Plus wage growth slowed a little bit too (+0.5% in July vs. +0.2% in August).
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Closed all my call options in the first 2 hours of trading today. Good gain, but not a homerun. One of these monthly job reports will be bad and the stock market will take off.
Nicely done! I also closed some trades before the big reversal. I don't think investors wanted to hold positions going into the long weekend. If your premise on SOXL still holds true, you can load up for next Friday's expiration. The semi's are due for a bounce even if it's just short-term.
I am looking at purchasing some at the close today, but am weary of the theta decay going into the long weekend. Typically this far out, I will purchase far out of the money call options for cheap but today I am not so sure
Hopefully you closed your options for today. If you had bought SOXL outright, you would have lost money, but with options you probably doubled or tripled your money.
No, I bought SOXL outright. Last month, I bought for 11.66 and sold around 19.5'ish. CPI/PPI is going to drop like a rock this month (Sept 13), so I will hold for a bit and be patient.
MASSIVELY oversold market. S&P oscillator should be close to -10% by now. Huge rally coming soon.
this mkt is not oversold so be careful. Fed will continue to raise rates so valuations need to be reassessed. On top of that, we continue to get employment warnings with layoffs and hiring freezes. The quality of jobs openings is deteriorating, housing is turning south and globally we're seeing things begin to cool. Now usually you'd expect pricing power to be in the hands of the consumer but supply chain, global issues, sticky inflation is here for the forseeable future. To say the mkt is oversold is far from accurate and expect further declines as the this mkt was way out in front of the Fed rate hike cycle.
cash is king right now
The market is massively oversold. Sorry, the oscillator doesn’t lie. Inflation is crashing, including the housing market. Now is the time to buy and hold. However, I do respect you more than anyone else in this thread, so I will monitor and be careful. Most of my buying are funds and ETFs, so much less risky.
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Earnings, though, will retreat, perhaps more than expected. So current high valuations will deteriorate swiftly, once reality sets in. There will be buying opportunities, but it may be a bit of a wait.
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500....
Current: 29.41 -0.32 (-1.07%)
4:00 PM EDT, Fri Sep 2
| Mean: | 16.97 | |
| Median: | 15.88 | |
| Min: | 4.78 | (Dec 1920) |
| Max: | 44.19 | (Dec 1999) |
Shiller PE ratio = garbage
Bears have been yelling about earnings for the past 2 Qs and they have held up fine.
Plan accordingly:
markets.businessinsider.com
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed at Jackson Hole that the central bank wouldn't be bringing down rates anytime soon and that sustained tightening of policy is needed to bring down inflation — but that's at odds with what the data is showing, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said in an interview with CNBC this week.
Out of 27 inflation indicators that have been recorded over the past month, 26 have reported below expected figures, Siegel said. Most recently, the Institute of Supply Management's Prices Index clocked in at 60% in July, down 18.5-points from June's 78.5%. That's the fourth largest decline the index has recorded, and the largest slide in manufacturing since the Great Recession.
He added that the CPI typically lags behind real drops in prices and that real estate prices may also be coming down, though that will go unrecorded for some time as well.
"The inflation news is on really on the ground, really coming in really well, and that's why I was shocked when Powell was acting last Friday like things are getting worse and worse and worse," Siegel said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.
Though Siegel had warned the economy had an inflation problem as early as 2020, he's been outspoken in recent months about the Fed's need to slow down its rate hikes, as central bankers risk overtightening the economy. At the September Federal Open Markets Committee meeting last year, half of FOMC members said there was no need to raise rates into 2022, and the most hawkish prediction was a 50-point rate hike, Siegel pointed out. The Fed has hiked the effective federal funds rate by 150 points this year so far.
"So do they really have the ability to see the future? Not really … it was just a year ago that everyone said I'm not even thinking about thinking about raising rates," he said.
Siegel said that central bankers would soon start to slow down the pace of rate hikes as more inflation news data to light, and the Fed only needs to hike another 100 basis points this year before pivoting. The current policy rate is 2.25%-2.5%.
"I don't think they need to go higher than that. And steering the market by saying, 'We're going to stay high through 2023' when they have no idea what's going to be happening in 2023. It was really not a good image to project," he said.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says most inflation data is coming in below expectations and the Fed's hawkish outlook is at odds with economic reality
Inflation looks better than the Fed is admitting, Jeremy Siegel said, noting the Fed hasn't always held firm on its outlook for policy and the economy.
markets.businessinsider.com
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed at Jackson Hole that the central bank wouldn't be bringing down rates anytime soon and that sustained tightening of policy is needed to bring down inflation — but that's at odds with what the data is showing, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said in an interview with CNBC this week.
