ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Inflation is alive and well. I went shopping at Shop rite today and see the ice pops increases another dollar to $6.00 when there was an increase last year of a dollar. I put off buying the steak at $13.00 pound and waiting for the sale. Everywhere I turn prices increasing but gas down to $3.20. My social security and pension covers my expenses but I see that in 10-20 years the expenses will double. Luckily I have enough that I can live off the earnings from my assets but many will be really living in poverty.

The Feds needs to crush inflation by continuing to increase rates until a hard recession until people are just happy to have a job, don’t complain about wages or going into the office. Everybody asking for more money now. The Fed Governor basically said the same on CNBC this morning.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-Hunter
Inflation is alive and well. I went shopping at Shop rite today and see the ice pops increases another dollar to $6.00 when there was an increase last year of a dollar. I put off buying the steak at $13.00 pound and waiting for the sale. Everywhere I turn prices increasing but gas down to $3.20. My social security and pension covers my expenses but I see that in 10-20 years the expenses will double. Luckily I have enough that I can live off the earnings from my assets but many will be really living in poverty.

The Feds needs to crush inflation by continuing to increase rates until a hard recession until people are just happy to have a job, don’t complain about wages or going into the office. Everybody asking for more money now. The Fed Governor basically said the same on CNBC this morning.
I purchase the same items basically every week or so that I know the swing in the price. I buy Lindy Italian ices and always wait until they are at a certain price

Almost every product has changing prices over the course of the month
 
I purchase the same items basically every week or so that I know the swing in the price. I buy Lindy Italian ices and always wait until they are at a certain price

Almost every product has changing prices over the course of the month
Yes, food inflation is probably the worst aspect that hits everyone. The practical impact of this is that people will cut back on discretionary spending like eating out and pricy vacations.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-Hunter
I got burned basing a decision on selling based on potential taxes. I dont think I will ever make paying taxes on profits a major reason not to take gains again.
It really depends on the decision. Tax is always a big factor for me.
 
I'm going back in

Still think the Fed needs to ramp up their sheet reduction which they have not done. It's the biggest tool in their chest and can't fathom why they haven't.

need to cull the spending and that only happens when revolving credit get's tapped out or tight.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
Inflation is alive and well. I went shopping at Shop rite today and see the ice pops increases another dollar to $6.00 when there was an increase last year of a dollar. I put off buying the steak at $13.00 pound and waiting for the sale. Everywhere I turn prices increasing but gas down to $3.20. My social security and pension covers my expenses but I see that in 10-20 years the expenses will double. Luckily I have enough that I can live off the earnings from my assets but many will be really living in poverty.

The Feds needs to crush inflation by continuing to increase rates until a hard recession until people are just happy to have a job, don’t complain about wages or going into the office. Everybody asking for more money now. The Fed Governor basically said the same on CNBC this morning.
raising rates won't kill the inflation like it used, the demand drivers and overall fundamentals of how rates impact the mkt are much different. 2 things; fed balance sheet and having banks keep more on sheet for revolving debt (which will have them cut limits etc)
 
Yes, food inflation is probably the worst aspect that hits everyone. The practical impact of this is that people will cut back on discretionary spending like eating out and pricy vacations.
Restaurant inflation is where I noticed the most impact. Prices are up but serving sizes are way down.

My wife and I go to dinners the most and you really see the serving size difference. You order something that comes with fries and the fries are way smaller portion than years past
 
  • Like
Reactions: patk89
Good article in Bloomberg about Boaz Weinstein.
My good friend's ex-fiance worked for that guy at Deutsche. All I can say is that she was a real piece of work but made a nice income and didn't spend much. Tried to keep the $50K engagement ring but NY law was on his side. Excellent article and Weinstein has crushed it recently.
 
