OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I always say take analysts with a grain of salt, especially for stock calls but they do have the power to move stocks and markets especially if the general consensus comes out in one direction or the other.
BAC analyst has had her year end target at 3600 and reaffirmed it. She’s had one of the lower targets on the street and been more hawkish with regards to what the Fed was going to do.
Just saw the CNBC graphic, "Markets in Turmoil"....once they have a special show on it we may be near at least a short term bottom. 😉
Cramer has been really terrible during this…but God bless him…he’s a HODLer at heart. My new mantra is, “The Fed is always wrong 100% of the time and it’s absolutely never right.”
You mean long-term bottom! Political pressure is starting to build.....telling Powell to calm the f down. People know inflation is coming down quickly in the real world, so no need to destroy the economy and hurt lower income people.
Also good indicators (CNBC investing club):
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, our trusted S&P Oscillator indicates that the market is oversold. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey fewest number of bulls in 30 years.
I think someone did an analysis and figured out the Fed is wrong about 90% of the time. I will look for the article. Obviously, the big problem is using painfully lagging metrics.
I added more to BRK.B, HD, CAT and V this morning and yesterday, 5-10 shares all going below 52 weeks. With the slow small purchases, I’ll be ready for 3,400-3,500 in a couple of weeks.
I think I’ll have 30-35% allocation to treasuries, hopefully over 4.5%, and balance 65-70% in stock allocation. I’m about 18-20% in stocks right now. Hopefully, if I do it right, I’ll have my assets to hold for 10-15 years so I never have to look at the stock market again.
I think I’ll have 30-35% allocation to treasuries, hopefully over 4.5%, and balance 65-70% in stock allocation. I’m about 18-20% in stocks right now. Hopefully, if I do it right, I’ll have my assets to hold for 10-15 years so I never have to look at the stock market again.
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Buy and hold! My dad had 4 BRK.A shares since the late 70s. Recently sold 2 while in retirement. I want those other 2 for inheritance! :)
I thought you didn't like V cause of the PE. V/MA are my 2 favorites in that space and I never saw them as fintech, just payment processors. Their PEs are still a little high though. I think 180-185 is an area of support and if that breaks I think 150s after that.
BRK..I mentioned awhile back low 270s IIRC might be an area of support and then I think 220-230s area after that.
NVDA deep into that 115-135 area I thought could be an area of support.
I think 3500 area on the S&P is a possible spot for at least a short term bottom, then see if it holds or not.
Well, V is starting to go well below the 52 week and I’m just building the base. When the market turns this stock is like a rocket ship. I haven’t brought all the financial stocks yet, I got my eye on quite a few. Buying these quality stocks at 52 week low can’t be bad considering most down 35-50%.
Not an expert by any means but I like using it because it gives me potential areas to buy or sell, while also paying attention to specific company fundamentals, the greater macro outlook and overall market conditions.
Don't fight the FED and TINA worked in one direction and now we're seeing it work in the other.
Inflation is the Fed's intended target and priority, per Powell, vowing to "keep at it." And he advises all 'to expect some pain" in due course.
"The Fed's target policy rate is now at its highest level since 2008 - and new projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%."--Reuters.
So we've been informed. Repeatedly. What you choose to do with the info is your decision, of course.
"The Fed's target policy rate is now at its highest level since 2008 - and new projections show it rising to the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of this year and ending 2023 at 4.50%-4.75%."--Reuters.
So we've been informed. Repeatedly. What you choose to do with the info is your decision, of course.
Great day for another round of buying! As usual, will wait to the end of the session.
Two years of stock market gains down the toilet. The Fed is waging war against the middle/upper/rich. I see more Lambos and Ferraris on the road in Northern NJ than ever. Homes in my neighborhood going for $1.3M for a 3300 sqft house when the previous high was like $900K should have been a major warning sign. Money supply spiraled out of control and Fed was talking “transitory” LOL
Well deserved! The line for ripping Powell is getting longer and longer. And it’s even bipartisan. This isn’t going to end well for the Fed.
Fed capitulation coming soon.
Everything he said about Powell made perfect sense. Powell has not done a single thing right. Total buffoon.
Why the hell are they making decisions on LAGGING metrics? They are reacting to where we were 6-12 month ago. The Fed is a joke.
For everyone to enjoy:
Agree with that but no point in crying over spilled milk. Given that what do you think are the odds of a soft landing? I’d say low in the best of circumstances but with a Fed chair who you think is incapable I’d say even lower if not zero and let that guide you for what to do.
This party is over. But there'll be others. As Warren B famously stated, “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.'
I have no confidence in a soft landing. Powell seemed ok with higher unemployment levels. In fact, it's going to take a complete demand destruction to get inflation under control and their only objective is to curtail inflation at all costs (no pun intended).
Thanks for agreeing with my buy and hold principle! :)
The milk is still being spilled. DC pols are starting to complain. This will cause a Fed pivot sooner than expected. Watch for it.
If we have a hard landing, that would mean the Feds when they pivot will have to cut rates fast and significantly which means a fast upturn in the market. It won’t be 10 years to recover. Bad for the people that lose their job but great for investors.
I don’t expect a crazy cutting of rates or QE or any of that sort of stuff without some credit event or freeze up. I’ve seen crypto mentioned as a potential trigger for such events but I still think it’s unlikely.
It’s premature to think about rates cuts and the like while we’re still on rate hike cycle with inflation high. If anything an eventual return to more normalized rates and normalized returns but not a juiced market we’ve seen for the last ten years or so.
At this point, a "rate cut" now would mean only raising 50 BPS instead of 75. That would probably be welcome news at this point!
30 pack of eggs now $9.99 at Monty Shop Rite...was $8.99 last week...was $3.99 in 2019
Inflation is raging and grocery store bills continue to rise
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Always the best measure: get out of the bubble and "see" for yourself. Do not rely on official reports and the pundits/"talking heads." Hear everyone out, sure. But make the effort to see for yourself.
Eggs are the item where I have noticed inflation the most
You can’t even avoid the increase by going to the store brand
Early in the year I switched from some name brand items to store brand and avoided the cost increases but could not do it with eggs
You can’t even avoid the increase by going to the store brand
Early in the year I switched from some name brand items to store brand and avoided the cost increases but could not do it with eggs
Lots of repackaging strategies at work as well, downsizing the boxes/containers and/or lessening the amount of contents ever so slightly while raising the pricing. "Fooling" your customer is never a sound approach to any business model. And yet.....
Even based on the awful lagging CPI, there has been no inflation over the past 2 months. If you expect deflation, there will be some, but most of inflation has been compensated by higher wages, especially with lower income folks.
Just looked at SR's weekly circular.....huge sale on our eggs. Organic Pete & Gerry dozen for $4.99. Normally this is in the high 5's low 6's. Inflation is crashing.
FYI - Eggland's Best 24-pack for $5.49. Plenty of cheap options.
Great price. Life is good! :)
Low income people can’t spend 4.99 for a dozen eggs though
They are looking at the product bac is referencing and that cost is up substantially
