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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

T2Kplus20 said:
Better than 0.5% a few months ago, but still pretty crappy. You shouldn't be satisfied. Gotta be using your cash to take advantage of this temporary bear market.
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I don't trust Putin enough to go “all in” on equities. I have one account with MSFT and two non-common equity funds in it and one other small account with two funds in it. Everything else is in 401K accounts and one IRA (fairly high percentage of equities for my age).
 
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T2K…
go away fighting GIF
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Haven't read the details, but ESPN seems to be a fading business. Too much competition with streaming services going for live sports.
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I've said this before in other threads, it's a good cash flow business and that's not changed yet. I said if they ever spun it off I wouldn't be surprised if AMZN or AAPL bought and in the FT article Chapek said they've had a deluge of offers for ESPN and I can believe it.

It's good to have a foot in both worlds...streaming and linear. It's a slow transition not an abrupt change from one to the other. Even look at AMZN, everyone was like online online online but what have they done? They created a physical B&M footprint with WF and other stores. WMT still has its physical footprint and has grown online (nowhere to the level of AMZN but nonetheless). It doesn't have to be all one or the other, it can be both. Meet people where they are to get the greatest coverage.
 
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Market strong into CPI day tomorrow. Consensus is 8.1% YoY. Anything starting with a 7 equals KABOOM. Also, will MoM turn negative? As in, deflationary? We shall see.
 
Based on the last few trading days, I think the market has already baked in an annual rate of less than 8.1% and a sequential monthly decline. However, if we get anything hotter, the market is going to fall dramatically.
 
RU-Hunter said:
Based on the last few trading days, I think the market has already baked in an annual rate of less than 8.1% and a sequential monthly decline. However, if we get anything hotter, the market is going to fall dramatically.
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CPI is a crappy metric that lags quite a bit. However, practically all leading indicators are moving in the right direction, so the math for CPI really should reflect this. We shall see! :)
 
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What to Watch Today​

Economic calendar​

  • 7:00 a.m. ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism, August (90.1 expected, 89.9 during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, August (-0.1% expected, 1.3% during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: CPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: CPI, year-over-year, August (8.1% expected, 8.5% during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: CPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, August (6.1% expected, 5.9% during prior month)
... from Yahoo Finance....
 
RUinPinehurst said:

What to Watch Today​

Economic calendar​

  • 7:00 a.m. ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism, August (90.1 expected, 89.9 during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, August (-0.1% expected, 1.3% during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: CPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: CPI, year-over-year, August (8.1% expected, 8.5% during prior month)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: CPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, August (6.1% expected, 5.9% during prior month)
... from Yahoo Finance....
Click to expand...
Big Money, No Whammy!
 
fastest way to reign in spending is to enact tougher lending standards on unsecured debt. Kill the revolving credit angle will be more effective than rate hikes which take too much time.
 
RUinPinehurst said:
Go ahead. Spin it....

Seriously, though, the ongoing inflation signs were present (are present). All you had to do is step out of the bubble and see for yourself. We have work to do.
Click to expand...
Just saw the report. LOL! What a crock of s. Inflation going up in Aug vs July is comical and non-believable in anyway. 26 of the 27 leading inflation indicators are significantly lower. Too bad government metrics are so bad.

Onwards!
 
I mentioned awhile ago even if inflation peeks and starts coming down, I wouldn't take that as a big positive unless it's coming and coming down to a place that's acceptable. Their inflation target has been 2% and that's like a universe away even 4-5% seems like a world away and that's not a great number either. Market might have rallied on slightly better number but I don't know that it would have been a correct reaction. Inflation is still quite sticky and I don't see big signs of abatement if you actually shop for things. If it were to come down but stops say at 5-6% I don't consider that all that great.

I'll say this it did bounce off that MS target of 3900 (I thought 3800-3850) for a decent rally but I see a revisit on the horizon with these numbers. We'll see if that holds and if not then retest of the June lows might be in the cards.