Inflation is alive and well. I went shopping at Shop rite today and see the ice pops increases another dollar to $6.00 when there was an increase last year of a dollar. I put off buying the steak at $13.00 pound and waiting for the sale. Everywhere I turn prices increasing but gas down to $3.20. My social security and pension covers my expenses but I see that in 10-20 years the expenses will double. Luckily I have enough that I can live off the earnings from my assets but many will be really living in poverty.
They are currently estimating that SS payments will increase by 8.7% in 2023 so that will help you. Realize that it is on a relatively low base. Official number comes out on Oct 13th.
 
Restaurant inflation is where I noticed the most impact. Prices are up but serving sizes are way down.

My wife and I go to dinners the most and you really see the serving size difference. You order something that comes with fries and the fries are way smaller portion than years past
Definitely see it at restaurants and we go out less or even order more take out to reduce cost. It’s tough because the price increases reduces the volume and if they don’t get the mix right then they start losing money. I see one of my old take out restaurants just went out of business.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Joey Bags
No surprise. Interventions don't work. Especially from a weak UK. They don't have the firepower to make a difference.
Gotta love the UK basically pulling a WSB YOLO by announcing tax cuts and QE in the midst of 10% inflation
 
My good friend's ex-fiance worked for that guy at Deutsche. All I can say is that she was a real piece of work but made a nice income and didn't spend much. Tried to keep the $50K engagement ring but NY law was on his side. Excellent article and Weinstein has crushed it recently.
I was on a different desk at DB but on the same floor. The funniest moment with him was when he was announced as the top paid trader on the street on CNBC. We all cheered him on hoping he would lunch.
I do like his explanation about credit spreads. Spot on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: patk89
Definitely see it at restaurants and we go out less or even order more take out to reduce cost. It’s tough because the price increases reduces the volume and if they don’t get the mix right then they start losing money. I see one of my old take out restaurants just went out of business.
Maybe the country will see deflation in our waistlines
 
  • Like
Reactions: FastMJ and patk89
I see all the financial stocks keep going lower, banks, insurance company and brokerage no matter the PE. They are paying decent dividends but are the dividends safe?

I’m thinking about dipping my toe in some more financials. I also decided to get out of some of my stocks with PE greater than 24 yesterday. If APPL and MSFT can’t hold a 24 PE why would any other company?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: FastMJ
Weekly employment was strong again today, so let's hope that prices come down soon. With the 30 year mortgage sitting at 6.86%, there's no doubt that housing prices will come down despite the high demand.
Cruising down the highway’s today and there were still help wanteds all over the place.

in certain sectors at least, there could be a significant technical recession and still no job losses.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: bac2therac
Let's hope we get a favorable August PCE index tomorrow morning. Perhaps, something less than the expected +6.3% year-over-year (-0.1% vs. July) will stop the bleeding in the market, even if it's temporary. The Fed uses this heavily in their decision making.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05
Another anecdotal. Though this one being more negative.

There is a rather successful coffee shop in town that is closing because the rents were being raised.

Supposedly they were looking for a new spot but I don’t know.

Now as a rental property owner im not raising the rents of a good tenant to the point of them moving out but if they can get significantly more from someone else i guess thats capitalism at work.
 
Just had 2 SVP level open recs pulled and now only AVP and junior position open that I'm hiring for. Banks starting to cull the numbers
 
Serious question, Who here is happy with the way this administration is running the country and economy?
 
There appear to be a lot of companies paying above minimum wage right now because there just isn’t enough workers out there. The market will drive it down when unemployment increases.
The tentative rail deal could also increase their wages 24%. Outside of the major pay increase there was a host of reasonable demands.
 
There appear to be a lot of companies paying above minimum wage right now because there just isn’t enough workers out there. The market will drive it down when unemployment increases.
drive it down? it's got a floor, a floor that requires a fixed base on some of inflation we've seen.
 
Brought a small quantity AAPL this morning but expect it to continue downward to close to $129. That’s when I add substantially.
Downgraded by BOA, however upgraded by Rosenblatt. I wonder what happens tomorrow with it.

 
kL5NyfpneSvXkaFa.png
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT