I’m already in for the upcoming 13 week treasury auction (3.2% as of yesterday) this week. Will roll that into an Ibond in 2023.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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| Understanding This Table | 3mo | 6mo | 9mo | 1yr | 2yr | 3yr | 5yr | 10yr | 20yr | 30yr+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDs (New Issues) | 3.35% | 3.90% | 3.90% | 4.00% | 4.15% | 4.20% | 4.30% | -- | -- | -- |
BONDS | ||||||||||
| U.S. Treasury | 3.54% | 3.82% | 3.98% | 4.04% | 4.00% | 3.96% | 3.78% | 3.57% | 3.91% | 3.62% |
| U.S. Treasury Zeros | -- | -- | -- | 3.83% | 3.88% | 3.92% | 3.78% | 3.71% | 4.01% | 3.53% |
| Agency/GSE | 2.81% | 3.82% | 4.06% | 4.16% | 4.21% | 4.49% | 4.94% | 4.99% | 4.18% | 4.56% |
| Corporate (Aaa/AAA) | 3.10% | 3.53% | 3.77% | 3.79% | 3.91% | 4.08% | 4.33% | -- | 4.52% | 5.06% |
| Corporate (Aa/AA) | 3.38% | 4.01% | 3.95% | 4.23% | 4.13% | 4.40% | 4.72% | 4.79% | 5.00% | 5.54% |
| Corporate (A/A) | 3.84% | 4.06% | 4.43% | 4.82% | 5.44% | 4.91% | 5.96% | 5.95% | 6.31% | 6.01% |
| Corporate (Baa/BBB) | 4.31% | 4.52% | 4.75% | 5.08% | 6.08% | 6.53% | 7.22% | 6.73% | 6.83% | 7.36% |
| Municipal (Aaa/AAA) | -- | 2.36% | 2.66% | 2.85% | 3.18% | 3.07% | 3.70% | 4.33% | 4.63% | -- |
| Municipal (Aa/AA) | 2.54% | 2.69% | 3.12% | 3.08% | 3.22% | 3.59% | 3.67% | 4.37% | 4.87% | 4.80% |
| Municipal (A/A) | 2.64% | 2.82% | 3.08% | 3.12% | 3.23% | 3.32% | 3.54% | 4.49% | 4.88% | 4.31% |
| Taxable Municipal* | 2.62% | 1.92% | 4.20% | 4.21% | 4.55% | 4.58% | 4.92% | 5.64% | 4.78% | 5.18% |
AS OF 4:58 PM ET 09/20/2022. YIELDS MAY BE DELAYED UP TO 15 MINUTES.
I been buying 3,6,9 mths and 2 years treasuries , about 15% of assets. Will be buying more stocks at 3750, 3600, 3,500 and 3400.
Fed raises rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, pledges more hikes to fight inflation
The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting Wednesday, with markets widely expecting a 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase.
GIS at ATHs up 6%...huge move for a company like that. Beat expectations and raised full year guidance. I wouldn't be surprised if their margins haven't improved despite inflation. Staples sector mostly in the green today.
That's pretty much the nail in the coffin for inflation. It's already going down quickly, with rent data coming in soft a few days ago. Pivot is coming very soon.....which will be called by the market several months before the Fed, so be prepared!Fed raises rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, pledges more hikes to fight inflation
The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting Wednesday, with markets widely expecting a 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase.www.cnbc.com
10y down sharply after the announcement. Clear message for those paying attention.
First of many:
www.cnbc.com
First of many:
Gundlach says the Fed should slow down rate hikes because it is pushing the economy into a recession
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said the Federal Reserve should ease the pace of rate hikes as the economy is on the brink of a recession.
"Pivot?" C'mon, man. This is akin to turning an aircraft carrier at sea. The move is long and slow. We'll get there. It'll happen. But not quickly or crisply.
The carrier is mostly turned already. Sadly, the Fed is using old data and missing the boat (pun intended)!
😁
Hard to bail now I don’t have enough gains left to cover the losses!
Selling covered call options with January expirations to collect premiums while buying Treasuries and CD’s. I have taken my tax losses for the year, so still holding the balance of positions. Not really adding too much to existing positions.
Which small cap nasdaq funds are we talking here?
The Nasdaq is still a double since Jan 2017. The Q’s even moreso.
The FYC a small cap nasdaq fund is up around 67%.
Seems one would be pretty hard pressed to pick a bunch of funds which are flat since 2017.
How long have you been invested in the market? Seems a long termer would have plenty of gains which they would want to preserve.
He is full of sh*t. He either invested in DWAC and has lost all his money or he is making things up to push his extreme right wing agenda.
Anyways ive been selling sqqq puts the last couple weeks. Figured worst case was the market ran up, which would be good for my portfolio, and id get the sqqq which i was considering buying anyway at a cheaper price.