Out of 27 inflation indicators that have been recorded over the past month, 26 have reported below expected figures, Siegel said. Most recently, the Institute of Supply Management's Prices Index clocked in at 60% in July, down 18.5-points from June's 78.5%. That's the fourth largest decline the index has recorded, and the largest slide in manufacturing since the Great Recession.
He added that the CPI typically lags behind real drops in prices and that real estate prices may also be coming down, though that will go unrecorded for some time as well.
"The inflation news is on really on the ground, really coming in really well, and that's why I was shocked when Powell was acting last Friday like things are getting worse and worse and worse," Siegel said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.
Though Siegel had warned the economy had an inflation problem as early as 2020, he's been outspoken in recent months about the Fed's need to slow down its rate hikes, as central bankers risk overtightening the economy. At the September Federal Open Markets Committee meeting last year, half of FOMC members said there was no need to raise rates into 2022, and the most hawkish prediction was a 50-point rate hike, Siegel pointed out. The Fed has hiked the effective federal funds rate by 150 points this year so far.
"So do they really have the ability to see the future? Not really … it was just a year ago that everyone said I'm not even thinking about thinking about raising rates," he said.
Siegel said that central bankers would soon start to slow down the pace of rate hikes as more inflation news data to light, and the Fed only needs to hike another 100 basis points this year before pivoting. The current policy rate is 2.25%-2.5%.
"I don't think they need to go higher than that. And steering the market by saying, 'We're going to stay high through 2023' when they have no idea what's going to be happening in 2023. It was really not a good image to project," he said.
That does lead one to ask, is the fed jawboning here, or will they once again be behind the curve by continuing to raise rates and keeping rates high even though inflation appears to be abating.Plan accordingly:
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says most inflation data is coming in below expectations and the Fed's hawkish outlook is at odds with economic reality
Inflation looks better than the Fed is admitting, Jeremy Siegel said, noting the Fed hasn't always held firm on its outlook for policy and the economy.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed at Jackson Hole that the central bank wouldn't be bringing down rates anytime soon and that sustained tightening of policy is needed to bring down inflation — but that's at odds with what the data is showing, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said in an interview with CNBC this week.
Out of 27 inflation indicators that have been recorded over the past month, 26 have reported below expected figures, Siegel said. Most recently, the Institute of Supply Management's Prices Index clocked in at 60% in July, down 18.5-points from June's 78.5%. That's the fourth largest decline the index has recorded, and the largest slide in manufacturing since the Great Recession.
He added that the CPI typically lags behind real drops in prices and that real estate prices may also be coming down, though that will go unrecorded for some time as well.
"The inflation news is on really on the ground, really coming in really well, and that's why I was shocked when Powell was acting last Friday like things are getting worse and worse and worse," Siegel said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.
Though Siegel had warned the economy had an inflation problem as early as 2020, he's been outspoken in recent months about the Fed's need to slow down its rate hikes, as central bankers risk overtightening the economy. At the September Federal Open Markets Committee meeting last year, half of FOMC members said there was no need to raise rates into 2022, and the most hawkish prediction was a 50-point rate hike, Siegel pointed out. The Fed has hiked the effective federal funds rate by 150 points this year so far.
"So do they really have the ability to see the future? Not really … it was just a year ago that everyone said I'm not even thinking about thinking about raising rates," he said.
Siegel said that central bankers would soon start to slow down the pace of rate hikes as more inflation news data to light, and the Fed only needs to hike another 100 basis points this year before pivoting. The current policy rate is 2.25%-2.5%.
"I don't think they need to go higher than that. And steering the market by saying, 'We're going to stay high through 2023' when they have no idea what's going to be happening in 2023. It was really not a good image to project," he said.
The market seems to be factoring in .75 in sept, but could a lower than expected CPI open the door to .50?
The answer is:
Yes, yes, and yes
They got crushed with their transitory mistake last year and are trying to act overly tough to compensate. Fed Mester came across like a fool last week. Projecting out 15 months? Yeah right. 12 months ago Mester herself was claiming no rate increases were needed in 2022! LOL.
When this flips it's going to make heads spin (and the market will realize the sea-change well before the Fed announces anything).
Scattered forecasts surfacing of late about a 100 bps increase for Sept. with the Fed end target at 4.25 to 4.5%. Fed committed to a 2% inflation rate. That'll mean aggressive/accelerated increases consistent with those Sept forecasts of 100 bps. We shall see.
Unless CPI comes in hotter then expected, which appears unlikely given what we see "on the ground" as Siegel puts it, I just don't see 1.00. Think .50 is much more likely.
Pretty close forecast .75 vs .50. With another nice drop in the CPI/PPI, look for everyone to settle on .50.
