OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Anyone who ever invested significant money into an NFT is a complete moron
Agree to disagree. It’ll be a year in November that I’ve invested in NFTs and I’m up on the S&P in that timeframe. It’s not for everyone but there’s money to be made there.
We never really were… because of strong labor market. (and not a political opinion at all). Given that the US is in a unique position in terms of the type of economy it is and the USD’s place in the world economy, the Fed probably does the 75 bps on Nov 2nd without blinking. Europe is a poop show right now for sure and China probably keeps being China.
The surest way to create an artificial recession is via unnecessary rate hikes. Fed needs to get smarter.
Yeah, it’s not like they bought the rights to David Bowie’s catalog although I see some value in the stuff but at much lower non-bubbly prices (bubble has already burst somewhat on the stuff but transactions were still in the hundreds of millions annually…down from billions, last I checked).
I think if the Fed sees GDP growth for full year 2022 yoy is any kind of positive number (and that now looks likely unless the 4th qtr is a complete disaster for consumers), they’re thrilled and keep hitting the screw with their hammer. They know Big Meat certainly isn’t getting Trust-busted anytime soon.
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Which will cause a recession in early 2023. Time for the Feds to stop being stupid. They are "fighting" inflation that happen 6-12 months ago. Unless they have a time machine, it's time to look forward, not backwards.
I don’t disagree…it’s just that 2% or even 3% seems a bit out of reach for now. And Putin certainly isn’t helping things on the energy front for the foreseeable future while OPEC+ will be meeting soon to agree to cut production. I’m tired of the energy price seesaw myself but it is what it is for now.
That 2-3% is what is happening right now (and probably less) due to commodities and energy tanking. Even housing is down sharply. House prices have been deflationary for the past 2 months and rent inflation is coming down nicely. Seriously, I have to ask. What's the problem? What are they trying to fix now? The Fed is reacting to very old data.
I don't know when it will happen, but the rebound is going to be very quick and many are going to miss it. The market will call the inflation problem over months before the Fed does (just like what happened in 82).
OK, thanks. Your post made it seem like an actual number.
They revised it upward quite a bit at the end of last week as they got more data.
NFT = Ponzi scheme. Seriously, you would be far better off going to a casino and betting on red or black.
Got it. It's the GDPmodel they use. It hasn't been accurate at all.
But assuming that it is at least correct in direction, wouldn't that mean they will continue to hike?
Edit: Just saw you think they will do 75bp.
That GDP model is very volatile, so I wouldn't put too much stock in it.
I certainly think so…75 bps Nov 2…and then 50 in December… basically credit card banks will be hoovering up the equivalent of a lot of the stimulus money people got. Sad really.
NFTs are not a ponzi scheme, they are collectables like baseball card or artwork. The value is in the eye of the beholder.
A note of caution re: the "GDP Model" reported here. It's called "GDP Now." And it's updated again tomorrow, Oct 3. See: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/res...odel estimate for,0.3 percent on September 27.
Yeah. Oct 27 is the “official” first call for quarter. Ain’t nobody got patience for dat…to come out.
Bank earnings start coming out Oct 13-14 and markets will move with the earning projection for 2023, probably the start of another 4-10% drop from the high. Almost all projections so far have been lowered.
Inflation will rule the day, not earnings. Once inflation was tamed in 82, the market increased by 225% for the rest of the decade. Over the same time, earnings only went up 9%. Nobody expects good bank earnings, so misses won't be a surprise.
The value in the eye of this beholder is zero point zero.
https://nevadasagebrush.com/2022/08/28/nfts-are-the-internets-new-favorite-ponzi-scheme/
https://www.bbntimes.com/technology...he-dark-side-of-metaverse-cryptocurrency-nfts
The first terrible aspect of owning an NFT is the fact the buyer does not actually own the NFT. The buyer is the owner of a certificate stating they own a one-of-a-kind digital art piece. Their name appears on the blockchain as proof of their ownership. There is a major flaw with this appeal to art collectors: the art itself is easily replicable.
People online mock NFT owners by simply screenshotting their supposedly “one-of-a-kind” piece. The owner of an NFT doesn’t truly own the piece, just the receipt saying they bought ownership.
What a joke!!!!
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I am sure, most NFTs will end up with no value (which isn't too different from other collectables).
The problem I have with it is the whole concept is asinine. You don't own anything tangible nor any claim to anything tangible. You just have a data point on a blockchain.
I own a little BTC and ETH so I am not a total crypro skeptic, but with the coins at least they are fungible and there is a market with liquidity.
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Pet rock 2.0. Unless a NFT is tied to a physical object it will have little to no value in the future. NFTs epitomize the old saying “there is a sucker born every minute.”
I own very very few “pure art” NFTs. I’m mostly interested in those that provide a utility and/or a revenue share type mechanism. In theory it’s no different than a stock. Back to your original comment, I’ve put money into it and am far from a complete moron.
House always wins in a casino. I’d rather own an nft that gives me a share of an online casino. Fun fact- I do
Do you have an example? Sounds like an unregulated security and I bet the SEC will be shutting these down
https://genesysgo.com/：Solana
Their NFT emits tokens (13k over the course of a year), the tokens are used to pay for storage fees via their servers, making it a utility coin vs a security.
There are thousands of shit projects out here, I get it. Heard every pet rock, tulip argument there is and they aren’t wrong. There’s also several projects with legitimate founders consulting law firms, having to pass though VC hoops and constantly asking if they pass the Howey test. Most won’t make it, some will.
inventory buildup is not being watched as closely as it should
Fed will have to capitulate on rate hikes given world issues to strong dollar
only real thing the Fed can do is restrict lending, increase balance sheet reserves for banks and kill their own balance sheet aggressively as these are the only things that will kill inflation while not destroying the global economy. The dollar issues are getting started. Expect the Fed to meet soon to discuss
CS and DB cds are like sirens right now. Remember, Europe imploding hits us and China hard
Fed will have to capitulate on rate hikes given world issues to strong dollar
only real thing the Fed can do is restrict lending, increase balance sheet reserves for banks and kill their own balance sheet aggressively as these are the only things that will kill inflation while not destroying the global economy. The dollar issues are getting started. Expect the Fed to meet soon to discuss
CS and DB cds are like sirens right now. Remember, Europe imploding hits us and China hard
The Fed is having an emergency meeting tomorrow. No indication of what it is about.
My guess is that it's about Britain/European sovereign debt/pension issues.
I saw that on Twitter earlier and I believe the “emergency” nature of it was debunked. They have had closed door unscheduled meetings on almost a monthly basis lately
I saw that too, but this one seems different to me. I think the political pressure is going to get turned up on Powell. We'll see if he can handle it.
And it's bipartisan political pressure. Powell is pissing everyone off with his over-the-top actions.