Obviously the market taking a dump is the actual worst case but i do pocket that premium which is something. Might sell next week puts and buy the tqqq puts.
Obviously the market taking a dump is the actual worst case but i do pocket that premium which is something. Might sell next week puts and buy the tqqq puts.
Good point. The moment the market spiked up during the fed announcement today, I bought a lot of put options for the next 2 weeks. I will likely continue to roll the put options as long as I don't see a clear near term catalyst for a change in momentum. We are very likely going to have a bad couple of months.
Ya as i say it would be pretty tough to put together a bunch of funds which are flat in that time frame.
Beginning of Bidens term sure. But not back to Jan 2017.
Good move with the SQQQ. The premium you collect can be used to buy stocks for the long run. I would also look at buying SOXL puts. In a down market, with a strong possibility of recession, the highly cyclical stocks such as semiconductors are the ones to go after.
As a 3x the premiums are solid too.
Not as much upside as holding the sqqq itself(or buying calls). But safer.
I will continue to load up on 3x long plays, when/if they hit new lows. Much easier to deal with. Buy low, be patient, sell when they hit ATHs again. The math is simple and works out very nicely.
I was joking. But my massive gainers like Google, Meta, etc. that I’ve held for close to 10 years have obviously lost some value so I’m not sure I should sell them now just to cover losses. I also sold a bunch of stocks in the past 6 months which explains why i’m seeing so much red now. Anything I’ve bought more recently is down.
Hahaha! Small account I don’t care about. Funds are limited because it’s an annuity. I just picked the three most aggressive funds and threw in a blue chip just because. I have been mostly in cash since February 2022. Go back in this thread and you will see that I posted about it.
remaining in cash until I think market bottoms. With the Dems in charge and Biden selling out to Chyna, I may be in cash for longer than I want to be. But I hope your buy and hold strategy is working out for you. #FJB
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Closed slightly below that 3800-3850 level I mentioned. The longer it stays below that the more likely, we're going down further...no surprise. Retest of the lows definitely possible.
Inflation peaking or coming down isn't the issue IMO, it's how low they want it. If they're serious about the Fed's 2% target, I don't see how you get there without some pain...recession/unemployment going up etc.. A soft landing is practically a unicorn in general anyway, an inflation target that low makes it more difficult.
Inflation peaking or coming down isn't the issue IMO, it's how low they want it. If they're serious about the Fed's 2% target, I don't see how you get there without some pain...recession/unemployment going up etc.. A soft landing is practically a unicorn in general anyway, an inflation target that low makes it more difficult.
S&P 3100-3200. Hopefully holding there then slow crawl up and over for 12 mos.
If that happens, I'm going to mortgage our home. FYI, rapid recovery when the market calls the pivot. Back to ATHs within 3-4 months (just like what happened at the end of the multi-year Volker bear market). Many people will miss most of the rally.
3200 was a place I mentioned awhile back that could be the ultimate low but I'm not sure if we'll get there or not..it's about 33% off the highs. There are support levels before that which could hold, if the prior lows were to break 3500 could offer some support as well and that's about 28% off the highs.
3200 would take you back to where we were pre-pandemic and I have to say I've seen quite a few stock charts which have basically done that.
On another note VZ has broken 40, a little further drop and I'll probably add some. I think interest rates are hitting this one more than they have the staples/utilities. It's got its issues beyond that but I feel like it's become more rate sensitive recently. Dividend was raised recently for the 16th consecutive year and it's above 6.5% and pushing towards 7%.. A hated name but I'm good with holding it for the long haul....contrarian in me lol. INTC is another one that's absolutely hated that I'm wondering about in the mid 20s (20-25 range really). It's at 28 now. Both names are oversold on a long term basis.
I don't expect ATHs but I think it's possible to see a bottom develop in the last qtr of the year. I don't expect a rip roaring rally, rates aren't so low anymore to juice the market to that extent IMO.
Face-ripping rally! :)
At this stage, I am more worried about missing the eventual rally versus missing the absolute bottom.
You don't get the bottom or top for that matter unless you're lucky. You buy slowly on the way down and can sell slowly as things go up as well. That's why I like charts and TA, you have an idea of potential areas to buy or sell while also observing the overall conditions of the market.
Another famous PL quote.....paraphrase.....I have made billions never buying at the bottom or selling at the top.
I don't do the chart/lines thing, but I adjust my buying to the S&P oscillator and any important events. Just can't get over the fact that TA only works because other people think it works. LOL! There is really no man behind the curtain.
Which funds?
Can’t be more aggressive then ARKK which is up a double in that time frame.
I don’t know about face ripper given Powells hawkish forecast but Josh Brown does have a point regarding about the lack of panic in the market. At least for now.
i think we remain choppy until a catalyst to upside or downside comes along.
Isn’t the oscillator a technical analysis of sorts?
