any reason to be optimistic about inflation peaking. The $300B in college loan forgiveness is not going to help with inflation as the government keeps pumping more dollars into the economy. I don't think we see a pause in rate hikes until sometime in 2023 at the earliest.
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Be careful with that POV. The market is optimistic about inflation because it is going down very quickly. Leading indicators don’t lie. It’s all just math.
 
RU-Hunter said:
The July rally looks to be more of a head fake at this point, as investors were looking for any reason to be optimistic about inflation peaking. The $300B in college loan forgiveness is not going to help with inflation as the government keeps pumping more dollars into the economy. I don't think we see a pause in rate hikes until sometime in 2023 at the earliest.
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Agree…we are in for a bumpy ride. The college loan forgiveness will be counter to Fed’s inflation measures although I have no idea to what extent. Hopefully Biden’s stunt fails.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
No. I would say 5%'ish due to the recent double digit rally.
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I’ll wait till Monday to see where we are. I was at 15% in the market two days ago and thought I had too much cash. Cramer suggested that stocks are going up so yesterday brought some stocks. After Powell announcement, I sold some that I brought yesterday with small losses and now back to 80% cash. At least I see the recent high for stocks and if I buy below that value I should expect it to return to that high, not ATH, within a few months. I guess just trade and don’t buy and hold until the market fall some more. I still don’t expect lower lows than in June but if it does, great I buy at lower prices.
 
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looks like I lowered by Beta just in time and a few of my sells. Will look to buy some on the dip and harvest some tax losses.
 
jtung230 said:
I have about another 20 days before I buy anything back. Need to avoid the wash sale rule to maximize the benefits.
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I took some losses too to offset earlier gains. I'll cap it off at the limit of -$3,000 for capital loss carryover into next year.

It's great with ETF's to essentially buy the same basket of stocks in a different name and essentially write off the losses but remain in a similar position.
 
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rutgersdave said:
I’ll wait till Monday to see where we are. I was at 15% in the market two days ago and thought I had too much cash. Cramer suggested that stocks are going up so yesterday brought some stocks. After Powell announcement, I sold some that I brought yesterday with small losses and now back to 80% cash. At least I see the recent high for stocks and if I buy below that value I should expect it to return to that high, not ATH, within a few months. I guess just trade and don’t buy and hold until the market fall some more. I still don’t expect lower lows than in June but if it does, great I buy at lower prices.
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Very reasonable to expect volatility for a while. Inflation data will continue to head down and sooner rather that later the Feds will catch up with the market.
 
RU-Hunter said:
I took some losses too to offset earlier gains. I'll cap it off at the limit of -$3,000 for capital loss carryover into next year.

It's great with ETF's to essentially buy the same basket of stocks in a different name and essentially write off the losses but remain in a similar position.
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Agreed. Very easy to avoid the wash rule with ETFs and funds. Even broad indexes have plenty of options.
 
Is anyone else surprised at the market reaction today? It's hard to believe that investors would have thought Powell would say anything differently than what he did say.
 
RUAldo said:
Agree…we are in for a bumpy ride. The college loan forgiveness will be counter to Fed’s inflation measures although I have no idea to what extent. Hopefully Biden’s stunt fails.
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You’re forgetting that student loan repayments (for those with balances not wiped out) begin again in January, 2023.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
^^^^^ King of the Bears

Sorry, ATHs within 6-12 months. Inflation is dropping quickly. Don't get left behind.
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No need to apologize. I'll be ok. I promise.

I get a kick out of your approach toward the economy and the market, with your persistent optimism, wherein the sky's the limit. Always. Buy the dip, at every dip.

Me? Having lived through a number of cycles as an investor, and being retired, I take a different approach, grounded in that experience. I've been bullish, and bearish, and neutral, at various times. I've hit the mark, and I've missed the mark. Nonetheless, I've done alright.

Sure, there is money to be made in the months ahead. It just likely won't be as easy as it was over the last decade or so.

So, in the interim, it's prudent to put your dollars to work where they most likely render a sound return, until conditions improve. Adapt. Take what the market gives you. Reach beyond that, and you're itchin' for trouble.

There is a time to be weighted toward the defensive. We're there, methinks.

Good luck, as always.
 
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How high will the yield for 52 week treasury notes and 2 year get by Sept and next year? Will it reach 4%?
 
RU-Hunter said:
Is anyone else surprised at the market reaction today? It's hard to believe that investors would have thought Powell would say anything differently than what he did say.
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Agreed. No surprise with the "tough" talk, but what didn't he say? He didn't make any direct or indirect comments on another 0.75% hike in Sept. The data is screaming to pull back and do 0.50%. And then back to 0.25%'ers after that.

This is just an emotional overreaction that will likely reverse very quickly. Good for a quick trade or for those that didn't catch the bottom in June.
 
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RUinPinehurst said:
No need to apologize. I'll be ok. I promise.

I get a kick out of your approach toward the economy and the market, with your persistent optimism, wherein the sky's the limit. Always. Buy the dip, at every dip.

Me? Having lived through a number of cycles as an investor, and being retired, I take a different approach, grounded in that experience. I've been bullish, and bearish, and neutral, at various times. I've hit the mark, and I've missed the mark. Nonetheless, I've done alright.

Sure, there is money to be made in the months ahead. It just likely won't be as easy as it was over the last decade or so.

So, in the interim, it's prudent to put your dollars to work where they most likely render a sound return, until conditions improve. Adapt. Take what the market gives you. Reach beyond that, and you're itchin' for trouble.

There is a time to be weighted toward the defensive. We're there, methinks.

Good luck, as always.
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Being retired, your short-term money (at least) should be well away from the equity market. That gives you good security and the chance to pick the absolutely best opportunities when they pop-up.

Healthcare and biotech are good plays. Just use a fund or ETF since picking these winners and losers are practically impossible.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
The Man with common sense truth:

View embedded media
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he was sright on energy but he's going to be wrong here. supply chain issues alone will keep inflation elevated. He cited the wrong swap mark, very off on employment I believe. He completely ignored the run off of the fed balance sheet and he's not considered the wealthy generated by the RE mkt despite it's cooling.

This is what happens when you have an equity guy talking economics imho.

bear in mind, I like him
 
RUTGERS95 said:
he was sright on energy but he's going to be wrong here. supply chain issues alone will keep inflation elevated. He cited the wrong swap mark, very off on employment I believe. He completely ignored the run off of the fed balance sheet and he's not considered the wealthy generated by the RE mkt despite it's cooling.

This is what happens when you have an equity guy talking economics imho.

bear in mind, I like him
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Most leading indicators show inflation going down very quickly. Even home prices are starting to tank.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
Most leading indicators show inflation going down very quickly. Even home prices are starting to tank.
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not when you look deep and not to mention, they are not 'coming down very quickly' rather, seem to have stabilized at still very elevated levels. this doesn't include stealth inflation (12.5oz packaging for same price of what 16oz used to be 2yrs ago for example)
 
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