Fed Rate Monitor Tool - Investing.com
Our fed watch tool displays a forecast estimation for fed hikes or cut by the next upcoming FOMC meeting.
Yes. On Aug. 16, he sold 55,013 shares in Bed Bath & Beyond, per Reuters. Then they announced they were closing 150 stores. And laying off 20% of staff.
I look forward to the HBO or NLFX documentary on this entire saga next year.
Speaking of which, can’t wait for this
GameStop Stock Pic ‘Dumb Money’ Sets A-List Cast With Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Sebastian Stan & Pete Davidson; Black Bear To Launch Sales Of Craig Gillespie’s Film At Toronto
Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Sebastian Stan and Pete Davidson are set to star in 'Dumb Money,' Craig Gillespie's GameStop stock pic for Black Bear Pictures.
deadline.com
A Bed Bath & Beyond exec was facing a $1.2 billion “pump-and-dump” stock-fraud suit when he apparently leaped to his death from his swank 18th-floor apartment in Lower Manhattan last week.
Gustavo Arnal, who was the chief financial officer of BBB, is among the defendants named in a class-action suit that accuses him, Chewy.com founder Ryan Cohen and others of artificially inflating the troubled housewares giant’s share price.
Cohen, the chairman of GameStop, came under fire last month for making $68.1 million in profits by unloading a stake in BBB that reportedly included 7.78 million shares and options to purchase another 1.67 million.
Cohen’s lucrative 56% gain came about seven months after he first invested in BBB.
nypost.com
Gustavo Arnal, who was the chief financial officer of BBB, is among the defendants named in a class-action suit that accuses him, Chewy.com founder Ryan Cohen and others of artificially inflating the troubled housewares giant’s share price.
Cohen, the chairman of GameStop, came under fire last month for making $68.1 million in profits by unloading a stake in BBB that reportedly included 7.78 million shares and options to purchase another 1.67 million.
Cohen’s lucrative 56% gain came about seven months after he first invested in BBB.
Bed Bath & Beyond exec Gustavo Arnal faced $1.2B stock suit when he plunged from NYC building
Bed Bath & Beyond executive Gustavo Arnal was facing a “pump-and-dump” stock-fraud suit when he apparently leaped to his death from his Manhattan apartment.
nypost.com
Evidently shareholders would rather liquidate at $10/share than merge at $25/share. Interesting choice. (More likely scenario is people not bothering to vote)
Really thought the market was going up this morning but after my workout, saw it’s down 200 pts. I brought a small amount of AMZN, APPL and GOOG that I sold two weeks ago. My cash exposure is about 93-95% and started buying 3 months-6 months treasuries @ 3%. If after earning season, stocks move down another 8-15%, I ‘m ready to buy. There might be further and final downside in 2023, just hope it’s early 2023. I can’t stand waiting.
Going to make huge profits after the fall hopefully double my money like in 2008.
Going to make huge profits after the fall hopefully double my money like in 2008.
+1
Just need some patience. My fun account will 4x when the market gets back to ATHs. Not sure when it will happen, but it definitely will sooner or later. Hoping for sooner! :)
The math is simple. In times of relatively low volatility and steady upward climb, returns can be close to 3x intended index (such as 2010-2022). In times of greater volatility which is where we are right now and what the article is referring to, the returns will be terrible. That is why I asked the gentleman to state all his lots.
Not sure what to say. I was up 40-45% during the last rally and now back down closer to even. Haven't looked at the account today, but I think TQQQ is flat or maybe slightly down ($27'ish CB). Still up a little with UPRO and URTY. I have been trading SOXL a bit, so that's not a hold.
I will definitely add more if we hit previous lows. Very easy to track performance via Morningstar.
I've done a remarkable about of math/analysis on all the big events since the dot-com crash for both the 3x and 2x funds. The performance of these funds are not what most expect, so I agree that folks need to be careful. However, the time to buy and hold for a bit is during bear markets. Don't mess then them when the market is hitting ATH after ATH.
Why would it matter if markets are at ATH? If the long term future of the market is always higher then the return should always be 3x, right? That is your thesis. Your math/analysis should not change that view? If a stock price today is $100 and you anticipate that it will triple every 7-8 years then what difference does it make that it goes down to $20 in 2 weeks? With your thesis, you should be buying the 3x funds everyday.
Buying on the dip is the way to go (at least for my risk profile). I know the broad indexes will get back to ATHs, just a matter of time. I can calculate the return of this movement. If already at the ATH, I don't have this ability.
However, what you say is generally true. If the market goes up (in general), then the leverage funds will go up as well. Once my ETFs get back to ATHs, I guess I have have some decisions to make!