Very surprised at the utilities too. I've been wanting to add for quite some time but some of them are at ATHs. I would've thought rising rates would have hit them because the yield on them isn't "acceptable" in my mind when rates are rising. In the low rate environment of the last decade plus I get it but now with rates turning I don't know how they still keep going up.
 
I’m not sure I ever remember a time when Wall Street was so split on an issue such as inflation. It’s basically a 50/50 split between reaching ATHs and stock market beat down. Very confusing.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
I mentioned awhile ago even if inflation peeks and starts coming down, I wouldn't take that as a big positive unless it's coming and coming down to a place that's acceptable. Their inflation target has been 2% and that's like a universe away even 4-5% seems like a world away and that's not a great number either. Market might have rallied on slightly better number but I don't know that it would have been a correct reaction. Inflation is still quite sticky and I don't see big signs of abatement if you actually shop for things. If it were to come down but stops say at 5-6% I don't consider that all that great.

I'll say this it did bounce off that MS target of 3900 (I thought 3800-3850) for a decent rally but I see a revisit on the horizon with these numbers. We'll see if that holds and if not then retest of the June lows might be in the cards.

Very surprised at the utilities too. I've been wanting to add for quite some time but some of them are at ATHs. I would've thought rising rates would have hit them because the yield on them isn't "acceptable" in my mind when rates are rising. In the low rate environment of the last decade plus I get it but now with rates turning I don't know how they still keep going up.
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Always comical to see people get scared for little reason, sell and lock in losses. Ready to back up the truck if we retest June lows. Still iffy on that happening.
 
RUAldo said:
I’m not sure I ever remember a time when Wall Street was so split on an issue such as inflation. It’s basically a 50/50 split between reaching ATHs and stock market beat down. Very confusing.
Click to expand...

Dave Brat (Liberty) has been right about everything for months
Because gas prices have been down recently (due to demand destruction) some expected to see inflation down today - that fantasy is over
Others know modern economic theory is a bust and inflation is here to stay - the low interest era is ending
All around the world (total 300 trillion in debt) countries can pay their debt
Sovereign debt cliffs are looming and countries cant pay
US isn't taking in enough money to pay and nobody will lend US money to do things like pay college debt.
Highly leveraged hedge funds have a gun to their head
Margin calls on the way - who will be next Bear Stearns in the next weeks?
"Elites" know what's coming and are building their emergency parachutes.


rumble.com

Dave Brat: America's Elites Created a Sovereign Debt Crisis and Know it

Dave Brat: America's Elites Created a Sovereign Debt Crisis and Know it
rumble.com rumble.com
 
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ashokan said:
Dave Brat (Liberty) has been right about everything for months
Because gas prices have been down recently (due to demand destruction) some expected to see inflation down today - that fantasy is over
Others know modern economic theory is a bust and inflation is here to stay - the low interest era is ending
All around the world (total 300 trillion in debt) countries can pay their debt
Sovereign debt cliffs are looming and countries cant pay
US isn't taking in enough money to pay and nobody will lend US money to do things like pay college debt.
Highly leveraged hedge funds have a gun to their head
Margin calls on the way - who will be next Bear Stearns in the next weeks?
"Elites" know what's coming and are building their emergency parachutes.


rumble.com

Dave Brat: America's Elites Created a Sovereign Debt Crisis and Know it

Dave Brat: America's Elites Created a Sovereign Debt Crisis and Know it
rumble.com rumble.com
Click to expand...
You may want to check my posts from late February/early March. I have been saying this for months. The relief rallies are going to fool a lot of people.
 
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T2Kplus20 said:
Always comical to see people get scared for little reason, sell and lock in losses. Ready to back up the truck if we retest June lows. Still iffy on that happening.
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I’ll agree that if we retest the June lows it’s time to put cash to work because the market will go on a tear.
 
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